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Greene / Boyd Trade Options

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15 hours ago, LooseGoose said:

lol, don't know a thing about the kid but a middle INF for Boyd would at least drive discussion here.

Negatively.

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3 hours ago, cruzer1 said:

I'm not worried about that.  I'm not a Dubon fan, but I'm definitely a Brice Turang fan, and I would want him and Tristen Lutz at least (throw in Ashby and I'm almost there).

Maybe Supak. But, we need Hiura.

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1 hour ago, Tim Mitchell said:

Negatively.

There's a shortstop named Iglesias  out there.  A little hot-doggy, but he's batting .300 with a .772 OPS.

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Brewers managed to hang onto Hiura when they traded for 5 years of Christian Yelich. He was their top prospect then and has only gotten better. He is mlb ready and better than what they are running out there. 

I'd bet the house Boyd doesn't bring him back. Turang and Lutz I'd be okay with. Maybe they can do better, but that's the sort of return I expected. A prospect on back half of the top 100 and a 2nd prospect a tick or two behind. 

A Quintana-like return (top 10 prospect and a 75-100 prospect) required a perfect storm for the White Sox. 1. Quintana had a longer track record of high performance than Boyd. 2. You had a team, in the Cubs, that wanted a cost controlled pitcher badly, and were willing to pay a premium to make it happen fast. Theo was unusual in 16-17, trading top prospects like Eloy, Gleybor, Cease and even Paredes like they were an easily renewable resource. Trying to build a dynasty. That was out of character with most of the league then, even more-so now. 

 

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1 hour ago, Tenacious D said:

I’d rather hold on to Boyd if we can’t get an impact bat.

Ditto.

If we can somehow wrangle Bohm+others, or a Drew Waters/ Ian Anderson/+ package... even if it's Boyd+Greene+one of Goodrum/Dixon/ Casty to make that trade... then sure, why not.

Otherwise... he can be our 3rd to 5th starter in 2021 when we're getting good again and he is in the middle of a Mize-Manning-Boyd-Faedo-Turnbull (or other) rotation...

.500-ish in 2020, playoff contendah in 2021... I'm sticking with that.

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They're last in mlb in runs scored, will be losing Nick and really don't have any run producers coming into the fold next year. To be .500ish the kid pitchers will have to be star level out of the gate, unless AA/Chris add bats via FA

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1 minute ago, leflore said:

unless AA/Chris add bats via FA

This.  So many guys signed one year deals last offseason, including Moustakas, Schoop, Markakis.  This could turn respectable quickly, if we wanted.

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42 minutes ago, leflore said:

They're last in mlb in runs scored, will be losing Nick and really don't have any run producers coming into the fold next year. To be .500-ish the kid pitchers will have to be star level out of the gate, unless AA/Chris add bats via FA

I believe multiple kids will be coming up next year... run producers.

Now, they're kids/ rookies... so they'll be streaky/ up and down. I'm not saying we'll have consistent run producers. But I believe Willi, Daz, Rogers, and even Victor Reyes, will be up/ back up with the Tigers next year. They'll be a net positive on offense, even with a lot of ups & downs. 

Second, starting pitchers coming up won't have to be star level, IMO. They could have the same ups & downs as the hitters. But I would say this: they'll be WORLDS better than what we've seen this year.

And, besides the starters: I believe we'll see lots of changes in the bullpen. A lot of fresh arms. We'll see what happens with that.

One last caveat: we may not see too many rookie faces breaking Spring Training. But by May-ish, I think we'll see fresh faces all over the place...

I believe the pitching will improve significantly, the fielding significantly, and run production moderately. I'll go out on a limb early: 76-80 wins next year.

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1 hour ago, 84 Lives!!! said:

I believe multiple kids will be coming up next year... run producers.

Now, they're kids/ rookies... so they'll be streaky/ up and down. I'm not saying we'll have consistent run producers. But I believe Willi, Daz, Rogers, and even Victor Reyes, will be up/ back up with the Tigers next year. They'll be a net positive on offense, even with a lot of ups & downs. 

