Jump to content

Sydney_Fife

2019 Playoff Chase

Recommended Posts

The move they needed wasn't to bring in Conley, it was to dump contracts, shoot for a top 5 lottery pick, and bring in more picks/youth on top of that. The move they made instead (no move) was a vote for mediocrity and NBA purgatory. It was a coward's play. Do nothing, take no chances, and be mediocre rather than going all in on a rebuild or even putting your money where your mouth is and betting on the "Blake window". Instead they walked the middle of the road with a team that's reached its ceiling in order to fight and squeak into the playoffs in the hopes of losing 1-4 instead of 0-4. It's a joke and an insult to the fan base - but the fan base has checked out, so maybe it's only us on this board still paying attention and arguing about it. At least that's what it looks like from the empty arena.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Betrayer said:

The move they needed wasn't to bring in Conley, it was to dump contracts, shoot for a top 5 lottery pick, and bring in more picks/youth on top of that. The move they made instead (no move) was a vote for mediocrity and NBA purgatory. It was a coward's play. Do nothing, take no chances, and be mediocre rather than going all in on a rebuild or even putting your money where your mouth is and betting on the "Blake window". Instead they walked the middle of the road with a team that's reached its ceiling in order to fight and squeak into the playoffs in the hopes of losing 1-4 instead of 0-4. It's a joke and an insult to the fan base - but the fan base has checked out, so maybe it's only us on this board still paying attention and arguing about it. At least that's what it looks like from the empty arena.

A top 5 pick requires you to be incredibly awful. This team simply has too much talent to be that bad, and moving guys would not have gotten you into the top 5 anyway. You underestimate how bad the 5 worst teams in the NBA are. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, 313DetroitCity said:

A top 5 pick requires you to be incredibly awful. This team simply has too much talent to be that bad, and moving guys would not have gotten you into the top 5 anyway. You underestimate how bad the 5 worst teams in the NBA are. 

They had 22 wins on February 2nd. Currently the #5 worst team has 29 wins. I think it's actually very possible had they made the right trades to dump contracts and then claimed "injury" on whichever player remained like LA did with Lebron. Even the 6th or 7th worst teams have a 1 in 3 shot at winding up in the top 4 and the 8th and 9th have a 1 in 4 chance at it. Every one of those outcomes would have been better than standing in the middle of the road to get hit by the mediocrity bus.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Shelton said:

I think they trade Blake this offseason. 

is that even possible? (contract wise, that is)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

is that even possible? (contract wise, that is)

If you can trade for Blake, you can trade Blake away. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Shelton said:

I think they trade Blake this offseason. 

Yeah... that ain't happening...

The player who gets traded this offseason will be Reggie Jackson... for Conley or some other PG of your choosing...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, 84 Lives!!! said:

Yeah... that ain't happening...

The player who gets traded this offseason will be Reggie Jackson... for Conley or some other PG of your choosing...

We’ll see. They didn’t have many options this past offseason, so a playoff push made some sense. But with blake’s Value increased, they could decide to tear down and start their own “process.”

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Shelton said:

We’ll see. They didn’t have many options this past offseason, so a playoff push made some sense. But with blake’s Value increased, they could decide to tear down and start their own “process.”

Don't think that happens with Gores. I mean... that's the bottom line IMO. I've seen everyone on here beating their heads against a wall for 4-5 years? or so, looking for a complete tear-down of the team. And it just isn't going to happen with Gores...

At some point, all you guys are going to do with all this brick wall head-banging is... give yourselves brain aneurysms.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
51 minutes ago, Shelton said:

If you can trade for Blake, you can trade Blake away. 

 

so you're saying someone has hired SVG as a GM again?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Deleterious said:

On a serious note.  A series price isn't any type of indicator on what a teams actual chances are of winning.  

Correct, and I think this point gets forgotten a lot when odds and point spreads are kicked around.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Shelton said:

I think they trade Blake this offseason. 

Interesting.

It depends on what they get back in return and if it jives with what Gores wants to do going forward.  I would think that there has to be some sort of immediate gratification to it.  It'd have to be a deal that keeps them afloat in the playoff contention neighborhood.  I don't know if that deal is out there or not.  Maybe a team like Denver thinks its close enough and wants that added veteran all star and floats over a few rotation pieces that make sense for Detroit (just to throw something purely high level and hypothetical out there).

