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bobrob2004

2019 Preseason Predictions

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58 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

Josh Harrison.

This doesn't change my RBI prediction for Candelario.  

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5 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

Josh Harrison.

The guy that never walks!  It does look that way though based on spring training line-ups.  It doesn't really matter since they don't have a good lead-off hitter.

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9 hours ago, thefunk said:

Are you high? Dollars to donuts Candelario NEVER hits leadoff. 

But he already has.

image.png.ac2f0f17cc596b3b2d5585b9d100be02.png

Small sample size, but he had some success leading off the game and then must have been terrible after that first plate appearance.

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5 hours ago, tiger337 said:

The guy that never walks!  It does look that way though based on spring training line-ups.  It doesn't really matter since they don't have a good lead-off hitter.

don't kill the messenger.  I thought I read that Gardy plans to hit him there.

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In the few “opening day” style lineups we have seen so far this spring, Jeimer has batted fifth, I think. 

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9 hours ago, bobrob2004 said:

This doesn't change my RBI prediction for Candelario.  

If candelario is batting behind castellanos and Cabrera, that would seem to present a lot more RBI opportunities than batting behind greiner and JaCoby. 

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But he also needs to have an RBI mentality.  There are some guys that always hit with runners in scoring position.  Others hit solo home runs in blow outs.  

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10 hours ago, Casimir said:

But he already has.

image.png.ac2f0f17cc596b3b2d5585b9d100be02.png

Small sample size, but he had some success leading off the game and then must have been terrible after that first plate appearance.

Based upon that data .. appears Jamie would be more valuable batting 2nd than leadoff.

Definitely do not bat him cleanup.

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7 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

don't kill the messenger.  I thought I read that Gardy plans to hit him there.

I just assumed he was going to lead off because that's what he has been doing in spring training so far.  

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15 hours ago, Tigrrfan said:

Based upon that data .. appears Jamie would be more valuable batting 2nd than leadoff.

Definitely do not bat him cleanup.

The ISO difference between leadoff and two is crazy.  I don't know if there is anything to take away from that.

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Bobrob’s 2019 Preseason Prediction #5 - Michael Joseph Fulmer

It seems like forever ago that Michael Fulmer won the Rookie of the Year Award and was going to be the foundation of the rotation in a Tigers’ rebuild.  However, we have seen Fulmer’s ERA go from 3.06 to 3.83 to a very disappointing 4.69 last year.  This is the exact opposite of what was supposed to happen for a guy that is still 26 years of age. 

There were two glaring problems with Fulmer in 2018.  His walk rate spiked to 8.2% in 2018 after being a respectful 5.9% in 2017.  The other major problem was the home run rate.  Fulmer was 2nd only to Stephen Strasburg with 0.71 HR/9 in 2017.  That number jumped to 1.29 in 2018.  With these two extremes, his xFIP was almost identical the last two years (4.24 and 4.29), which normalizes home run rates.  This just shows how lucky he was in 2017 and how unlucky he was in 2018.

Another thing that jumps out is the value of his changeup.  During his rookie season, his changeup was one of his best pitches; .167 BAA, 0 HR allowed, 29 strikeouts.  During 2018, his changeup was one of his worst pitches; .307 BAA, 5 HR allowed, only 6 strikeouts.  It’s not like the usage changed all that much over his 3 years, so it’s a weird glitch in his stats.

The key to Fulmer’s success in 2019 has to be his changeup.  If it’s like it was in his rookie year, he will have a good year. If it’s like it was last season, he will continue to have a high walk and home run rate.  Another thing to consider is that he is also coming off of off-season knee surgery.  How much that will affect his season, especially early on, is yet to be determined.

