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2019 Preseason Predictions

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Bobrob’s 2019 Preseason Prediction #9 – Joshua Isaiah Harrison

Josh Harrison had his worst season since his first couple of seasons last year, although that may be due to the plague of injuries he endured.  His batting average was .250, the lowest since 2013; his OBP was .293, the lowest since 2013; and his SLG was .363, the lowest since 2012. 

Even in his best seasons, Harrison is really nothing to get excited about.  2014 was his best season, looks like a fluke with a 137 wRC+.  That year he had an unsustainable .353 BABIP.  He was only able to repeat the power once (13 HR, .175 ISO), in 2017 (16 HR, .160 ISO). 

Josh Harrison is supposed to be the Tigers’ leadoff hitter this year, but his highest stolen bases total was 19 and 18 (but it’s not like any one else on the Tigers’ roster can steal).  His walk rate is constantly in the 4-5% range.  Odd stat of the day: Harrison had 23 HBP in 2017, but no more than 7 in any other year.  His highest walk total was 28, also in 2017.  Every other year, his walk total was below the 23 HBP he had in 2017.

Josh Harrison had 3 obstacles to overcome in 2019.  First are his injuries.  How healthy is he really?  Second, switching from the National League to the American League.  There is usually some adjustment period.  Lastly, at 31 years old, Harrison is exiting his “prime” years (“prime” being relative).  While his bad 2018 can be attributed to him not being fully healthy, there is some logic that he is just wearing down due to age.

Experts’ Predictions/Projections:

Steamer – 388 AB | .264/.315/.402 | 9 HR | 43 RBI | 6 SB | 22 BB | 74 K

ZiPS – 424 AB | .257/.304/.377 | 9 HR | 44 RBI | 7 SB | 21 BB | 81 K

THE BAT – 501 AB | .265/.316/.415 | 13 HR | 58 RBI | 9 SB | 30 BB | 95 K

RotoChamp – 429 AB | .266/.313/.396 | 10 HR | 46 RBI | 9 SB | 22 BB | 80 K

CBS Sports – 499 AB | .263/.316/.419 | 16 HR | 53 RBI | 8 SB | 27 BB | 115 K

ESPN – 488 AB | .268/.313/.406 | 13 HR | 56 RBI | 10 SB | 23 BB | 88 K

FanGraphs’ Fans – N/A

My Prediction:

2018 Prediction – N/A

2018 Actual – 344 AB | .250/.293/.363 | 8 HR | 37 RBI | 3 SB | 18 BB | 68 K

 

2019 Prediction – 485 AB | .260/.296/.361 | 8 HR | 40 RBI | 11 SB | 22 BB | 104 K

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Bobrob’s 2019 Preseason Prediction #10 - Jordy Joe Mercer

In a lot of ways Jordy Mercer has the same struggles as Josh Harrison, coming over from the National League (both from the Pirates), likely past his prime being over the age of 30, and coming off an injury-shortened year.  After appearing in at least 145 games in 2016-17, Mercer only appeared in 117 games in 2018.  Also like Harrison, Mercer has been very consistent.  In 4 of the last 5 seasons, Mercer has had between an 88-94 OPS+ (the other being a 69 OPS+).  So at least we know what to expect from him. 

In 2017, Mercer hit a career high 14 home runs, a career high 9.1% walk rate, his highest ISO (.151) and SLG (.406) since 2013, and yet still pulled in a below average 93 OPS+.  In 2018, he settled back into career norms:

2018 - .251/.315/.381/.696

Career - .256/.316/.383/.699

In 2018, Mercer had a career high 20% strikeout rate.  I’d except that number to go up in the American League while facing unknown pitchers.  Also in 2018, his line drive rate was a career high at 27.4%.  I’d say that’s an anomaly and will go back to around 20% that he normally hits.  Another oddity was his ground ball rate at 38.4% - a career low.  Again, I would expect that to go back to around his career average of 48%.  Even if he continues to hit more fly balls, I wouldn’t expect them to turn into home runs, not at Comerica Park.  Speaking of home runs, despite a career high 34.2% fly ball rate in 2018, his HR/FB rate was at 5.7%, down from the two previous years of 10.9% and 7.9%.