Second, starting pitchers coming up won't have to be star level, IMO. They could have the same ups & downs as the hitters. But I would say this: they'll be WORLDS better than what we've seen this year.

And, besides the starters: I believe we'll see lots of changes in the bullpen. A lot of fresh arms. We'll see what happens with that.

One last caveat: we may not see too many rookie faces breaking Spring Training. But by May-ish, I think we'll see fresh faces all over the place...

I believe the pitching will improve significantly, the fielding significantly, and run production moderately. I'll go out on a limb early: 76-80 wins next year.

I think 76-80 is very optimistic especially if they trade Greene and Boyd. To many things would have to go right for that to happen. 

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7 hours ago, irvink said:

A Quintana-like return (top 10 prospect and a 75-100 prospect) required a perfect storm for the White Sox. 1. Quintana had a longer track record of high performance than Boyd. 2. You had a team, in the Cubs, that wanted a cost controlled pitcher badly, and were willing to pay a premium to make it happen fast. Theo was unusual in 16-17, trading top prospects like Eloy, Gleybor, Cease and even Paredes like they were an easily renewable resource. Trying to build a dynasty. That was out of character with most of the league then, even more-so now. 

 

I forgot about the Meadows/Glasnow/Shane Baz (currently a back of the top 100 guy having a real nice year in the MWL) deal for 3.5 years of Archer. Heists can still happen. All you have to do is believe.

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trade boyd before the clock strikes midnight and he turns back into matt boyd.

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5 hours ago, 84 Lives!!! said:

I believe multiple kids will be coming up next year... run producers.

Now, they're kids/ rookies... so they'll be streaky/ up and down. I'm not saying we'll have consistent run producers. But I believe Willi, Daz, Rogers, and even Victor Reyes, will be up/ back up with the Tigers next year. They'll be a net positive on offense, even with a lot of ups & downs. 

Second, starting pitchers coming up won't have to be star level, IMO. They could have the same ups & downs as the hitters. But I would say this: they'll be WORLDS better than what we've seen this year.

And, besides the starters: I believe we'll see lots of changes in the bullpen. A lot of fresh arms. We'll see what happens with that.

One last caveat: we may not see too many rookie faces breaking Spring Training. But by May-ish, I think we'll see fresh faces all over the place...

I believe the pitching will improve significantly, the fielding significantly, and run production moderately. I'll go out on a limb early: 76-80 wins next year.

I appreciate your optimism and I mean that. I'm generally an optimist but something in my gut doesn't trust Chris Illitch when he says he will spend. I was sort of hoping the Illitch family would sell to Gilbert, whom I do believe would spend

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36 minutes ago, Buddha said:

trade boyd before the clock strikes midnight and he turns back into matt boyd.

Completely agree.   AA learned nothing from the way he handled Fulmer.   Buy low, sell high.  

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4 hours ago, tater6 said:

...Too many things would have to go right for that to happen. 

I'm planning on everything going right for the Tigers in 2020 and beyond...

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56 minutes ago, syrett4 said:

Completely agree.   AA learned nothing from the way he handled Fulmer.   Buy low, sell high.  

yeah - It wouldn't break my heart to move Boyd IF we get back bona fide MLB player(s) back. My guess is that he's going to provide a few years 2-3 starter quality - a solid guy, but I don't think his appearance on several leaderboard early in this season is likely to become a his regular residence. They will still need that guy in a couple of years themselves, but if someone is willing to make a clear overpay  today you have to take it.

I'm less critical about the handing Fulmer. I don't think it was clear what we had, we were as likely to end up selling low as selling high. It still not very clear what we have in Fulmer.....

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14 minutes ago, leflore said:

I appreciate your optimism and I mean that...

Despite all the optimism... it still has to be (I have to be...): prove it on the field. I'll believe it when I see it. 

I guess another way to say it is that while I feel I can go out on a limb with that prediction; I still need the confirmation of their actual play on the field next year before I can feel firm/ comfortable with those #'s... I think they can do it. But I'll feel better when I see it.

