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ROMAD1

The National Emergency Over the Wall

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10 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

He shut it down, and everyone (rightly so) blamed him.  He also succumbed to Pelosi and reopened it without getting any movement on his requests.  If he did that, and Pelosi doesn't even show any ability to even discuss it, the second one can be blamed on someone else.  As I said, there is no point getting you to blame someone else, it's not going to happen, but some in the middle might.

 

As for the wall, unfortunately you've been getting your news from too many meme's.  There are very serious folks that believe more wall will help.  It's not an end all be all, but overall it'll push more folks to specific crossing areas, allowing border patrol to put more focus on those entry points.  Last I remember hearing they felt improvements on about 500 existing miles of wall/fence and another 275 were needed.  You are right that I haven't heard any legitimate proposal for a wall across the entire landlocked southern border.  

That is true, but how many serious people think:

(1) It's worth shutting down the govt over:

(2) It's a national emergency.

(3) would have waited two years before responding to  this emergency.  

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28 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

That is true, but how many serious people think:

(1) It's worth shutting down the govt over:

(2) It's a national emergency.

(3) would have waited two years before responding to  this emergency.  

What we are witnessing is an attempt by Trumpers to repeat a falsehood so much and so long that people start to think that was reality all along. Fox has been very effective with this strategy for years. 

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1 minute ago, Euphdude said:

What we are witnessing is an attempt by Trumpers to repeat a falsehood so much and so long that people start to think that was reality all along. Fox has been very effective with this strategy for years. 

Gaslit Nation

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12 minutes ago, tigerbomb13 said:

Gaslit Nation

Constant outrage is a great way to get people to follow your message...or watch your network and it’s advertisers. 

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9 hours ago, ewsieg said:

Is there any precedent to rejecting a federal emergency?  Seems like the president has pretty broad powers in regards to this and just as some may argue that this is ongoing and not a true emergency right now, the counter-argument can point to flooding disasters.  The Fed's declare the emergency to provide funds to help with the aftermath, not the original issue.  

From a pure legal argument, I kind of think Trump would and should win.  Set's a horrible precedent though.  

 

If Trump declares an emergency over immigration and it is upheld, you can book it that Congress will change the law on Jan 4, 2021 if not before. I put the odds of the former as very low however.

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3 hours ago, Euphdude said:

What we are witnessing is an attempt by Trumpers to repeat a falsehood so much and so long that people start to think that was reality all along. Fox has been very effective with this strategy for years. 

This isn't really a one-sided strategy, both sides play on certain things and are more than happy to keep it up as long as it plays to their side and moves their agenda forward.  "Hands up, don't shoot" was allowed to continue because it worked to point to a problem.  You can look at the Duke and Rolling Stone rape scandals, lives were ruined because again, it pointed to a problem.  (Sharpton apologize for that yet?)  Criminals and Drugs can be stopped by a wall is being pushed because there are folks that believe illegal immigration is a problem and it fits that narrative.  

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42 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

If Trump declares an emergency over immigration and it is upheld, you can book it that Congress will change the law on Jan 4, 2021 if not before. 7I put the odds of the former as very low however.

That would be so cool to live in a country where the courts interpreted the law, congress made and modified law, especially when the interpretation of current law doesn't conform with the wants and needs of the country, and the executive enforced it.  

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3 hours ago, tiger337 said:

That is true, but how many serious people think:

(1) It's worth shutting down the govt over:

(2) It's a national emergency.

(3) would have waited two years before responding to  this emergency.  

Unfortunately too many people think 1,2, and/or 3.  That doesn't mean it's not an issue though.  Additionally, this is how current politics get driven.  The side that wants something exaggerates it wildly and the side that doesn't refuses to even concede a point.  So instead of debating a bunch of pros and cons, you have one side saying it will save every Americans life and the other side trying to make it sound like its the dumbest thing ever considered.  

At this point, if one side wins, we lose.

