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chasfh

The 2020 Presidential Race

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 The debate tonight is the first official election event, basically kicking off the 2020 presidential race, so this thread has been created to focus discussion on it here.

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I'll start: I don't know who I want to be president yet.

I know I stumped for Elizabeth Warren eight years ago, but that was before the presidency was a twinkle in her eye. (Or maybe it was, I don't know.) I still like where she is coming from on things, and that she has a plan in mind to get there, but I just wonder what the level of cooperation would be if she actually won, even in her own party.

Plus, there are way too many D candidates right now. I know some of the current crop don't stand a snowball's chance, but I'm not sure in practical terms, of those who remain, I'd want to throw my support behind yet. Gun to head, probably Pocahontas still.

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Pocahontas seems like the one candidate with a vision beyond "we must beat the douchebag".   Beating the douchebag is the number one goal, but they can't campaign that way.  She has a plan and I agree with her on most issues.  I still think she wouldn't do well in a national election though.

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I fear you're right, but then again, November 2020 is light years away in the current political climate, so who knows by then.

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I'm going to watch, wait, and see what happens.  Odds are the political landscape will have a significantly different outlook a year from now.

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I think the DNC rules for qualification for the September debates means there is going to be a lot of pressure on the 2>% crowd to make some waves. As well as some candidates who have underperformed expectations so far (such as O'Rourke or Klobuchar).

That's a lot of what I'm looking at so far... the folks paying attention thus far are mostly focused on the current top six candidates (ie. Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, Harris, O'Rourke), and I'm curious to see if any of the others are able to make a good case or have a viral moment to break out of the bottom.

Of the big dogs, I think Buttigieg has the biggest challenge ahead of him, given the issues he has had in South Bend in recent days. A bad performance could really hurt him.

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6 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Of the big dogs, I think Buttigieg has the biggest challenge ahead of him, given the issues he has had in South Bend in recent days. A bad performance could really hurt him.

Agreed.  Out of all the participants deemed to a chance of nomination at the moment, Buttigieg has the most to lose...and gain....at the first town hall / debate.

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If Beto is a top six, then maybe the field is practically smaller than I thought, because I haven’t heard boo about him for months. 

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26 minutes ago, chasfh said:

If Beto is a top six, then maybe the field is practically smaller than I thought, because I haven’t heard boo about him for months. 

Point well taken... six was purely subjective number, because really, the only five candidates who are consistently above 5% are Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg and Harris.

I find the group between the bottom and the top  (ie. O'Rourke, Booker, Klobuchar) to be hard to classify because they theoretically have a better chance of breaking through than the bottom tier, yet their polling numbers are not much higher than the bottom tier either.

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I think the early money has to be on Biden and Harris, with Bernie a dark horse. 

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1 hour ago, chasfh said:

I think the early money has to be on Biden and Harris, with Bernie a dark horse. 

I think Warren is the dark horse. Sanders might be the 2020 version of Rick Santorum

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6 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I think Warren is the dark horse. Sanders might be the 2020 version of Rick Santorum

Primary voters tend to be people who have more of an attachment to a party - I still have trouble seeing how Bernie gets Democratic party members to vote for him this time around. He may do well in the polls with 'likely voters' etc, but if you are an actual Dem what is the attraction? Against Hillary he was the only game if you didn't like Clinton. In this field there are plenty of 'real' dems offering anything Bernie is. As a person who has basically moved in to the Dem camp in recent years, I have no motivation at all to give a vote to Bernie after he refused to join the party after 2016.

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Bernie is the Ron Paul equivalent. He’s got his ceiling. 

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34 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

Primary voters tend to be people who have more of an attachment to a party - I still have trouble seeing how Bernie gets Democratic party members to vote for him this time around. He may do well in the polls with 'likely voters' etc, but if you are an actual Dem what is the attraction? Against Hillary he was the only game if you didn't like Clinton. In this field there are plenty of 'real' dems offering anything Bernie is. As a person who has basically moved in to the Dem camp in recent years, I have no motivation at all to give a vote to Bernie after he refused to join the party after 2016.

I've kind of moved away from Bernie as well. I hate hearing how the DNC is rigged against him when he's only a Democrat when he wants to run for president. 

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Bernie has a lot of Trump in him too in that when he loses, he will probably cry illegitimacy. 

I know this because he broke out the "some people are saying..." line today about just that 

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Castro trying hard to interject himself into a debate about a bill with Beto, and showing off how he’s memorized section numbers of the bill. Probably the most entertaining part of this town hall so far. 

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If young people continue to vote in large numbers as they did in 2018, Sanders has a chance.  Of course, unlike 2016 there are other candidates, they might turn to as well. 

I don't think Biden is going to get the nomination.  A lot of people who don't normally follow politics are getting excited and I think they want change.  

My early pick for a break out candidate is Harris.  I don't especially like or dislike her so far, but I think she has a presence can potentially appeal to the masses.     

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1 hour ago, Oblong said:

Bernie is the Ron Paul equivalent. He’s got his ceiling. 

With such a wide field, someone can win with a ceiling.  We saw that with Trump in 2016.  

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Anything juicy with the hot mike incident. Twitterers are citing Naked Gun, did they catch audio of somebody relieving themselves?

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I've been a fan of Beto for a while, he nearly pulled off the upset last year, but he's not ready for primetime.

Castro, Klobuchar and Booker having good nights. Warren did what she had to do as well

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2 minutes ago, screwball said:

I have a horse.

I'm in love with Tulsi.

Yo go girl!

No wonder you don't care about Russian interference. 

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I think Warren did the best overall tonight, if a little too quiet in the second hour. I thought Julian Castro impressed as well, which I didn't expect.

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9 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

I think Warren did the best overall tonight, if a little too quiet in the second hour. I thought Julian Castro impressed as well, which I didn't expect.

Warren will do well technically in all debates.  She is smart and prepared.  Her problem is lack of charisma.  She sounds like a professor.   

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