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IdahoBert

2019 REGULAR SEASON DISCUSSION THREAD

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18 minutes ago, Stanley68 said:

They do the same thing with the draft, they concentrate on college players, their top 30 BA list had just 4 high school guys. Although that's probably Chaad trying to find the next Dustin Predioa.

yeah - I think you do have to pick a lot of young position players (i.e. HS, overseas)  if you are going to hit on the biggest winners. There is a lot more risk but that is also where the reward is likely to be. The All-star, impact, 2/3/4 types of hitters are already blowing up at 19-20 - you don't want them 'wasting' their development time in the relative low intensity of college ball. College pitchers OTOH make a lot more sense to me.

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Pretty close to calling this one:

 

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What are the New York Yankees doing right that other teams do not do right?  Yeah I know they throw money around, but without any high draft picks in years they somehow seem to come up with players that other teams do not. 

Do they scout better, do they develop better? Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres. Jeter. Mariano Rivera.  It’s tedious to tally them up. They always seem to have guys in their organization that they didn’t shell out $200 or $300 million to sign. 

Even though they have unlimited funds,  relatively speaking, they seem to be better and smarter than other teams, especially our own. Am I totally off base thinking this? 

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8 minutes ago, IdahoBert said:

What are the New York Yankees doing right that other teams do not do right?  Yeah I know they throw money around, but without any high draft picks in years they somehow seem to come up with players that other teams do not. 

They also are very good at zeroing on the best players in other team's systems and prying them away.

Between sitting in Baseball Mecca and probably almost no non-player salary limit, I imagine that they pretty much get their pick of the top front office personnel. Scouting takes time, money and dedication. Yankees can cover that.

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5 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

They also are very good at zeroing on the best players in other team's systems and prying them away.

Between sitting in Baseball Mecca and probably almost no non-player salary limit, I imagine that they pretty much get their pick of the top front office personnel. Scouting takes time, money and dedication. Yankees can cover that.

It's also very easy for them to get international talent because they are the most famous baseball team in the world and players dream of playing for the Yankees.  

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6 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

yeah - I think you do have to pick a lot of young position players (i.e. HS, overseas)  if you are going to hit on the biggest winners. There is a lot more risk but that is also where the reward is likely to be. The All-star, impact, 2/3/4 types of hitters are already blowing up at 19-20 - you don't want them 'wasting' their development time in the relative low intensity of college ball. College pitchers OTOH make a lot more sense to me.

Take Tampa Bay for example. In the last 10 years or so they have drafted and developed about a dozen good starting pitchers that had nice runs of success. James Shields, Wade Davis, Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Moore, Alex Cobb, Jake McGee, Blake Snell and a number of others were all drafted from high schools. Even guys they traded for like Archer and Odorizzi were HS school guys.

Drafting college guys at the top of the draft makes sense. If they are rated that highly they must have MLB ready stuff with little projection needed to see them at the top of a rotation. Over use in college is a concern as well as adapting the pitching style from the aluminum bat to wood. 

But beyond that going the HS route seems to make more sense to me. If i was the father of a young pitcher with MLB ability i would rather he went pro out of high school then pitch even a couple of years for a college coach that may not have his best interests in mind.

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As someone stated before, there aren't any market efficiencies left. And if there were, I have a hard time believing the Tigers would find it.

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On 5/18/2019 at 6:00 PM, Lei Pong said:

 

No wonder Cabrera is out of shape.  He probably gets these things from seven different families on father’s day.

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3 hours ago, kdog said:

Pretty close to calling this one:

 

I wouldn't pull the plug on him as a lefty just yet.

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1 hour ago, Gehringer_2 said:

They also are very good at zeroing on the best players in other team's systems and prying them away.

Between sitting in Baseball Mecca and probably almost no non-player salary limit, I imagine that they pretty much get their pick of the top front office personnel. Scouting takes time, money and dedication. Yankees can cover that.

 

56 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

It's also very easy for them to get international talent because they are the most famous baseball team in the world and players dream of playing for the Yankees.  

Thank you that makes great sense. It also makes me very sad.

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among the doom and gloom (deserved) about the hitting, I will note that JaCoby Jones started May with an OBP at 217 but for the month of May so far has been at 304. 