- No wall, the same debate continues until the republicans give up.  The experts calling for more border wall better focus on something else as they aren't getting it.

- Wall built, republicans will take a victory lap and try and move away from it completely, as it's "solved".  Democrats will all of a sudden focus on the legitimate issues of illegal immigration so they can claim the Wall clearly didn't fix it.  

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The biggest issue with a lot of physical barrier is that is it not cost effective, and in fact becomes a maintenance expense that draws resources from more cost effective methods. There certainly are some places that are such favorable crossing points that the barrier has value and I would guess many of the those already have a barrier in place. But once you get into barren areas, you have to man and maintain and surveil that wall to keep it intact, and if you are doing those things, the wall itself becomes largely superfluous, it's just a maintenance cost that isn't adding anything.

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50 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

The biggest issue with a lot of physical barrier is that is it not cost effective, and in fact becomes a maintenance expense that draws resources from more cost effective methods. There certainly are some places that are such favorable crossing points that the barrier has value and I would guess many of the those already have a barrier in place. But once you get into barren areas, you have to man and maintain and surveil that wall to keep it intact, and if you are doing those things, the wall itself becomes largely superfluous, it's just a maintenance cost that isn't adding anything.

As with everything, it depends on which research you choose to believe and exactly what you're trying to achieve with it.   I'm seen research that says the average illegal immigrant is a net drain on the US economy by 70k.  With that figure and the current rate of immigrants, you're looking at about 10 years to achieve your return on investment (assuming 25 billion for wall, 320-350k current crossings per year, 10% reduction rate due to wall).  Like you mention, need to account for upkeep.  You can certainly argue those numbers, as i've heard as low as 15k net drain average, upwards of 40 billion needed for the wall, current crossings have already been going down anyway (some contribute to Trump's rhetoric alone), and that 10% effect rate.

Additionally you need to ask yourself if the purpose of the wall is the ROI alone.  Let's say some additional wall, along with other measures like some Drones, might make the current number of border patrol agents more efficient.  Gas stations generally make little money on gas.  Sometimes they even lose if they just filled up and other stations get a better deal a day later and lower their prices.  They have to make a choice about losing money on gas and still getting customers in the door to buy pop/chips which is where they make their money, or let those sales suffer in order to make sure they at least make a little something on the gas.  If you look at the books alone, it makes no sense why they sell gas.  

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I think some of this might be the sequel Sicario 2.  I have watched the first (very good) Sicario a couple times and don't recall prayer rugs. I saw the prayer rug canard in the trailer for the second movie and decided against watching that one. 

 

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2 hours ago, ROMAD1 said:

I think some of this might be the sequel Sicario 2.  I have watched the first (very good) Sicario a couple times and don't recall prayer rugs. I saw the prayer rug canard in the trailer for the second movie and decided against watching that one. 

 

IIRC, Cheney used to think '24' was a good source of validation for torture 

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9 hours ago, ewsieg said:

As with everything, it depends on which research you choose to believe and exactly what you're trying to achieve with it.   I'm seen research that says the average illegal immigrant is a net drain on the US economy by 70k.  With that figure and the current rate of immigrants, you're looking at about 10 years to achieve your return on investment (assuming 25 billion for wall, 320-350k current crossings per year, 10% reduction rate due to wall).  Like you mention, need to account for upkeep.  You can certainly argue those numbers, as i've heard as low as 15k net drain average, upwards of 40 billion needed for the wall, current crossings have already been going down anyway (some contribute to Trump's rhetoric alone), and that 10% effect rate.

Additionally you need to ask yourself if the purpose of the wall is the ROI alone.  Let's say some additional wall, along with other measures like some Drones, might make the current number of border patrol agents more efficient.  Gas stations generally make little money on gas.  Sometimes they even lose if they just filled up and other stations get a better deal a day later and lower their prices.  They have to make a choice about losing money on gas and still getting customers in the door to buy pop/chips which is where they make their money, or let those sales suffer in order to make sure they at least make a little something on the gas.  If you look at the books alone, it makes no sense why they sell gas.  

