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RatkoVarda

2019 Tiger Prospects

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8 minutes ago, Shelton said:

I don’t think the whole reliever value thing is all that complicated. They get Ks and limit walks or they don’t. The ones that do are valuable in an abstract sense. 

But they also have increased value for teams that are in playoff contention and decreased value for teams that aren’t. 

They are pretty much the only type of player you can use on demand when a game hangs in the balance. 

Like any other pitcher, there is always the chance of injury, so holding onto a good reliever while you aren’t contending doesn’t make a lot of sense. I think you get more value flipping these guys to contenders once they are proven. The Justin Wilson trade is a perfect example. Or the Chapman trade. Or the miller trades. 

Anyway, they should trade greene and they should also trade Jimenez if he gets his **** together. 

IDK. In this scenario the team that finds itself in contention that hasn't had the foresight to retain a reliever is going to pay a king's ransom to some team not in contention that has one, only for that team to find itself a couple years later in contention having to give up that king's ransom to get back a reliever they need?

I realize that the real fly in the ointment here is the CBA, which forces all teams into a micro short decision horizon. Doesn't mean it still isn't all pretty dumb.

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13 minutes ago, Hart said:

Doesn't Tampa Bay do something where some of their starters only throw a few innings?  The Tigers need to get innovative and do something like this next year.  For example, have Mize throw 3 or 4 innings and then Faedo throw 3 or 4 innings.  It appears we are going to be in a unique situation with a good amount of depth...knock on wood.  Take advantage of it and do something different than the norm.  

this concept gets a ton more discussion than it ever gets tried. I guess the general counter argument is that sooner or later you figure out the 5 best guys and have them pitch more innings and that makes you a better team. But the situation where you not only have too many starters but some are on an innings limit is bit of an extra twist and gives the concept extra appeal. Are the Tigers avant garde(nhire) enough to try it at the MLB level?

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26 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

IDK. In this scenario the team that finds itself in contention that hasn't had the foresight to retain a reliever is going to pay a king's ransom to some team not in contention that has one, only for that team to find itself a couple years later in contention having to give up that king's ransom to get back a reliever they need?

I realize that the real fly in the ointment here is the CBA, which forces all teams into a micro short decision horizon. Doesn't mean it still isn't all pretty dumb.

Yes. The hope is that in two years you have a different guy that gets the job done. If not, yeah, you have to give up something. 

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Relievers come and go.  They are the easiest thing to find...and the hardest.  I wouldn't worry about them in the re-building phase.  We are imagining the possibility that everything comes together really quickly, but that still seems unlikely.  

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21 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

Relievers come and go.  They are the easiest thing to find...and the hardest.  I wouldn't worry about them in the re-building phase.  We are imagining the possibility that everything comes together really quickly, but that still seems unlikely.  

Lots of questions... anyone can answer, not just Lee.

Even if it comes together rather quickly... what does that mean? 2021 we start getting really good and pressing for Playoffs?

Greene is 30 now, and a FA when, after this year or 2020? He's at his peak and contenders overpay, especially for hot relievers, at trade deadlines. If that dynamic is working this year, where we are getting good offers that include what we want... he's gotta be traded, no questions asked.

Someone else will have to take over the reins for closer, whether that's Jimenez or another pitcher...

Boyd & Turnbull I'm holding onto unless we get offered an overpay. That might actually happen for Boyd? Moreso in the offseason than at  the deadline?

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1 hour ago, Gehringer_2 said:

IDK. In this scenario the team that finds itself in contention that hasn't had the foresight to retain a reliever is going to pay a king's ransom to some team not in contention that has one, only for that team to find itself a couple years later in contention having to give up that king's ransom to get back a reliever they need?

I realize that the real fly in the ointment here is the CBA, which forces all teams into a micro short decision horizon. Doesn't mean it still isn't all pretty dumb.

If I were the GM I would work at the assumption that one of my starting prospects is going to be a reliever when all is said and done.

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1 hour ago, LooseGoose said:

If I were the GM I would work at the assumption that one of my starting prospects is going to be a reliever when all is said and done.

Burrows throws hard and may well be passed up by Faedo, Mize and Manning. Turnbull another hard thrower that might be passed on the depth chart - or maybe not. So sure, there are possibilities. I think before last year Manning fit the mold of a hard thrower without the command to start, but not so much right now. Farmer has the arm to be a decent reliever if can improve his command.