I wouldn’t expect much at all from Mercer on the field.  Just like Harrison, he is here to fill the gap until someone in the minors is ready (everyone seems to love Willi Castro).  Just like Harrison, Mercer’s main asset will be mentoring the young hitters, not his hitting ability.

Experts’ Predictions/Projections:

Steamer – 306 AB | .252/.320/.390 | 7 HR | 35 RBI | 2 SB | 28 BB | 60 K

ZiPS – 432 AB | .243/.307/.356 | 8 HR | 45 RBI | 2 SB | 37 BB | 87 K

THE BAT – 433 AB | .253/.315/.389 | 10 HR | 50 RBI | 2 SB | 37 BB | 86 K

RotoChamp – 430 AB | .253/.320/.388 | 9 HR | 47 RBI | 1 SB | 39 BB | 83 K

CBS Sports – 487 AB | .253/.319/.402 |11 HR | 51 RBI | 2 SB | 44 BB | 117 K

ESPN – 429 AB | .259/.321/.403 | 10 HR | 49 RBI | 1 SB | 36 BB | 81 K

FanGraphs’ Fans – N/A

My Prediction:

2018 Prediction – N/A

2018 Actual – 394 AB | .251/.315/.381 | 6 HR | 39 RBI | 2 SB | 32 BB | 87 K

 

2019 Prediction – 505 AB | .230/.285/.331 | 6 HR | 44 RBI | 2 SB | 35 BB | 121 K

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I was not exactly certain where to put this, but watching some of the Tiger ST games this year has me thinking they are going to be better than I anticipated. I thought that 65 wins was about correct going into spring training. My current thinking is that this looks more like a 73 win team. The bullpen will probably be better than I thought, and the defense looks improved. The offense is too big of a question mark to antcipate much more than 73 wins.

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So, you’re saying they are going to be better than you think?

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On 3/15/2019 at 12:45 PM, bobrob2004 said:

Bobrob’s 2019 Preseason Prediction #9 – Joshua Isaiah Harrison

Josh Harrison had his worst season since his first couple of seasons last year, although that may be due to the plague of injuries he endured.  His batting average was .250, the lowest since 2013; his OBP was .293, the lowest since 2013; and his SLG was .363, the lowest since 2012. 

Even in his best seasons, Harrison is really nothing to get excited about.  2014 was his best season, looks like a fluke with a 137 wRC+.  That year he had an unsustainable .353 BABIP.  He was only able to repeat the power once (13 HR, .175 ISO), in 2017 (16 HR, .160 ISO). 

Josh Harrison is supposed to be the Tigers’ leadoff hitter this year, but his highest stolen bases total was 19 and 18 (but it’s not like any one else on the Tigers’ roster can steal).  His walk rate is constantly in the 4-5% range.  Odd stat of the day: Harrison had 23 HBP in 2017, but no more than 7 in any other year.  His highest walk total was 28, also in 2017.  Every other year, his walk total was below the 23 HBP he had in 2017.

Josh Harrison had 3 obstacles to overcome in 2019.  First are his injuries.  How healthy is he really?  Second, switching from the National League to the American League.  There is usually some adjustment period.  Lastly, at 31 years old, Harrison is exiting his “prime” years (“prime” being relative).  While his bad 2018 can be attributed to him not being fully healthy, there is some logic that he is just wearing down due to age.

Experts’ Predictions/Projections:

Steamer – 388 AB | .264/.315/.402 | 9 HR | 43 RBI | 6 SB | 22 BB | 74 K

ZiPS – 424 AB | .257/.304/.377 | 9 HR | 44 RBI | 7 SB | 21 BB | 81 K

THE BAT – 501 AB | .265/.316/.415 | 13 HR | 58 RBI | 9 SB | 30 BB | 95 K

RotoChamp – 429 AB | .266/.313/.396 | 10 HR | 46 RBI | 9 SB | 22 BB | 80 K

CBS Sports – 499 AB | .263/.316/.419 | 16 HR | 53 RBI | 8 SB | 27 BB | 115 K

ESPN – 488 AB | .268/.313/.406 | 13 HR | 56 RBI | 10 SB | 23 BB | 88 K

FanGraphs’ Fans – N/A

My Prediction:

2018 Prediction – N/A

2018 Actual – 344 AB | .250/.293/.363 | 8 HR | 37 RBI | 3 SB | 18 BB | 68 K

 

2019 Prediction – 485 AB | .260/.296/.361 | 8 HR | 40 RBI | 11 SB | 22 BB | 104 K

I read a piece a while back in which the writer examined the tendency of many old-school (a euphemism for senile or clueless) managers to decide certain spots in the batting order -- especially leadoff -- by the player's defensive position, regardless of whether the guy's offensive characteristics fit the spot in the order.  If I remember correctly, those managers had a strong tendency to bat their second-basemen leadoff, with center fielders being the next most likely position players to bat first.

If Illadvisedhire uses Harrison to lead off, despite the fact that he doesn't get on base much and is no dynamo on the basepaths on the rare occasions when he does get there, that would seem to put our manager very much in the "old-school" category.

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5 hours ago, Shelton said:

So, you’re saying they are going to be better than you think?

I'm not there yet.  Definitely fun to watch though.

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21 hours ago, bobrob2004 said:

Bobrob’s 2019 Preseason Prediction #10 - Jordy Joe Mercer

In a lot of ways Jordy Mercer has the same struggles as Josh Harrison, coming over from the National League (both from the Pirates), likely past his prime being over the age of 30, and coming off an injury-shortened year.  After appearing in at least 145 games in 2016-17, Mercer only appeared in 117 games in 2018.  Also like Harrison, Mercer has been very consistent.  In 4 of the last 5 seasons, Mercer has had between an 88-94 OPS+ (the other being a 69 OPS+).  So at least we know what to expect from him. 

In 2017, Mercer hit a career high 14 home runs, a career high 9.1% walk rate, his highest ISO (.151) and SLG (.406) since 2013, and yet still pulled in a below average 93 OPS+.  In 2018, he settled back into career norms:

2018 - .251/.315/.381/.696

Career - .256/.316/.383/.699

In 2018, Mercer had a career high 20% strikeout rate.  I’d except that number to go up in the American League while facing unknown pitchers.  Also in 2018, his line drive rate was a career high at 27.4%.  I’d say that’s an anomaly and will go back to around 20% that he normally hits.  Another oddity was his ground ball rate at 38.4% - a career low.  Again, I would expect that to go back to around his career average of 48%.  Even if he continues to hit more fly balls, I wouldn’t expect them to turn into home runs, not at Comerica Park.  Speaking of home runs, despite a career high 34.2% fly ball rate in 2018, his HR/FB rate was at 5.7%, down from the two previous years of 10.9% and 7.9%.

I wouldn’t expect much at all from Mercer on the field.  Just like Harrison, he is here to fill the gap until someone in the minors is ready (everyone seems to love Willi Castro).  Just like Harrison, Mercer’s main asset will be mentoring the young hitters, not his hitting ability.

Experts’ Predictions/Projections:

Steamer – 306 AB | .252/.320/.390 | 7 HR | 35 RBI | 2 SB | 28 BB | 60 K

ZiPS – 432 AB | .243/.307/.356 | 8 HR | 45 RBI | 2 SB | 37 BB | 87 K

THE BAT – 433 AB | .253/.315/.389 | 10 HR | 50 RBI | 2 SB | 37 BB | 86 K

RotoChamp – 430 AB | .253/.320/.388 | 9 HR | 47 RBI | 1 SB | 39 BB | 83 K

CBS Sports – 487 AB | .253/.319/.402 |11 HR | 51 RBI | 2 SB | 44 BB | 117 K

ESPN – 429 AB | .259/.321/.403 | 10 HR | 49 RBI | 1 SB | 36 BB | 81 K

FanGraphs’ Fans – N/A

My Prediction:

2018 Prediction – N/A

2018 Actual – 394 AB | .251/.315/.381 | 6 HR | 39 RBI | 2 SB | 32 BB | 87 K

 

2019 Prediction – 505 AB | .230/.285/.331 | 6 HR | 44 RBI | 2 SB | 35 BB | 121 K

Three experts have him hitting .253. A fourth is .252. That is mighty consistent.