 

Experts’ Predictions/Projections:

Steamer – 175 IP | 10-11 W/L | 4.38 ERA | 1.34 WHIP | 147 K | 54 BB

ZiPS – 142 2/3 IP | 9-8 W/L | 4.04 ERA | 1.27 WHIP | 113 K | 41 BB

THE BAT – 172 IP | 10-10 W/L | 3.59 ERA | 1.18 WHIP | 157 K | 47 BB

RotoChamp – 180 IP | 10-10 W/L | 4.05 ERA | 1.22 WHIP | 142 K | 54 BB

CBS Sports – 143 IP | 8-11 W/L | 4.41 ERA | 1.36 WHIP | 126 K | 48 BB

ESPN – 177 IP | 10 W | 4.17 ERA | 1.24 WHIP | 143 K | 54 BB

FanGraphs’ Fans – N/A

My Prediction:

2018 Prediction – 185 IP | 12-10 W/L | 3.36 ERA | 1.076 WHIP | 144 K | 41 BB

2018 Actual – 132 1/3 IP | 3-12 W/L | 4.69 ERA | 1.315 WHIP | 110 K | 46 BB

 

2019 Prediction – 176 1/3 IP | 11-9 W/L | 3.88 ERA | 1.174 WHIP | 149 K | 55 BB

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4 hours ago, Casimir said:

The ISO difference between leadoff and two is crazy.  I don't know if there is anything to take away from that.

There isn’t. 

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7 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

Fun with small sample sizes.  

There is nothing fun about small sample sizes. 

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Bobrob’s 2019 Preseason Prediction #6 – Christin Gaylin Harris Stewart

Christin Stewart had his first taste of the Major Leagues in 2018 with 72 PA, 2 HR, and a batting line of .267/.375/.417.  The most impressive stat for Stewart is his high walk rate.  In 442 PA in High-A in 2016, Stewart’s walk rate was 16.7%; in 2017 in 555 PA in AA, Stewart had a walk rate of 10.1%; and in 2018 in 522 PA in AAA, Stewart’s walk rate was 12.8%.  In his limited time in the Majors, he was able to keep that high walk rate, 13.9%.  This is a very encouraging sign going forward.

In the power department, Stewart was able to hit 25+ home runs in each of the last 3 years, spanning multiple levels in the minor leagues.  His ISO was regularly above .200 (although only .150 in the Majors).  Again, a very encouraging sign going forward.  As the 26 year old reaches his prime years, it’s reasonable to assume around 25 home runs from him regularly. 

For the 2019 season, I expect Stewart to go through some struggles, similar to what we saw from Candelario last year and Castellanos early in his career.  I don’t really think Stewart will become an all-star player like Castellanos will eventually become, but he certainly has the tools to stick around for awhile (hopefully longer than Brennan Boesch). 

One thing to keep an eye on is Stewart’s batted ball data.  His fly ball rate was regularly over 50% until 2018 when it went down to around 40% and his ground ball rate increased from around 30% to around 38%.  If this trend continues, it could limit the amount of home runs he could potentially hit.  Although this may be a conscious decision as a trade off in power to increase batting average.

 

Experts’ Predictions/Projections:

Steamer – 438 AB | .246/.328/.449 | 22 HR | 66 RBI | 1 SB | 51 BB | 114 K

ZiPS – 500 AB | .232/.314/.428 | 23 HR | 76 RBI | 1 SB | 55 BB | 151 K

THE BAT – 358 AB | .232/.324/.427 | 16 HR | 49 RBI | 2 SB | 44 BB | 107 K

RotoChamp – 356 AB | .244/.340/.435 | 16 HR | 55 RBI | 0 SB | 49 BB | 95 K

CBS Sports – 371 AB | .259/.333/.439 | 14 HR | 51 RBI | 5 SB | 40 BB | 96 K

ESPN – 473 AB | .220/.308/.419 | 22 HR | 69 RBI | 1 SB | 55 BB | 134 K

FanGraphs’ Fans (5) – 545 AB | .266/.358/.483 | 28 HR | 101 RBI | 1 SB | 72 BB | 125 K

My Prediction:

2018 Prediction – N/A

2018 Actual – 60 AB | .267/.375/.417 | 2 HR | 10 RBI | 0 SB | 10 BB | 13 K

 

2019 Prediction – 504 AB | .234/.316/.429 | 20 HR | 72 RBI | 0 SB | 58 BB | 145 K

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On 3/6/2019 at 1:49 PM, Shelton said:

There is nothing fun about small sample sizes. 

That's what she said.