Is there a source for this assumption?

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10 hours ago, ewsieg said:

As with everything, it depends on which research you choose to believe and exactly what you're trying to achieve with it.   I'm seen research that says the average illegal immigrant is a net drain on the US economy by 70k.  With that figure and the current rate of immigrants, you're looking at about 10 years to achieve your return on investment (assuming 25 billion for wall, 320-350k current crossings per year, 10% reduction rate due to wall).  Like you mention, need to account for upkeep.  You can certainly argue those numbers, as i've heard as low as 15k net drain average, upwards of 40 billion needed for the wall, current crossings have already been going down anyway (some contribute to Trump's rhetoric alone), and that 10% effect rate.

Additionally you need to ask yourself if the purpose of the wall is the ROI alone.  Let's say some additional wall, along with other measures like some Drones, might make the current number of border patrol agents more efficient.  Gas stations generally make little money on gas.  Sometimes they even lose if they just filled up and other stations get a better deal a day later and lower their prices.  They have to make a choice about losing money on gas and still getting customers in the door to buy pop/chips which is where they make their money, or let those sales suffer in order to make sure they at least make a little something on the gas.  If you look at the books alone, it makes no sense why they sell gas.  

I know it must have been uncomfortable to have all these numbers in your ***, so I get why you pulled them out, but there is no need to show them to me.

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8 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Is there a source for this assumption?

i've heard that specific number, can't remember if it was a 'if it only stops' or was built on evidence.  I just tried to google it and found nothing, but I've listened to quite a few podcasts and wonder if it came from there.  This American Life has done a handful of stories about immigration and the wall in the last few years, I was planning on listening to them again with all the wall talk, but just haven't gotten to it yet.

Note - Most of the walls in place were built recently.  If the 2008 recession is the reason for the dip in illegal entries, how come it's still going down 11 years later?  Could the wall we have be forcing folks to reconsider coming here knowing they might have to take a dangerous journey into the more remote desert areas to avoid the wall?  649 miles of wall/vehicle wall were built between 2006-2011.  Wiki 

In 2006 there were roughly 1.1 illegal crossings, 310k in 2017.  It's possible 2006 was a bit higher due to some outlier, and the reverse for 2017, but still, a major difference.  For that 10% number to be legitimate, you'd have to believe that roughly 100k of the roughly 800k that are no longer coming here, aren't coming here because of that wall.  We have evidence that the wall is forcing them around to more remote areas as well, so we have evidence of a behavioral change due to it.  

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2 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

I know it must have been uncomfortable to have all these numbers in your ***, so I get why you pulled them out, but there is no need to show them to me.

Not going to lie, I wish I could go through life only seeing what I want to see, what fits a narrative I've comfortable with.  Please sleep good tonight knowing there are people out there jealous that they can't be like you.

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3 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

i've heard that specific number, can't remember if it was a 'if it only stops' or was built on evidence.  I just tried to google it and found nothing, but I've listened to quite a few podcasts and wonder if it came from there.  This American Life has done a handful of stories about immigration and the wall in the last few years, I was planning on listening to them again with all the wall talk, but just haven't gotten to it yet.

Note - Most of the walls in place were built recently.  If the 2008 recession is the reason for the dip in illegal entries, how come it's still going down 11 years later?  Could the wall we have be forcing folks to reconsider coming here knowing they might have to take a dangerous journey into the more remote desert areas to avoid the wall?  649 miles of wall/vehicle wall were built between 2006-2011.  Wiki 

In 2006 there were roughly 1.1 illegal crossings, 310k in 2017.  It's possible 2006 was a bit higher due to some outlier, and the reverse for 2017, but still, a major difference.  For that 10% number to be legitimate, you'd have to believe that roughly 100k of the roughly 800k that are no longer coming here, aren't coming here because of that wall.  We have evidence that the wall is forcing them around to more remote areas as well, so we have evidence of a behavioral change due to it.  