Thanks for posting these.

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Based on today's reports, I'm going to say that Michael Fulmer will not be bouncing back this year.

 

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New prediction for Micheal Fulmer: 0 IP | 0-0 W/L | 0.00 ERA | 0.000 WHIP | 0 K | 0 BB

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Bobrob’s 2019 Preseason Prediction #11 - Jordan M. Zimmermann

What do you think that M. stands for?  Michael?  Matthew?  Mabel?  Did you ever notice that there are two ns at the end of his last name?  Do you think his close friends call him “Dan” for short?  How about “Danny?”

Danny Mabel has been awful since putting on a Tigers uniform.  In over 396 innings, he has a 5.24 ERA, 4.88 FIP, 10.5 H/9, 2.2 BB/9, and 6.4 K/9.  Since 2016, Zimmermann has the 4th highest ERA, 10th highest FIP, and 11th lowest K/9 among starting pitchers.  Not great, Bob.

To be fair, Zimmermann’s 2018 season is the best one with the Tigers.  He had his lowest ERA (4.52), highest strikeout rate (7.6 K/9) and the highest home run rate (1.9 HR/9).  Ok, the last one is not so good.  His season was mostly fueled by a good first half.

1st Half – 63 IP | 3.71 ERA | 1.127 WHIP | 8.7 K/9

2nd Half – 68 1/3 IP | 5.27 ERA | 1.390 WHIP | 6.6 K/9

Ah, those second half numbers is the Zimmermann we all grew to hate.  Since joining the Tigers, Zimmermann has been dealing with neck injuries and the inability to make adjustments.  What was different between these two splits?  Well, Zimmermann had a sinker in the month of April, but then mostly abandoned it the rest of the year.  Now, pitches are tracked not by grip, but by movement and velocity, so it’s possible that this “sinker” was really a 4-seamer with better movement (Verlander Is adamant that he doesn’t throw a cutter despite what the tracking says).  Also, it doesn’t seem like the sinker played a major role in his performance anyway. 

So, what did change?  Honestly, not much according to the deeper stats.  His curveball was much more effective (.139 BAA in the first half and .364 BAA in the second half) and his pitches resulted in more fly balls (47.3% in the first half, 39.6% in the second half).  Other than that, it looks like one was just a major fluke (or competitive advantage.  The Tigers did have an easier schedule the first half of the year).  Given his recent history, I’d say the first half was more of a fluke than the second half.

Experts’ Predictions/Projections:

Steamer – 155 IP | 8-11 W/L | 5.08 ERA | 1.37 WHIP | 112 K | 38 BB

ZiPS – 126 2/3 IP | 7-8 W/L | 4.83 ERA | 1.35 WHIP | 92 K | 29 BB

THE BAT – 157 IP | 8-11 W/L | 4.47 ERA | 1.27 WHIP | 127 K | 38 BB

RotoChamp – 140 IP | 5-10 W/L | 4.89 ERA | 1.39 WHIP | 105 K | 32 BB

CBS Sports – 160 2/3 IP | 9-11 W/L | 4.82 ERA | 1.36 WHIP | 134 K | 39 BB

ESPN – 140 IP | 6 W | 5.34 ERA | 1.38 WHIP | 104 K | 32 BB

FanGraphs’ Fans – N/A

My Prediction:

2018 Prediction – 163 IP | 6-14 W/L | 5.69 ERA | 1.503 WHIP | 105 K | 43 BB

2018 Actual – 131 1/3 IP | 7-8 W/L | 4.52 ERA | 1.264 WHIP | 111 K | 26 BB

 

2019 Prediction – 157 1/3 IP | 6-13 W/L | 5.49 ERA | 1.468 WHIP | 112 K | 38 BB

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On 3/19/2019 at 7:09 AM, Shelton said:

So, you’re saying they are going to be better than you think?

