Jump to content

IdahoBert

2019 REGULAR SEASON DISCUSSION THREAD

Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, Casimir said:

Ain't no way to optimize the Tiger lineup.  Offensive black holes at C, 2B, SS, and CF mostly every day.  The only way to optimize is to get guys batting out of turn.

Or you can look at exit velocity and launch angles, notice that Miggy isn't hitting for power anymore and move him to second in the order and put actual power hitters in the middle of the order.  Because Gardy is now into advanced stats, that's exactly what he did and there is absolutely no other reason to move Miggy from batting third.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, bobrob2004 said:

Or you can look at exit velocity and launch angles, notice that Miggy isn't hitting for power anymore and move him to second in the order and put actual power hitters in the middle of the order.  Because Gardy is now into advanced stats, that's exactly what he did and there is absolutely no other reason to move Miggy from batting third.  

except you can see Miggy isn't hitting for power any one of maybe a dozen different ways (like maybe his HR total?). No-one needed launch angle data to make that decision. Now it may be that having some numbers that have a modern ' scientific' patina helps make it easier for a manager to make players accept the decision, but any manager had the justification to make that decision anytime in the last 60 yrs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, bobrob2004 said:

Or you can look at exit velocity and launch angles, notice that Miggy isn't hitting for power anymore and move him to second in the order and put actual power hitters in the middle of the order.  Because Gardy is now into advanced stats, that's exactly what he did and there is absolutely no other reason to move Miggy from batting third.  

Advanced stats tell you to hit your best hitter second.  Then again, when your team is devoid of good hitters, I am not sure that it matters.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Gehringer_2 said:

except you can see Miggy isn't hitting for power any one of maybe a dozen different ways (like maybe his HR total?). No-one needed launch angle data to make that decision. Now it may be that having some numbers that have a modern ' scientific' patina helps make it easier for a manager to make players accept the decision, but any manager had the justification to make that decision anytime in the last 60 yrs.

But if Gardy is trying to convince me that he is now a proponent of advanced stats, that wouldn't have been a perfect opportunity to talk about it.  Instead he keeps saying, "shift, shift, shift" and now suddenly he is a believer.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, bobrob2004 said:

But if Gardy is trying to convince me that he is now a proponent of advanced stats, that wouldn't have been a perfect opportunity to talk about it.  Instead he keeps saying, "shift, shift, shift" and now suddenly he is a believer.  

He isn’t trying to convince you of anything.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, bobrob2004 said:

But if Gardy is trying to convince me that he is now a proponent of advanced stats, that wouldn't have been a perfect opportunity to talk about it.  Instead he keeps saying, "shift, shift, shift" and now suddenly he is a believer.  

I'm not following your drift about Gardy's rhetoric but I would say in general that I always expect a manager to have a public story to tell that may serve purposes separate from the '''baseball' reasons he does things and whether or not they match up in any given case is pretty much a matter of chance.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Shelton said:

He isn’t trying to convince you of anything.

Then what was the purpose of the article? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, bobrob2004 said:

Then what was the purpose of the article? 

Sell advertising

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, bobrob2004 said:

Then what was the purpose of the article? 

sales for the writer and his/her rag. You think players or managers go looking for reporters to spend their time with? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, bobrob2004 said:

Then what was the purpose of the article? 

Are you under the impression that Ron Gardenhire writes for baseball prospectus?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Gehringer_2 said:

sales for the writer and his/her rag. You think players or managers go looking for reporters to spend their time with? 

So it was bad journalizing.  A writer looked for a story that wasn't there.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, bobrob2004 said:

So it was bad journalizing.  A writer looked for a story that wasn't there.  

I don't know how you define 'there' vs 'not there'. To be more specific though, the question was whose agenda was being served. It's only reasonable to assume it's Gardenhire's agenda if he caused the story to be written. This is possible, a manager might call a reporter in and give an interview to get some particular thing out, though it would probably be the beat reporters. More generally the initiative for such a story likely came from the story's writer and so serves whatever agenda they had more than Gardenhire's - whose input may have been no more than answering questions put to him in possibly different contexts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
51 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

I don't know how you define 'there' vs 'not there'. To be more specific though, the question was whose agenda was being served. It's only reasonable to assume it's Gardenhire's agenda if he caused the story to be written. This is possible, a manager might call a reporter in and give an interview to get some particular thing out, though it would probably be the beat reporters. More generally the initiative for such a story likely came from the story's writer and so serves whatever agenda they had more than Gardenhire's - whose input may have been no more than answering questions put to him in possibly different contexts.

The problem is that we've seen this story before.  Old school manager is actually new school because he uses advanced stats.  The only evidence is the shift.  End of story.  There was nothing new here.  Bad journalizing.  

