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Grading the Lions 2016 Draft

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Hi there.  I once read that you can truly begin to grade a draft for 3 years, so I do this every year. 

 

The Detroit Lions 2016

Round 1-  OT Taylor Decker  -   An every down starter, not spectacular, but you don't ever scream his name in anger either. 

Round 2 - DT A'Shawn Robinson -  He's turned out to be a really good DT and in a rotation with Hand and Snacks, the Lions are stacked at this position

Round 3 - C/G  Graham Glasgow -  Like Decker, a solid lineman, not spectacular, but great value for the 3rd round

Round 4 - S  Miles Killebrew -   Promising start, loves to hit, but seem to have less of an impact under Patricia.   

Round 5  G  Joe Dahl -  A great depth guy but not someone you probably want taking snaps as a starter too often.   Good 5th round value

Round 5  LB Antwione Williams -  Little impact

Round 6  QB  Jake Rudock  -  So much for the Tom Brady comparison

Round 6 DL Anthony Zettel -  I thought they got a lot out of him for a 6th rounder,  it just wasn't for very long

Round 6 LS  Jimmy Landes -  Quinn still gets hammered for this

Round 7 RB  Dwayne Washington -  Showed some real promise at one time,  good value for where he was picked. 

 

They got 3 starting players out of this draft - and in a rare feat for the Detroit Lions, their Top 3 picks look like long term positive contributers.    Got a little depth in rounds 4/5. 

A-

 

 

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Decker was really good his first season. He had the injury his second season which set him back. I still feel there is some more upside with Decker. Quinn seems to be a safe drafter. Mayhew liked his high risk/high reward players. I wouldn't say Quinn has found a true gem outside of Golloday, but he hasn't blown a lot of picks either.

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B

How did that long snapper pick work out?  Really put the whole team "on notice."  LOL.

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Decker is hard to grade.  As MB stated, great 1st year, injures 2nd year, and very meh last year.   He needs to play much better this year    

A’Shawn is similar.  He has shown flashes that he was one of the steals of the draft and other times he looked to be lost.   I thought he was going to be a one season wonder and came back and played well last year.  This will be a big year for him.   

Glasgow has been a solid 3rd round OL pick.

Killabust has been a wasted pick.  I don’t expect him to make the roster this year.   

3 average starters that have been set back with injuries.  Not bad but not great and there is a possibility that neither of the top 2 picks  get a 2nd contract from the Lions.   I expect Glasgow will get one   

I’d give the draft a B-, but I see how some may have it a little higher. 

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7 hours ago, Buddha said:

B

How did that long snapper pick work out?  Really put the whole team "on notice."  LOL.

I weight the grades.   If 6th and 7th Rounders don't work out, I don't really ding them too hard.     

To me the expectations should be like this.....

 

1st - Round.   Impact Starter to Star    -  Decker is an Impact Starter

2nd Round -   Solid to Impact Starer  -    A'Shawn has been a Solid Starter to sometimes Impact Starter

3rd Round -  Rotation Depth guy to Solid Starter  - Graham Glasgow  has been a solid starter

4th Round -  Good Backup to Rotation Guy - Miles Killebrew was a Good Backup/Rotation guy under previous coaches

5th Round -  Special Teams to Good Backup -  Dahl has been a decent backup,  Williams.  I don't remember hearing his name, did he even make the team

6th Round -  Special Teams Contributor -  Zettel exceeded expectation at first.   Rudock was never really called upon.  Long Snapper never made it, did he?

7th Round - Special Teams Contributor -  Dwayne Washington exceeded expectations at first.  

 

So for the impacts I would expect per round, I think they pretty much measured up in this draft, especially in the first three rounds which are far more important.   This was a really good draft.   

That 2nd Round - The Solid Starter to Impact Starter has been historically where the Lions failed - for decades.  If you go back to the Bobby Ross era, if they had gotten just Solid Starters 75% of the time, this team would have an awful lot better.   The 2nd Round is their Kryptonite and it feels like that in 2017 with Tabor and this year, but it's too soon to tell.  Maybe he's a diamond that has yet to be cut.   

