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5/14 @7:10 Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers

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8 minutes ago, LooseGoose said:

11-4 Final....So 18-22 at the SparkyMark.

73-89 pace roughly..pretty close to where predicted and actually better than they should be when considering the devastation of the rotation.

I cannot rationally picture a situation in which they do that well in the future. Of course I could not rationally picture them doing as well as they have thus far.  But they’ve taken a lot of hits and I think we’re going to see a lot more games like this. 

I don’t think they’ll lose 100 games but I think they could come close. 

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6 minutes ago, IdahoBert said:

I cannot rationally picture a situation in which they do that well in the future. Of course I could not rationally picture them doing as well as they have thus far.  But they’ve taken a lot of hits and I think we’re going to see a lot more games like this. 

I don’t think they’ll lose 100 games but I think they could come close. 

 

8 minutes ago, Chili Mac Davis said:

I don't see them getting close to those numbers again. The fact they won 18 of their first 40 will help them possibly avoid 100 losses, but I don't see them winning 55 more games. Huh-uh. They've had their best quarter.  I could see a 15-25 quarter coming or even a 13-27. It's gonna be ugly. You realize Ramirez is the likely starter tomorrow night, right?

 

We are on the same wavelength. 

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14 minutes ago, Chili Mac Davis said:

I don't see them getting close to those numbers again. The fact they won 18 of their first 40 will help them possibly avoid 100 losses, but I don't see them winning 55 more games. Huh-uh. They've had their best quarter.  I could see a 15-25 quarter coming or even a 13-27. It's gonna be ugly. You realize Ramirez is the likely starter tomorrow night, right?

You're probably right but it would seem logical that at some point the hitting might pick up a bit and compensate for the decline in the pitching....leading them to similar results.  We'll see.

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The “wait until it warms up and the bats will warm up” thing is bunk. Other teams bats will warm up too. 

They will be sending out AAA pitchers two out of every five times and it’s not like Turnbull, Boyd, and Norris are going to be flawless. And they’re not going to call the kids up from Erie to save us either.  Only a lunatic would do that.

They’re not going to be the Miami Marlins but there’s not a whole lot to look forward to. 

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6 minutes ago, IdahoBert said:

The “wait until it warms up and the bats will warm up” thing is bunk. Other teams bats will warm up too. 

They will be sending out AAA pitchers two out of every five times and it’s not like Turnbull, Boyd, and Norris are going to be flawless. And they’re not going to call the kids up from Erie to save us either.  Only a lunatic would do that.

They’re not going to be the Miami Marlins but there’s not a whole lot to look forward to. 

Those "kids" down on Erie is all we can look forward to. They need to all stay healthy and start showing up in 2020 and 2021. Until then.....ugh

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Although there were obviously problematic aspects to it, this team was once owned by a passionate fan who just happened to be a billionaire. His heirs will not make the mistakes his enthusiasm occasioned, but they’re not going to call the cavalry in to bail out Custer either. It makes me sad. 

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2 minutes ago, IdahoBert said:

The “wait until it warms up and the bats will warm up” thing is bunk. Other teams bats will warm up too. 

They will be sending out AAA pitchers two out of every five times and it’s not like Turnbull, Boyd, and Norris are going to be flawless. And they’re not going to call the kids up from Erie to save us either.  Only a lunatic would do that.

They’re not going to be the Miami Marlins but there’s not a whole lot to look forward to. 

there are some ways it could be less bad:

1)Zimmermann comes back healthy. Ok, I'm sorry, I'll wait while you clean the remnants of the drink you just spewed across your keyboard.....

2)Soto is not as hopeless as he looked in his 1st outing. Heck even JV wasn't in his 1st two. I know, you are laughing again, but I bet not as hard....

3)Funk or Burrows are ready by mid-season to actually pitch at 4th or 5th starter level. See, now it's no more than pursed lips and no laughter - Amirite? We can hold on to that hope probably till the break, when of them will get those couple of starts and dash that remaining hope. But by then we can be lining up our mock drafts for the tip pick in the 2020 draft. 

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9 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

there are some ways it could be less bad:

1)Zimmermann comes back healthy. Ok, I'm sorry, I'll wait while you clean the remnants of the drink you just spewed across your keyboard.....

