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What Will Become of Nicholas Castellanos?

How will the Tigers deal with Nicholas Castellanos?  

37 members have voted

This poll is closed to new votes
  1. 1. How will the Tigers deal with Nicholas Castellanos?

    • Trade him.
      21
    • Tender him a Qualifying Offer after the season, which he will accept.
      2
    • Tender him a Qualifying Offer after the season, which he will decline.
      3
    • Extend him for multiple seasons.
      0
    • Non-tender him after the season (aka let him walk).
      11
    • Other. (Explain in comments.)
      0
  2. 2. Suppose Castellanos is tendered a qualifying offer after the season and he declines it? Then what?

    • Will be re-signed afterward by the Tigers.
      3
    • Will be signed by another team before the 2020 draft.
      10
    • Will be signed by another team after the 2020 draft.
      24
  3. 3. If the Tigers do trade Castellanos, what kind of return will they get, based on what you think a player of his level should get?

    • Return equal to expectations.
      8
    • Higher return than expected.
      0
    • Lower return than expected.
      29

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  • Poll closed on 07/12/2019 at 04:59 AM

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11 minutes ago, LooseGoose said:

If the leader was incompetent the rest of the team might have been very competent yet simply overruled.

Is that what we’ve come to realize the past four years?

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13 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Is that what we’ve come to realize the past four years?

I'm not firmly on the competent or incompetent bandwagon yet, I feel the guy should be given a chance to execute his plan.  If the pitching heavy approach fails I'll be all for firing him before the 2nd rebuild.

I once started a business with 3 other people.   The business was based on a very specific plan.  About 1/2 way through a couple of them got cold feet, dragged their feet on following through with commitments and we never carried the plan out.   Obviously the business failed.  It rankled me forever after that they wanted to blame me for the failure when they had in essence never given the thing a chance to succeed as we planned.  This was nearly 30 years ago but still fresh in my mind as I've periodically read stories of success that literally could have been us.

I know that's the long version but I feel Avila deserves to see this through until it succeeds or fails.   What should be done with him and his team will be very apparent then.   If someone asked me for a timeline I'd say the tearing down is about done.   The re-stocking is well underway.   Now it just needs time to ripen and bear fruit.   So I think an informed and fair decision can be made in '21.

 

 

 

 

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2022 is more fair.. We have to assume that once the kids get here they will struggle awhile.

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I don’t think Avila is anything special. I don’t think he’s incompetent (yet). I’d be fine if they hired someone else to take the job. 

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5 hours ago, LooseGoose said:

I'm not firmly on the competent or incompetent bandwagon yet, I feel the guy should be given a chance to execute his plan.  If the pitching heavy approach fails I'll be all for firing him before the 2nd rebuild.

I once started a business with 3 other people.   The business was based on a very specific plan.  About 1/2 way through a couple of them got cold feet, dragged their feet on following through with commitments and we never carried the plan out.   Obviously the business failed.  It rankled me forever after that they wanted to blame me for the failure when they had in essence never given the thing a chance to succeed as we planned.  This was nearly 30 years ago but still fresh in my mind as I've periodically read stories of success that literally could have been us.

I know that's the long version but I feel Avila deserves to see this through until it succeeds or fails.   What should be done with him and his team will be very apparent then.   If someone asked me for a timeline I'd say the tearing down is about done.   The re-stocking is well underway.   Now it just needs time to ripen and bear fruit.   So I think an informed and fair decision can be made in '21.

This a fair and eloquent plea, and you're going to get your wish: Avila is going to get every chance to succeed or fail, and if my guess is worth anything, he'll last way past '21.

My main reply is that a competent management team wouldn't draft so consistently badly for decades on end, finally competing mainly by spending big money and prospects to get good players on board, then allow the team in Detroit to fall into such disrepair, with so little respect for their fan base that they don't even go through the pretense of trying to put a decent team on the field while they are going through their version of rebuilding. I'm not saying we're the only franchise who does that—we're most definitely not—and I'm not saying we're the worst franchise in Baseball—I certainly wouldn't rather be an Orioles or Marlins fan—but I am saying a good franchise isn't a franchise that does that.