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8 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

yeah - It wouldn't break my heart to move Boyd IF we get back bona fide MLB player(s) back. My guess is that he's going to provide a few years 2-3 starter quality - a solid guy, but I don't think his appearance on several leaderboard early in this season is likely to become a his regular residence. They will still need that guy in a couple of years themselves, but if someone is willing to make a clear overpay  today you have to take it.

I'm less critical about the handing Fulmer. I don't think it was clear what we had, we were as likely to end up selling low as selling high. It still not very clear what he have in Fulmer.....

I remember Rosenthal commenting during one of Fulmer's starts, basically saying he was a severe injury waiting to happen due to his delivery. I have had a Rosenthal voodoo doll ever since and poke it daily

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1 hour ago, Buddha said:

trade boyd before the clock strikes midnight and he turns back into matt boyd.

Need to get a good hitting prospect in return but this is where I'm at. There is a lot of risk in not trading Boyd soon. Also, he's not a young guy, by the time the Tigers might be ready to compete, say 2022, he's in his last year before FA.

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29 minutes ago, leflore said:

I remember Rosenthal commenting during one of Fulmer's starts, basically saying he was a severe injury waiting to happen due to his delivery. I have had a Rosenthal voodoo doll ever since and poke it daily

Quote

There is a lot of risk in not trading Boyd soon.

 

If I had a nickel for every pitcher that is predicted to have arm trouble that doesn't - I still wouldn't have much I guess, but the point is those kinds of predictions don't have any reliability either (Scherzer sends his regards). Pitchers are risky period, but you can't play the game without them so you have to strike some reasonable middle ground of accepting the risk they entail or you will never have enough of a staff to compete.

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brewers don't have the best system but they have some intriguing prospects.  if your going to trade with them i think the best your going to get is turang (if) dubion (ss/2b) and grisham (of).  it has to be a 3 for 1 trade.  some good solid bats.  i don't know if any of them are "impact" bats but they are performing well in their respective leagues.  have good bat control & obp numbers which this team desperately needs.

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I agree, you never know. I was sure Max would eventually break down given his awkward/violent wind-up and release, but he has proven to be very durable

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9 hours ago, irvink said:

Need to get a good hitting prospect in return but this is where I'm at. There is a lot of risk in not trading Boyd soon. Also, he's not a young guy, by the time the Tigers might be ready to compete, say 2022, he's in his last year before FA.

For some reason I was thinking he was under control for 2023.  I'd keep him around for two years of contention, but it seems like if its only one, then you might as well trade him.

I'm not worried about Boyd turning into a pumpkin.  The Cleveland starts don't worry me much.  It seems like when these two teams play each other, the team with the upper hand dominates pretty easily over the last decade or two, probably more so than would be expected.

Boyd has also shown nice progression over his career with 2017 as an outlier.  He might have gotten off to a above his head start, but even if he levels out a bit, he's still going to be an attractive trade piece because of the contract contract and because he did flash that potential in April and May.  A two month streak isn't necessarily something to scoff at.

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On 6/21/2019 at 8:46 PM, Tenacious D said:

Boyd has looked more like last year’s version lately.  Hope it doesn’t impact his trade value.

FWIW, Boyd's game score trend:

2019-06-24_9-15-12.jpg.5f00fdab03658e5530208b84e08cc15f.jpg

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Quote

29. Detroit Tigers (26-47, minus-140, last week: 29)

There may be no player more screamingly available at the trade deadline than Nick Castellanos. He’s a free agent at season’s end, and the rebuilding Tigers likely aren’t interested in paying up to extend him into what might be his decline years.

The question is: Will anybody want him? Castellanos was one of the top 30 hitters in baseball by park-adjusted offense from 2016 to 2018, peaking with a .298/.354/.500 effort last year. The thing is, he’s an outfielder in name only, with his defense being so bad, DH is his only logical position. Hit like he did last year and bat-hungry teams would still figure to come calling. Slip to .269/.328/.452, as he has this year, and the market could be considerably thinner — especially with most top AL contenders being all set at the DH spot.

Jonah Keri

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