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Greene / Boyd Trade Options

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25 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

What you have in Boyd is a pitcher that has 95, has learned his craft, and has a rock solid health history. Which makes this exactly the description of a counter productive, franchise value reducing trade. Let's see if Avila makes it.

Except Avila apparently doesn't think bringing on raw, toolsy prospects reduces franchise value. He apparently thinks that increases franchise value. Otherwise he wouldn't be signing and trading for guys like that by the bucketload on a regular basis.

BTW, where are you getting Boyd at 95? Fangraphs has his fastball at 91-92, Brooks has him topping out at 93 just this month, and Statcast has his fastball velocity in the blue.

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17 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Except Avila apparently doesn't think bringing on raw, toolsy prospects reduces franchise value. He apparently thinks that increases franchise value. Otherwise he wouldn't be signing and trading for guys like that by the bucketload on a regular basis.

BTW, where are you getting Boyd at 95? Fangraphs has his fastball at 91-92, Brooks has him topping out at 93 just this month, and Statcast has his fastball velocity in the blue.

He doesn't average 95 but he hits it with some regularity. I think average FB numbers are are little value, you really want to see a guy's range - the bigger the better. Matt throws his FB anywhere from about 88 up to 95.  (ergo: avg=91-92) He's been hitting 94 ever since the weather got warm and his best FB has been a little better than that in his last half-dozen starts.

I can't get this to export the graphic but grab a straight edge and check this:

https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=15440&position=P&pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2017&end=2019&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=

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1 hour ago, chasfh said:

I see Boyd moving for the kind of raw, toolsy prospect that other teams are looking to clean out of their systems but that this front office still values highly. To get anyone in the top 100, I think the Tigers would have to throw in 30-year-old Greene as well, at minimum. With all the tankers competing for prospects as well, the market's already stacked against us, so I can see us pulling the trigger quickly on the first offer we consider to be halfway decent.

IF Avila makes any trade that resembles that even I'll go into open revolt.    That would be stupid beyond belief.

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What is the evidence that this org values raw and toolsy guys over the alternative? Honest question.

pretty much any prospect is going to be some degree of raw. 

 

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12 minutes ago, Shelton said:

What is the evidence that this org values raw and toolsy guys over the alternative? Honest question.

I'm sure that I read somewhere on the interwebz that this team has no prospects.

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5 minutes ago, Shelton said:

What is the evidence that this org values raw and toolsy guys over the alternative? Honest question.

pretty much any prospect is going to be some degree of raw. 

 

interesting question and I think it breaks both ways. I think they do like 'toolsy' guys when they are shopping 2nd tier. Niko, Jones, Cameron etc. But I don't think it holds a whole lot when they are looking for top shelfers. Greene and Quintana are not toolsy, nor was Mize (Singer was the toolsy one - and may still turn out very well as well), likewise Faedo. Those were guys picked for demonstrated polish and performance over toolsiness. Manning was toolsy - Meadows is certainly 'toolsy'.  So they swing both ways.

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22 minutes ago, Shelton said:

What is the evidence that this org values raw and toolsy guys over the alternative? Honest question.

pretty much any prospect is going to be some degree of raw. 

 

I offer that up as a general observation from having watched this organization closely during my life, and without supporting evidence. You may reject the premise if you like.

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20 minutes ago, chasfh said:

You may reject the premise if you like.

That's quite munificent of you.

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2 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

interesting question and I think it breaks both ways. I think they do like 'toolsy' guys when they are shopping 2nd tier. Niko, Jones, Cameron etc. But I don't think it holds a whole lot when they are looking for top shelfers. Greene and Quintana are not toolsy, nor was Mize (Singer was the toolsy one - and may still turn out very well as well), likewise Faedo. Those were guys picked for demonstrated polish and performance over toolsiness. Manning was toolsy - Meadows is certainly 'toolsy'.  So they swing both ways.

The important thing is that we should be concerned that Avila might just give away Boyd for a bunch of garbage. How terrible would that be if it happened, which is almost assured? Let’s discuss.

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17 hours ago, leflore said:

I'm actually in the camp to keep Boyd and can envision a rotation with him, Turnbull, Mize and Manning. But if he can land a very promising bat, maybe consider the trade. Turnbull's WAR is at 2.3 less than halfway into his rookie season

This is where I am at... and where I need to start my opinion/ conversation points. I'll do bullet points in case anyone wants to reply to specific points....:

1) I'm targeting 2021 as being back in playoff contention. I think Mize & Manning break into MLB this year September or a good part of next year (is that after May 1st?). So 2021 rotation, for playoff contention, is Mize/ Boyd/ Manning/ Turnbull/ take your pick of Norris/ Fulmer/ Zimm/ Faedo/ whomever is last standing as 5th starter (don't know when contracts end/ FA starts for all except Faedo...). Maybe even Perez? Although I think he has a ways to go to get back into form after all these injuries... If that even happens.

2) With that kind of rotation (aside from TINSTAPP and career years and all that... let's just call it "my expectations are..."); we are instantly contenders. If our pitchers meet expectations, that is... (I'm not saying "guaranteed playoffs"... I'm just saying that if we have a rotation of starters that are dominating, we're a contender...)

3) I'm not willing to trade Boyd, unless it's an offer we can't refuse, based on the above.

4) I'm going to throw one more caveat in here, starting with Turnbull but also extending to Boyd: I'm holding on to these two pitchers, through 2021 at least, unless and until, they get "pushed out" of the rotation by someone better. At that point, I would also consider trading them. Now, they might end up "fool's gold", and we should have traded them at peak value. But... I believe they are worth more to the Tigers and their attempt at 2021 playoff contention, then trying to obtain peak value, which we might not even get. Again, if there's a "can't refuse" offer, sure, why not. And to my point, if Faedo is dominating in MLB already and Perez is dominating in MLB already, that makes at least Turnbull expendable. But, in my mind, these two have to be "pushed out" of the 2021 rotation before I consider trading them, other than a killer deal.