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decent, solid players.  no stars.  no impact players.

solid b.

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You have to grade based on who was available. Looking at the 1st round in 2016, only Keanu Neal was a pro bowler after Decker was taken. Looking at a lot of redrafts, Decker is likely off the board when the Lions pick. You can't draft a star if one isn't there. 

After Robinson, Michael Thomas and Deion Jones were taken. Any receiver who goes to the Saints puts up big numbers. Both picks are probably better than Robinson but you can't win every one. 

Glasgow was a 3rd round comp pick. He was basically a 4th round pick and they got a solid starter on the offensive line. After Glasgow, the only stars taken were Jordan Howard, Tyreek Hill, and Dak Prescott. 

I give the draft an A. Hard pressed to find a team that did a lot better. Mayhew drafted a lot of players with star potential that had question marks. More often than not, those players failed.

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32 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

I give the draft an A. Hard pressed to find a team that did a lot better. Mayhew drafted a lot of players with star potential that had question marks. More often than not, those players failed.

The injury rate in FB is so high that the truth is that depth is just as important as stars. You have to have playmakers, but you have to be able to fill the holes from the players you lose over the course of the season or you end up in match-up heII down the stretch.

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54 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

I give the draft an A. Hard pressed to find a team that did a lot better. Mayhew drafted a lot of players with star potential that had question marks. More often than not, those players failed.

Dallas and Atlanta did a lot better.    

 

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6 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

Dallas and Atlanta did a lot better.    

 

I wouldn't say a lot better. Dallas had the 4th overall pick. You can't blame Quinn for not drafting Elliot if he isn't available. The Lions weren't drafting Dak. Even if they did, he wouldn't have ever seen the field. Jaylon Smith and Robinson had similar grades last year. Brown looks like a great pick for a 6th.  Atlanta did very well. If that is your standard, you'll be disappointed. 

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You said you were hard pressed to find a team that did a lot better than the Lions.  

It took me 3 minutes of looking before I found 2 no doubters. 

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10 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

You said you were hard pressed to find a team that did a lot better than the Lions.  

It took me 3 minutes of looking before I found 2 no doubters. 

I don't think Dallas is a no doubter at all. Just because they drafted Dak late? I'll give you Atlanta. 

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34 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

I don't think Dallas is a no doubter at all. Just because they drafted Dak late? I'll give you Atlanta. 

It’s a no doubter because they took Zeke Elliot in the 1st in addition to Smith and Dak.   Anthony Brown wasn’t terrible either.   Cmon, this isn’t really worth a debate.

If you want a debate, I think Chicago also did better than the Lions 

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7 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

It’s a no doubter because they took Zeke Elliot in the 1st in addition to Smith and Dak.   Anthony Brown wasn’t terrible either.   Cmon, this isn’t really worth a debate.

If you want a debate, I think Chicago also did better than the Lions 

I also mentioned you have to base a draft on who is available. If the Lions had the 4th pick, I'm sure they would have drafted Elliot. Chicago didn't do better. Sheldon Rankins went after Floyd but before Decker who is a better player. Chicago got good value in Whitehair and Howard. 

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48 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

I also mentioned you have to base a draft on who is available. If the Lions had the 4th pick, I'm sure they would have drafted Elliot. Chicago didn't do better. Sheldon Rankins went after Floyd but before Decker who is a better player. Chicago got good value in Whitehair and Howard. 

Chicago, Jacksonville, Tennessee, LA Rams, and the Chiefs simply because they drafted Tyreke Hill.

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That still put the Lions in the top 3rd of the draft.  That's pretty solid.  Like I said: a solid B.  

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2 minutes ago, Buddha said:

Chicago, Jacksonville, Tennessee, LA Rams, and the Chiefs simply because they drafted Tyreke Hill.

