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2019 REGULAR SEASON DISCUSSION THREAD

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1 minute ago, Gehringer_2 said:

Don't forget the 125 ISO differential that is also in the example. And I disagree on 010 OPB. The Tigers were significantly under their run expectancy in the seasons when they were featuring Prince, Cabrera, Victor, Avila et al on the bases together.

Yes, the cumulative effects of many guys that can’t run the bases will add up. But for each individual player, it isn’t going to kill you. 

Cabrera was -8 runs of baserunning value in 2017. This year, he’s at -1.3, which you can extrapolate out to -4 over a full season. The reality is probably something in the -7 range. Not ideal, but not crippling either. 

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7 minutes ago, Shelton said:

Cabrera’s obp is 80 points higher than his batting average right now. And even with his injury, I don’t see an iso of 60. 

300/370/400 seems like a fair line to expect. That’s still not good for a DH, but it is what it is. That won’t kill your lineup.

If he brings his OPS up 50 points to your numbers it would definitely better than where is now. But the trend of him giving away AB is getting worse lately so I'm skeptical. We'll see.

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5 minutes ago, Shelton said:

Not ideal, but not crippling either. 

the cost is all in the alternative.

Victor played because it didn't matter wrt any alternative (and because they didn't care about winning). Miguel will play as long those are both true for him as well.

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4 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

the cost is all in the alternative.

Victor played because it didn't matter. Miguel will play as long as it doesn't matter.

Sure. But if we get to the point where we have a 780 ops guy with decent athleticism that we can’t get into the lineup because Cabrera is still under contract and taking up DH, we are probably in pretty good shape overall.

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22 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

And I disagree on 010 OPS. The Tigers were significantly under their run expectancy in the seasons when they were featuring Prince, Cabrera, Victor, Avila et al on the bases together.

Presuming this is true (I didn't look it up), this is wholly or largely attributable to poor base running?

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Just now, Shelton said:

Sure. But if we get to the point where we have a 780 ops guy with decent athleticism that we can’t get into the lineup because Cabrera is still under contract and taking up DH, we are probably in pretty good shape overall.

Oh Ye of little faith.

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5 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Presuming this is true (I didn't look it up), this is largely or wholly attributable to poor base running?

It seemed to be the consensus. How many factors are there when a team underscores its hitting? A player can have odd luck over a season. A team has so many ABs it is conceivable but harder for anomalies not to have a real basis. 

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Team-wide hitting with RISP and hitting HR with runners on (or off) base are typically the largest factors in under or over-performing run expectancy.

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2 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Team-wide hitting with RISP and hitting HR with runners on (or off) base are typically the largest factors in under or over-performing run expectancy.

but are there teams that deviate from those norms to any degree not assignable as noise? The Tigers were slow for a number of years - though granted since they had the same hitters they could have had the same hitting anomalies. It was striking and sure looked like more than statistical noise over several seasons how consistently better Cabrera's RBI percentage was then Fielder's. But then again teamwise they tended to cancel each other out!

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Surely there can be multiple reasons why scoring was relatively depressed for a given season, and it the causes change season to season in terms of effect.

How many runs were the Tigers under expected for the seasons in question?

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On 6/13/2019 at 6:04 PM, pyrotigers said:

Chris Spurling has to be in contention

Your avatar is not in contention for greatest Tigers pitcher...

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3 hours ago, 84 Lives!!! said:

Your avatar is not in contention for greatest Tigers pitcher...

Disagree, 3.44 ERA in 70 and 2/3rds innings in 2005 as the Tigers turned it around. Set them up for success in 2006. Doesn't really get the credit he deserves for rebuilding this franchise

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This team really misses the leadership of James McCann.

  • Sad 1

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28 minutes ago, Buddha said:

This team really misses the leadership of James McCann.

Who happens to be hitting .321 with an .853 ops this year

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i just want to be there for the biggs rant when mccann is in the all star game this year.

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11 hours ago, Buddha said:

This team really misses the leadership of James McCann.

McCann would have thrown out Leonys Martin at the plate last night.  

