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2019 REGULAR SEASON DISCUSSION THREAD

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51 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

One could argue that they have benefited from the injuries since it gave Turnbull and Norris chances to start regularly.   

If Moore had stayed healthy he seemed to have good stuff so I think he has been a loss. But health had always been a bigger problem for him than anything else. But yeah - for sure, I doubt they would have gotten more from Ross or Zimmermann than they have from  Norris or Turnbull

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8 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

If we still have a high pick in 2021 that means at least three of Faedo Manning Burrows and Funkhouser are washouts, Fulmer did not recover, and they Traded Boyd. So that would be a lot wrong. 

I don't expect them to be good next season, but if they are not out of contention for a top pick the pitching pipeline was a fail. 

i'll be stunned if theyre not picking in the top 10 in 2021.  probably top 5.

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6 minutes ago, Buddha said:

i'll be stunned if theyre not picking in the top 10 in 2021.  probably top 5.

If they are picking top 10 in 2021, they probably will still be in 2024.

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1 minute ago, Gehringer_2 said:

If they are picking top 10 in 2021, they probably will still be in 2024.

how are they going to be much better next year than they are this year?  

their problem is they cant hit.  who is going to hit next year? cabrera will continue to decline.  castellanos will be gone and replaced by who?  stewart will still be hitting 230.  jacoby jones?  candelario going to come up and hit 260?

this team is going to suck next year.  hopefully they start to show something in 2021, but the 2021 draft pick will be high.  real high.

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35 minutes ago, Buddha said:

how are they going to be much better next year than they are this year?  

their problem is they cant hit.  who is going to hit next year? cabrera will continue to decline.  castellanos will be gone and replaced by who?  stewart will still be hitting 230.  jacoby jones?  candelario going to come up and hit 260?

this team is going to suck next year.  hopefully they start to show something in 2021, but the 2021 draft pick will be high.  real high.

If you take the same offense and go from 3 starters and 2xTBA to 5 starters you are going to win more games. They already win Turnbull's and Boyd's starts at .425 clip. There will be room for marginal improvements. Castellanos will be replaced by a fielder who will likely hit as well  but field much better, Stewart is improving. Rogers may not hit for average but will provide more HR power than Greiner and better D than Hicks. We will get Willie Castro's bat on the IF. The one area that could certainly be a lot worse is the BP. Don't see where short term help is there. OTOH, we are assuming here the FO stands completely still in the off-season. That is probably doubtful. 

And if Cabrera doesn't shape up he's going to be out of our line-up and probably baseball maybe before next season even gets here so there is even some possibility for improvement at DH. 

Again, I'm not actually arguing they may not fail, only that these young AAA/AA pitchers are the ship they are sailing on. If they are good enough to make a difference it's going to show soon. If they are not they are basically still at ground zero. Pitchers that take a long time in the minors are not pitchers who turn around teams.

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25 minutes ago, Buddha said:

how are they going to be much better next year than they are this year?  

their problem is they cant hit.  who is going to hit next year? cabrera will continue to decline.  castellanos will be gone and replaced by who?  stewart will still be hitting 230.  jacoby jones?  candelario going to come up and hit 260?

this team is going to suck next year.  hopefully they start to show something in 2021, but the 2021 draft pick will be high.  real high.

 So Stewart and Jones are both mirages and will regress.   No one else comes up from the minors.  No one else is acquired.

None of the young starters will improve rotation.    Yep if all those things are true we'll suck.

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23 minutes ago, LooseGoose said:

 So Stewart and Jones are both mirages and will regress.   No one else comes up from the minors.  No one else is acquired.

None of the young starters will improve rotation.    Yep if all those things are true we'll suck.

But they have Lloyd McClendon leading the charge for the hitters.  Astros/Yankees/BoSox/Twins watch out.  The 30th in MLB Tigers are coming

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3 minutes ago, kj2018 said:

But they have Lloyd McClendon leading the charge for the hitters.  Astros/Yankees/BoSox/Twins watch out.  The 30th in MLB Tigers are coming

Lol....part of my point is that it's a stretch to assume regression from their current position that's sorta hard to do.

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Just now, LooseGoose said:

Lol....part of my point is that it's a stretch to assume regression from their current position that's sorta hard to do.

Yup. The Tiger position core had been old so long our ingrained assumption is that they will be worse year to year without a lot of active intervention but this is no longer an old position roster outside of Cabrera.

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Brewers and Astros still in extra innings but JV struck out 15 swinging tonight without a walk. I'll never be over that trade, but admit that I do prefer seeing him put up great numbers with a winning team where it means something. 