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3 hours ago, bobrob2004 said:

Bobrob’s 2019 Preseason Prediction #6 – Christin Gaylin Harris Stewart

Experts’ Predictions/Projections:

Steamer – 438 AB | .246/.328/.449 | 22 HR | 66 RBI | 1 SB | 51 BB | 114 K

ZiPS – 500 AB | .232/.314/.428 | 23 HR | 76 RBI | 1 SB | 55 BB | 151 K

THE BAT – 358 AB | .232/.324/.427 | 16 HR | 49 RBI | 2 SB | 44 BB | 107 K

RotoChamp – 356 AB | .244/.340/.435 | 16 HR | 55 RBI | 0 SB | 49 BB | 95 K

CBS Sports – 371 AB | .259/.333/.439 | 14 HR | 51 RBI | 5 SB | 40 BB | 96 K

ESPN – 473 AB | .220/.308/.419 | 22 HR | 69 RBI | 1 SB | 55 BB | 134 K

FanGraphs’ Fans (5) – 545 AB | .266/.358/.483 | 28 HR | 101 RBI | 1 SB | 72 BB | 125 K

My Prediction:

2018 Prediction – N/A

2018 Actual – 60 AB | .267/.375/.417 | 2 HR | 10 RBI | 0 SB | 10 BB | 13 K

 

2019 Prediction – 504 AB | .234/.316/.429 | 20 HR | 72 RBI | 0 SB | 58 BB | 145 K

Seems a very wide range of projections up there ..from 356 AB to 545 AB ..from .308 OBP to .358 OBP ..from 14 HR to 28 HR ..from 49 RBI to 101 RBI ..from .308 OBP to .358 OBP ..from .419 SLG to .483 SLG ..and from ~.727 OPS to ~.841 OPS.

Interesting that every source projects his SLG higher than last year's small MLB sample size ..whereas they also all have his OBP lower.

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Bobrob’s 2019 Preseason Prediction #7 – Tyson William Ross

The Tigers hope Tyson Ross can become this year’s Mike Fiers.  Be good enough for the first half to trade for something at the deadline.  Once upon a time, Ross was a really good pitcher.  From 2013-2015 in over 516 innings, Ross had a 3.07 ERA, a 3.13 FIP, and averaged over a strikeout an inning.  Then he suffered a shoulder injury that made him miss most of the 2016 season and hasn’t been the same pitcher since.

In 2015, Ross threw his sinker almost 35% of the time with a 61.5% ground ball rate.  He also had a 9.7 K/9 that year. I personally love that combination.  However, it was his slider that is his best pitch with a .195 batting average against and 141 strikeouts in 338 AB during 2015.  In 2018, it was still his best pitch with .200 batting average against and 84 strikeouts in 255 AB.  He throws his slider more often than any other pitch (41% both in 2015 and in 2018) which may have led to his shoulder injury.

In 2018 Ross only threw his sinker 6% of the time, instead throwing a more traditional 4-seam fastball.  As a result, his ground ball rate was 45.9%, the lowest of his career.  His HR/FB rate was 14%, the highest of his career.  He didn’t have terrible results (4.15 ERA), but his FIP (4.39) and BABIP (.270) suggest he was on the lucky side.  When he was traded to the Cardinals, they moved him to the bullpen, which he was much more effective (4.38 ERA as a starter; 2.66 ERA as a reliever).  The Tigers view him exclusively as a starter. 

For 2019, it may be unreasonable to think that he can get back to his 2015 form.  He has reinvented himself.  Unfortunately, that probably means he will never be as good as he once was.

Experts’ Predictions/Projections:

Steamer – 91 IP | 4-7 W/L | 5.27 ERA | 1.56 WHIP | 65 K | 41 BB

ZiPS – 117 1/3 IP | 7-7 W/L | 4.68 ERA | 1.48 WHIP | 88 K | 53 BB

THE BAT – 92 IP | 5-6 W/L | 4.22 ERA | 1.36 WHIP | 80 K | 37 BB

RotoChamp – 146 IP | 7-9 W/L | 4.50 ERA | 1.39 WHIP | 118 K | 67 BB

CBS Sports – 146 1/3 IP | 7-14 W/L | 5.23 ERA | 1.46 WHIP | 122 K | 60 BB

ESPN – 149 IP | 7 W | 4.65 ERA | 1.41 WHIP | 117 K | 64 BB

FanGraphs’ Fans – N/A

My Prediction:

2018 Prediction – N/A

2018 Actual – 149 2/3 IP | 8-9 W/L | 4.15 ERA | 1.296 WHIP | 122 K | 62 BB

 

2019 Prediction – 151 2/3 IP | 6-12 W/L | 4.57 ERA | 1.411 WHIP | 124 K | 67 BB

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If Tyson does not pitch better than any/all of those predictions ..then do not expect a decent return in trade.

