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2019 MLB Draft thread

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32 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

Here’s a bit of a cautionary tale with high school hitters.  Nick Plummer was a highly regarded prep OF at Brother Rice high school.  I was able to see him play one game—he effortlessly cleared the CF fence in his first AB, and never saw a decent pitch the rest of the game.  Here was a pre-draft write-up:

http://highschoolsports.mlive.com/news/article/6900411315827467039/brother-rice-senior-outfielder-nick-plummer-has-high-mlb-draft-potential-with-strong-bat-athleticism/

He slipped a bit in the actual draft, going to the Cardinals with the #23 pick in the first round.

Here is a link to his career stats.  He’s had some injury issues, but his performance when healthy has been anemic.  If he hadn’t been drafted so high, he would have surely been cut by now.  Age 22 in High A ball:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=plumme000nic

Not saying this would happen with Greene, but with the 5th pick, I would rather we mitigate the risk with a college bat, if there is one when we pick.

Of course, if we draft Greene and he turns into a Bryce Harper-type, I reserve the right to change my mind.

The key is to post multiple times over a couple months and advocate drafting different players.   Then you always have a prescient post to bump years later.

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12 minutes ago, LooseGoose said:

The key is to post multiple times over a couple months and advocate drafting different players.   Then you always have a prescient post to bump years later.

?

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56 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

Here’s a bit of a cautionary tale with high school hitters.  Nick Plummer was a highly regarded prep OF at Brother Rice high school.  I was able to see him play one game—he effortlessly cleared the CF fence in his first AB, and never saw a decent pitch the rest of the game.  Here was a pre-draft write-up:

http://highschoolsports.mlive.com/news/article/6900411315827467039/brother-rice-senior-outfielder-nick-plummer-has-high-mlb-draft-potential-with-strong-bat-athleticism/

He slipped a bit in the actual draft, going to the Cardinals with the #23 pick in the first round.

Here is a link to his career stats.  He’s had some injury issues, but his performance when healthy has been anemic.  If he hadn’t been drafted so high, he would have surely been cut by now.  Age 22 in High A ball:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=plumme000nic

Not saying this would happen with Greene, but with the 5th pick, I would rather we mitigate the risk with a college bat, if there is one when we pick.

Of course, if we draft Greene and he turns into a Bryce Harper-type, I reserve the right to change my mind.

 

 

You can find the same “cautionary tale” with college bats. Anecdotes don’t mean much, except scouting is difficult.

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2 hours ago, Tim Mitchell said:

Pelfrey and Lowe were great moves.

Great so two bad moves that he got rid of quickly. I'm sure the Astros never made a bad signing

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11 minutes ago, Keepleyland2 said:

Great so two bad moves that he got rid of quickly. I'm sure the Astros never made a bad signing

I was never a fan of those moves.  I think those are easily the worst on the ledger so far, but I am probably forgetting one or two others.  If there was a site that tracked moves by GM, that'd be pretty darn swell.

Most of his other moves are just not far enough along to be quantified (ie, trading for prospects, players acquired through the draft, etc.) or minor moves just to move the Tigers along through this process (such as the stop gaps like Fiers, Ross, Moore, Dixon, Goodrum, etc.).

The other aspect that is difficult/impossible to evaluate would be deals on the table that were never made (which we may never know about), or deals that were never on the table that we might like to think were there (ie, anyone looking into Iglesias like we think would/should have happened).

I'm not saying Avila has done a terrific job, but I don't think he has done as poorly as some think he has.  Right now the Tigers are playing the long game, and patience isn't always easy to come by.

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Bottom feeding for guys that could surprise is not a problem - it was something I thing DD didn't do enough of. The mistake with Pelf wasn't so much Pelf himself as it was the dollars and the 2nd year. It appears they ended up bidding only against themselves there.

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1 minute ago, Gehringer_2 said:

Bottom feeding for guys that could surprise is not a problem, the mistake with Pelf were the dollars and the 2nd year. It appears they ended up bidding only against themselves there.

I think the same could be applied to Lowe.  Banking on basically one season of success for Lowe versus other seasons suckess.

At least with Pelfrey there was a bit of a history of eating innings up.  It just didn't work out so well.