5) Since relievers come and go, I can't say the same for Greene. We get a good deal... make the trade. If Bohm is offered for Greene, yes. Other players can balance out the trade as needed, but that's a great starting point. How about Drew Waters from the Braves? They're desperate for reliever help. They have some nice young pitchers too, to add into a trade.

6) Crazy as it sounds, I'm going to do the same thing with JaCoby as I did with Turnbull & Boyd. I'm waiting until he gets pushed out off the team by someone better. I think he has next to nothing in trade value. And adding him into a Greene trade won't do much either, IMO. Adding Casty to a Greene deal is probably the same. But Casty can go for whatever we can get. He's gone after this season anyways, for nothing. Do the Braves also need an extra OF'er/ PH'er/ etc...? Anyways, back to JaCoby: he might also be fool's gold. But I'll take the risk. An OF of JJ-Cameron-Reyes and Stewart at DH and part-time OF'er (for interleague games) is fine in 2021, at least until better prospects push 1 or 2 of these guys off the team. I'm fine with waiting until that happens. Maybe Riley Greene flies up the chain and is in MLB by 2021, or after June 1st 2021, and inspires a run to the playoffs... and pushes JJ to the bench...

Anyways... love the discussion, those were just a few of my thoughts.

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14 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

can probably take Boyd's name off this thread.

Nothing has changed.

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Thinking it will amount to dumping Casty and a marginal but decent return for Greene. Thats about it. 

What I am wondering is in lieu of the Mize injury does that make Boyd more valuable to us or less ? Do we need to keep all pitching since its so fragile or has the rebuild been delayed ?

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1 minute ago, socaltiger said:

Thinking it will amount to dumping Casty and a marginal but decent return for Greene. Thats about it. 

What I am wondering is in lieu of the Mize injury does that make Boyd more valuable to us or less ? Do we need to keep all pitching since its so fragile or has the rebuild been delayed ?

Whether the prognosis is more or less serious it's still a reminder of how much pitching you have to have in an organization to finally fill a major league staff and that pitchers who prove they can stay stay healthy like Boyd has put themselves in a separate class.

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7 minutes ago, socaltiger said:

Thinking it will amount to dumping Casty and a marginal but decent return for Greene. Thats about it. 

What I am wondering is in lieu of the Mize injury does that make Boyd more valuable to us or less ? Do we need to keep all pitching since its so fragile or has the rebuild been delayed ?

It makes shopping Boyd even more necessary.  He is their only shot to get an impact bat(s), as they have none at any level.  Greene might be one in 4 or 5 years, but who knows.  IF your rebuild is largely centered around pitching, its probably not going to end well.  And if their plan is to add one potential impact bat a year via a top 5 DP,  its probably not going to end well either. 

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If we trade Boyd or Greene, the best they will fetch is a "Paredes/Jeimar" return.  In all likelihood, we get less than that.  Maybe another lively arm that can't throw strikes, or a tall 18 year old who plays shortstop and runs real fast.

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46 minutes ago, Buddha said:

If we trade Boyd or Greene, the best they will fetch is a "Paredes/Jeimar" return.  In all likelihood, we get less than that.  Maybe another lively arm that can't throw strikes, or a tall 18 year old who plays shortstop and runs real fast.

I disagree.  They're worth more than that, at least Boyd is.  That was a great return for Wilson/Avila, but they'll need more for Boyd, or keep him.

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6 hours ago, MDMAzing said:

It makes shopping Boyd even more necessary.  He is their only shot to get an impact bat(s), as they have none at any level.  Greene might be one in 4 or 5 years, but who knows.  IF your rebuild is largely centered around pitching, its probably not going to end well.  And if their plan is to add one potential impact bat a year via a top 5 DP,  its probably not going to end well either. 

Less necessary.

Big bats can be bought cheaply in FA.

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5 hours ago, cruzer1 said:

I disagree.  They're worth more than that, at least Boyd is.  That was a great return for Wilson/Avila, but they'll need more for Boyd, or keep him.

i hope so.

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2 hours ago, 84 Lives!!! said:

Less necessary. 

Big bats can be bought cheaply in FA. 

I don't disagree with you at all, but I also don't think you can just wait until you're "ready to contend" to START that buying. You're not going to go out and buy 3-4 impact bats in one offseason. Look at our last successful rebuild. We signed Pudge in '04, we signed Magglio in '05. We didn't really start to see returns on those things until '06 when we added Rogers and brought JV & Zumaya up, but we had all star caliber MLB bats already on the team.


We also traded for Guillen in '04 and Polanco in '05.

Had they not started adding those FA bats 2 years before the "window" I don't know that the "window" would have been nearly as successful. That '06 offense was mostly reliant on established MLB talent that was not developed/drafted by Detroit, but we didn't wait for all of our prospects to hit MLB before we started adding them.

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8 hours ago, MDMAzing said:

It makes shopping Boyd even more necessary.  

I disagree 100%.   It makes shopping Boyd more of a gamble.  Trading team controlled, proven MLB starting pitching while trying to build a contender is a sure way to lengthen the rebuild.

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2 hours ago, 84 Lives!!! said:

Less necessary.

Big bats can be bought cheaply in FA.

this is true, but likely as 1-2 year options vs. building a core.  Recent, cheap free agent signings include Nelson Cruz, Jonathan Schoop, Nick Markakis and Mike Moustakis, all having good seasons and would be our best hitters.

Too lazy to look up, but I'll bet their total salaries don't equal $30MM this year.

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