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The 2020 Presidential Race

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45 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

I propose Michigan make an alliance with Canada and be added as a province. 

You guys can join New England as an independent country.  New Hampshire might not like it, but we can send them to Kentucky or West Virginia.  They'll be fine.  

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32 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

I like eleven. Eleven is good.

( now somebody tell me what movie I remember that from? - EDIT: Keitel and Tarantino discussing furniture in Pulp Fiction maybe?)

“I’m an oak man myself”

”oak... oak is good”. 

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As I have told you all many times my son insists on Fox News being on.  They are really optimistic. I’m not saying that to be pollyannish but just for humor. They think the polls are trending towards DT. I guess that’s true if you just look at 2

i am too superstitious to make a prediction. 

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1 minute ago, Oblong said:

As I have told you all many times my son insists on Fox News being on.  They are really optimistic. I’m not saying that to be pollyannish but just for humor. They think the polls are trending towards DT. I guess that’s true if you just look at 2

i am too superstitious to make a prediction. 

Ironically, one of those polls they don't believe is the Fox News poll. 

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How would you rank Senate seat flips?

Arizona, Colorado, Maine, Iowa,  Georgia. (2), SC.... am I missing any?  AL is flipping the other way , right? 

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Just now, Oblong said:

How would you rank Senate seat flips?

Arizona, Colorado, Maine, Iowa,  Georgia. (2), SC.... am I missing any?  AL is flipping the other way , right? 

Colorado and Arizona seem to be a lock. You need to add North Carolina. I would slot it right around Maine. I would add Alaska as a potential flip. Montana is a possibility. Alabama is almost a guaranteed loss. 

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1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

They've played it a bunch during Fox 4 in the morning.... (generally the only time of the day I watch local news)

Explains it.  We are retired and no kids at home.  We don't do morning here.  LOL

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18 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Ironically, one of those polls they don't believe is the Fox News poll. 

Trafalgar is the best.  

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44 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Betcha those are the races he’s really trying to affect. 

Presuming, "he" is that conservative activist rich dude?  No doubt.   Houston proper is a very blue city, but the more outlying communities are pretty red for the most part.

I've noticed that while the national parties try to make hay over various voting irregularities or disputes, they actually have tended to be more locally focused.   County level candidates and so forth trying to gain an advantage.

 

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Fox news was optimistic about the Republican candidate in 2008 and 2012 too.  It means nothing.  

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I remember this one friend I had on Facebook during 2012 was so confident that Romney was going to win that he said mail is being sent to the White House address to President Romney. After Obama won, I wrote returned to sender under that post and he unfriended me. 

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No one seems to be biting on what essentially are the same rumors as a few months ago, but with Trump's apparent belief that he can win over African Americans, does Trump announce a pardon or sentence commute for Kwame at his Michigan rally's tonight?

It's just the type of thing I could see Trump believing could flip Michigan, yet IMO, assure a Biden win here.

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1 minute ago, ewsieg said:

No one seems to be biting on what essentially are the same rumors as a few months ago, but with Trump's apparent belief that he can win over African Americans, does Trump announce a pardon or sentence commute for Kwame at his Michigan rally's tonight?

It's just the type of thing I could see Trump believing could flip Michigan, yet IMO, assure a Biden win here.

Kwame's sister is claiming that he is going to be released this week so maybe so. 

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Using the 538 model and some Bayes Rule calculations, the chances that each state votes for the winner:

 

Pennsylvania 94%
Wisconsin 93%
Michigan 93%
Minnesota 91%
New Mexico 91%
Colorado 90%
Nevada 89%
Oregon 89%
California 89%
Connecticut 89%
Delaware 89%
Hawaii 89%
Illinois 89%
Maryland 89%
Massachusetts 89%
New Jersey 89%
New York 89%
Rhode Island 89%
Vermont 89%
Virginia 89%
Washington 89%
New Hampshire 87%
Maine 86%
Florida 79%
Arizona 76%
North Carolina 74%
Georgia 68%
Ohio 57%
Texas 49%
Iowa 49%
Montana 25%
Alaska 25%
South Carolina 19%
Mississippi 18%
Missouri 17%
South Dakota 16%
Indiana 15%
Utah 15%
Kansas 14%
Louisiana 14%
Tennessee 14%
Alabama 13%
North Dakota 13%
Arkansas 11%
Idaho 11%
Kentucky 11%
Nebraska 11%
Oklahoma 11%
West Virginia 11%
Wyoming 11%

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48 minutes ago, Oblong said:

As I have told you all many times my son insists on Fox News being on.  They are really optimistic. I’m not saying that to be pollyannish but just for humor. They think the polls are trending towards DT. I guess that’s true if you just look at 2

i am too superstitious to make a prediction. 

I wonder what about it appeals to him?  Any ideas?

 

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50 minutes ago, Oblong said:

How would you rank Senate seat flips?

Arizona, Colorado, Maine, Iowa,  Georgia. (2), SC.... am I missing any?  AL is flipping the other way , right? 

rank as in likely to happen?

alabama

colorado

arizona

maine

georgia

iowa

south carolina (lindsay aint losin)

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38 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

Fox news was optimistic about the Republican candidate in 2008 and 2012 too.  It means nothing.  

and stunned in surprise when the Republican lost in 2012. 

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4 hours ago, Edman85 said:

I am among the 37.9% and know several others in my shoes who didn't vote for the person you would think. Closed primaries do funny things.

 

I think these numbers are largely meaningless.

You're right.... it's gonna come down to NPAs and which party has more people who break for the other candidate (ie. The Never Trumpers versus the Dixiecrats).

My only other thought on Florida is that, for basically the past two weeks, the only county that people seem to talk about is Miami Dade. And to be sure, Biden running behind Clinton there could be determinative, but there are a whole bunch of other counties north of Miami, and the same dynamics that may exist there may not be at play in other places (ie. Palm Beach, Broward, I-4 corridor, Jacksonville)

It's gonna be close, because it's Florida and it's untrustworthy. Enough said.

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21 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Mine is Black Lives Matter will vaccinate our savior Donald Trump. 

Windmill Cancer ban Our Savior Donald J Trump

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Speaker Pelosi is being blunt.

She needs to be blunt and say that if he drags things out past Jan 21, then she will be President. 

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1 hour ago, Oblong said:

How would you rank Senate seat flips?

Arizona, Colorado, Maine, Iowa,  Georgia. (2), SC.... am I missing any?  AL is flipping the other way , right? 

Per 538, Senate flip probability in order:

  1. Alabama 86%
  2. Colorado 84%
  3. Arizona 78%
  4. North Carolina 64%
  5. Maine 57%
  6. Iowa 49%
  7. Georgia 41%
  8. Georgia Special 38%
  9. Montana 32%
  10. Alaska 23%
  11. Kansas 22%
  12. South Carolina 21%
  13. Michigan 18%
  14. Texas 14%
  15. Mississippi 13%

 

 

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