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Of course Zimmerman was much worse than Pelf or Lowe

That said, Avila seems to doing a reasonable job at rebuilding. Like someone said, its too early to know if any of these prospects are good, but they are mostly guys who the national sources seem to like at least. 

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42 minutes ago, Nastradamus said:

Of course Zimmerman was much worse than Pelf or Lowe

That said, Avila seems to doing a reasonable job at rebuilding. Like someone said, its too early to know if any of these prospects are good, but they are mostly guys who the national sources seem to like at least. 

I wonder how much of Zimmerman was Ilitch over Avila.  Maybe not, maybe that is truly on Avila.  But the hallmark of going after a big name (and it was a big name signing at the time) is a Mike Ilitch staple.

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1 hour ago, LooseGoose said:

The key is to post multiple times over a couple months and advocate drafting different players.   Then you always have a prescient post to bump years later.

That's really solid advice.

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have to say I like the part about Greene being obsessed with hitting since he was a rug rat. There are no guarantees with hitting but it has to go on the plus side of the ledger when a kid has gotten a ton of reps when he was young and his brain was still sorting out which connections it thought it needed to make.

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1 hour ago, Nastradamus said:

Of course Zimmerman was much worse than Pelf or Lowe

That said, Avila seems to doing a reasonable job at rebuilding. Like someone said, its too early to know if any of these prospects are good, but they are mostly guys who the national sources seem to like at least. 

Reasonable how? Look at the '17 draft. Look at all of the no power, no walk guys he's acquired. Look at all of the horrible FA's he's acquired. What exactly is his plan? He doesn't seem to have one. At all. 

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Ask yourself this: What is Al's ideal player profile on offense? 

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1 minute ago, Yoda said:

Ask yourself this: What is Al's ideal player profile on offense? 

Mike Trout.   If he could only get 3 or 4 of those guys we'd be OK.

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10 hours ago, Keepleyland2 said:

I know its cool to crap on Avila, but really what has he done that has been so terrible? There tear down didn't take too long, draft seems OK/too early to tell, the trades got what the market bared. Sure every GM is going to have misses, but what has he done that gets him this treatment?

I am not crapping on AA, and he knows more about baseball then me and everyone else on the board, but he is coming up on 4 years as GM, and his signature move remains getting JD when he was the assistant GM. Like all GMs, he has some wins and some losses, I would be happy to give him a C+ for Niko, Willi C, Parades and Candelario 

But it me what stands out is that nothing stands out. No trade, draft pick, FA signing, waiver pick up, Rule 5 picks, or anything that AA has done is a wow - that's impressive - move. My usual reaction is "I get that" or "Best he could do" or "Had to be done". When you compare the Tigers to the Astros, Rays, Dodgers, Padres and Yankees front offices, they and others appear to be doing a lot more forward looking, innovate thinking. I would be surprised if AA surprised me.

 

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24 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

I am not crapping on AA, and he knows more about baseball then me and everyone else on the board, but he is coming up on 4 years as GM, and his signature move remains getting JD when he was the assistant GM. Like all GMs, he has some wins and some losses, I would be happy to give him a C+ for Niko, Willi C, Parades and Candelario 

But it me what stands out is that nothing stands out. No trade, draft pick, FA signing, waiver pick up, Rule 5 picks, or anything that AA has done is a wow - that's impressive - move. My usual reaction is "I get that" or "Best he could do" or "Had to be done". When you compare the Tigers to the Astros, Rays, Dodgers, Padres and Yankees front offices, they and others appear to be doing a lot more forward looking, innovate thinking. I would be surprised if AA surprised me.

 

I don't know how you can look at Mize, Manning, Faedo and Rogers and say *nothing* stands out. Maybe not enough - but not nothing. Sure Mize was the CW no-brainer, but a lot of GMs have gotten too clever for their own good with #1 overalls. Just having the sense to do the easy thing is not always nothing. I also give him credit for the mid-level depth he has managed to assemble. By any measure a projected 90 loss team that losses 4/5 of its starting rotation and it's regular DP combo, and whose top two hitters spend the first two months of the season not producing should be playing 200 ball at this point. Tigs have been bad but have every reason to be much worse.

