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The Nolan Arenado Thing

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Supposedly the Yankees are hoping that Arenado and the Rockies don't consummate the long-term deal that they're working on, so the Yanks can take a run at him when he's a free agent after the season.  Reports say that they are fixated on him big-time over Machado and Harper.

But why?  He's a fine player, but like so many Rockies stars of the past, his numbers at Coors are stratospheric but his numbers away from there certainly are not.  Last year, his OPS at home was 1.105, while on the road it was just .772.   For his career, he's at .984 in Denver, .787 everywhere else.  Not terrible on the road, but certainly not a monster, either.

Also, Yankee Stadium is much friendlier to left-handed power hitters than right-handed ones.  It seems to work okay for guys like Judge and Stanton who hit the ball 500 feet, but may not for someone like Arenado.  (Stanton, by the way, was much better overall on the road last year than he was at home, although he did hit slightly more than half of his home runs in Yankee Stadium.) 

Arenado is a terrific defender, of course, and that ability should travel well.  But third-base defense is much less important than that in the middle infield, and third base is thus much more of a hitting-first position.

Arenado would probably be all right in the Bronx, but he almost certainly wouldn't put up anything like his overall numbers in Colorado..  So I don't get why the Yankees are so high on him.

Now the lefty-hitting Harper is a different story.  If the Yanks can get him for the relative bargain price or short-term deal that he may have to settle for -- especially since it has been widely reported for years that he has always wanted to be a Yankee -- he could be scary.

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I think road splits for Colorado players can be misleading.  In that division you play at Dodger Stadium, Att Park and Petco.  Three extremely tough places to hit.(atleast they were, I'm too lazy to look it up now but I assume they still are)   When a 1/3 of your road games are in those parks it's going to take its toll on your overall numbers.   

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22 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

I think road splits for Colorado players can be misleading.  In that division you play at Dodger Stadium, Att Park and Petco.  Three extremely tough places to hit.(atleast they were, I'm too lazy to look it up now but I assume they still are)   When a 1/3 of your road games are in those parks it's going to take its toll on your overall numbers.   

That's a fair point:  those parks are hard on hitters.  (If I remember correctly, AT&T, or whatever they  call it now, is especially bad for lefty hitters, which makes Barry Bonds's performance there all the more remarkable.  But I digress.) Still, Arenado did have two-thirds of his road games in places other than those three, and those OPS splits are pretty wide. And Yankee Stadium is no picnic for righthanded hitters, either.

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