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cruzer1

2019 MLB Draft thread

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We'll get one...

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Adam (Boston): I know we are a long way off, but how many "sure fire" top 100 prospects do you see in this years draft right away?


Josh Norris: Adley Rutschman, Bobby Witt, Andrew Vaughn, CJ Abrams, JJ Bleday and Riley Greene come to mind.

 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/?1559131396

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1 hour ago, RatkoVarda said:

this has all college hitter stats in one place

https://d1baseball.com/statistics/

Thanks for posting - great link.

I'm hoping Vaugn falls to Det, but it looks like they should get a nice bat regardless - unless AA screws it up

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I see the Tigers taking Lodolo....just to tick everyone off.

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21 hours ago, TigerNation said:

Fangraphs with a new two round mock draft has the Tigers picking Vaughn and Matt Wallner.

Wallner would be a steal. I think he will be gone though.

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I am hoping a college bat versus a high school bat. Our entire system is void of any power.

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8 hours ago, calpon said:

I see the Tigers taking Lodolo....just to tick everyone off.

He will become known as Lololol

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I listened to Law on the BBTN podcast. Some highlights:

He is very high on Vaughn, perhaps moreso than most. He says for him, Rutschman is #1 but it is not some big spread btwn him and Vaugh. Rutschman is not in a tier of his own. He sees Rutschman and Vaughn as tier 1. Tier 2 is Witt, Bleday, Greene.

"Vaughn has a chance to be a real star bc of the kind of hitter he is. He’s got a great swing. A really good approach. Power. You can look at him and think he could be a Rhys Hoskins/Goldscmidt type of RHH. It’s not loud, or flashy but the swing works. the plate discipline is so good and there is enough strength to hit for power."

His draft order is similar to what was posted a couple days ago. Though he's hearing more and more that the Orioles could surprise and take Vaughn. This scenario would be bad for those hoping for a college bat at 5, bc it sounds like the only way that happens is if the White Sox take Abrams at 3, which Law sees as a real possibility since Kenny Williams is heavily involved in draft and loves Abrams. And if Vaughn goes 1-1, Rutschman probably slips to 3, where White Sox would gladly grab him. 

For the Tigers at 5, Law says, "Vaughn stops there. Greene looks like pick if not. Although, within last 2 days I've heard that Lodolo to Detroit is a real possibility. They may decide they don’t want to go to the HS route. They don’t want to wait that long for a high school player and just go the college route. If Vaughn and Bleday are gone, that means Lodolo." 

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Wallner has had arm problems/forearm injury this past year.  He's pretty risky.

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Funny how all season it's been "Tigers locked in on Greene" - even hearing they'd take him over Bleday and even Vaughn -  to "Tigers don't want to wait for a HS player, really want a college player, seriously considering a pitcher at 5 when the clear top 6 players in draft are all hitters.

This shows

1. How important it is to tank properly. One more loss and the Tigers pick 4 and will come away with one of the big college bats for sure, maybe even have their choice of 2.

2. College players, especially bats, all seem to move up as draft gets closer. 

I'm fine with Greene as the pick if Vaughn and Bleday are gone. I'd rather have him than Lodolo. If AA is determined to take a college player and those guys are gone, I think I'd rather roll the dice on Hunter Bishop than Lodolo. Another mock had Tigers linked to Bishop recently, and if the truth is, they really would rather have a college player, this makes a lot of sense. 

3. it's one thing to take an elite college bat over an elite HS bat... and Rutschman, Vaughn and Bleday all seem to qualify. But it feels just as risky to gamble on the next tier of college bat/player, like a Bishop or Lodolo, when there are elite HS options like Greene and Abrams. 

Last year, Bohm, Madrigal and India (good but not elite) all shot up into the top 5 - over elite HS prospects like Kelenic and Gorman. 1 year later, none of those college bats are lighting the world on fire (all are doing okay to pretty good in A+ ball- tho Bohm has picked it up) while the hs kids have been great. Kelenic is in A+ now, same level as the college guys. 

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6 minutes ago, irvink said:

Funny how all season it's been "Tigers locked in on Greene" - even hearing they'd take him over Bleday and even Vaughn -  to "Tigers don't want to wait for a HS player, really want a college player, seriously considering a pitcher at 5 when the clear top 6 players in draft are all hitters.

This shows....

It BETTER be showing nothing but a smokescreen.

I have no interest in Lodolo, whatsoever.

I agree, take the HS bat, not the college arm. It's ridiculous to pass up an impact bat at this point. Tigers Top 6 S/B: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Abrams, Bleday, Greene. No exceptions. And... obviously one of those 6 will be available at 5. Don't **** around AA...

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14 minutes ago, 84 Lives!!! said:

It BETTER be showing nothing but a smokescreen.

I have no interest in Lodolo, whatsoever.

I agree, take the HS bat, not the college arm. It's ridiculous to pass up an impact bat at this point. Tigers Top 6 S/B: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Abrams, Bleday, Greene. No exceptions. And... obviously one of those 6 will be available at 5. Don't **** around AA...

In fact, 2 of those players will be avail for the Tigers. We can be pretty confident Rutschman and Witt won't.

My preference would be: Vaughn --> Bleday --> Greene --> Abrams --------> Bishop ---------> Lodolo

If the college bats are off the board and Tigers have choice of Greene or Abrams and go with Lodolo, maybe we can just take it to mean that Avila doesn't think he has the luxury to wait until 2023 or so for this draft pick to contribute. 

His contract is up next year and he could be feeling the heat, needing to show he's got an arsenal of good young players ready to come up in next year or so. 

You can never have enough SP, but man, the system is bereft of impact bats.