Jacksonville, Chicago, Tennessee, and LA all had higher picks than Detroit. It's debatable whether they had better drafts. You can't judge a team because they didn't take players that weren't available to them.

Also, Tyreek Hill may not even be playing next year. His character issues were known heading into the draft. 

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1 minute ago, Motown Bombers said:

Jacksonville, Chicago, Tennessee, and LA all had higher picks than Detroit. It's debatable whether they had better drafts. You can't judge a team because they didn't take players that weren't available to them.

Also, Tyreek Hill may not even be playing next year. His character issues were known heading into the draft. 

Tyreek Hill already has more value in his career than the Lions draft picks combined.

Jax took Myles Jack and Yannock Ngokue in the second and third rounds.  Tennessee got Kevin Bynard in the 3rd round and Chicago got Jordan Howard in the 5th.

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Chicago also drafted Floyd over Rankins in the 1st. Myles Jack had a worse pff grade than Robinson. Still a good player. Again, those players were drafted before Detroit had a chance to draft. Detroit didn't have a 3rd round pick because the previous regime traded it for Gabe Wright. I suppose you can make the argument that Detroit could have drafted Ngokue or Howard in the 2nd or 3rd rounds respectively. Everyone would have complained then that the Lions reached for a player. 

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You’re adding a ton of caveats to the earlier comment that you’d be hard pressed to find anyone that had a better draft than the Lions.😊

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7 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

You’re adding a ton of caveats to the earlier comment that you’d be hard pressed to find anyone that had a better draft than the Lions.😊

No I haven't. I said about 4 hours ago you have to grade based on whose available. If that is a caveat, it's only one. I even addressed players taken later rounds before you and Buddha brought them up. Literally in the post you replied to about finding a better draft, I stated you have to grade based on who was available. The caveat was mentioned well in advance. 

 

4 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

You have to grade based on who was available. Looking at the 1st round in 2016, only Keanu Neal was a pro bowler after Decker was taken. Looking at a lot of redrafts, Decker is likely off the board when the Lions pick. You can't draft a star if one isn't there. 

After Robinson, Michael Thomas and Deion Jones were taken. Any receiver who goes to the Saints puts up big numbers. Both picks are probably better than Robinson but you can't win every one. 

Glasgow was a 3rd round comp pick. He was basically a 4th round pick and they got a solid starter on the offensive line. After Glasgow, the only stars taken were Jordan Howard, Tyreek Hill, and Dak Prescott. 

I give the draft an A. Hard pressed to find a team that did a lot better. Mayhew drafted a lot of players with star potential that had question marks. More often than not, those players failed.

 

 

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So the argument is that teams who drafted better players didn’t do better because those better player were available for them to draft?  Those teams should get credit for drafting the right players.

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10 minutes ago, sagnam said:

So the argument is that teams who drafted better players didn’t do better because those better player were available for them to draft?  Those teams should get credit for drafting the right players.

You have to grade on a curve. If we redid the 2016 draft, Elliot is the 4th best player. Decker is probably around 12th and the Lions drafted him at 16. They got better value for their pick than Dallas did even though Elliot is a better player. You can knock the Lions grade down for not drafting a star when wasn't available for them to draft. None of the teams mentioned as having a better draft had a worse draft position except for Atlanta. 

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On ‎4‎/‎28‎/‎2019 at 12:55 PM, Motown Bombers said:

I wouldn't say a lot better. Dallas had the 4th overall pick. You can't blame Quinn for not drafting Elliot if he isn't available. The Lions weren't drafting Dak. Even if they did, he wouldn't have ever seen the field. Jaylon Smith and Robinson had similar grades last year. Brown looks like a great pick for a 6th.  Atlanta did very well. If that is your standard, you'll be disappointed. 

I'd rather have Decker than 2 Zekes. 

I'm with Buddha though overall, solid B for 3 starting caliber players but not all pro contenders and some functional depth pieces

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