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RatkoVarda

2019 Tiger Prospects

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1 minute ago, tiger337 said:

My current life doesn't allow me to be on top of the game all the time anymore, so I have to resort to flip remarks.  

In the summer, my life would, but with this team I'm now limited by my tolerance for pain.

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14 minutes ago, Shelton said:

Sportz does too

lol

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1 hour ago, Gehringer_2 said:

There seem to be at least two different questions at play. One is whether more tools=greater probability of being a positive run producing player.  I'm skeptical there. The minors are littered with great four tool players who can't hit and will never make the majors. The other stuff is nice but there is a definite hierarchy at the top of which is the hit tool, second is probably speed because a team that can't run the bases is going to score at a rate well below the run expectancy of its hitters. We know that one well having been there a few years ago.

The other has to do with the fact that as defensive metrics emerge hitters who play negative run defense are having their value dinged and JD is an example of that. The question is should that apply to Vaughn, but  I doubt any of us know enough about his 1b play to do more than speculate about that.

I'm not sure I'm convinced JD's value was dinged significantly because of defense. Sure that played a role and probably cut his suitors in half because he was projected to be a DH. JD was also going on the wrong side of 30 and had trouble staying health for an entire season. That certainly has more affect on your value than his defensive limitations. Circling back, I'm not sure how this compares to the valuation of a prospect. The prospect isn't asking for a $200 million contract and is on the wrong side of 30 with an injury history.

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16 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

My current life doesn't allow me to be on top of the game all the time anymore, so I have to resort to flip remarks.  

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9 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

I'm not sure I'm convinced JD's value was dinged significantly because of defense. Sure that played a role and probably cut his suitors in half because he was projected to be a DH. JD was also going on the wrong side of 30 and had trouble staying health for an entire season. That certainly has more affect on your value than his defensive limitations. Circling back, I'm not sure how this compares to the valuation of a prospect. The prospect isn't asking for a $200 million contract and is on the wrong side of 30 with an injury history.

Are we talking about JD’s free agent value or his trade value when he went to Arizona?

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8 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

I'm not sure I'm convinced JD's value was dinged significantly because of defense. Sure that played a role and probably cut his suitors in half because he was projected to be a DH. JD was also going on the wrong side of 30 and had trouble staying health for an entire season. That certainly has more affect on your value than his defensive limitations. Circling back, I'm not sure how this compares to the valuation of a prospect. The prospect isn't asking for a $200 million contract and is on the wrong side of 30 with an injury history.

DH only status crushed JD's value. As you say, took NL teams out of running (tho AZ was in on him to some degree). Also, very few AL teams look to add a DH only type for a big multiyear contract. I thought then that it was a mistake in JD's case and that has proven to be true.

But I agree that the conversation about JD's value has little to do with a 21 year old elite college hitter whom can handle 1b.

 

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1 minute ago, Shelton said:

Are we talking about JD’s free agent value or his trade value when he went to Arizona?

I believe we are talking about the value of hit first position players generally.  JD is an example, but obviously not a prospect.  The instant question, I believe, is whether the Tigers ought to consider a hit first college guy with their 1st round pick or even prefer him to other, more well rounded, prospects.

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1 minute ago, Shelton said:

Are we talking about JD’s free agent value or his trade value when he went to Arizona?

I thought we were talking about free agent value. Even with the trade value, there were things to consider. JD was only under contract for two more months. He had Boras as his agent. He was going to want a huge contract and it was unlikely any team trading for him would be able to sign him. Those were likely bigger factors in his valuation than defense. I would wager his defense had no bearing in his valuation since Arizona knew he was a two month rental and his defense for two months wouldn't cost them over the long term.

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1 minute ago, irvink said:

DH only status crushed JD's value. As you say, took NL teams out of running (tho AZ was in on him to some degree). Also, very few AL teams look to add a DH only type for a big multiyear contract. I thought then that it was a mistake in JD's case and that has proven to be true.

But I agree that the conversation about JD's value has little to do with a 21 year old elite college hitter whom can handle 1b.

 

JD was also a better defender when he was younger and healthier. Probably more an anomaly, but he was nominated for a gold glove and did have some good advance fielding numbers in 2014. Defense tends to decline before anything else so comparing a 30 year old to a 21 year old is silly. I also gather the argument is that JD was undervalued but it's not undervaluing if you cannot play a position adequately.

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3 minutes ago, diaspora04 said:

I believe we are talking about the value of hit first position players generally.  JD is an example, but obviously not a prospect.  The instant question, I believe, is whether the Tigers ought to consider a hit first college guy with their 1st round pick or even prefer him to other, more well rounded, prospects.

All hypothetical but if Vaughn is avail at pick 5 for the Tigers, it doesn't sound like there will be an athletic/well rounded guy worthy of taking/at least in their minds.

It will come down to Vaughn, a great hitting college 1bman or Riley Greene, maybe the best hitting high school prospect, whom profiles as a LFer.

If Vaughn and Bleday are off the board, then the question is more appropriate bc the choice will be between the well rounded/super athletic Abrams v Greene (with the safer hit tool). In that scenario, I hope they'd take Abrams. 