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Martin would have been afraid to try with McCann there...McCann is old school...and gritty....to the extent that at times he appears grizzled.

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Are bats relatively cheap?  The Yankees got the AL HR leader from Seattle for Juan (#15 in his "new" org) Then.   If that's the market...Nick as a stand alone might be worth the yet to be born male progeny of an athletic couple from Venezuela.

His value may be maximized as a throw in on the eventual Greene trade.  

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This confirmation that Castellanos has become a mouthy head case about his situation will not go unnoticed by potential trade partners in July.

If the Tigers do manage to trade Castellanos, we might well get a Justin Upton-level return. If they don't, he might get re-signed and end up being a Tiger for the remainder of his apparently diminishing career. Which would you prefer?

 

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Seeing the way some ex-Tigers are doing and how our organization can't seem to really develop any position players,  I think it might be time to consider completely blowing it up.   GM, Head Scout, Scouting Department...........The whole thing.    I don't trust them with this rebuild.   It just pisses me off to see how McCann, Iglesias, Suarez are doing.   Wouldn't be shocked if they traded Nick for nothing and Nick ends up being a .300 hitter with 25 HR for his next team.    The current administration was meant to sign free agent veterans - we need a player development type of approach.   Find someone from Houston or Tampa Bay to run this thing.    

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1 minute ago, Motor City Sonics said:

Seeing the way some ex-Tigers are doing and how our organization can't seem to really develop any position players,  I think it might be time to consider completely blowing it up.   GM, Head Scout, Scouting Department...........The whole thing.    I don't trust them with this rebuild.   It just pisses me off to see how McCann, Iglesias, Suarez.   Wouldn't be shocked if they traded Nick for nothing and Nick ends up being a .300 hitter with 25 HR for his next team.    The current administration was meant to sign free agent veterans - we need a player development type of approach.   Find someone from Houston or Tampa Bay to run this thing.    

Welcome aboard. Although I'd bet that would happen only once the Ilitches sell.

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6 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Welcome aboard. Although I'd bet that would happen only once the Ilitches sell.

I've tried to be patient, but it's not just a GM type of thing, it's the whole thing.  They're just doing it totally wrong and the sooner we make the move, the sooner we can see important baseball again, which seems like it's at least 5 years away.  I no longer believe in the 2021 thing, not with this management.  

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10 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

Seeing the way some ex-Tigers are doing and how our organization can't seem to really develop any position players,  I think it might be time to consider completely blowing it up.   GM, Head Scout, Scouting Department...........The whole thing.    I don't trust them with this rebuild.   It just pisses me off to see how McCann, Iglesias, Suarez are doing.   Wouldn't be shocked if they traded Nick for nothing and Nick ends up being a .300 hitter with 25 HR for his next team.    The current administration was meant to sign free agent veterans - we need a player development type of approach.   Find someone from Houston or Tampa Bay to run this thing.    

Even someone from the Marlins might be an improvement.  

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7 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

Seeing the way some ex-Tigers are doing and how our organization can't seem to really develop any position players,  I think it might be time to consider completely blowing it up.   GM, Head Scout, Scouting Department...........The whole thing.    I don't trust them with this rebuild.   It just pisses me off to see how McCann, Iglesias, Suarez are doing.   Wouldn't be shocked if they traded Nick for nothing and Nick ends up being a .300 hitter with 25 HR for his next team.    The current administration was meant to sign free agent veterans - we need a player development type of approach.   Find someone from Houston or Tampa Bay to run this thing.    

Heck, he practically did that last year.  The fact that Nick is only 27 and you're supposed to improve as you enter your prime years is what makes it so frustrating. Add to the fact that Nick has improved every single season since reaching the Majors.  This team doesn't care about winning, they don't care about extending Nick, so why should Nick care?  He will definitely benefit from a change of scenery and some team is going to make out really well by buying low on him.  

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24 minutes ago, six-hopper said:

Even someone from the Marlins might be an improvement.  

Even I have to disagree with this one. Say what you want about the Ilitches, but at least they're not trying to actively destroy baseball in Detroit. They are simply Detroit baseball's version of the Ford family: loyal to a fault. 

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