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Greene / Boyd Trade Options

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15 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

I guess I don't see what was so wrong about asking for Torres if you were Avila?   Boyd finished the year with 3.5 WAR, Torres 3.8 and at the time of the deadline Boyd was higher.    Yes I know Torres is younger and all that, but Boyd appeared to be a pitcher on the rise under control for several years which the Yankees needed while Torres although great and young was replaceable to the Yankees due to all the offense they had. 

Also lets not forget that against everybody not named the Orioles, Torres was a below average hitter according to OPS+, he crushed the worst pitching staff in the majors in two bandboxes but was less than average otherwise so it's not like he has been this unstoppable force.  

Plus Torres average HR distance was 261st in baseball at only 397.    He benefited greatly by the parks he played in in the AL East.  Those wall scrapers of HRs that he got would be fly outs at Comerica.  

That's good stuff.

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1 hour ago, Charles Liston said:

That's good stuff.

Nearly as good as the smoked sucker at Bruce's in Omer.

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On 10/17/2019 at 10:47 AM, Charles Liston said:

That's good stuff.

so torres benefits from playing in a smaller stadium, doesnt boyd benefit from playing in a bigger one?  and he still gave up the most home runs in baseball.

boyd has a 103 and 105 era + the last two years.  torres has a 122 and 128 ops+ the last two years.

boyd is a 29 year old average starting pitcher.  torres is a 21 year old multi-all star position player.

i guess if you value war that much to think that an average 29 year old is somehow as valuable as an all star 21 year old, thats an opinion i guess.  to me it just shows that war is a stat that overvalues certain things, like durability for starting pitchers, and isnt designed to measure others, like potential and age.

everyone negotiates differently.  we can think that avila asking for torres (if he ever actually did), is ok because if you dont ask you dont get.  but it sure seems like it ended negotiations pretty quickly, and all reports were that he asked for the moon every time.

obviously other teams dont pay attention to war as much as we fans do.

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33 minutes ago, Buddha said:

so torres benefits from playing in a smaller stadium, doesnt boyd benefit from playing in a bigger one?  and he still gave up the most home runs in baseball.

boyd has a 103 and 105 era + the last two years.  torres has a 122 and 128 ops+ the last two years.

boyd is a 29 year old average starting pitcher.  torres is a 21 year old multi-all star position player.

i guess if you value war that much to think that an average 29 year old is somehow as valuable as an all star 21 year old, thats an opinion i guess.  to me it just shows that war is a stat that overvalues certain things, like durability for starting pitchers, and isnt designed to measure others, like potential and age.

everyone negotiates differently.  we can think that avila asking for torres (if he ever actually did), is ok because if you dont ask you dont get.  but it sure seems like it ended negotiations pretty quickly, and all reports were that he asked for the moon every time.

obviously other teams dont pay attention to war as much as we fans do.

I agree that Torres is more valuable than Boyd and there was zero chance of that trade happening.

I disagree that durability of starting pitchers is overvalued.  Durability of starting pitchers is really important and not easy to find.  

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1 hour ago, Buddha said:

so torres benefits from playing in a smaller stadium, doesnt boyd benefit from playing in a bigger one?  and he still gave up the most home runs in baseball.

boyd has a 103 and 105 era + the last two years.  torres has a 122 and 128 ops+ the last two years.

boyd is a 29 year old average starting pitcher.  torres is a 21 year old multi-all star position player.

i guess if you value war that much to think that an average 29 year old is somehow as valuable as an all star 21 year old, thats an opinion i guess.  to me it just shows that war is a stat that overvalues certain things, like durability for starting pitchers, and isnt designed to measure others, like potential and age.

everyone negotiates differently.  we can think that avila asking for torres (if he ever actually did), is ok because if you dont ask you dont get.  but it sure seems like it ended negotiations pretty quickly, and all reports were that he asked for the moon every time.

obviously other teams dont pay attention to war as much as we fans do.

I'm not sure why you quoted me there, and then went on to talk about valuing WAR.  I have no use for WAR at all, none, ever since it declared Zobrist to be the best player in the American League.  I was applauding the research that showed a remarkable performance against one team in particular, and a performance that was not likely to be repeated in any other home park.  That's good stuff.  Does that mean that mean that you should be able to get Torres for Boyd?  Of course not.

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I have use for WAR, but it never should have been mainstreamed.  There are too many moving parts making up WAR which need to be broken down and analyzed.  You can't use it for everything the way some are trying to do.       

