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2019 REGULAR SEASON DISCUSSION THREAD

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I give AA credit for having a clear plan and sticking to it. After JV was traded he said right away that the Tigers were going to stink for several years because he intended to rebuild the farm. Then he made it clear they were going to get right with the times and develop a system that utilizes analytics. As a fan I felt for years that they needed to build their farm and I admired how Boston always seems to have many home grown stars. But also as a fan I'm finding it difficult to endure prolonged historic bad baseball. I think kids do benefit and grow from having more veteran players around. I wish AA would bring in a few more Mercer types -- not high salaries stars -- but solid stop-gap players to assist with development and perhaps allow them to win 70 damn games.

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1 hour ago, Gehringer_2 said:

you notice that Chris stressed the word 'sustainable' in his interview? That is as much of a repudiation of his father as we will ever get, but it still stands as the marker that he is not intending to follow his father's methods.

And sustainability is what many fans are hoping for so that's not a bad thing.   Get them to a level that they can compete yearly and keep them there.

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Let's try a thought experiment:

From 2006 - 2016, the MI/DD duo produced playoff-competitive teams in 8 out of 11 years, and entertaining teams in 2008 and 2010 (with 2015 being the only real "stinker" year that I recall).  Let's say that Chris I and AA (or even DD coming back ha ha) could duplicate that again from 2021 - 2031, but the reboot team avoided the extravagant mistakes of MI.

Let's say that CI avoided some of his dad's extravagant loyalty spending to Miggy and JV and VMart, and he was just a little more cost-conscious (no huge precipitous extensions to Willis, or even to Guillen, though that was more understandable at the time) without undoing the basic drive to spend/win at a playoff competitive level.

Let's say that Chris is healthy and in win-mode for a very long time, has no intention of selling, and keeps the "foot on the gas" to keep the team winning/competitive....

Questions:

1. Would it be safe to assume that the team would have been generally profitable for him as long as he avoided his dad's eccentric loyalty spending and obvious overspends?  I don't see why it wouldn't have been profitable - if they leveraged team revenue over the last 10 years, it is likely that it was turning a profit even with some of the big spending on contracts.

2. Would it be safe to assume that since CI would keep the team that the above model would have been sustainable for him even beyond the initial 11 years?

My point is that Mike I and DD's model, if you want to call it that, was not really unsustainable -- it was sustainable for 11 years, which ain't chicken feed...AND...if they had avoided several obvious/key errors that were apparently personality-driven problems with Mike I's contract giveaway approach, AND if they managed the health, assisted their superstars more effectively, AND paid them properly (no loyalty spend on JV and Miggy, go for the contract with Max), and managed Miggy like Boston did Ortiz, and Houston did by tinkering with JV's approach, and Washington did with Max's contract, why wouldn't that model have been sustainable?

I can't say for sure, but couldn't a very long + successful run have continued, had better star player health and performance management been employed and more reasonable star player contracts had been offered?

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5 hours ago, leflore said:

I give AA credit for having a clear plan and sticking to it. After JV was traded he said right away that the Tigers were going to stink for several years because he intended to rebuild the farm. Then he made it clear they were going to get right with the times and develop a system that utilizes analytics. As a fan I felt for years that they needed to build their farm and I admired how Boston always seems to have many home grown stars. But also as a fan I'm finding it difficult to endure prolonged historic bad baseball. I think kids do benefit and grow from having more veteran players around. I wish AA would bring in a few more Mercer types -- not high salaries stars -- but solid stop-gap players to assist with development and perhaps allow them to win 70 damn games.

Or at least not lose a record number of games at home.  With their 19-53 record at Comerica this year, the Tigers are just five home losses away from the 1962 Mets' record of 58 losses in their own ballpark, with nine home games still to play.  When I go to a baseball game in Detroit, I'd like my team to have considerably more than a one in four chance of winning.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, six-hopper said:

Or at least not lose a record number of games at home.  With their 19-53 record at Comerica this year, the Tigers are just five home losses away from the 1962 Mets' record of 58 losses in their own ballpark, with nine home games still to play.  When I go to a baseball game in Detroit, I'd like my team to have considerably more than a one in four chance of winning.