 

Personally ..I'll project as follows:

161 IP | 11-8 W/L | 3.81 ERA | 1.26 WHIP | 143 K | 60 BB

 

One big obstacle for Tiger pitchers this year will be the atrocious outfield corner defense.  Better hope Nick and Christian play defense together only 20 games ..with each sharing DH most of the time and Mahtook / Niko take turns in the outfield when they do.

Either that or Stewart and Nick better each hit 30+ HR's.

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Bobrob’s 2019 Preseason Prediction #8 – Cartier Niko Goodrum

Normally I wouldn’t do bench players, but Goodrum is different this year.  For the first time in a long time the Tigers do not have a traditional DH.  John Hicks will get his fair share of AB there, but for the most part it will be a revolving door with Cabrera, Castellanos, Stewart, and Candelario with Goodrum filling in their normal positions.  Goodrum will be seen as a “super” sub (even though there is nothing “super” about his stats) giving him a full seasons worth of PA without having a permanent position.  Jack of all trades, master of none.

The thing that sticks out to me is Goodrum’s inconsistency.  In his first 64 PA, Goodrum hit .193/.281/.316.  Then in his next 200 PA, he hit .278/.340/.506.  Then in his next 146 PA, he hit .167/.247/.326.  In his final 82 PA, he hit .347/.402/.533.  Now most players go through hot and cold streaks, but with Goodrum they seem more pronounced. 

At 26 years old, 2018 was his first full season in the Majors.  Overall he hit .245/.315/.432 with a very average 102 OPS+ and 103 wRC+.  I believe Goodrum’s production sticks out more because the Tigers lack good hitters.  Gardenhire likes to bat Goodrum in the 4-6 spots in the lineup, mainly due to his .187 ISO; only Castellanos had more power with a .202 ISO.  I do question Goodrum’s power since he never had it that high in the minors.  He had a .176 ISO in 207 PA in AA in 2016 and a .161 ISO in 499 PA in AAA in 2017.  Maybe the better lights in the Majors made him see the ball better.  He wouldn't be the first player to gain power after reaching the Majors. 

Goodrum’s walk rate was 8.5% last year, down from the 10-14% he showed most of the minors (although it was down to 6% in AAA).  I can’t imagine it getting much higher than that.  He also displays a high strikeout rate (26.8%) typical of a power hitter.  He’ll probably suffer a little sophomore slump as his scouting report circulates around the league.  But then again he’ll probably have a good month or two.  Basically an inconsistent hitter that averages into, well an average-ish hitter.  Nothing wrong with that.

Experts’ Predictions/Projections:

Steamer – 396 AB | .238/.301/.392 | 12 HR | 48 RBI | 9 SB | 34 BB | 114 K

ZiPS – 435 AB | .230/.292/.391 | 14 HR | 50 RBI | 12 SB | 36 BB | 135 K

THE BAT – 388 AB | .238/.305/.404 | 13 HR | 46 RBI | 9 SB | 36 BB | 115 K

RotoChamp – 425 AB | .242/.311/.426 | 15 HR | 49 RBI | 11 SB | 40 BB | 129 K

CBS Sports – 457 AB | .260/.337/.466 | 19 HR | 63 RBI | 14 SB | 48 BB | 130 K

ESPN – 545 AB | .246/.307/.435 | 20 HR | 69 RBI | 13 SB | 46 BB | 160 K

FanGraphs’ Fans (7) – 476 AB | .250/.316/.420 | 16 HR | 61 RBI | 15 SB | 44 BB | 128 K

My Prediction:

2018 Prediction – N/A

2018 Actual – 444 AB | .245/.315/.432 | 16 HR | 53 RBI | 12 SB | 42 BB | 132 K

 

2019 Prediction – 460 AB | .228/.303/.420 | 17 HR | 54 RBI | 10 SB | 46 BB | 134 K

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With no research other than standard bbref .. I think Niko will be better this year ..in slightly fewer at bats.

440 AB | .250/.325/.435 | 19 HR | 57 RBI | 20 SB | 47 BB | 130 K

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