One can point to the Astros and say, there's a franchise that lost up to 111 games a season for years, and look at them, they're on top of the world. Why can't that be us? In a world where anything is possible, sure it could be us, why not. The difference at hand is that the ownership and management that oversaw losing all those games inherited an organizational mess from the McClanes in 2011. They had to blow it all up to start over with their own philosophy. Here, we have the same ownership and management who steered the ship into the rocks tasking themselves with the job of getting us out and on top, and by the way, they'll be using the same drafting, talent assessment and development strategies they've been using for the almost 30 years they've been here. Because, you know, it worked once. Kind of.

Some may hypothesize that Dave Dombrowski must have been a kind of tyrant boss who demanded everything be done 100% his way or else, who designed the strategy that got us to where we are, and now that he's gone his lieutenants are free to do it the way they want. I'm not buying that. My hypothesis is that every man in that office charged with executive decision-making were all on the same page about the strategy that got us here, and they're using essentially the same strategy hoping it will get us out.

I think that one of the two worst things we have done so far is to put all our eggs in the pitching basket for the last several years, instead of drafting evenly among top pitchers and position players, so that they can matriculate to the team at roughly the same time. Instead, even if all of the pitchers in whom we're pinning all our hopes reach Detroit as an above average pitching corps, we don't have the above average position players coming up with them to support them. So again, we will have to find a way to spend money (or trade our remaining prospects!) to bring some on board when those pitchers are in their prime, or else rely on the likes of Jeimer Candelario, Jake Rogers, Christin Stewart, Daz Cameron and Isaac Paredes—all of whom project to between 50 (Avg Everyday Player) and 40 (Bench Player) in future value—to grow beyond expectations and become the powerhouse lineup to take us back to the playoffs. This all reminds me of the Drumright-Greisinger-Anderson-Weaver drafts—also under Ilitch, probably not coincidentally—that we were sold as being the rotation of the early 2000s world champion Tigers. How'd that end up working out?

The other worst thing is that the Tigers have completely ignored the international market, not only the Dominican and Venezuela, but Asia and Cuba as well. A third of the top 100 prospects in baseball are international free agents; the Tigers have none of them. Nine of our 30 top prospects are internationals. We signed five of them, but only one as late as 2016. The other four have been in the system for seven or eight years and are bubbling between 20 and 30 on the list. Four of our top five internationals, we traded for. It's great that they're in the system, but we had to liquidate All-Stars to get them, and it reflects poorly on our ability to build a solid prospect base from that market. And do you remember our one and only Japan player signing? So unsuccessful, we've never signed another one since. Never signed a Cuban player in the last decade, either. Our international strategy can't continue to ignore such players except to trade for them, if we're serious about working to become a consistently good franchise.

And on top of all this, this front office has signed off on a strategy that includes being one of the worst teams in baseball for at least five years running, including the next three years, to achieve this objective.

This is the track record of the administration currently in place.

I wish I could set all that aside and just be optimistic.

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8 minutes ago, chasfh said:

And on top of all this, this front office has signed off on a strategy that includes being one of the worst teams in baseball for at least five years running, including the next three years, to achieve this objective.

I would hope that we see year over year improvements so this isn't true.

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A baseball front office isn’t a one man operation. Considering Dave’s other responsibilities, ones he doesn’t have in Boston today, I suspect Al Avila was almost a co GM compared to his peers.  

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I hope, too. Hope isn’t necessarily optimism, though. 

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15 minutes ago, Oblong said:

A baseball front office isn’t a one man operation. Considering Dave’s other responsibilities, ones he doesn’t have in Boston today, I suspect Al Avila was almost a co GM compared to his peers.  

Really good point. I’m sure a huge part of Dave’s job was managing the old man. 

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3 hours ago, LooseGoose said:

I would hope that we see year over year improvements so this isn't true.

Last year and the year before: 64 wins.

This year: On pace for 60 wins (and they haven't traded away their desirable Major League assets yet).

I'm hoping for year to year imrovements, too.  But I have no confidence that that trend will start any time soon.

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1 hour ago, six-hopper said:

Last year and the year before: 64 wins.

This year: On pace for 60 wins (and they haven't traded away their desirable Major League assets yet).

I'm hoping for year to year imrovements, too.  But I have no confidence that that trend will start any time soon.