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1 hour ago, 84 Lives!!! said:

Even if it comes together rather quickly... what does that mean? 2021 we start getting really good and pressing for Playoffs?

when you look out at the division, over the next two or three yrs, I think it depends a lot on whether Minnesota can sustain anything. I don't fear the WhiteSox, that FO could mess up snow in the arctic. Cleveland's window is closing and their pitching keeps getting thinner, the Royals have no pitching at all. It probably will take a division win, the Central probably won't place a wild card anytime soon. If the Twins turn into a 90+ win team, the Tigers will have to take one more step and maybe another year before challenging for a division than if Minny is just a pretender. 

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1 hour ago, 84 Lives!!! said:

Lots of questions... anyone can answer, not just Lee.

Even if it comes together rather quickly... what does that mean? 2021 we start getting really good and pressing for Playoffs?

Greene is 30 now, and a FA when, after this year or 2020? He's at his peak and contenders overpay, especially for hot relievers, at trade deadlines. If that dynamic is working this year, where we are getting good offers that include what we want... he's gotta be traded, no questions asked.

Someone else will have to take over the reins for closer, whether that's Jimenez or another pitcher...

Boyd & Turnbull I'm holding onto unless we get offered an overpay. That might actually happen for Boyd? Moreso in the offseason than at  the deadline?

It’s impossible to say. Even if things look good they can go belly up. And even when things look dire they can turn out ok. I will say that it is at least better when you project to be bad but with the potential for a leap forward, rather than looking mediocre but with the potential for crashing. 

Next year will be an interesting year with some hope for some leaps. Probably not enough to compete, but enough to make you think they could compete soon. We will have a young team with some potential. They could all suck though. 

But if we are saying 2021 because we have some young guys that should be ready, then you could also just argue 2020. You don’t know when it will click. 

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6 minutes ago, Shelton said:

It’s impossible to say. Even if things look good they can go belly up. And even when things look dire they can turn out ok. I will say that it is at least better when you project to be bad but with the potential for a leap forward, rather than looking mediocre but with the potential for crashing. 

Next year will be an interesting year with some hope for some leaps. Probably not enough to compete, but enough to make you think they could compete soon. We will have a young team with some potential. They could all suck though. 

But if we are saying 2021 because we have some young guys that should be ready, then you could also just argue 2020. You don’t know when it will click. 

Specifically with reference to Greene though... I hope a team is willing to sell the farm for him and AA needs to make that trade happen...

Do it.

Worry about who closes for our playoff contender later, when we actually become a contender...

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18 minutes ago, 84 Lives!!! said:

Specifically with reference to Greene though... I hope a team is willing to sell the farm for him and AA needs to make that trade happen...

Do it.

Worry about who closes for our playoff contender later, when we actually become a contender...

I understand the theory, just am surprised that fans of a team that built itself into a pretty strong position and then failed to cash in any brass rings, in no small part because of poor relief pitching, can be as sanguine as Tiger fans are about the risk of being without it again.. :confused:

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7 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

A quick look at starting pitching prospect readiness levels - strictly on a developmental basis- not performance:

 Turnbull is almost 27, threw 140 inning last season, he is ready to hold this starting gig the rest of the way if he can.

Burrows has thrown 135 inning twice - he is developmentally well along at 23 and they have already said they would be willing to call him up - he just needs to pitch better.

Funkhouser was hurt last season so didn't build on the 100 IP he had in 2017. But he is a little older at 25, and at least has 100 two IP seasons. He is probably ready  - like Burrows his hurdle is pitching better.

Manning and Faedo both threw 120 innings last season. If one or both of them gets to 140  this season either should be be ready for a full time 2020 MLB starting gig. (a couple of September starts in Det after MiLB shuts down would help there - :)

No matter how good Mize is, he would likely be out of gas by the end of the 2020 season if/when he is called up next yr. Even Verlander, who we know today is a once in a generation arm, was out of gas in Sept of '06 being in only his 2nd pro yr. And like JV the most I can see Mize in Det this season would a cup of coffee/say hello start or two.

Franklin Perez at 20 is the furthest behind and needs a lot of time to build up his arm - in his case another yr out - 2021 at the very earliest.