I thought 63 to 65 wins was about right. I think 73 wins is about correct now. I am expecting much better defense, slightly better hitting, and the bullpen will be a little better. Starting pitching will be at least as good as last year.

 

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On 3/19/2019 at 10:18 AM, bobrob2004 said:

New prediction for Micheal Fulmer: 0 IP | 0-0 W/L | 0.00 ERA | 0.000 WHIP | 0 K | 0 BB

We want the Funk. Got to have that Funk!

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Bobrob’s 2019 Preseason Prediction #12 – Grayson James Greiner                  

Funny story, when Greiner was first promoted to the big leagues I thought his name was pronounced “Greener.”  Hasn’t Grayson ever learned “i before e except after c” rule?  If you want me to pronounce it “Griener” then spell it “Griener.”  Also interesting is that no one that has ever played in the big leagues has been named “Grayson” before.  In fact, I can’t think of anyone anywhere with the name “Grayson.”

Greiner has one stat that I really like, his walk rate of 14.7% in 116 Major League PA.  This is likely not a fluke as he has always shown the ability to draw a walk.  In 371 PA in AA in 2017, Greiner had a 10.2% walk rate; in 180 PA in AAA last year, he had an 11.7% walk rate.

 And the praise ends here.  He has shown very little power, 0 HR and a .063 ISO (7 National League pitchers had a better ISO than that, min. 50 PA). He did hit 14 home runs in AA in 2017, but I have a hard time believing he’ll reach double digits in the Majors.

Another concerning stat is his strikeout rate.  In AA in 2017, he had a 17.6% strikeout rate.  Then in AAA last year it was at 23.3% and it rose again in the majors to 27.6%.  This is not a good trend.

Of course you can claim a small sample size in the Majors with only 116 PA.  Fair enough.  He did have a 23.9% line drive rate, which is pretty good.  And it was consistently in the 23-25% range in AA and AAA.  This can be a positive sign going forward.  But I wouldn’t expect a Joe Mauer here.

When will Jake Rogers be ready?

Experts’ Predictions/Projections:

Steamer – 309 AB | .236/.307/.367 | 8 HR | 34 RBI | 1 SB | 30 BB | 83 K

ZiPS – 296 AB | .206/.274/.328 | 7 HR | 31 RBI | 0 SB | 28 BB | 92 K

THE BAT – 420 AB | .219/.293/.342 | 10 HR | 42 RBI | 2 SB | 41 BB | 125 K

RotoChamp – 331 AB | .233/.323/.335 | 5 HR | 42 RBI | 0 SB | 46 BB | 104 K

CBS Sports – 368 AB | .226/.301/.332 | 5 HR | 46 RBI | 1 SB | 40 BB | 108 K

ESPN – 362 AB | .227/.301/.354 | 8 HR | 42 RBI | 0 SB | 39 BB | 100 K

FanGraphs’ Fans – N/A

My Prediction:

2018 Prediction – N/A

2018 Actual – 96 AB | .251/.297/.353 | 0 HR | 12 RBI | 0 SB | 17 BB | 32 K

 

2019 Prediction – 401 AB | .217/.296/.314 | 6 HR | 33 RBI | 0 SB | 43 BB | 131 K

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1 hour ago, bobrob2004 said:

Bobrob’s 2019 Preseason Prediction #12 – Grayson James Greiner                  

2019 Prediction – 401 AB | .217/.296/.314 | 6 HR | 33 RBI | 0 SB | 43 BB | 131 K

This is one I'll counter, I think he'll hit and get on base better.

I'll go with a BA .255 and based on your 400ABs - 65 walks.

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52 minutes ago, LooseGoose said:

This is one I'll counter, I think he'll hit and get on base better.

I'll go with a BA .255 and based on your 400ABs - 65 walks.

You realize that's a .359 OBP, right?

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1 hour ago, Chili Mac Davis said:

You realize that's a .359 OBP, right?

I will consider it a 'plus' if he has a .359 SLG!

btw: Grayson is one of the more popular names over the past couple years. In the top 10 up to top 5 of all boy names.

