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Sydney_Fife

2019 Playoff Chase

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They would be 13th or 14th in the draft lottery most likely.  So a 3.4% or 3.8% chance to move up into the top 4.  So yeah, a higher chance of that than beating someone in the first round.  

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9 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

They would be 13th or 14th in the draft lottery most likely.  So a 3.4% or 3.8% chance to move up into the top 4.  So yeah, a higher chance of that than beating someone in the first round.  

I know it’s easy to say that the pistons would have no chance to win a first round series, but I think their their chances are still greater than 4%.

By way of example, in last year’s playoffs, the lowest odds of any team making the second round was 8% for the timberwolves against the rockets. The wizards had a 9% chance against Toronto and the heat had a 12% chance against philly. (538 was the source for this).

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I only threw 2nd round out there because that's the absolute best that this collection is going to achieve.  Is that what we want this team to settle on?  Because I'd prefer a longer term plan of trying to build something that has a reasonable chance at getting past the second round.  If that means missing the playoffs now, so be it.

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5 minutes ago, Casimir said:

I only threw 2nd round out there because that's the absolute best that this collection is going to achieve.  Is that what we want this team to settle on?  Because I'd prefer a longer term plan of trying to build something that has a reasonable chance at getting past the second round.  If that means missing the playoffs now, so be it.

I don’t think earning yourself a 3-4% chance at a top four pick is much of a long term plan. 

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10 minutes ago, Shelton said:

I know it’s easy to say that the pistons would have no chance to win a first round series, but I think their their chances are still greater than 4%.

By way of example, in last year’s playoffs, the lowest odds of any team making the second round was 8% for the timberwolves against the rockets. The wizards had a 9% chance against Toronto and the heat had a 12% chance against philly. (538 was the source for this).

What would you say their odds are in the first round, completely healthy?

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1 minute ago, Deleterious said:

What would you say their odds are in the first round, completely healthy?

Higher than 4%.

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2 hours ago, Deleterious said:

I'm terrified of The Pistons getting the #1 pick, or a high pick.

If they did, the proper thing to do would be instantly burn this thing down and build around that pick.  Get a bunch of picks/players whos window matches the high pick.  But they wont do that.  Instead they will tell us how great the core of Blake/Drummond/pick is.  Never mind that most rookies need 2-4 years before they are ready to be serious contributors on championship teams.  By then Blake will be 32 or 33 years old and done.  Andre will be 28 or 29, and fading.  They wont attract any big free agents, cause Detroit.  Trades are possible, but Detroit has garbage players and its tough to turn those into good players.  They wont have the draft to build from because they will keep making the playoffs and losing in the 1st/2nd round, so they draft in the late teens or early 20's.  

They could have traded their first round pick & Kennard to get Conley. They didn't.

I don't think this front office  is going "all in" on this core, as much as they are trying to play out these contracts while staying semi relevant as a playoff team. 

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2 minutes ago, Shelton said:

Higher than 4%.

You would lose a lot of money on that bet.

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1 minute ago, Deleterious said:

You would lose a lot of money on that bet.

Which bet?

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6 minutes ago, 313DetroitCity said:

They could have traded their first round pick & Kennard to get Conley. They didn't.

I don't think this front office  is going "all in" on this core, as much as they are trying to play out these contracts while staying semi relevant as a playoff team. 

So they can build around 31 year old Griffin?  That seems like a bad idea.

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Good breakdown.  This was before the Indiana game.

https://www.clickondetroit.com/sports/detroit-pistons-playoff-push-breaking-down-final-5-games-other-contenders-possible-scenarios

Quote

Scenarios

If the Pistons somehow finish 5-0, they're guaranteed to earn the No. 6 seed. That seems highly unlikely, with a road trip to Oklahoma City and home games against Indiana and Charlotte.

The Pistons are also basically guaranteed to have the No. 6 seed if they finish 4-1. Only the Nets and Heat would be able to tie the Pistons in that scenario, and they would have to go undefeated. That would include the Nets beating Toronto, Milwaukee and Indiana or the Heat beating Boston, Toronto, Philadelphia and Brooklyn.

Even a 3-2 record bodes well for the Pistons in their quest to earn the No. 6 seed. The Magic and Hornets couldn't catch the Pistons -- the Magic because of the head-to-head tiebreaker.

The only way the Pistons could fall out of the No. 6 seed if they go 3-2 is if the Nets go 4-0 or 3-1 against their difficult schedule. Due to tiebreakers, the Heat could only catch the Pistons in this scenario by going 5-0 or by going 4-1 and having the Nets finish 3-1 with their only loss to the Heat.

At 2-3, the Pistons would open the door to disaster because the Nets and Heat could both lose multiple games and pass the Pistons, and the Magic would also be in play thanks to a manageable schedule.

The Pistons would almost certainly fall to No. 8 or out of the postseason if they finish 1-4, and 0-5 would be a playoff death sentence.

 

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9 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

Anything giving them those crazy odds.  

Timberwolves were +1500 last year. 

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33 minutes ago, Shelton said:

I don’t think earning yourself a 3-4% chance at a top four pick is much of a long term plan. 

Do they have a long term plan?

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1 minute ago, Casimir said:

Do they have a long term plan?

Be mediocre for a couple more years, bottom out, then hope to get lucky in the draft. 

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Just now, Shelton said:

Be mediocre for a couple more years, bottom out, then hope to get lucky in the draft. 

So, kick the can of inevitability down the road?

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The other benefit to missing the playoffs is a quicker dismissal to those god awful city jerseys.

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1 minute ago, Casimir said:

So, kick the can of inevitability down the road?

I think the can was kicked down the road a long time ago. They need to catch back up to it. SVG has a strong leg. 

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Just now, Shelton said:

I think the can was kicked down the road a long time ago. They need to catch back up to it. SVG has a strong leg. 

How is the Lions' kicking game?  Should they be looking to upgrade?

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20 minutes ago, Shelton said:

Timberwolves were +1500 last year. 

Should have jumped on that.  

On a serious note.  A series price isn't any type of indicator on what a teams actual chances are of winning.  

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The Pistons best chance might be against Philly and hope Embiid is out with that knee.  Or at least hobbled a bit.  

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Tough break for Miami.  They are saying Richardson could miss up to two weeks with a groin injury.  

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50 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

So they can build around 31 year old Griffin?  That seems like a bad idea.

Why are you brushing aside the point? If they were "all in" on this core, they would have made a move for Conley, right?

The front office specifically said they were not interested in trading assets and future picks for a guy who wouldn't make them contenders. The only moves they have made thus far is to increase flexibility. 

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having to adjust to having too much talent is not top of my concerns for the pistons.

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13 minutes ago, 313DetroitCity said:

Why are you brushing aside the point? If they were "all in" on this core, they would have made a move for Conley, right?

The front office specifically said they were not interested in trading assets and future picks for a guy who wouldn't make them contenders. The only moves they have made thus far is to increase flexibility. 

No.  It just means the recognize Conley doesn't move the needle for this team and he's older and more broken down than Griffin.

We'll see what happens this summer.  If they don't sell by then then I see years of treadmill like progress for this organization.  

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