Jump to content

bobrob2004

2019 Preseason Predictions

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, tiger337 said:

yeah, I think the position players are mostly set for opening day.  I'm not expecting any surprises there.  The bullpen is wide open, but it probably will be all year.      

I’m not sure it is.  Greene, Jimenez, VerHagen, Hardy and Stumpf I think are locks.  Farmer and Reed likely, too.  And if Norris wins a rotation spot, Moore to the pen.  I think some guys might fail or get injured and lose their spots as the season progresses, but I think the competition this spring is not as great.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm hoping the bullpen can at least be respectable.  VerHagen and Farmer really need to "find" it this year.  Who knows how many more chances those guys are going to get.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, gmoney said:

I'm hoping the bullpen can at least be respectable.  VerHagen and Farmer really need to "find" it this year.  Who knows how many more chances those guys are going to get

VerHagen found it last year.   He needs to keep it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, LooseGoose said:

VerHagen found it last year.   He needs to keep it.

VerHagen had a 4.63 ERA last year. He didn't find anything. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

VerHagen's splits for last year show he truly did have a terrific 2nd half (July, Aug, Sept).  Furthermore, if you take away his one spot start on June 4th last year when he was called up from Toledo to start the 1st game of a double header ..his entire season was encouraging.  In that one spot start he gave up 7 earned runs in 3.2 innings.  In all other games for the entire season his ERA was 3.76.  

Hopefully he will continue the upward trend and be a positive contributor all season long out of the bullpen.  Optimistically, the Tigers could win 75+ games ..or even flirt with 80+ wins.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ok, VerHagen had a very good 20 or so innings in the 2nd half of last year, I'll give you that.  

My problem is that I have trust issues with relief pitchers after I felt Alburquerque could be a valuable reliever after his very good 2014 season.  I will not get fooled again.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One of our converted starters eventually has to pan out as a very good reliever, a la Joe Nathan/Wade Davis/Andrew Miller.  Each came up as a starter, but didn't put it together until they started working in the pen and could develop their FB and a very good secondary pitch.  Both VerHagen and Farmer have that potential.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

One of our converted starters eventually has to pan out as a very good reliever, a la Joe Nathan/Wade Davis/Andrew Miller.  Each came up as a starter, but didn't put it together until they started working in the pen and could develop their FB and a very good secondary pitch.  Both VerHagen and Farmer have that potential.

The difference here is that those guys immediately started dominating as soon as they were moved to the bullpen.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bobrob’s 2019 Preseason Prediction #4 - Jeimer “I Have No Middle Name” Candelario

When evaluating Candelario, there are many factors that could go either way in determining if he is going to have a good 2019 season or a bad 2019 season.  2018 was his first full season in the Majors after playing in 38 games in 2017.  When a player is this exposed to the Majors, the league is going to figure out his weaknesses and it’s up to the player to see if he can adjust.  Candelario didn’t adjust very well.  But, he also suffered a wrist injury that was bothering him almost all year.  So were his struggles injury-based or lack of adjustment based? 

Candelario suffered his wrist injury on May 12.  At that point, he was hitting .272/.359/.497 and was one of the Tigers best hitters.  After coming back from the DL (or IL or whatever they are calling it these days) on May 25, he hit .207/.301/.355 in his final 452 PA.  Personally, I think some of his struggles were due to his injury, but I wouldn’t pin all of it on the injury.

Candelario improved his ISO from .142 to .169 and with an injury-free year, it could possibly increase to around .180 and higher.  Although I wouldn’t expect a huge increase in home run production.  His HR/FB rate was 12.2% last year; the highest it was in the minors was 14.8%.  His FB rate was 40.6% last year and I don’t see that significantly changing based on his minor league numbers.  I could see him topping out at 25 HR in his prime, which he is still a couple of years away from.

His 10.7% BB rate made him a popular option for lead-off hitter at the end of the 2018 season.  It was regularly between 12-14% in the minors, so I can see an improvement in this category.  Unfortunately, his BABIP was only .279 last year (with an xBA of .215 according to Baseball Savant), so unless he can improve his hitting ability he will never be a very high OBP guy.  However, I can see him hitting in the .240s in his prime, which would give him a league-average to slightly higher OBP. 