Perez is the one that's on the 40 man, so in my mind, maybe it might be smart to move him to relief, it might help him with durability concerns.

No way I would move any of the top (Mize/Manning/Faedo) prospects up this year, but I think all should be ready next year; along with position players Castro (who's playing better by the week), Daz, and Jake.  I might move Ronny Rod to 2b full time, and have Lugo backup some positions.

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Agree with many in this thread.  I would be conservative with any pitching promotions this year.  I would start introducing Castro, Rogers, and Daz this post ASB as injuries/trades/expanded roster/performance allows.  

By game 40 next year I see the below as a real possibility.  Not a good team below but boy does it get much more fun and interesting to watch the (hopeful) core develop.

C Rogers

1B  Miggy

2B Ronny

SS  Castro

3B  Candelario

LF  Stewart

CF Daz

RF Niko

Bench:  Lugo//Greiner/Castro/Hicks or Peterson or Dixon...some corner guy with pop

SP:  Boyd, Turnbull, Mize, Manning, Norris/Faedo/bargain bin FA

Pen:  Jimenez, Hardy, Stumpf, Farmer, Burrows, Schreiber/Garcia/bargain FA....

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55 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

I understand the theory, just am surprised that fans of a team that built itself into a pretty strong position and then failed to cash in any brass rings, in no small part because of poor relief pitching, can be as sanguine as Tiger fans are about the risk of being without it again.. :confused:

Green is not a proven stud closer and even if he is for real now I don't think the Tigers are on the cusp of contention.  I also don't think the Tigers having bad relievers during the DD years should influence their preparation for their next contending team.  Bullpens tend to get built up and broken down pretty fast.  I think the key is to have a lot of good arms in your system that can become relievers if they don't become starters.  They seem to be on the right track there. 

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3 hours ago, 84 Lives!!! said:

Lots of questions... anyone can answer, not just Lee.

Greene is 30 now, and a FA when, after this year or 2020?.

According to Baseball Reference, Greene will be a FA in 2021.

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6 minutes ago, apabruce said:

According to Baseball Reference, Greene will be a FA in 2021.

Which means 2020.  It's kind of confusing how b-Ref does that.  

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1 hour ago, Gehringer_2 said:

when you look out at the division, over the next two or three yrs, I think it depends a lot on whether Minnesota can sustain anything. I don't fear the WhiteSox, that FO could mess up snow in the arctic. Cleveland's window is closing and their pitching keeps getting thinner, the Royals have no pitching at all. It probably will take a division win, the Central probably won't place a wild card anytime soon. If the Twins turn into a 90+ win team, the Tigers will have to take one more step and maybe another year before challenging for a division than if Minny is just a pretender. 

you underestimate the current white sox front office.  sure, kenny williams still rears his head to make the occasional dumb *** statement, but rick hahn has been making good decisions since they let him be in charge.

the white sox problem has been pitching injuries.  they have a lot of formidable hitting prospects.  the white sox - unfortunately - are coming.

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6 minutes ago, Buddha said:

you underestimate the current white sox front office.  sure, kenny williams still rears his head to make the occasional dumb *** statement, but rick hahn has been making good decisions since they let him be in charge.

the white sox problem has been pitching injuries.  they have a lot of formidable hitting prospects.  the white sox - unfortunately - are coming.

Ok, Chicago. 

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9 minutes ago, Buddha said:

you underestimate the current white sox front office.  sure, kenny williams still rears his head to make the occasional dumb *** statement, but rick hahn has been making good decisions since they let him be in charge.

the white sox problem has been pitching injuries.  they have a lot of formidable hitting prospects.  the white sox - unfortunately - are coming.

Is that you, Lynn?

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28 minutes ago, Shelton said:

Is that you, Lynn?

No sportz, its not.

You don't think the White Sox have a good farm system?

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32 minutes ago, cruzer1 said:

Ok, Chicago. 

Sure thing Homer.

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21 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

Buddha is a closet White Sox fan.  

other teams have good players too.

there needs to be a play written about certain people's fascination with tigers' prospects.  let's call it "Waiting for Kyle Sleeth".

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9 minutes ago, Buddha said:

other teams have good players too.

there needs to be a play written about certain people's fascination with tigers' prospects.  let's call it "Waiting for Kyle Sleeth".

Or, the people that follow the people that follow the Tigers prospects.

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