His last couple of starts the vertical break on the FB has literally been off of the F/X chart. He is spinning his heater as well as he did 10 yrs ago.

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6 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

Brewers and Astros still in extra innings but JV struck out 15 swinging tonight without a walk. I'll never be over that trade, but admit that I do prefer seeing him put up great numbers with a winning team where it means something. 

His last couple of starts the vertical break on the FB has literally been off of the F/X chart. He is spinning his heater as well as he did 10 yrs ago.

Verlander is likely to be at around 73 wins by the end of this season.  If he plays another 6 seasons and averages 5 a year(considering the way he has aged I don't think that's unreasonable) he will be right around 6th or 7th all time among SP in WAR.  If he plays longer than that and/or ages even better he could possibly be in Walter Johnson territory with the only two people ahead of him being Clemens and Cy Young.   I know he's a big deal to Detroiters but on a national level I think he gets underrated.  He could seriously end up being one of the top 5 pitchers in the history of baseball yet he doesn't get a ton of recognition. 

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14 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

I think if I read the charts right Turnbull worked 119 in the minors and another 16 in Det and he is 27 so he may not be on any restrictions at all, or something pretty high and so would be good to go full time next season. 

others look about right to me. Since Funk has already missed throwing about 70 innings he probably wouldn't hit any limit this season. I think they will limit Norris this year.

This team is going to be the perfect test bed for "openers" next couple of seasons as they should  have at least one or two guys on the staff that would be good to hold to 5 to 6 IP per start.

Yeah, I might be wrong on Turnbull having a cap.  I guess given his age, they might just let him loose but be prepared to pull back the reigns if it looks like he hits a wall.

The openers might be one route for them next season.  And/Or, perhaps, maybe they go with 2 of the young SPs and have them combine in the same game?  Say four innings for the opener and four innings for the next pitcher?  Or maybe two trips through the lineup for each?  That might be the way to build up the innings, gain MLB experience, and possibly protect against blowing an arm out?  With so many arms bubbling up around the same time (say the next two seasons) and some still needing to be protected, the Tigers are probably going to have to be creative.  There is going to be a spot on the pitching staff for Zimmermann somehow or another.

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8 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

If Moore had stayed healthy he seemed to have good stuff so I think he has been a loss. But health had always been a bigger problem for him than anything else. But yeah - for sure, I doubt they would have gotten more from Ross or Zimmermann than they have from  Norris or Turnbull

It'd be nice to be able to bring Moore back for next season.  Granted it was only two starts, but there seemed to be reason to believe he was poised for a rebound year coming out of Lakeland.

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8 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

If you take the same offense and go from 3 starters and 2xTBA to 5 starters you are going to win more games. They already win Turnbull's and Boyd's starts at .425 clip. There will be room for marginal improvements. Castellanos will be replaced by a fielder who will likely hit as well  but field much better, Stewart is improving. Rogers may not hit for average but will provide more HR power than Greiner and better D than Hicks. We will get Willie Castro's bat on the IF. The one area that could certainly be a lot worse is the BP. Don't see where short term help is there. OTOH, we are assuming here the FO stands completely still in the off-season. That is probably doubtful. 

And if Cabrera doesn't shape up he's going to be out of our line-up and probably baseball maybe before next season even gets here so there is even some possibility for improvement at DH. 

Again, I'm not actually arguing they may not fail, only that these young AAA/AA pitchers are the ship they are sailing on. If they are good enough to make a difference it's going to show soon. If they are not they are basically still at ground zero. Pitchers that take a long time in the minors are not pitchers who turn around teams.

Are we sure Castellanos will be replaced by a fielder who will likely hit as well?  The fielding isn't what I would debate.  It just depends upon what route they take. 

Stay in house, go with Cameron in the OF (be it RF or move Jones to RF?)?  He hasn't been hitting consistently in Toledo.  They could go with Peterson, but the 5 BB/36 SO is a bit worrisome I would think.  They could go with Mahtook, I suppose, just as filler.  Whichever way, I'm not sure that there is an offensive equivalent to Castellanos.  But, yes, the defensive upgrade is there.

I do assume that the offseason will be relatively quiet.  Maybe an arm or two.  Maybe a middle infielder (which could spring Goodrum for more time in RF), or maybe they do promote Castro.

Edit to add:  I don't see Cabrera out of baseball anytime soon.  I think that's crazy talk.  He might find himself injured more often, but he won't be out of baseball. The Tigers won't cut him, and he won't retire.