And the enigma which is Cabrera continues. For May he has reduced his K rate to 20%,  even with the mini-slump last week has an OBP for the month of 367, yet continues to slug at an utterly anemic 364 over the same period. He is walking at a decent rate, not striking out excessively, hitting for average,  in fact is on pace for a 173 hit season, yet not one ball has carried over any fence this month. This is becoming epic.

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19 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

Didn't Avila literally grow up around the Dodger org? Haven't they always worked Latin America?

 

19 hours ago, Stanley68 said:

Look I'll bash AA and the Tigers development team as much as anyone but this is not true. AA was an international scout in his younger days and when he was with the Marlins had a few hits including Miggy

And they have had a few hits here like Saurez, Adames, and Jimenez here. Probably says something that the only good positional guys they signed recently developed after they traded them. They just haven't had very many. Has Detroit had a SP come out of latin america since DD and AA arrived? The Braves have very good prospects coming up every year it seems.

IMO it is part that they have a spread the money around approach to international signings. They would rather sign ten 5'9 middle infielders and 6'0 pitchers than a a couple of top guys. And part is they just don't develop hitters very effectively.

They do the same thing with the draft, they concentrate on college players, their top 30 BA list had just 4 high school guys. Although that's probably Chaad trying to find the next Dustin Predioa.

Granting that Avila was a child when his dad was with the Dodgers, have we been a major player in the Latin market with an Al Avila who learned to be an expert at his father's knee?

We can name a few blind squirrel-nut hits for nearly any organization (although claiming victory on Adames and Jimenez seems a bit premature), but the indisputable fact is that the Tigers are way, way behind on the international free agent market, and always have been. And reiterating their strategy of spreading a few dollars around to a high volume of players hoping for another lottery hit on the order of Eugenio Suarez just strengthens that point. It's the same thing with Asia: the Tigers have never been serious contenders for posting on players from there either, or even picking up ex-major leaguers as reclamation projects from Asia. Their tunnel vision player acquisition strategy has always been draft, trade and sign major league free agents.

Now, this said: they did just drop over a million each on a couple of consensus top-20 17-year-old position players last year, which was in historical terms a little out of character for them, so they might be beginning the process of turning it around there. But dropping cash on players is the easy part. Come back in half a decade and we'll see if they aced the hard part of having actually picked the right ones and then developing them.

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I was with a buddy of mine at a ballgame yesterday—he's a Mets fan, I'm a Tigers fan, so we frequently talk about each other's teams—and he says to me, "I see Miguel Cabrera is hitting pretty good, .290, and he's close to 3,000 hits. You must be happy to see that."

:grin: 

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23 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I was with a buddy of mine at a ballgame yesterday—he's a Mets fan, I'm a Tigers fan, so we frequently talk about each other's teams—and he says to me, "I see Miguel Cabrera is hitting pretty good, .290, and he's close to 3,000 hits. You must be happy to see that."

:grin: 

Did you say "Yeah, and he'll probably get to 500 HR too by the end of his contract...."

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Just a reminder to us that 95% of baseball fans probably have never heard of FanGraphs or Baseball Prospectus.  

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38 minutes ago, Oblong said:

Did you say "Yeah, and he'll probably get to 500 HR too by the end of his contract...."

He absolutely believes 500 bombs is a lock because, I mean, come on, he's Miguel Cabrera and he's got four years left on his contract after this year! He should get 600!

In fact I did mention specifically your post about the 500 homers and I asked my buddy the same question you did: even without the 500 homers, is Miggy still a first ballot Hall of Famer? He said absolutely. I asked him if there were any way Miggy could play himself out of that, and he said no way.

I'm not 100% sure there's no way, because an eight-year run of three or four thousands plate trips, during which Miggy accumulates negative WAR, might well put his first ballot Hall chances in some, if not serious, doubt. Maybe that will even give license for some to seriously bring up the character clause with him. I'm just spitballing on that last one.

This is only my opinion, but I believe that had Miggy retired for any reason after 2016, at age 33, at the top of his game, he'd've been a 90%+ vote-getter for the 2022 class.

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7 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

Just a reminder to us that 95% of baseball fans probably have never heard of FanGraphs or Baseball Prospectus.  

I'm always a little surprised when I meet someone younger than I, who I learn or know is a baseball fan, who's never heard of Baseball Reference.