2)Soto is not as hopeless as he looked in his 1st outing. Heck even JV wasn't in his 1st two. I know, you are laughing again, but I bet not as hard....

3)Funk or Burrows are ready by mid-season to actually pitch at 4th or 5th starter level. See, now it's no more than pursed lips and no laughter - Amirite? We can hold on to that hope probably till the break, when of them will get those couple of starts and dash that remaining hope. But by then we can be lining up our mock drafts for the tip pick in the 2020 draft. 

I like the optimistic G2.

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15 hours ago, LooseGoose said:

It's the classic case of good ideas gone bad.   Had a complete system check at a very well respected shop in Grayling before leaving, new radiator, etc - mechanic decided it needed a new parking brake.   The parking brake on this chassis clamps onto the drive shaft. 

Sorry to quote myself but a phone call this morning told me why the place has the reputation it does - 

The new parking brake mechanism was part of fixing a leaking seal on the rear of the transmission - I guess Ford wants it done together.

As soon as the shop manager heard the story of what happened here's the quote: "Don't worry, we'll cover it and whatever it takes to make it right"  Boom - no questioning, etc.   So I'm pretty happy..

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13 hours ago, Chili Mac Davis said:

I don't see them getting close to those numbers again. The fact they won 18 of their first 40 will help them possibly avoid 100 losses, but I don't see them winning 55 more games. Huh-uh. They've had their best quarter.  I could see a 15-25 quarter coming or even a 13-27. It's gonna be ugly. You realize Ramirez is the likely starter tomorrow night, right?

 

Pythagoras says that they should be 13-27.  Five games better than the Expectation after only 40 games is a lot.  Actually, A LOT.  So an unpleasant correction is likely to be bearing down on us.  As Snow White's stepmother discovered, you can do it with mirrors for only so long. 

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11 minutes ago, six-hopper said:

Pythagoras says that they should be 13-27.  Five games better than the Expectation after only 40 games is a lot.  Actually, A LOT.  So an unpleasant correction is likely to be bearing down on us.  As Snow White's stepmother discovered, you can do it with mirrors for only so long. 

Are you implying that Gardy is Snow White's stepmother?

 

 

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12 minutes ago, six-hopper said:

Pythagoras says that they should be 13-27.  Five games better than the Expectation after only 40 games is a lot.  Actually, A LOT.  So an unpleasant correction is likely to be bearing down on us.  As Snow White's stepmother discovered, you can do it with mirrors for only so long. 

But Gardenhire's managing is going to create a bad pythagorean because he skews his relief pitching choices to allow blow-outs to get worse. This is the correct strategy for a team with short pitching - save you best resources only for games where you have a shot, but it does produce a skewed Pythag. They are going to get worse, but I think that has more to do with the pitching injuries piling up than because they must regress to their Pythag as I think that is in big part the result of a conscious strategy.

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I don't think relief pitching strategy will skew the pythagorean by that much in 40 games especially when most managers use a similar strategy.   I think it's because their bad pitchers are worse than other team's bad pitchers which leads to a lot of blow out losses.  

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32 minutes ago, LooseGoose said:

Are you implying that Gardy is Snow White's stepmother?

 

 

He does bear a striking resemblance to Charlize Theron.

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14 hours ago, LooseGoose said:

11-4 Final....So 18-22 at the SparkyMark.

73-89 pace roughly..pretty close to where predicted and actually better than they should be when considering the devastation of the rotation.

The were also 18-22 last year after 40 games ..and then at various other points they were 28-30 (which projects to 78-84) ..and 31-35 (projects to 76-86) ..and 36-37 (projects to 80-82.)

As we all know, they finished 64-98.

I would not bet against them losing 100 this year.

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25 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

lot of blow out losses.  

well I wasn't going to go there but yes, there is a statistics issue that you well know but I wasn't going to go there, which is that runs in a game do not really distribute std normal since the minimum score is limited (at zero) and the maximum is not, thus run scoring is more strictly Poisson and the pythagorean assumption breaks down for team with a larger than average number of blowouts. That said, I still think Gardy is more open to being blown out to save his better relievers than the average manager.

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4 minutes ago, six-hopper said:

He does bear a striking resemblance to Charlize Theron.

I guess if you put a goatee on her and drank a couple fifths of rotgut tequila the resemblance would be clearer....

