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The 2020 Presidential Race

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26 minutes ago, Melody said:

I wonder what about it appeals to him?  Any ideas?

 

We really don’t know.  He will research the shows and the hosts on Wikipedia.  When he was very young the first time we realized something was sticking mentally with him was when we noticed our refrigerator magnets.  They were lined up to say “Fox 2 news”, which is our local affiliate... and Oprah. My sister would watch both when over here with him.  He doesn’t even watch it.  He just wants it on whole he watches movies or shows on his iPad. A comfort thing.  He will scroll ahead on the guide and see what’s coming up next. He records the daytime weekend shows so he can fast forward or rewind at leisure.  

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I can see on the state website that my ballot was received today. I don’t believe I got an email. 
 

I was pretty lazy about returning it earlier, although the process to do so took 5 minutes. I was trying to take it directly to the clerk rather than use a dropbox but I kept forgetting to make time for it (having a kid schooling from home and a wife that is frequently on a job site for work made it difficult to head out during business hours).

Anyway, feels good to know it was tracked and received.

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1 hour ago, tiger337 said:

Fox news was optimistic about the Republican candidate in 2008 and 2012 too.  It means nothing.  

Maybe we'll see Karl Rove running around the Fox studio demanding answers from random employees as swing state after swing state falls.

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51 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

Using the 538 model and some Bayes Rule calculations, the chances that each state votes for the winner:

 

Pennsylvania 94%
Wisconsin 93%
Michigan 93%
Minnesota 91%
New Mexico 91%
Colorado 90%
Nevada 89%
Oregon 89%
California 89%
Connecticut 89%
Delaware 89%
Hawaii 89%
Maryland 89%
Massachusetts 89%
New Jersey 89%
New York 89%
Rhode Island 89%
Vermont 89%
Virginia 89%
Washington 89%
New Hampshire 87%
Maine 86%
Florida 79%
Arizona 76%
North Carolina 74%
Georgia 68%
Ohio 57%
Texas 49%
Iowa 49%
Montana 25%
Alaska 25%
South Carolina 19%
Mississippi 18%
Missouri 17%
South Dakota 16%
Indiana 15%
Utah 15%
Kansas 14%
Louisiana 14%
Tennessee 14%
Alabama 13%
North Dakota 13%
Arkansas 11%
Idaho 11%
Illinois 11%
Kentucky 11%
Nebraska 11%
Oklahoma 11%
West Virginia 11%
Wyoming 11%

Does your model really have Illinois going for Trump?

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I remember thinking 2012 would go for Romney.  I read conservative twitter accounts.  It was my first exposure or realization of the echo chamber.  The pro Romney stuff made sense.  Then they called PA at 8 pm and I knew it was all a sham. 

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15 minutes ago, Shelton said:

I can see on the state website that my ballot was received today. I don’t believe I got an email. 
 

I was pretty lazy about returning it earlier, although the process to do so took 5 minutes. I was trying to take it directly to the clerk rather than use a dropbox but I kept forgetting to make time for it (having a kid schooling from home and a wife that is frequently on a job site for work made it difficult to head out during business hours).

Anyway, feels good to know it was tracked and received.

Chicago Board of Election has a good verification system.

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19 minutes ago, Oblong said:

I remember thinking 2012 would go for Romney.  I read conservative twitter accounts.  It was my first exposure or realization of the echo chamber.  The pro Romney stuff made sense.  Then they called PA at 8 pm and I knew it was all a sham. 

Honestly, it's not at all unlike four years ago either. There were a lot of red flags leading up to Election Day (Hillary being tied in PA, her never reaching much beyond 45-46 percent in any swing state, the high number of undecideds), but I think the notion of "there's no way Trump can ACTUALLY win" kinda was a blind spot for a lot of folks (present company included).

Not doing that again.... the fundamentals look a lot better for Biden than they did for Clinton four years ago, but it ain't over until the votes counted and the numbers are on Kornacki's big board.

