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5/14 @7:10 Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers

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25 minutes ago, Shelton said:

I think it’s important to distinguish between projection and extrapolation. While they may be five games better than the expected record based on run difference at this point, that doesn’t mean that it projects to being 20 games better. 

But the fact that they are five games better could mean that there is something inherent in this team that will keep them winning more games that the run difference suggests. The key is determining what the true baseline value is for determining the regression. Being five games better right now does suggest that the baseline could be something better than zero. 

We can revisit this in another couple months to see if they can maintain even a modest amount of wins better than expected. 

I don't expect them to beat the Expectation by 20 games, obviously, which is my point.  The five-game advantage so far is an anomaly -- an outlier on an end of the Bell curve.  Over the remaining 122 games, they are, I think, likely to move much closer to the norm.  A team may have characteristics that move it off the center of the curve, but historically, despite the differences in the the character of teams and their playing styles, the departure is rarely very much.  Certainly not five games in every 40.  

They've had two straight 64-win seasons.  Right now an extrapolation from the Expectation would have them 53-109 for the full season.  Their current record projects to 73-89.  If I had to bet, I'd go with them winding up pretty close to the midpoint between those records.  Having a lot of games against the weak AL Central may keep them from being much worse than that.

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7 minutes ago, six-hopper said:

I don't expect them to beat the Expectation by 20 games, obviously, which is my point.  The five-game advantage so far is an anomaly -- an outlier on an end of the Bell curve.  Over the remaining 122 games, they are, I think, likely to move much closer to the norm.  A team may have characteristics that move it off the center of the curve, but historically, despite the differences in the the character of teams and their playing styles, the departure is rarely very much.  Certainly not five games in every 40.  

They've had two straight 64-win seasons.  Right now an extrapolation from the Expectation would have them 53-109 for the full season.  Their current record projects to 73-89.  If I had to bet, I'd go with them winding up pretty close to the midpoint between those records.  Having a lot of games against the weak AL Central may keep them from being much worse than that.

I know you don’t expect that. It’s just a pet peeve of mine to see the word “project” or “on pace for” used in that context. 

My main point is that when something exceeds expectation significantly early on, it’s worth considering whether the baseline expectation should be adjusted. 

When you say they will move closer to the norm, though, what do you mean? Do you think from this point forward their actual record will match their expected record? If they end up winning five more games than expected over the next 120 games, that moves them closer to the norm also.

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there is nothing magic about pythag though, it is simply a fitting relationship to average team performance, and it's already known that 2.0 isn't even the optimal exponent. The assumption underlying Pythag is that a 500 team loses its average game by the same number of runs as it wins its average game. If your team doesn't play to that expectation over time, its record will depart from its pythag calc. These Spring Tigers combine two factors that contribute to their deviation: Because the offense has been abysmal, the games they win tend to be low scoring - they only win when they get better than league average pitching, which depresses their RS/win, while their second tier pitching is far below league average in quality, leading to very high RA/loss. So there is nothing surprising in the pythag result. But you also expect a team  to address its outlierness over the course of the season. The Tigers are probably going to do what they can to score more runs and get rid of the worst pitchers, which is going to help drive them back to a more normal result. 

But as long a we have three starters and 2 relievers pitching much better than league average, a lousy offense, and AAA pitchers in the back of the rotation and BP we retain a potential to keep beating our Pythag, whilst we beat little else. The most likely result that brings the number back to norm would be Boyd and Turnbull regressing to where our pitching was more uniform  in quality across all games.

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18 minutes ago, Shelton said:

I know you don’t expect that. It’s just a pet peeve of mine to see the word “project” or “on pace for” used in that context. 

My main point is that when something exceeds expectation significantly early on, it’s worth considering whether the baseline expectation should be adjusted. 

When you say they will move closer to the norm, though, what do you mean? Do you think from this point forward their actual record will match their expected record? If they end up winning five more games than expected over the next 120 games, that moves them closer to the norm also.

Well, in this context I see "projection" and "extrapolation" and "pace" to be synonymous, so I guess it's just a semantic preference.  A regular who homers in his first plate appearance of the season "projects" -- at that point -- to about  600 home runs .  But he obviously isn't going to stay on that pace.

And you're right, if the Tigers beat the Expectation by five games over 120, that is closer to the norm than five games over 40, although it is still a departure from the Expectation.  If they do that over the rest of the season, they'll wind up more than their current five games to the good for the full season.  I will be surprised if they do that well, but because they are starting from that five-game advantage as a baseline for the remaining 75 percent of the season, I assume that because of that head start they are likely to end up better than the Expectation.

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3 minutes ago, six-hopper said:

 they are likely to end up better than the Expectation.

Wow....even 6Hop is on the better than expected bandwagon!

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Not sure where the 5-games over PT came from.

In all 40 games through yesterday  ..they have scored 139 and allowed 202.  PT projection is 13-17.  (EDIT: ..Oh - OK, I see now.  Their current 18-22 is 5 games better than 13-17.  Sometimes the mind just works slower than the fingers these days and/or plays tricks on me.)

Their wins have been much closer than their losses.  They have won only 5 games by 3 or more runs so far ..and only 1 game by 4 or more runs.  Conversely, they have lost 15 games by 3 or more runs ..lost 13 by 4 or more runs ..lost 9 by 5 or more runs ..lost 8 by 6 or more runs.  The tend to squeak by in their wins (pitching success) ..and blown away in their losses (pitching failure.) 

In their 18 wins ..they have scored 84 and allowed 46.  PT projection would be 14-4.

In their 22 losses ..they have scored 53 and allowed 156.  PT projection would be 2-20.

 

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3 hours ago, Tigrrfan said:

Not sure where the 5-games over PT came from.

In all 40 games through yesterday  ..they have scored 139 and allowed 202.  PT projection is 13-17.  (EDIT: ..Oh - OK, I see now.  Their current 18-22 is 5 games better than 13-17.  Sometimes the mind just works slower than the fingers these days and/or plays tricks on me.)

Their wins have been much closer than their losses.  They have won only 5 games by 3 or more runs so far ..and only 1 game by 4 or more runs.  Conversely, they have lost 15 games by 3 or more runs ..lost 13 by 4 or more runs ..lost 9 by 5 or more runs ..lost 8 by 6 or more runs.  The tend to squeak by in their wins (pitching success) ..and blown away in their losses (pitching failure.) 

In their 18 wins ..they have scored 84 and allowed 46.  PT projection would be 14-4.

In their 22 losses ..they have scored 53 and allowed 156.  PT projection would be 2-20.

 

As I'm sure you know, the formula doesn't yield direct Won-Lost numbers, but rather an expected Winning Percentage.  The WP that the Tigers' run figures work out to, for 40 games,  corresponds  to a  record of 13-27, and the Tigers are five games better than that.

I suspect that, for most bad teams, and especially for really bad ones, the figures for the Tigers that you cited are typical --  i.e. , that the average run difference in their losses is significantly greater than that in their wins.  

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