I know Drummond was rumored to be on the block, but I don't see that.  I don't see Gores agreeing to that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Casimir said:

Correct, and I think this point gets forgotten a lot when odds and point spreads are kicked around.

There is nothing wrong with discussing probabilities. 

Del is the one who brought gambling into the discussion. 

That said, Vegas odds and point spreads, while different, are still decent prediction tools in most cases. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, Deleterious said:

You can trade anyone if your expected returns are low enough.

 

And if the guy is going to be 3rd team All-NBA...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, Shelton said:

There is nothing wrong with discussing probabilities. 

Del is the one who brought gambling into the discussion. 

That said, Vegas odds and point spreads, while different, are still decent prediction tools in most cases. 

Decent, OK.  There's also a bit of public perception built into the numbers.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Casimir said:

Decent, OK.  There's also a bit of public perception built into the numbers.

I don’t disagree. That’s why I qualified my statement by saying decent and most cases. 

Going back to your original point that I disagreed with, I’m only saying that detroit’s chance of making it to the second round (if they are in the playoffs) is higher than the chance of succeeding in the lottery (if they miss the playoffs).

If you know of a model (538, Vegas odds, another analytic model, etc.) that gives a playoff team odds below 4%, I’d like to see it. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, Shelton said:

I don’t disagree. That’s why I qualified my statement by saying decent and most cases. 

Going back to your original point that I disagreed with, I’m only saying that detroit’s chance of making it to the second round (if they are in the playoffs) is higher than the chance of succeeding in the lottery (if they miss the playoffs).

If you know of a model (538, Vegas odds, another analytic model, etc.) that gives a playoff team odds below 4%, I’d like to see it. 

That's fine, if we want to stick with making the second round the ultimate goal at hand and you see that the odds are higher for that than winning draft lottery, I'll believe it.  I'll also go back to, is an upset series win to get to the second round really what we want?  We're cool with mediocrity?

Is Gores going to have a ceremony to hang a first round victory banner?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, Casimir said:

That's fine, if we want to stick with making the second round the ultimate goal at hand and you see that the odds are higher for that than winning draft lottery, I'll believe it.  I'll also go back to, is an upset series win to get to the second round really what we want?  We're cool with mediocrity?

Is Gores going to have a ceremony to hang a first round victory banner?

I don’t really have a strong feeling either way on that. But no one has suggested making the second round is the ultimate goal. An upset series win to get to the second round would be preferable to a first round loss, tho. 

I think it can be entertaining for fans to compete in the playoffs and to advance past a superior opponent. Getting swept isn’t any fun, of course. But I don’t think the entertainment factor should be so easily dismissed. The team is so far away from being a championship contender, that if that is the only thing that truly matters, what’s the point of even following the team at all?

Don't get me wrong, competing for and winning a championship is great. I just think there are plenty things short of that goal that can still be valuable. 

I don’t think that has to mean that we are cool with mediocrity. I just think it’s ok to be entertained by the mediocrity when something entertaining happens. A series win would be entertaining.

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

if the pistons lose to the knicks on the final day of the year, with henry ellenson killing them all game, and it knocks them out of the playoffs, it will be official: the pistons will have become the lions.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
55 minutes ago, Buddha said:

if the pistons lose to the knicks on the final day of the year, with henry ellenson killing them all game, and it knocks them out of the playoffs, it will be official: the pistons will have become the lions.

Big game from Henry?  So six points?

The Knicks have already clinched the worst record in the league.  So they can now rest their crappy players like Ellenson.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So confusing with all of the different tie breaker situations.

The Nets won today, which I think is actually good for Detroit.  It hurt Miami's odds of getting Brooklyn and Detroit into a three way tie with them.  Somehow Detroit misses the playoffs if there is a three way tie, so the Nets win was good.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Pistons magic number is 2. They’re a game ahead of Charlotte and Miami. 

Their magic number on Miami is 1, but Charlotte has the tiebreak so it’s 2 with them. 

A 2 day, 2 game season. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Brooklyn - a well coached, well run team - goes into Indy and blows out the Pacers a day after beating the Bucks in Milwaukee (albeit without Giannis).  

Detroit loses at home to Charlotte.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Buddha said:

Brooklyn - a well coached, well run team - goes into Indy and blows out the Pacers a day after beating the Bucks in Milwaukee (albeit without Giannis).  

Detroit loses at home to Charlotte.  

Orlando up 14 in the 4th in Boston. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
×
  • Create New...