Experts’ Predictions/Projections:

Steamer – 540 AB | .239/.323/.411 | 19 HR | 67 RBI | 3 SB | 62 BB | 146 K

ZiPS – 540 AB | .235/.315/.402 | 17 HR | 62 RBI | 2 SB | 59 BB | 151 K

THE BAT – 545 AB | .237/.319/.412 | 19 HR | 67 RBI | 3 SB | 61 BB | 149 K

RotoChamp – 536 AB | .233/.323/.399 | 18 HR | 55 RBI | 3 SB | 65 BB | 155 K

CBS Sports – 503 AB | .241/.340/.429 | 20 HR | 56 RBI | 3 SB | 68 BB | 151 K

ESPN – 586 AB | .227/.311/.401 | 20 HR | 66 RBI | 2 SB | 65 BB | 170 K

FanGraphs’ Fans – N/A

My Prediction:

2018 Prediction – 497 AB | .268/.353/.404 | 11 HR | 63 RBI | 0 SB | 66 BB | 111 K

2018 Actual – 539 AB | .224/.317/.393 | 19 HR | 54 RBI | 3 SB | 66 BB | 160 K

 

2019 Prediction – 544 AB | .241/.337/.410 | 19 HR | 49 RBI | 2 SB | 71 BB | 158 K

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, LooseGoose said:

Of course you know better but I'll play along.   7.11 in the 1st half, 2.61 in the 2nd half if you like using ERA.

Go ahead and have fun here: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=verhadr01&year=2018&t=p

He only pitches well after they are already out of contention.  Another Tony Clark.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

He only pitches well after they are already out of contention.  Another Tony Clark.  

Will be confirmed or refuted by 5/1.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, LooseGoose said:

Will be confirmed or refuted by 5/1.

It also depends on whether they stay in the race or not.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, bobrob2004 said:

Bobrob’s 2019 Preseason Prediction #4 - Jeimer “I Have No Middle Name” Candelario

2018 Actual – 539 AB | .224/.317/.393 | 19 HR | 54 RBI | 3 SB | 66 BB | 160 K

2019 Prediction – 544 AB | .241/.337/.410 | 19 HR | 49 RBI | 2 SB | 71 BB | 158 K

Curious .. for Jamier, you predict more AB's (w/more Hits), plus a better BA, OBP, and SLG than last year ..but fewer RBI's.

Why?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Tigrrfan said:

Curious .. for Jamier, you predict more AB's (w/more Hits), plus a better BA, OBP, and SLG than last year ..but fewer RBI's.

Why?

Theirs not to reason why, Theirs but to do and die............

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, RatkoVarda said:

DVH has convinced me he's good. Farmer just sucks.

Farmer doesn’t suck. He just hasn’t convinced you he’s good yet. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, Tigrrfan said:

Curious .. for Jamier, you predict more AB's (w/more Hits), plus a better BA, OBP, and SLG than last year ..but fewer RBI's.

Why?

I assume Candelario will be the lead off hitter for most of the year as we don't really have anyone better. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This thread sucks. Too many words. Too many numbers.

Where’s the thread where we say the tigers will win the central? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, bobrob2004 said:

I assume Candelario will be the lead off hitter for most of the year as we don't really have anyone better. 

Are you high? Dollars to donuts Candelario NEVER hits leadoff. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Shelton said:

Farmer doesn’t suck. He just hasn’t convinced you he’s good yet. 

VerHagen did well in a small sample size.  Farmer has sucked in every small sample size with the Tigers.   This is a question for Pyro.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, thefunk said:

This thread sucks. Too many words. Too many numbers.

Where’s the thread where we say the tigers will win the central? 

Start a thread where we predict the Tigers victory total and how far they get in post-season.  We do that every year.  If they turn out to be good, you can all tell us "told you so" at the end of the year.   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, thefunk said:

This thread sucks. Too many words. Too many numbers.

Where’s the thread where we say the tigers will win the central? 

Start it. I’m in. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, thefunk said:

This thread sucks. Too many words. Too many numbers.

Where’s the thread where we say the tigers will win the central? 

You're 5 years too late. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, thefunk said:

Are you high? Dollars to donuts Candelario NEVER hits leadoff. 

Who is our lead off hitter?  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Forum Statistics

    • Total Topics
      96,441
    • Total Posts
      2,874,659
  • Who's Online (See full list)

  • Upcoming Events

    No upcoming events found
×
×
  • Create New...