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Boyd’s and Torres’ values, by WAR or other means of evaluation, was different at the trade deadline than they are now. Boyd stumbled and Torres rose -not surprising, but not a given either. And with the Yankees losing the ALCS in part because their rotation was their weakness, I can see them considering the trade back in July. Short term gain only.

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14 minutes ago, Dan Gilmore said:

Boyd’s and Torres’ values, by WAR or other means of evaluation, was different at the trade deadline than they are now. Boyd stumbled and Torres rose -not surprising, but not a given either. And with the Yankees losing the ALCS in part because their rotation was their weakness, I can see them considering the trade back in July. Short term gain only.

I think Boyd stumbling and Torres rising were pretty much givens. Boyd came out of nowhere to have what was for him a career half season at age 28, and no one thought Torres was anything like merely a 50-50 crapshoot.

I don't think the Yankees considered that trade for even a nanosecond. I imagine they were audibly guffawing before Avila could get the second syllable of Torres's first name out.

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Now I will say in advance that I am NOT comparing Matt Boyd to Randy Johnson, but just pointing out that the late blooming left hand pitcher is not an unknown phenomenon in baseball, which would be something that might help explain why the hype for Boyd got as much traction as it did.

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2 hours ago, Charles Liston said:

I'm not sure why you quoted me there, and then went on to talk about valuing WAR.  I have no use for WAR at all, none, ever since it declared Zobrist to be the best player in the American League.  I was applauding the research that showed a remarkable performance against one team in particular, and a performance that was not likely to be repeated in any other home park.  That's good stuff.  Does that mean that mean that you should be able to get Torres for Boyd?  Of course not.

i was just making a point, not arguing with you.

rather than quote randy's quote, i just quoted you instead.  

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25 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

Now I will say in advance that I am NOT comparing Matt Boyd to Randy Johnson, but just pointing out that the late blooming left hand pitcher is not an unknown phenomenon in baseball, which would be something that might help explain why the hype for Boyd got as much traction as it did.

he bloomed all the way up to 105 era + which was almost exactly where he was last year.

i dont mean to bag on poor boyd, he's the best pitcher we got and he's just fine.  but for torres?  what i took from randy's post was that torres was lucky and boyd was worth as much because of his war.  i dont think thats true.

maybe if the deaden the ball boyd will be better off?  then again, most pitchers will...

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2 hours ago, Buddha said:

he bloomed all the way up to 105 era + which was almost exactly where he was last year.

i dont mean to bag on poor boyd, ..

His ERA did get to just under 3 at the end of May when trade talks were in full swing, which was probably better than a 105 ERA+ at that time. I don't have any issue with us fans being excited at how good his results were early in the season - the disconnect is/was in believing anyone would give you value back on that basis without a lot more track record. And of course, since he didn't sustain it, anyone was right to be skeptical.

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In Keith Law's latest chat somebody asked if the Tigers were to trade Boyd this offseason could they get a bat that landed in the middle of Keith's top 100 and Law said yes.    I'd definitely take a top 50ish prospect for him at this point. 

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5 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

In Keith Law's latest chat somebody asked if the Tigers were to trade Boyd this offseason could they get a bat that landed in the middle of Keith's top 100 and Law said yes.    I'd definitely take a top 50ish prospect for him at this point. 

I would make that deal yesterday. I would rather take the bird in the hand than watch the two in the bush fly away next July.

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On 10/24/2019 at 12:34 PM, RandyMarsh said:

In Keith Law's latest chat somebody asked if the Tigers were to trade Boyd this offseason could they get a bat that landed in the middle of Keith's top 100 and Law said yes.    I'd definitely take a top 50ish prospect for him at this point. 

As one goes down a prospect list though, I can't see one team letting go of any of those prospects for Boyd. 

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Boyd has tantalizing talent and it shows in certain peripherals, but obviously the Tigers can't figure out how to unlock the talent he has on a consistent basis. He may have years of control left but he's long in the tooth (29 next year!). But if the Astros or Rays or Yankees or Dodgers come calling about him, that's when we'll know for sure he definitely has something they can work with. I would hope Avila wouldn't miss the opportunity on getting par value for Boyd by continuing to insist on Wander Franco or Gavin Lux or Brendan McKay or Gleyber Torres (again), otherwise get bent. That would be a disaster. 

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