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10 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

among the doom and gloom (deserved) about the hitting, I will note that JaCoby Jones started May with an OBP at 217 but for the month of May so far has been at 304. 

And the enigma which is Cabrera continues. For May he has reduced his K rate to 20%,  even with the mini-slump last week has an OBP for the month of 367, yet continues to slug at an utterly anemic 364 over the same period. He is walking at a decent rate, not striking out excessively, hitting for average,  in fact is on pace for a 173 hit season, yet not one ball has carried over any fence this month. This is becoming epic.

To see a 270 pound, 36 year old singles hitter continue to trudge out there every game is down right hilarious in today's game. I have to give Cabrera credit for keeping his strategy in check every at bat.

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27 minutes ago, chasfh said:

He absolutely believes 500 bombs is a lock because, I mean, come on, he's Miguel Cabrera and he's got four years left on his contract after this year! He should get 600!

In fact I did mention specifically your post about the 500 homers and I asked my buddy the same question you did: even without the 500 homers, is Miggy still a first ballot Hall of Famer? He said absolutely. I asked him if there were any way Miggy could play himself out of that, and he said no way.

I'm not 100% sure there's no way, because an eight-year run of three or four thousands plate trips, during which Miggy accumulates negative WAR, might well put his first ballot Hall chances in some, if not serious, doubt. Maybe that will even give license for some to seriously bring up the character clause with him. I'm just spitballing on that last one.

This is only my opinion, but I believe that had Miggy retired for any reason after 2016, at age 33, at the top of his game, he'd've been a 90%+ vote-getter for the 2022 class.

I generally agree with all of this.  If I had to bet on it I'd say he's a first ballot no doubter but he's got 4 more years....  his last "full" season, he was at a 95 OPS+.  Given what he's done so far this year is that more in line with what he's going to do?

If he sputters along, on and off the DL, hitting doubles, warning track outs, and all that... people might forget.  The longer he plays bad the easier it is to forget the greatness and writers being what they are, they might think that it was the greatness that was a fluke.

The days of him hitting 20HR are probably gone... he'll be lucky to get to 520..... we could look at cumulative career hit and HR numbers below Rafael Palmeiro when at one point not long ago he was approaching 3500, 600 status.

 

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G2 mentioned earlier that athleticism is not a requirement for someone to be a great hitter, so how likely is it that Miggy's dramatic fall from Hall of Famer to average hitter is due to failing athleticism? He never was an athlete in MLB terms to begin with.

I'm still putting my money on Miggy's hurt, he doesn't want to come out of the lineup (except maybe when the team faces Verlander), and no one is going to bench an 800-pound gorilla, least of all an old school manager. I'd bet if Miggy would truly heal to become his version of 100% (which would also entail him rehabbing to get there, which constitutes another point of failure), he could be, if not peak Miggy, then a .300/.400/.500 guy for another year, maybe two.

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Other HOFers who tailed off at the ends of their careers would include:

  • Frank Thomas - 1st ballot
  • Al Kaline - 1st ballot - compare his #'s in the 50's vs afterward
  • ??

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1 hour ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

I think Miguel was a pretty damned good athlete, FWIW.

IDK, really? So - OK, he was too big to stay at short much past puberty so he was to moved off SS pretty early. Didn't cut it as an OF, went to third as he does have good hands and a canon for an arm but other than that was never more than tolerable. Is a far below average fielder as1b but again, is smart, catches throws well and make good throws on the IF. Is a smart base-runner but not at all fast even for his size. I mean if your definition of athleticism is anyone that has skill to succeed in a sport, then sure, Miguel is an athlete. But would you want him on a pickup basketball game or a track meet or a tennis match? He is a big, very strong man with a fantastic ability to put the bat on a baseball, which far exceeds his other physical talents 

And today his weight pretty much negates whatever athleticism he may have had when younger, yet he looks like he is still close to being able to maintain a near all-star OBP against MLB pitcher without it.

Sure he's probably a lot more athletic than your average joe, but compared to say an NFL tight end or a NBA guard (i.e -sport competitors of similar size) you  think he would have  held his own?

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Not to be glib, but athleticism and being in shape are two different things.

If Miguel had stayed in shape, I do not think there would even be a question about his athleticism.

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