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13 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Honestly, it's not at all unlike four years ago either. There were a lot of red flags leading up to Election Day (Hillary being tied in PA, her never reaching much beyond 45-46 percent in any swing state, the high number of undecideds), but I think the notion of "there's no way Trump can ACTUALLY win" kinda was a blind spot for a lot of folks (present company included).

Not doing that again.... the fundamentals look a lot better for Biden than they did for Clinton four years ago, but it ain't over until the votes counted and the numbers are on Kornacki's big board.

I went to bed early, but remember asking my husband when he came to bed who won. My reaction was, “You are KIDDING!”  

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21 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Honestly, it's not at all unlike four years ago either. There were a lot of red flags leading up to Election Day (Hillary being tied in PA, her never reaching much beyond 45-46 percent in any swing state, the high number of undecideds), but I think the notion of "there's no way Trump can ACTUALLY win" kinda was a blind spot for a lot of folks (present company included).

Not doing that again.... the fundamentals look a lot better for Biden than they did for Clinton four years ago, but it ain't over until the votes counted and the numbers are on Kornacki's big board.

I remember the day before the election I believe it was when Hillary had cancelled the fireworks her campaign ordered for election. I got the feeling something may have been up then. 

The first red flag was probably much earlier when Bernie Sanders won Michigan in the primary. 

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59 minutes ago, Oblong said:

We really don’t know.  He will research the shows and the hosts on Wikipedia.  When he was very young the first time we realized something was sticking mentally with him was when we noticed our refrigerator magnets.  They were lined up to say “Fox 2 news”, which is our local affiliate... and Oprah. My sister would watch both when over here with him.  He doesn’t even watch it.  He just wants it on whole he watches movies or shows on his iPad. A comfort thing.  He will scroll ahead on the guide and see what’s coming up next. He records the daytime weekend shows so he can fast forward or rewind at leisure.  

My father watches Fox News all the time.  He really doesn't have any political leaning at all and just randomly flips from channel to channel until he sees something that looks interesting which is usually either an old movie or Fox News.  There is something about the channel that attracts him.  If I switch it to CNN or MSNBC, he'll watch it for a while and then end up back on FoxNews.  He is very visual, so maybe it's the graphics or maybe the personalities are more exciting.  I don't know.  

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Reports here of various stores starting to board up windows, “as a precaution,” ahead of the election.  I can’t imagine anyone going to Eastchase to riot and loot the Ross store, but they are among them.  (Strip shopping center in the suburbs.)

Crazy times. 

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15 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

 

My father watches Fox News all the time.  He really doesn't have any political leaning at all and just randomly flips from channel to channel until he sees something that looks interesting which is usually either an old movie or Fox News.  There is something about the channel that attracts him.  If I switch it to CNN or MSNBC, he'll watch it for a while and then end up back on FoxNews.  He is very visual, so maybe it's the graphics or maybe the personalities are more exciting.  I don't know.  

Is it possible it's because the colors pop more and the font sizes for the crawl are bigger?

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2 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Is it possible it's because the colors pop more and the font sizes for the crawl are bigger?

That could be.  He is practically deaf, so visuals are very important.  His sight is starting to fade too, so big font is good for him.  

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1 hour ago, chasfh said:

Does your model really have Illinois going for Trump?

nope, that was a mistake.

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4 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

That could be.  He is practically deaf, so visuals are very important.  His sight is starting to fade too, so big font is good for him.  

Makes sense. a high percentage of Fox viewers are in a similar situation to your dad.

Separately, I was wondering the same for Oblong's son as well.

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2 minutes ago, ROMAD1 said:

watching Hamilton tonight...seems very appropriate 

Use closed caption - you want to catch the words, and both the dialogue and songs are very fast and “wordy”. 

Enjoy. I thought it was fantastic, and when the day comes that live theater is back, I might take a loan to get a ticket. 🙂

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4 minutes ago, smr-nj said:

Use closed caption - you want to catch the words, and both the dialogue and songs are very fast and “wordy”. 

Enjoy. I thought it was fantastic, and when the day comes that live theater is back, I might take a loan to get a ticket. 🙂

this is one of several viewings and a summer of listening to the soundtrack with my kids. 

priority post Covid is a trip to NYC and a live viewing

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