CharGardy.thumb.jpg.1f499935314783b1ac7a1bbeb023415a.jpg

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5 minutes ago, LooseGoose said:

I guess if you put a goatee on her and drank a couple fifths of rotgut tequila the resemblance would be clearer....

CharGardy.thumb.jpg.1f499935314783b1ac7a1bbeb023415a.jpg

Well the light hair and the ample chest size are certainly common, but you can't miss that Gardy has blue eyes.

 

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37 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

I don't think relief pitching strategy will skew the pythagorean by that much in 40 games especially when most managers use a similar strategy.   I think it's because their bad pitchers are worse than other team's bad pitchers which leads to a lot of blow out losses.  

But if their bad pitchers are worse than other teams’ bad pitchers, wouldn’t that result in s skewed expected record?

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18 minutes ago, Tigrrfan said:

I would not bet against them losing 100 this year.

Yup. The roster of a 'team' like the Tigers that in the midst of rebuild is a moving target. There is little reason to think the play level of the 25 guys that played in April will the same as the 25 guys that play in August as it is likely to be a very different 25 guys.

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1 hour ago, Shelton said:

But if their bad pitchers are worse than other teams’ bad pitchers, wouldn’t that result in s skewed expected record?

Yes, that is what I am saying. I'm saying their skewed record is a result of their roster make-up rather than Gardenhire's strategy.  

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1 hour ago, Gehringer_2 said:

well I wasn't going to go there but yes, there is a statistics issue that you well know but I wasn't going to go there, which is that runs in a game do not really distribute std normal since the minimum score is limited (at zero) and the maximum is not, thus run scoring is more strictly Poisson and the pythagorean assumption breaks down for team with a larger than average number of blowouts. That said, I still think Gardy is more open to being blown out to save his better relievers than the average manager.

Maybe, but I think the make-up of the pitching staff and low run scoring makes it's easier for him to do that.  He knows there are certain games they can't win based on who is starting.  So, he can almost determine before the game starts who to use out of the bullpen.

That's not to say that Gardenhire is not good at managing the bullpen.  It was his reputation in Minnesota and the results were good.     

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1 hour ago, Gehringer_2 said:

well I wasn't going to go there but yes, there is a statistics issue that you well know but I wasn't going to go there, which is that runs in a game do not really distribute std normal since the minimum score is limited (at zero) and the maximum is not, thus run scoring is more strictly Poisson and the pythagorean assumption breaks down for team with a larger than average number of blowouts. That said, I still think Gardy is more open to being blown out to save his better relievers than the average manager.

Although it may seem strange and counterintuitive, it very rarely if ever happens that, over a full season, a team has enough blowouts -- even if has a lot of them -- to seriously skew its record relative to the Pythagorean Expectation.  Certainly not enough to wind up anywhere near 20 games off the mark, which is what the Tigers' five-game departure so far projects to.  There will probably be some effect from a bunch of blowouts (or, for that matter, an extraordinary number of very close games), but historically it has not happened to a large degree.  The relationship between Runs Scored and Allowed and Winning Percentage, as shown through the application of the "Pythagorean Theorem," has been a remarkably stable one.

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4 minutes ago, six-hopper said:

Although it may seem strange and counterintuitive, it very rarely if ever happens that, over a full season, a team has enough blowouts -- even if has a lot of them -- to seriously skew its record relative to the Pythagorean Expectation.  Certainly not enough to wind up anywhere near 20 games off the mark, which is what the Tigers' five-game departure so far projects to.  There will probably be some effect from a bunch of blowouts (or, for that matter, an extraordinary number of very close games), but historically it has not happened to a large degree.  The relationship between Runs Scored and Allowed and Winning Percentage, as shown through the application of the "Pythagorean Theorem," has been a remarkably stable one.

I think it’s important to distinguish between projection and extrapolation. While they may be five games better than the expected record based on run difference at this point, that doesn’t mean that it projects to being 20 games better. 

But the fact that they are five games better could mean that there is something inherent in this team that will keep them winning more games that the run difference suggests. The key is determining what the true baseline value is for determining the regression. Being five games better right now does suggest that the baseline could be something better than zero. 

We can revisit this in another couple months to see if they can maintain even a modest amount of wins better than expected. 

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