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Before, during, or after Nick changed agents, was there ever a single conversation at all between parties regarding an extension? I’m not aware of anything/nothing which I find a little odd, even if both sides were looking elswhere.

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8 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

Yup. The Tiger position core had been old so long our ingrained assumption is that they will be worse year to year without a lot of active intervention but this is no longer an old position roster outside of Cabrera.

how much progression do you expect?  in one year you expect enough offensive talent to come through the organization to lift them out of the bottom third of the league?

have you seen their minor leagues?  to get to where they would have to be next year to not have a top ten pick, youre talking about rogers and cameron coming to the majors and performing better than they ever have in the minors.

honestly, maybe these guys turn into decent major league hitters in 2 or 3 years but its not going to be NEXT year.  nor do i expect mize or manning to come up and suddenly be maddux and glavine.  it takes time.

there is little chance the tigers arent picking in the top 10 in 2021.  i cant believe someone is seriously arguing against this.

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23 minutes ago, 1776 said:

Before, during, or after Nick changed agents, was there ever a single conversation at all between parties regarding an extension? I’m not aware of anything/nothing which I find a little odd, even if both sides were looking elswhere.

Why would there be talks of an extension?

Nick never has been valuable enough to make buying up arbitration years a priority, and he sucks this season, so here we are. 

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42 minutes ago, Buddha said:

 

there is little chance the tigers arent picking in the top 10 in 2021.  i cant believe someone is seriously arguing against this.

If they do get two front end starters by say -may next season, they will better. They can't help but be - yes - even with the *same* offense.

What I will stand by is what I actually wrote, which is that if Manning/Faedo/Burrows/Funkhouser are not good enough to make a difference by the end of next season, whey will bad for a lot longer than 2021.

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1 minute ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Why would there be talks of an extension?

Nick never has been valuable enough to make buying up arbitration years a priority, and he sucks this season, so here we are. 

Biggs,  enjoyed the opinion piece, and agree with your point for the most part, but going back to my question, to anyone’s knowledge, is it a fact neither side spoke to each other at all about the future? Yes or no? Again, I would find that odd if for no other reason than a due diligence responsibility. This would/could even include Avila letting know Nick there would be no conversation about a future for him in Detroit. 

My opinion (free of course) is that a GM should make the player aware of his standing with a team in this case, whatever it is. To not do so is, again, my opinion, is very unprofessional.

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50 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Why would there be talks of an extension?

Nick never has been valuable enough to make buying up arbitration years a priority, and he sucks this season, so here we are. 

No the only talk I remember that Nick saying that his side was ready to talk - but they weren't talking. 🤔

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There are 25 men on the roster, far more in the organization.  The vast majority know they are on year to year deals without needing to be explicitly told where they stand.  Players know where they stand in the org most of the time.

Setting that aside, specific to Nick, I suspect *something* was said, either to him or his agent.  Not sure why it would be assumed nothing was said.

But, presuming nothing was said, well, that is a message in and of itself.  I don't think that is desirable, but I don't know as it is all that damning either.  If extending him isn't a priority to the front office, they presumably are focused on higher priority (in their mind) activities, such as scouting for the draft or evaluating trade opportunities.  As suggested before, they probably would or did tell his agent they would like to revisit the topic in two months or whatever once the draft and trade season pass.

Whatever.

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18 minutes ago, 1776 said:

My opinion (free of course) is that a GM should make the player aware of his standing with a team in this case, whatever it is. To not do so is, again, my opinion, is very unprofessional.

I'm not sure if Nick has any definable standing to be made aware of - is the team supposed to make one up and lie to him about it? April "You're my guy!"; June "Sayonara - you're off to SanDiego!". Avila made no secret he's been on the block since the end of last season. He certainly knew that and I believe Avila was honest with players about that. Nick's standing remains in flux pending both his offense and defense. One has improved the other has regressed, which means he does not control his own destiny, but is subject to the unknowns of whether the players behind him pass him on the depth chart. Dixon is pretty close to having already done that - possibly Reyes, Cameron or Peterson by season end as well. They are not going to pay starter's money or term to a forth/fifth OF. What else is there to know/understand?

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Exactly.

He isn't established enough or valuable enough to the org, rightly or wrongly, to handle as anything other than a wait and see approach.

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I mean the fact that they've yet to talk an extension with him should be enough proof for Nick that they aren't interested.  If they believed in him and thought he'd be a worthwhile investment they would've tried signing him before this year.   

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