 

 

I can't imagine next year being any better.  It's going to be the same gang they had this year...except a whole year of Rogers/Greiner, Candelario will be back, Castro trying to hit MLB pitching, Cabrera even worse next year, and the pitching is going to be just as bad.

Another year of Avila and Gardenhire's magic.

I haven't been to a game for a few years (the Tigers lost to the Royals 17-4 last time I went to a game.  I was walking out right as Hosmer hit a grand slam), but are ticket prices still the same or are they discounted?

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3 hours ago, gmoney said:

I can't imagine next year being any better.  It's going to be the same gang they had this year...except a whole year of Rogers/Greiner, Candelario will be back, Castro trying to hit MLB pitching, Cabrera even worse next year, and the pitching is going to be just as bad.

Another year of Avila and Gardenhire's magic.

I haven't been to a game for a few years (the Tigers lost to the Royals 17-4 last time I went to a game.  I was walking out right as Hosmer hit a grand slam), but are ticket prices still the same or are they discounted?

Well, they have some cheap-tickets (some with extras) promotions for undesirable seat locations going to try to get people in the park,  but there's no point in buying those tickets, because you can get the best seats from fed-up season-ticket holders who are just about giving them away in the secondary market.

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I was thinking about taking my 10 year old to a game before the end of the season.  He's never been to Comerica (he's been to Progressive Field, Great American Ballpark, and PNC Field).  I've never even taken him to a Tigers game, but the Tiger product is so bad recently...

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1 hour ago, gmoney said:

I was thinking about taking my 10 year old to a game before the end of the season.  He's never been to Comerica (he's been to Progressive Field, Great American Ballpark, and PNC Field).  I've never even taken him to a Tigers game, but the Tiger product is so bad recently...

Frankly, I don’t think your 10 year old son would care what kind of product the Tigers put on the field. Unless things have changed drastically since I was a kid, just being a kid at a baseball game at that age is still a lot of fun. 

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7 hours ago, sabretooth said:

Let's try a thought experiment:

From 2006 - 2016, the MI/DD duo produced playoff-competitive teams in 8 out of 11 years, and entertaining teams in 2008 and 2010 (with 2015 being the only real "stinker" year that I recall).  Let's say that Chris I and AA (or even DD coming back ha ha) could duplicate that again from 2021 - 2031, but the reboot team avoided the extravagant mistakes of MI.

Let's say that CI avoided some of his dad's extravagant loyalty spending to Miggy and JV and VMart, and he was just a little more cost-conscious (no huge precipitous extensions to Willis, or even to Guillen, though that was more understandable at the time) without undoing the basic drive to spend/win at a playoff competitive level.

Let's say that Chris is healthy and in win-mode for a very long time, has no intention of selling, and keeps the "foot on the gas" to keep the team winning/competitive....

Questions:

1. Would it be safe to assume that the team would have been generally profitable for him as long as he avoided his dad's eccentric loyalty spending and obvious overspends?  I don't see why it wouldn't have been profitable - if they leveraged team revenue over the last 10 years, it is likely that it was turning a profit even with some of the big spending on contracts.

2. Would it be safe to assume that since CI would keep the team that the above model would have been sustainable for him even beyond the initial 11 years?

My point is that Mike I and DD's model, if you want to call it that, was not really unsustainable -- it was sustainable for 11 years, which ain't chicken feed...AND...if they had avoided several obvious/key errors that were apparently personality-driven problems with Mike I's contract giveaway approach, AND if they managed the health, assisted their superstars more effectively, AND paid them properly (no loyalty spend on JV and Miggy, go for the contract with Max), and managed Miggy like Boston did Ortiz, and Houston did by tinkering with JV's approach, and Washington did with Max's contract, why wouldn't that model have been sustainable?

I can't say for sure, but couldn't a very long + successful run have continued, had better star player health and performance management been employed and more reasonable star player contracts had been offered?

With better player development, which isn’t much to ask given their putrid performance, and avoiding a few bad deals, VMart’s extension and probably Sanchez, maybe they can resign Max, not trade for Price, not sign zimm, Upton, plus the deals to guys like pelfret, Lowe, Aviles, no need to trade for Simon.... I don’t see why not. 