The better question is how more barriers than what currently exists will be more effective. It's sort of what G2 was getting at in his post... the marginal utility of the barrier would be lower the further away from an existing border crossing area, most of which already have existing barriers.

Of course, what Trump's wall constitutes depends on who you ask... no one (not least of which the President) has done a good job of actually articulating what the finished product is supposed to be.

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57 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

IIRC, Cheney used to think '24' was a good source of validation for torture 

I read a book about the Bush 43 white house and Cheney was really influenced in his time in congress by working on disaster recovery planning.  He was part of a study group on what to do if we had a situation like the other Keifer Sutherland series, where he assumes the Presidency.  The thinking is that, along with his health issues, gave him a very stoic and clinical view of things.  Fatality was always fresh in his mind and something he felt needed to be strongly addressed.  It influenced his thinking when it came to 9/11.  Throw in all the bio/chemical warfare, the anthrax, etc. and he just figured it was going to happen in a bad way and we had to do anything to try to stop it.  

At one point during the anthrax scare it was uncertain whether he, Bush, Rice, and Powell, were exposed to something.  They were overseas waiting for the results.  It was 50/50 whether they'd all die very soon.

 

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2 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Of course, what Trump's wall constitutes depends on who you ask... no one (not least of which the President) has done a good job of actually articulating what the finished product is supposed to be.

Symbolism can take on many forms, but in the MAGA world its a tall concrete structure that's 2,000 miles long.  Whatever symbolism Trump manages to build will need to meet those lofty expectations, for without MAGA world Trump is nothing.

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17 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

i've heard that specific number, can't remember if it was a 'if it only stops' or was built on evidence.  I just tried to google it and found nothing, but I've listened to quite a few podcasts and wonder if it came from there.  This American Life has done a handful of stories about immigration and the wall in the last few years, I was planning on listening to them again with all the wall talk, but just haven't gotten to it yet.

Note - Most of the walls in place were built recently.  If the 2008 recession is the reason for the dip in illegal entries, how come it's still going down 11 years later?  Could the wall we have be forcing folks to reconsider coming here knowing they might have to take a dangerous journey into the more remote desert areas to avoid the wall?  649 miles of wall/vehicle wall were built between 2006-2011.  Wiki 

In 2006 there were roughly 1.1 illegal crossings, 310k in 2017.  It's possible 2006 was a bit higher due to some outlier, and the reverse for 2017, but still, a major difference.  For that 10% number to be legitimate, you'd have to believe that roughly 100k of the roughly 800k that are no longer coming here, aren't coming here because of that wall.  We have evidence that the wall is forcing them around to more remote areas as well, so we have evidence of a behavioral change due to it.  

Isn't it possible that b/c it was purchased from 2006-2011 (or whatever) that more is not needed in 2019?

I bought a house in 2014.  That means I don't need to buy one in 2019 - it doesn't mean I am compelled to buy one in 2019 because I bought one in 2014.

 

 

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1 minute ago, pfife said:

Isn't it possible that b/c it was purchased from 2006-2011 (or whatever) that more is not needed in 2019?

I bought a house in 2014.  That means I don't need to buy one in 2019 - it doesn't mean I am compelled to buy one in 2019 because I bought one in 2014.

 

 

Absolutely.  But as with all things, we have variables.  Did you buy too small of a house that doesn't meet your needs today?  

Again, i'm not saying the wall is the end all be all.  I'm just saying there are people that have nothing to gain politically that believe more wall will help. Even if they are correct that it will help, you're right to say that it doesn't mean it'll help enough to justify it.  Still there are some that are adamant that it's a need.  I've heard nothing saying a wall across the entire border will help, just some more wall in specific areas.   

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