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5 hours ago, bobrob2004 said:

Hasn’t Grayson ever learned “i before e except after c” rule?  If you want me to pronounce it “Griener” then spell it “Griener.” 

Heigh-ho, feisty bobrob the baseball Einstein, ..neither height, nor seismic shift, nor even sleight of hand could ever prevent me from looking through a kaleidoscope ..that is, if I had a kaleidoscope. 

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4 minutes ago, Tigrrfan said:

Heigh-ho, feisty bobrob the baseball Einstein, ..neither height, nor seismic shift, nor even sleight of hand could ever prevent me from looking through a kaleidoscope ..that is, if I had a kaleidoscope. 

Touche.

The last two predictions were my attempt at humor.  I laugh to get through the pain.  

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1 minute ago, bobrob2004 said:

The last two predictions were my attempt at humor.  I laugh to get through the pain.  

Humor is good.  Pain, not so much.

Not a doubt in my mind that a 'rebuild' need not have been this painful.  Am thinking the pain will continue at least through Miggy's contract.  Then, the way things are going ..who knows if current society as we know it will even exist.

Also not a doubt in my mind that Chris Ilitch did not have to completely go into a 'tank' as dismal as this has been (and will be.)  

Your projections were always a positive diversion, and still are.  And undoubtedly they promote statistical research (as evidenced by the .359 OBP contribution) as well as my own number crunching to see if OBP projects realistically.

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3 hours ago, Chili Mac Davis said:

You realize that's a .359 OBP, right?

We'd all be happy, eh?    I see good things for this young lad.

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Bobrob’s 2019 Preseason Prediction #13 – JaCoby Mylon Jones

A good argument can be made that JaCoby is one of the best centerfielders in the game, and I’m not talking about Ellsbury.  Jones had a 10 DRS while playing CF, which doesn’t seem like much until you consider that it was only in 558 innings (He spent another 452 innings in LF).  Among all outfielders, Jones had a 21 DRS, topping everyone.  He had a 12.3 UZR with only Mookie Bettes ahead of him at 16.8.  If he plays all of his innings in CF in 2019, he will be a candidate for a Gold Glove, which now is given out by separate outfield positions (LF, CF, RF) instead of the generic OF position. 

Oh, his hitting?  He sucks at hitting.  He will hit around .200 with 15-20 stolen bases and even less home runs.  He’ll strike out about 30% of the time and walk only about 5% of the time.  There is absolutely nothing in his numbers to feel optimistic about.  He finished 2018 with a 70 wRC+, with only 6 hitters worse than him with a minimum of 450 PA.  He is one of the weakest hitters in the game and will continue to be in 2019.

When will Daz Cameron be ready?  

Edit: And now Jones will start the year on the IL.  He’s still likely to get the majority of the playing time in CF, so this doesn’t change much.

Experts’ Predictions/Projections:

Steamer – 362 AB | .225/.284/.371 | 10 HR | 40 RBI | 11 SB | 26 BB | 121 K

ZiPS – 451 AB | .206/.265/.348 | 12 HR | 43 RBI | 14 SB | 30 BB | 165 K

THE BAT – 496 AB | .220/.282/.362 | 13 HR | 49 RBI | 13 SB | 36 BB | 172 K

RotoChamp – 461 AB | .228/.283/.382 | 11 HR | 37 RBI | 14 SB | 25 BB | 161 K

CBS Sports – 428 AB | .234/.304/.409 | 14 HR | 43 RBI | 13 SB | 33 BB | 138 K

ESPN – 365 AB | .208/.269/.356 | 9 HR | 34 RBI | 11 SB | 23 BB | 125 K

FanGraphs’ Fans – N/A

My Prediction:

2018 Prediction – N/A

2018 Actual – 429 AB | .207/.266/.364 | 11 HR | 34 RBI | 13 SB | 24 BB | 142 K

 

2019 Prediction – 374 AB | .206/.262/.353 | 10 HR | 30 RBI | 15 SB | 21 BB | 130 K

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Bobrob’s 2019 Preseason Prediction #14 – Matthew Cody Moore