In fairness, improvements wouldn't be expected whilst tearing down.  If Nick and Greene are dealt at the deadline I'd say that completes the teardown.   

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1 hour ago, six-hopper said:

Last year and the year before: 64 wins.

This year: On pace for 60 wins (and they haven't traded away their desirable Major League assets yet).

I'm hoping for year to year imrovements, too.  But I have no confidence that that trend will start any time soon.

I agree. The Tigers have never gone 4 consecutive years sub 70 wins in their history. 2019 is the 3rd. Good chance next year is the 4th but I hope not. 

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7 hours ago, LooseGoose said:

In fairness, improvements wouldn't be expected whilst tearing down.  If Nick and Greene are dealt at the deadline I'd say that completes the teardown.   

Boyd still has to go. 

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9 hours ago, Motor City Sonics said:

Yes it do

I know I am going to regret asking this, but how did Avila's comments land us in the situation we are in now re: Castellanos?

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9 hours ago, six-hopper said:

Last year and the year before: 64 wins.

This year: On pace for 60 wins (and they haven't traded away their desirable Major League assets yet).

I'm hoping for year to year imrovements, too.  But I have no confidence that that trend will start any time soon.

this was always going to be the worst season of the rebuild.  hasn't been helped by all of the injuries to the rotation and starting middle infield.

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1 hour ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

I know I am going to regret asking this, but how did Avila's comments land us in the situation we are in now re: Castellanos?

It’s pretty simple. Had Avila kept his mouth shut, a team wouldn’t know that it wasn’t interested in trading value for a poor player. 

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15 hours ago, socaltiger said:

2022 is more fair.. We have to assume that once the kids get here they will struggle awhile.

 

14 hours ago, Shelton said:

I don’t think Avila is anything special. I don’t think he’s incompetent (yet). I’d be fine if they hired someone else to take the job. 

This is where I am at.

10 hours ago, six-hopper said:

Last year and the year before: 64 wins.

This year: On pace for 60 wins (and they haven't traded away their desirable Major League assets yet).

I'm hoping for year to year imrovements, too.  But I have no confidence that that trend will start any time soon.

I don't expect much improvement at the major league level anytime soon.  It'd be nice to see the young kids show something.  But I don't think there's enough on that team to avoid losing 100 games this season or next.

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You don't say out loud that you tried to trade someone and nobody wanted them.    It might be true, and everyone may know it's true, but you don't say that to the press,  it makes you look desperate and you weaken your own standing that way and probably **** off or humiliate the player.  Check and Check 

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9 hours ago, LooseGoose said:

In fairness, improvements wouldn't be expected whilst tearing down.  If Nick and Greene are dealt at the deadline I'd say that completes the teardown.   

It still won't be complete.  They also need to get rid of Boyd and whoever does well next year.  

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How is the $18 million QO determined? Is that the actual amount he would get if offered a QO? To me he's not worth that. So the Tigers would be foolish to offer it and Nick would be foolish to turn it down. If he was projected to get $75 million for 4 years or so, I could see it. But the market has changed. IMO, I hope he sits next season with no offers, QO or not.

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2 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

How is the $18 million QO determined? Is that the actual amount he would get if offered a QO? To me he's not worth that. So the Tigers would be foolish to offer it and Nick would be foolish to turn it down. If he was projected to get $75 million for 4 years or so, I could see it. But the market has changed. IMO, I hope he sits next season with no offers, QO or not.

It's the average amount of the top 125 highest paid players.  

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2 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

How is the $18 million QO determined? Is that the actual amount he would get if offered a QO? To me he's not worth that. So the Tigers would be foolish to offer it and Nick would be foolish to turn it down. If he was projected to get $75 million for 4 years or so, I could see it. But the market has changed. IMO, I hope he sits next season with no offers, QO or not.

It’s the average of the top 125 salaries of mlb players. 

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1 hour ago, Sports_Freak said:

How is the $18 million QO determined? Is that the actual amount he would get if offered a QO? To me he's not worth that. So the Tigers would be foolish to offer it and Nick would be foolish to turn it down. If he was projected to get $75 million for 4 years or so, I could see it. But the market has changed. IMO, I hope he sits next season with no offers, QO or not.

why do you hope he sits next season?  He's a solid guy--why wish the worst for him?

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