It's too soon to tell how good next year's draft class will be - and if it will be bats or arms near the top, too early to know for sure how high the Tigers will pick.

Point is, Monday is the one, for sure chance the team has to add an impact bat to the system. Not doing so would feel like malfeasance.

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I only slipped Abrams higher as I counted defensive position as well as bat... 

Vaughn's so high based on superior bat/ power, and adequate defense at 1B.

It shouldn't even get to Bishop-Lodolo... but if AA is so against a HS bat all of a sudden, take Bishop. But yeah, 2 of the top 6 will be available so... take Vaughn, or Bleday, or Abrams, or Greene... Just take a damn bat AA...

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6 minutes ago, irvink said:

... Point is, Monday is the one, for sure chance the team has to add an impact bat to the system. Not doing so would feel like malfeasance.

The overriding factor...

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Callis has his latest mock up. The Tigers-relevant bits... Interesting that the Padres are so high on Greene. Some pretty good talent evaluators there. It's hard to stomach waiting nearly 4 years for a Greene to be MLB ready, also hard to pass on him for a Lodolo.

3. White Sox: Andrew Vaughn, 1B, California

This pick will dictate what happens at Nos. 5 and 6. If Chicago opts for a college bat for the fourth straight year in Vaughn, then Hagerty HS (Oviedo, Fla.) outfielder Riley Greene lands with Detroit and Blessed Trinity Catholic HS (Roswell, Ga.) shortstop CJ Abrams winds up with San Diego. If the White Sox scratch their itch for an up-the-middle athlete with Abrams, then Vaughn goes to the Tigers and Greene to the Padres.

4. Marlins: JJ Bleday, OF, Vanderbilt

Miami would consider Abrams and Greene but may prefer a college bat. The guess here is the Marlins would take Bleday over Vaughn if presented with both options, and they're also kicking the tires on Arizona State center fielder Hunter Bishop.

5. Tigers: Riley Greene, OF, Hagerty HS (Oviedo, Fla.)

Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Bleday, Greene and Abrams figure to be the first six selections in a variety of possible orders. If that doesn't happen, it could be Detroit that looks elsewhere. The Tigers do like Greene but could be tempted by a faster-arriving collegian such as Bishop or Texas Christian left-hander Nick Lodolo.

6. Padres: CJ Abrams, SS, Blessed Trinity Catholic HS (Roswell, Ga.)

If San Diego were choosing third with Rutschman and Witt off the board, Greene would be the favorite. He gets to No. 6 if Chicago takes Abrams. The Padres likely will take whichever of the top six position players remains, and it's not clear who the alternative might be.

7. Reds: Nick Lodolo, LHP, Texas Christian

Cincinnati would pounce on any of the top six hitters who fell to No. 7, with the exception of Abrams. The Reds have been linked to the consensus top college pitcher (Lodolo) all spring yet still are doing their due diligence on the other college arms (San Jacinto JC right-hander Jackson Rutledge, West Virginia righty Alex Manoah, Kentucky left-hander Zack Thompson). Don't rule out the best remaining college position players, such as Bishop and Baylor catcher Shea Langeliers.

8. Rangers: Hunter Bishop, OF, Arizona State

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-mock-draft-on-may-31?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

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This time of year, I wouldn't believe too much of the rhetoric, teams have no reason to let out who they really like.  They also want to get their players at a certain price, and usually will bounce other players as leverage.  Also, teams will settle on a player who will take less money at a certain slot.  Happens every year.

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14 hours ago, irvink said:

You can never have enough SP, but man, the system is bereft of impact bats.

I've always sided more to pitching than offense.  I don't know why, I just have.

But with the evolution of larger pitching staffs resulting in fewer bench bats / platoon possibilities, it seems like having quality everyday bats is more important than it may have been before.

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On 5/29/2019 at 12:36 PM, irvink said:

Kiley has draft chat up. Of interest:

-He believes 75% chance that White Sox take Abrams. 

-He doesn't think the Tigers would take Abrams over Riley Greene.

-He thinks it is pretty unlikely that Vaughn falls past Tigers at 5.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kiley-mcdaniel-chat-5-29-19/

 

Of course the Tigers would take vaughn over greene, right?

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On 5/29/2019 at 12:36 PM, irvink said:

Kiley has draft chat up. Of interest:

-He believes 75% chance that White Sox take Abrams. 

-He doesn't think the Tigers would take Abrams over Riley Greene.

-He thinks it is pretty unlikely that Vaughn falls past Tigers at 5.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kiley-mcdaniel-chat-5-29-19/

 

Rutschman,witt,vaughn,bleday,greene,abrams. If the white Sox pass on vaughn, I will be shocked.

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An athletic article with Waldon and Sakowski? Many on this board will not approve.

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17 minutes ago, kdog said:

An athletic article with Waldon and Sakowski? Many on this board will not approve.

Pass

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6 hours ago, cruzer1 said:

This time of year, I wouldn't believe too much of the rhetoric, teams have no reason to let out who they really like.  They also want to get their players at a certain price, and usually will bounce other players as leverage.  Also, teams will settle on a player who will take less money at a certain slot.  Happens every year.

On his podcast, Callis was saying that most of the info they get about which player a team is targeting comes from other teams, often the one picking just below said team. Teams can change mind of course, but it's not like teams can trade draft picks so not a huge advantage keeping it a secret. And most teams are still talking to 2 or 3 players at this point, even at the top.

The top 8 or so players seem pretty well identified. As for settling on a player who will take less money... Still a lot of speculation that Baltimore will do that. And I would think part of the temptation for the White Sox and Abrams is that he'd cost less than Vaughn. If Abrams doesn't go 3, his best case is 6 and there are rumors that he could fall even further than that. 

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I will read about Walden before I read Waldon.  

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