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Based on all I've read and all the podcasts listened to, I believe the Tigers will take Bleday or Vaughn if one is avail. If not, Greene is probably the guy.

Mark Anderson and Wezner's latest pod was draft-centric and they said something to the effect of, the Tigers like Lodolo but more as a plan B... If the college guys are gone, if Greene raises his number, or perhaps they just get cold feet on grabbing a high school bat, that could lead to Lodolo. 

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I see them trying to be "smart" and take Lodolo....just a gut feeling.

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I have said consistently on this board, FWIW which isn't much, that Al Avilia has done a good job overall with the exception of his first year in free agency which might have been influenced by Mike Illitch. I still think that way. 

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For this years draft I think their preference order is  Bleday , Vaughn and Greene. 

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I’m losing confidence a bit.  Not sure if this is a fair barometer of the health of an organization, but every team in the system is well below .500, save for Erie who is right around .500.

Mize and Manning have looked dominant, and Rogers has been very good.  A lot of inconsistency or disappointment with our other prospects.  The inconsistent part is perhaps to be expected as players move up and face better competition, but doesn’t really instill a lot of confidence right now.

I suspect the next good Tigers team, hopefully in my lifetime, will consist of homegrown pitching and a lineup mostly populated by free agent signings, trades, and a couple of guys via the minors.  Hope that Avila can hit on the trades and FA’s.  His track record has been a bit spotty to date.

 

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1 hour ago, RatkoVarda said:

I am not crapping on AA, and he knows more about baseball then me and everyone else on the board, but he is coming up on 4 years as GM, and his signature move remains getting JD when he was the assistant GM. Like all GMs, he has some wins and some losses, I would be happy to give him a C+ for Niko, Willi C, Parades and Candelario 

But it me what stands out is that nothing stands out. No trade, draft pick, FA signing, waiver pick up, Rule 5 picks, or anything that AA has done is a wow - that's impressive - move. My usual reaction is "I get that" or "Best he could do" or "Had to be done". When you compare the Tigers to the Astros, Rays, Dodgers, Padres and Yankees front offices, they and others appear to be doing a lot more forward looking, innovate thinking. I would be surprised if AA surprised me.

 

While I agree, in general, it also doesn't really say much because there's a lot more to it than that. 

Al Avila is Clint Eastwood in The Mule. Sure, the guy knew everything about flowers. Probably more than most modern florists. The problem is, he refused to adapt with the times and could no longer maintain a successful business. He never learned to use a computer and though his way was good enough, as it was 20 years prior.

This is what the Tigers are doing, and it starts with their GM. 

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13 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

I’m losing confidence a bit.  Not sure if this is a fair barometer of the health of an organization, but every team in the system is well below .500, save for Erie who is right around .500.

Mize and Manning have looked dominant, and Rogers has been very good.  A lot of inconsistency or disappointment with our other prospects.  The inconsistent part is perhaps to be expected as players move up and face better competition, but doesn’t really instill a lot of confidence right now.

I suspect the next good Tigers team, hopefully in my lifetime, will consist of homegrown pitching and a lineup mostly populated by free agent signings, trades, and a couple of guys via the minors.  Hope that Avila can hit on the trades and FA’s.  His track record has been a bit spotty to date.

 

the win/lose records of MiLB teams don't concern me. There are a couple hundred guys in the system and you only need a handful of stars coming through at any given time to keep an MLB team replenished. The rest are just filler and the level of their play is less important than that a few very good players are in the mix. Or another way to put it is that you will get a winning MiLB system drafting a lot of high floor guys, but you win at the MLB level by hitting on a very few high ceiling guys.

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5 minutes ago, Yoda said:

While I agree, in general, it also doesn't really say much because there's a lot more to it than that. 

Al Avila is Clint Eastwood in The Mule. Sure, the guy knew everything about flowers. Probably more than most modern florists. The problem is, he refused to adapt with the times and could no longer maintain a successful business. He never learned to use a computer and though his way was good enough, as it was 20 years prior.

This is what the Tigers are doing, and it starts with their GM. 

And saying Al is doing a good job because... Jake Rogers? Is like saying Clint is doing a good job because someone drove by and bought a dozen tulips. You aren't looking at the whole picture. 3 great prospects doesn't indicated a job well-done. 

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