There are other, athletic/better rounded players who will almost certainly not be available (Rutschman, Witt) or who are lower on boards/the Tigers have not been linked to at all (Carrol, Bishop, Stott).

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8 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

JD was also a better defender when he was younger and healthier. Probably more an anomaly, but he was nominated for a gold glove and did have some good advance fielding numbers in 2014. Defense tends to decline before anything else 

I was watching almost every game during JD's time in Det. It seemed to me that he simply got very slow going to his left. Whether he lost his ability to see the ball off the bat or his foot speed just tailed off, it seemed like everything hit to his left was going for a double despite his pretty reasonable throwing arm. I would guess that more than anything killed his metrics even though he wasn't making errors or missing balls per se.

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Just now, Gehringer_2 said:

I was watching almost every game during JD's time in Det. It seemed to me that he simply got very slow going to his left. Whether he lost his ability to see the ball off the bat or his foot speed just tailed off, it seemed like everything hit to is left was going for a double despite a his pretty reasonable throwing arm. I would guess that more than anything killed his metrics even though he wasn't making errors or missing balls per se.

Didn't he have a foot injury around 2014/2015? That may have slowed him down defensively.

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19 minutes ago, diaspora04 said:

I believe we are talking about the value of hit first position players generally.  JD is an example, but obviously not a prospect.  The instant question, I believe, is whether the Tigers ought to consider a hit first college guy with their 1st round pick or even prefer him to other, more well rounded, prospects.

Oh, I know that. I was referring more specifically to where the conversation had veered in response to Lee’s flip comment. 

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21 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

I thought we were talking about free agent value. Even with the trade value, there were things to consider. JD was only under contract for two more months. He had Boras as his agent. He was going to want a huge contract and it was unlikely any team trading for him would be able to sign him. Those were likely bigger factors in his valuation than defense. I would wager his defense had no bearing in his valuation since Arizona knew he was a two month rental and his defense for two months wouldn't cost them over the long term.

I agree with this. The lesson to be learned is that Lee’s flip comment ruined the discourse. 

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2 minutes ago, Shelton said:

I agree with this. The lesson to be learned is that Lee’s flip comment ruined the discourse. 

Finally, something we can agree on.

I'm glad it was merely a flip comment and not a bat flip.

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2 hours ago, RatkoVarda said:

Very early but that whole draft hasn't shown a lot for anyone yet. As per the MLB draft tracker, only 5 guys out of the 1st 200 taken have made any appearance in the MLB, Huira (9)  is the only position player, with 3 AB with the Brewer. Margevicious (198) is in the Padres rotation with a couple of wins. Canning(47)  is pitching for the Angel and beat us once already. Kyle Wright(5)  has 3 starts for Atlanta.

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9 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

Very early but that whole draft hasn't shown a lot for anyone yet. As per the MLB draft tracker, only 5 guys out of the 1st 200 taken have made any appearance in the MLB, Huira (9)  is the only position player, with 3 AB with the Brewer. Margevicious (198) is in the Padres rotation with a couple of wins. Canning(47)  is pitching for the Angel and beat us once already. Kyle Wright(5)  has 3 starts for Atlanta.

He's not close and probably will peter out. But, McMillan is doing better at West Michigan and is still young for the league. 

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4 hours ago, diaspora04 said:

A top 1% bat makes up for every other shortcoming, I believe.

Sure! But if you can predict that from scouting amateurs, I know an organization that could really use you.

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50 minutes ago, Shelton said:

I agree with this. The lesson to be learned is that Lee’s flip comment ruined the discourse. 

My flip remark has spurred multiple pages of discourse.  That has value.  The extra traffic must at least add to the site's ad revenue?  

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Hard to blame the Tigers for drafting Faedo where they did--at the time, they were praised for being able to get him at that pick.  I'm not ready to say he's a bust--he has shown flashes of being a solid starting pitcher.  We have the luxury of patience with him.

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54 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

My flip remark has spurred multiple pages of discourse.  That has value.  The extra traffic must at least add to the site's ad revenue?  

Your flip remark has allowed MWG to upgrade his vacation home plans from lakeview to lakefront.

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5 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

Hard to blame the Tigers for drafting Faedo where they did--at the time, they were praised for being able to get him at that pick.  I'm not ready to say he's a bust--he has shown flashes of being a solid starting pitcher.  We have the luxury of patience with him.

I don't think anyone is still saying Faedo is a bust anymore after his start this spring.

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40 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

I don't think anyone is still saying Faedo is a bust anymore after his start this spring.

gotcha--"bust" was too strong.  

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9 hours ago, Shelton said:

Your flip comment is not helping the discourse. 

Thank goodness an adult was around to right the discourse ship.

On a serious note, if we haven’t sarcasm and flippantism to get us through the next few seasons, how are we going to manage ourselves?

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19 minutes ago, Casimir said:

Thank goodness an adult was around to right the discourse ship.

On a serious note, if we haven’t sarcasm and flippantism to get us through the next few seasons, how are we going to manage ourselves?

Long hours in a hot bath...

But remember to leave the toaster in the kitchen...

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