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2019 Tiger Prospects

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4 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Lugo will get another year, but that should be it, max. His defense may be better than Candelario's, but as it stands, it isn't enough to cover his bat. Both must improve substantially or else he's probably done, at least to the Tigers.

There certainly needs to be improvement next season, yes.  If he improves substantially but the bat is still a little light for 3B, I can see keeping him going into 2021 (his age 26 season).

His minor league numbers aren't all that great, so I question how much he'll hit.  But it ain't like he's holding anyone else back right now.

On the other hand, Candelario's offense has been very disappointing considering how he performed in the minors.

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25 minutes ago, Casimir said:

There certainly needs to be improvement next season, yes.  If he improves substantially but the bat is still a little light for 3B, I can see keeping him going into 2021 (his age 26 season).

His minor league numbers aren't all that great, so I question how much he'll hit.  But it ain't like he's holding anyone else back right now.

On the other hand, Candelario's offense has been very disappointing considering how he performed in the minors.

For Lugo's bat to be a little light he would have to improve substantially, since his career wRC+ of 59 is much worse than a little light. I agree that if his wRC+ could go to at least the mid-80s and his DRS goes well into the black, he may well get another year.

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1 hour ago, chasfh said:

For Lugo's bat to be a little light he would have to improve substantially, since his career wRC+ of 59 is much worse than a little light. I agree that if his wRC+ could go to at least the mid-80s and his DRS goes well into the black, he may well get another year.

He's keeping the base warm until Paredes can come up at some point next season.

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41 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

He's keeping the base warm until Paredes can come up at some point next season.

Sure.  And if we roll back to last offseason and lots of folks were predicting Daz Cameron's MLB debut this season while writing Victor Reyes off.......

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I don't think there's any way Paredes comes up next year. I'm not even sure he starts next year at Triple A. It's going to depend on him, of course—if he's hitting .350/.450/.700 in Toledo, sure, he might come up, but maybe not even then. I think they'll try to time him to come in a year after Mike/Manning/Skubal.

Unless he makes the kind of huge leap I threw up there, I'm thinking late April 2022 at the earliest for Paredes.

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37 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I don't think there's any way Paredes comes up next year. I'm not even sure he starts next year at Triple A. It's going to depend on him, of course—if he's hitting .350/.450/.700 in Toledo, sure, he might come up, but maybe not even then. I think they'll try to time him to come in a year after Mike/Manning/Skubal.

Unless he makes the kind of huge leap I threw up there, I'm thinking late April 2022 at the earliest for Paredes.

I'd be surprised if he stays in AA. He's already got more than a season at the level and he's performed well. He's not gonna be challenged there anymore.

Curious to see how he performs with the juiced balls in AAA.

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Paredes finished 3rd in the Eastern League in batting (tough league...the leader hit .297).  I think we'll see him in Toledo next year

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10 hours ago, Lei Pong said:

Paredes finished 3rd in the Eastern League in batting (tough league...the leader hit .297).  I think we'll see him in Toledo next year

I agree.  A September call up is possible, too, especially if he goes on the 40-man.  Unlike most every other Tiger’s position prospect, Paredes has very good plate discipline and his power is developing nicely.  Cameron was/is flawed.  I hope he can still be a big league contributor—he was young for Toledo, so I’m still optimistic. The power, speed and defense are there.  Just needs to tighten everything else up.

 

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Paredes had an OPS of .864 vs a league average of .716 in 155 PAs in 2018 and .784 vs .677 in 552 PAs in 2019.  Cheap math makes it .802 vs .686 in 707 PAs.  Also, OBP is .376 on a AVG of .291, and 76 BB vs 83 SO, so it seems he is adept with the strike zone.

I would think he is bound for Toledo to start off next season and we will just see how it goes from there.  He probably needs to trim down and add power.  He'll be 21 next season, so the former is probably critical and the latter is something that there is a decent amount of runway left to blossom.

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16 minutes ago, Casimir said:

the latter is something that there is a decent amount of runway left to blossom.

I wish I had runway left to blossom.

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11 hours ago, Lei Pong said:

Paredes finished 3rd in the Eastern League in batting (tough league...the leader hit .297).  I think we'll see him in Toledo next year

Ike comes up in September only if the Tigers don't care at all about manipulating his service time to keep him for an extra year down the road.

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2 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Ike comes up in September only if the Tigers don't care at all about manipulating his service time to keep him for an extra year down the road.

Which, since he is only 20, 21, seems like an it ain't likely to happen.

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14 minutes ago, Casimir said:

Which, since he is only 20, 21, seems like an it ain't likely to happen.

Right. So unless he goes all Vladdy Jr. in spring training and early in the season, that's 2021 at minimum, and then how good does he have to be after that to force an early call-up to the Tigers midseason? I don't think his Erie numbers of 282./368/.416, even in Toledo, forces anyone's hand. The average age in AAA, which is full of guys who have had MLB experience, is something like 26 or 27, so I think a kid of 21-22 with Ike's numbers, and who's outside the Top 100, needs a couple of solid years at that level. And we all know the Tigers aren't in any hurry, so no need to rush anyone up. 