It's likely that the higher ups told Gardenhire that if anyone asks about advanced stats, just talk about the shift.  That's the only thing I've gotten out of this.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

except you can see Miggy isn't hitting for power any one of maybe a dozen different ways (like maybe his HR total?). No-one needed launch angle data to make that decision. Now it may be that having some numbers that have a modern ' scientific' patina helps make it easier for a manager to make players accept the decision, but any manager had the justification to make that decision anytime in the last 60 yrs.

For what it's worth, on the school-grading spreadsheet I've been developing lately, Miggy's Air (i.e., non-GB%) grade has gone up from F to D-. So, that's progress.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, bobrob2004 said:

The problem is that we've seen this story before.  Old school manager is actually new school because he uses advanced stats.  The only evidence is the shift.  End of story.  There was nothing new here.  Bad journalizing.  

It's likely that the higher ups told Gardenhire that if anyone asks about advanced stats, just talk about the shift.  That's the only thing I've gotten out of this.  

Did you read it?

I don’t think it’s bad “journalizing.” It’s just an article. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

FWIW, the article also says:

There’s an ease within that Detroit clubhouse when Gardenhire plays hunches, as he’s doing so drawing on thousands of games that came before some of his players even reached the major leagues.

I assume the implication is that the hunches are followed through on irrespective of what the data indicate. That may be good, bad or indifferent, depending on what the results are and, as importantly, how the players feel about it which, according to the article, is good. That's worth something, I guess.

In any event, I don't believe Gardy is ever going to embrace the totality of the analytics revolution. As a former shortstop, he respects the shifting part, especially since it's evident that all 29 other teams do it, so he's not out there on a limb all by himself on it. The article does mention pitching, but only the video part of it, not the analytics part—i.e., the part you can still rely solely on your eyes for. Nothing on the hitting part I could find. The word "hitting" appears only once, to identify Lloyd McClendon's role, and the word "batting" doesn't appear at all.

My bottom line interpretation of the article is that Gardy is giving in to the newfangled way on the things he understands and has company on. 

The article used the exact right word: Gardy is the conduit, as in passive receptor. Speaking only for myself, I will feel more confident about the Tigers embrace of the analytics revolution when they hire an active instigator, the kind of curious fellow who asks the right questions involving "what if".

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Shelton said:

Did you read it?

I don’t think it’s bad “journalizing.” It’s just an article. 

We've established this, I can't read it.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, bobrob2004 said:

Or you can look at exit velocity and launch angles, notice that Miggy isn't hitting for power anymore and move him to second in the order and put actual power hitters in the middle of the order.  Because Gardy is now into advanced stats, that's exactly what he did and there is absolutely no other reason to move Miggy from batting third.  

Exit velocity and launch angles probably ain't going to help the giant vortex of offensive suck up the middle of the diamond.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, bobrob2004 said:

We've established this, I can't read it.  

That's no reason to hold back on voicing an opinion on it's content.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, LooseGoose said:

That's no reason to hold back on voicing an opinion on it's content.

There's been enough information present to know the context of the article.  I also talked with someone else yesterday that did read the article and he proclaimed that it is the same advanced stats shifting talk that we've seen a dozen times before. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, bobrob2004 said:

The article was about people explaining this stuff to Gardy.  Are they actually doing it?  Or is he just not understanding it yet? 

When the people who understand it explain it to him, sometimes he nods.  And sometimes he nods off. 

Apparently he was awake when they told him that Josh Harrison's .220 On-Base makes him an ideal leadoff man.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, Casimir said:

Exit velocity and launch angles probably ain't going to help the giant vortex of offensive suck up the middle of the diamond.

Fun fact: Tigers are already ninth in hard hit %, seventh in line drive %, and 11th in fly ball %, according to Fangraphs. So you're absolutely right: exit velocity and launch angles ain't helping them in the least. Probably because when weak batters hit the ball hard and in the air, they turn into outs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, chasfh said:

Fun fact: Tigers are already ninth in hard hit %, seventh in line drive %, and 11th in fly ball %, according to Fangraphs. So you're absolutely right: exit velocity and launch angles ain't helping them in the least. Probably because when weak batters hit the ball hard and in the air, they turn into outs.

There's no reinventing Harrison / Mercer / Beckham / Rodriguez as hitters.  There's no reason to believe Jones suddenly hits.  There's no reason to believe the catching platoon suddenly hits.  That's essentially half of the lineup.  That's a pretty sizable impediment to overcome when Candelario and Stewart are still unproven and Cabrera is not Cabrera.

Other than that, the offense looks good.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Fun fact: Tigers are already ninth in hard hit %, seventh in line drive %, and 11th in fly ball %, according to Fangraphs. So you're absolutely right: exit velocity and launch angles ain't helping them in the least. Probably because when weak batters hit the ball hard and in the air, they turn into outs.

SSS

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Red Sox DFA Swihart. Given our catching tandem, the Tigers should at least give them a call to see if they can get him.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
×
  • Create New...