But... then is that a unique model?   Keep your HOFers and don’t extend aging veterans or sign FA for over 2 years. Is that what we are talking about?

 

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1 hour ago, Oblong said:

With better player development, which isn’t much to ask given their putrid performance, and avoiding a few bad deals, VMart’s extension and probably Sanchez, maybe they can resign Max, not trade for Price, not sign zimm, Upton, plus the deals to guys like pelfret, Lowe, Aviles, no need to trade for Simon.... I don’t see why not. 

But... then is that a unique model?   Keep your HOFers and don’t extend aging veterans or sign FA for over 2 years. Is that what we are talking about?

 

That seems close to the Cardinal way. They get the best cost-effective years out of players then let them walk when bloated salary years ensue. They also must have great scouts and player development. I doubt we'll see another longterm huge contract to a player north of 30

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9 hours ago, Oblong said:

With better player development, which isn’t much to ask given their putrid performance, and avoiding a few bad deals, VMart’s extension and probably Sanchez, maybe they can resign Max, not trade for Price, not sign zimm, Upton, plus the deals to guys like pelfret, Lowe, Aviles, no need to trade for Simon.... I don’t see why not. 

But... then is that a unique model?   Keep your HOFers and don’t extend aging veterans or sign FA for over 2 years. Is that what we are talking about?

 

Yeah, I guess so.  I think you're on target about the approach being fairly basic.

Edited by sabretooth

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5 hours ago, leflore said:

That seems close to the Cardinal way. They get the best cost-effective years out of players then let them walk when bloated salary years ensue. They also must have great scouts and player development. I doubt we'll see another longterm huge contract to a player north of 30

The Harper and Machado deals are going to be awful once those guys reach 30.  

Even the Trout extension is going to be bad considering his injury history.

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45 minutes ago, IdahoBert said:

I am confident that the tank worked. See you next year. 

It didn't work yet.  Baltimore can still catch us for the #1 overall pick next year.

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39 minutes ago, bobrob2004 said:

It didn't work yet.  Baltimore can still catch us for the #1 overall pick next year.

While true, Detroit would have to win at least 4 of their final 13 and Baltimore lose their final 12 for Det to pass them. Every game Balt wins, Det has to win 1 more than 4. I'd say Det's odds of getting #1 are 95+% at this point

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23 minutes ago, leflore said:

While true, Detroit would have to win at least 4 of their final 13 and Baltimore lose their final 12 for Det to pass them. Every game Balt wins, Det has to win 1 more than 4. I'd say Det's odds of getting #1 are 95+% at this point

We also have 6 games against Cleveland and Minnesota. 

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1 hour ago, leflore said:

While true, Detroit would have to win at least 4 of their final 13 and Baltimore lose their final 12 for Det to pass them. Every game Balt wins, Det has to win 1 more than 4. I'd say Det's odds of getting #1 are 95+% at this point

Since the beginning of August the Tigers have played at .317, since Sept 1, at .357. so 4 wins would be the projection based on their last dozen or so. Baltimore is playing worse than Det recently, with 2 6 game losing streaks since Aug 5. 

But Baltimore is finishing with Seattle and Toronto at home, then Toronto and Boston on the road, we have the Palehose home and away, Clev away and Min at home, so as Bert noted, we have the tougher schedule. Does seem unlikely we can catch them.

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On 9/15/2019 at 6:22 AM, gmoney said:

The Harper and Machado deals are going to be awful once those guys reach 30.  

Even the Trout extension is going to be bad considering his injury history.

He still does way more than enough to justify his contract despite the injuries.  Also, so far, I don't think any of his injuries are the type that will slow him down in the future.  

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The Tigers will have to go 8-4 the rest of the way in order to avoid being the 2nd worst team in franchise history, measured by winning percentage.  

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.760 OPS in the IL?....it's not like he's killing it down there.  Mikie Mahtook....now THERE's a guy who should be in the show

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can't believe the Orioles gave up a 4 run lead in the 9th. Getting worried about the first pick. Really want that for some consolation for this year.

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