EDIT: I understand that "the Top 100" is fluid and changes with time and depending on whose list it is. At this minute he's outside the Top 100 on Pipeline, although Fangraphs has him #83.

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27 minutes ago, Casimir said:

Cheap math makes it .802 vs .686 in 707 PAs. 

I finally arrived at the same figures .. but curious what formula you used.

For Paredes ..I did this:  ((155*864+552*784)/707)/1000 = ((133920+432768)/707)/1000 = (566688/707)/1000 = 801.5/1000 = .802 ___Then did similar for League Average.

That was long math ..thinking maybe you know a much simpler formula?

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26 minutes ago, Tigrrfan said:

I finally arrived at the same figures .. but curious what formula you used.

For Paredes ..I did this:  ((155*864+552*784)/707)/1000 = ((133920+432768)/707)/1000 = (566688/707)/1000 = 801.5/1000 = .802 ___Then did similar for League Average.

That was long math ..thinking maybe you know a much simpler formula?

Same, but I did it in my head.

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3 hours ago, Lei Pong said:

Math....smath.  Just knock some taters out the park

agreed.  all this braggin' about their math skills and inability to get laid in college is getting old.

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22 hours ago, chasfh said:

I don't think there's any way Paredes comes up next year. I'm not even sure he starts next year at Triple A. It's going to depend on him, of course—if he's hitting .350/.450/.700 in Toledo, sure, he might come up, but maybe not even then. I think they'll try to time him to come in a year after Mike/Manning/Skubal.

Unless he makes the kind of huge leap I threw up there, I'm thinking late April 2022 at the earliest for Paredes.

I always enjoy your takes. But this just too cynical. I understand you have less than zero faith in Avila, but Al is going to need to show something before 2020 to keep his job. Paredes is one of the few chips he has to make that happen., 

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3 minutes ago, SeattleMike said:

I always enjoy your takes. But this just too cynical. I understand you have less than zero faith in Avila, but Al is going to need to show something before 2020 to keep his job. Paredes is one of the few chips he has to make that happen., 

Thank you.

I don't understand what you think the cynical part is?

Also, are you suggesting Al Avila's hold on his job is so tenuous that he can save it only by bringing up Paredes next season?

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7 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Thank you.

I don't understand what you think the cynical part is?

Also, do you believe Al Avila's hold on his job is so tenuous that he can save it only by bringing up Paredes next season?

Cynical because I highly doubt Paredes will repeat AA next year, and I bet you don't really believe that either. And if he puts up another 133RC+ at Toledo, as he did at Erie, I don't think the Tigers would have him repeat AAA in 2021. I get the service time stuff, but by 2021 I believe Avila will have to field a team with a future that looks as bright as the White Sox have right now. Paredes would be part of that. 

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29 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Thank you.

I don't understand what you think the cynical part is?

Also, are you suggesting Al Avila's hold on his job is so tenuous that he can save it only by bringing up Paredes next season?

It's just absurd to suggest that a player is simultaneously good enough for the team to hold him down in order to manipulate service time and bad enough that it takes the player 3.5 years from the time he first reached AA in order to make the majors at the earliest.

Barring injury, no quality prospect takes that long to go from AA to the majors, and I doubt a team has ever held a player down that long in order to manipulate service time.

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21 minutes ago, SeattleMike said:

Cynical because I highly doubt Paredes will repeat AA next year, and I bet you don't really believe that either. And if he puts up another 133RC+ at Toledo, as he did at Erie, I don't think the Tigers would have him repeat AAA in 2021. I get the service time stuff, but by 2021 I believe Avila will have to field a team with a future that looks as bright as the White Sox have right now. Paredes would be part of that. 

You're right, barring a collapse in Lakeland in March, he should be starting the season in Toledo.

If Ike puts up a 133 wRC+ there, which would be something in the area of .280/.370/.530, that would be a **** of a leap for a kid of 21 moving up to a much harder league populated with much older players, half of whom have played in the big leagues. That would make him a 90th percentile hitter in the International League, and he would probably also enter the Top 25 among prospects.

If that happens, I agree that he'd have an inside track to make the 2021 team.

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30 minutes ago, chasfh said:

You're right, barring a collapse in Lakeland in March, he should be starting the season in Toledo.

If Ike puts up a 133 wRC+ there, which would be something in the area of .280/.370/.530, that would be a **** of a leap for a kid of 21 moving up to a much harder league populated with much older players, half of whom have played in the big leagues. That would make him a 90th percentile hitter in the International League, and he would probably also enter the Top 25 among prospects.

If that happens, I agree that he'd have an inside track to make the 2021 team.

Some guy on another site posted an interesting fact about Paredes. In his entire minor league career he has had a total of 2 plate appearances against pitchers the same age or younger than him. So, he's used to facing pitchers much older than him. That doesn't guarantee a thing. At least he is someone with potential to be above average at the plate. 

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