Matt Moore was one of the worst pitchers in baseball last year.  He led everyone that pitched at least 100 innings with a 6.79 ERA.  His 5.25 FIP was the 9th highest and 0.2 fWAR was the 7th lowest.  In fact, Moore hasn’t had a decent season since 2013.  So naturally he was one of the first acquisitions from Al Avila last off-season.  It’s a miracle that Moore was able to get a Major League deal considering that someone like Gio Gonzalez (4.21 ERA, 4.16 FIP, 2.1 fWAR) had to settle for a minor league deal with no chance of making the ML team.

Not only is Moore going to pitch in the Tigers rotation, but due to Fulmer’s season ending injury, Moore is now the 4th starter on the team.  This just shows the sad state that the Tigers are in right now.  Being that Moore is entering his age 30 season, it is reasonable to assume that he is past his prime, therefore it is doubtful that he will bounce back in any respectful way.  Of course there are some examples.  Anibal Sanchez bounced back pretty nicely in Atlanta.  But the Tigers have Rick Anderson as pitching coach and I virtually have no confidence in him turning around a pitching mess.

Back to Moore, since the 2015 season, Moore has the highest ERA of anyone in baseball with a minimum of 500 innings at 5.22, the 8th highest FIP (4.64) and the 5th lowest fWAR (3.5).  Baseball-Reference has him at 0.4 WAR since the 2015.  This is literally 0 wins above replacement, which means any AAA replacement player would perform just as good as Moore was over the last 4 seasons.  (Do you ever get the impression that they just don't know what to do with Daniel Norris?).

Given the lack of depth of starting pitchers on the Tigers roster, Moore will likely get at least 30 starts (barring injury).  Considering he only pitched a little more than 100 innings last year, it might be assumed that he missed some time due to injury.  Nope.  The Rangers were smart and moved Moore to the bullpen after his June 10th start.  He had an 8.02 ERA as a starter (55 innings in 12 starts, averaging ~4.5 innings/start) and a 5.36 ERA as a reliever (47 innings).    

In case you can’t tell, I absolutely hate this signing and I can’t see anything positive about having Matt Moore on the team.  Unless the Tigers are actively trying to lose this year, which seems plausible.   

Experts’ Predictions/Projections:

Steamer – 134 IP | 7-10 W/L | 5.30 ERA | 1.47 WHIP | 101 K | 50 BB

ZiPS – 126 1/3 IP | 7-8 W/L | 5.06 ERA | 1.47 WHIP | 99 K | 47 BB

THE BAT – 138 IP | 7-10 W/L | 4.55 ERA | 1.34 WHIP | 114 K | 47 BB

RotoChamp – 111 IP | 5-8 W/L | 4.78 ERA | 1.50 WHIP | 95 K | 43 BB

CBS Sports – 136 IP | 5-11 W/L | 5.29 ERA | 1.63 WHIP | 121 K | 49 BB

ESPN – 110 IP | 5 W | 5.48 ERA | 1.45 WHIP | 95 K | 40 BB

FanGraphs’ Fans – N/A

My Prediction:

2018 Prediction – N/A

2018 Actual – 102 IP | 3-8 W/L | 6.79 ERA | 1.657 WHIP | 86 K | 41 BB

 

2019 Prediction – 139 IP | 2-20 W/L | 6.02 ERA | 1.561 WHIP | 110 K | 54 BB

 

This concludes by predictions for this year.  I will not be doing one for Turnbull as I don't believe he'll stick in the rotation all year. 

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7 minutes ago, bobrob2004 said:

Bobrob’s 2019 Preseason Prediction #14 – Matthew Cody Moore

2019 Prediction – 139 IP | 2-20 W/L | 6.02 ERA | 1.561 WHIP | 110 K | 54 BB

This concludes by predictions for this year.  I will not be doing one for Turnbull as I don't believe he'll stick in the rotation all year. 

2-20?   They won't let him lose 20.   Shoulda went with 2-19.  😉

Now Turnbull will win the Cy Young, thanks!

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