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ROMAD1

The National Emergency Over the Wall

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32 minutes ago, Euphdude said:

I can’t think of a faster way to get Trump’s approvals into the 20s by invading Venezuela. 

Over the weekend I saw a few talking heads pointing out that no-one is talking about invading Venezuela and this morning seems like Trump may have asked about 'military options'.  If it was anyone else I wouldn't be worried, could just be talking about blockades or something like that to force Maduro to setup an election.  I definitely could see Trump drumming this up as a distraction though.  I support Trump recognizing Guaido and putting pressure on Maduro to accept an election, but that's about all we should be doing right now.

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48 minutes ago, Euphdude said:

I can’t think of a faster way to get Trump’s approvals into the 20s by invading Venezuela. 

I am sure that all MAGAers would be volunteering to go die in the streets of Caracas so we could get its oil wells back

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3 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

Over the weekend I saw a few talking heads pointing out that no-one is talking about invading Venezuela and this morning seems like Trump may have asked about 'military options'.  If it was anyone else I wouldn't be worried, could just be talking about blockades or something like that to force Maduro to setup an election.  I definitely could see Trump drumming this up as a distraction though.  I support Trump recognizing Guaido and putting pressure on Maduro to accept an election, but that's about all we should be doing right now.

Yep 

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2 minutes ago, ROMAD1 said:

Yep 

there is also talk about seizing the US assets of Citgo and putting them under Guaido's control. That would probably have a lot more moving parts to accomplish than it sounds.

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16 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

Over the weekend I saw a few talking heads pointing out that no-one is talking about invading Venezuela and this morning seems like Trump may have asked about 'military options'.  If it was anyone else I wouldn't be worried, could just be talking about blockades or something like that to force Maduro to setup an election.  I definitely could see Trump drumming this up as a distraction though.  I support Trump recognizing Guaido and putting pressure on Maduro to accept an election, but that's about all we should be doing right now.

I agree with this.  Hewitt's neo-con roots were on display with his comments -- even the majority of the MAGA movement isn't keen on warring with Venezuela.

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32 minutes ago, Euphdude said:

I agree with this.  Hewitt's neo-con roots were on display with his comments -- even the majority of the MAGA movement isn't keen on warring with Venezuela.

Just show pictures of protesting Venezuelans and announce they are coming to the US in a caravan. 

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2 hours ago, ewsieg said:

Over the weekend I saw a few talking heads pointing out that no-one is talking about invading Venezuela and this morning seems like Trump may have asked about 'military options'.  If it was anyone else I wouldn't be worried, could just be talking about blockades or something like that to force Maduro to setup an election.  I definitely could see Trump drumming this up as a distraction though.  I support Trump recognizing Guaido and putting pressure on Maduro to accept an election, but that's about all we should be doing right now.

Word

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January was crazy; February will be worse. Trump has boxed himself into a lose-lose choice.

Cocaine Mitch and Ayn Rand gave him $0.00 wall funding for 2 years because they knew it was a stupid idea. Instead he got 1.6 and 1.7B in boarder security each year. They were just going to have business as usual for 2019, until Doofus changed his mind.

So now we have 2 choices:

1) Dems will give him $5.7B for his stupid wall, if they get permanent DACA relief. Doofus will eventually agree to this because he desperately wants a) SOTU* and b) the wall. So Senate GOP would be forced to choose between 2 losing sh|t sandwiches: amnesty or open defiance of Trump.

2) Dems don't give him $5.7B, because he won't move on DACA. So, Pelosi just sends bill after bill to Mitch, which eventually will get 60 votes because the GOP Senators up for re-election can read the polls. (Also, the Senate GOP plan to end Trump's shutdown got 1 Dem vote; Schumer's plan to end Trump's shutdown got 8 GOP votes.) So then Trump would have to veto a bi-partisan budget bill.

*the SOTU, even if in July or August, will be 60 minutes of Doofus insulting Pelosi, Schumer, Mitch, and John Roberts - while telling Gorsuch and Kavenbro that they must rule in his favor regarding Mueller because they owe their jobs to him.

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3 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

January was crazy; February will be worse. Trump has boxed himself into a lose-lose choice.

Cocaine Mitch and Ayn Rand gave him $0.00 wall funding for 2 years because they knew it was a stupid idea. Instead he got 1.6 and 1.7B in boarder security each year. They were just going to have business as usual for 2019, until Doofus changed his mind.

So now we have 2 choices:

1) Dems will give him $5.7B for his stupid wall, if they get permanent DACA relief. Doofus will eventually agree to this because he desperately wants a) SOTU* and b) the wall. So Senate GOP would be forced to choose between 2 losing sh|t sandwiches: amnesty or open defiance of Trump.

2) Dems don't give him $5.7B, because he won't move on DACA. So, Pelosi just sends bill after bill to Mitch, which eventually will get 60 votes because the GOP Senators up for re-election can read the polls. (Also, the Senate GOP plan to end Trump's shutdown got 1 Dem vote; Schumer's plan to end Trump's shutdown got 8 GOP votes.) So then Trump would have to veto a bi-partisan budget bill.

*the SOTU, even if in July or August, will be 60 minutes of Doofus insulting Pelosi, Schumer, Mitch, and John Roberts - while telling Gorsuch and Kavenbro that they must rule in his favor regarding Mueller because they owe their jobs to him.

Option #2 seems most likely... the 3-week CR passed also established a conference committee (made up of 4 Rs, 3Ds) to hash out a plan. And none of the 4 Rs assigned to it are hardliners on The Wall.

And I really doubt that there are many Senators of either party that have the stomach for another government shutdown.

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The base would revolt if DACA was given permanent status even if Trump got money for The Wall.  It's never going to happen.

Dems will counter with billions for border security with some earmarked for barriers in strategic areas.  Trump will reject because they only acceptable offer is complete funding for The Wall.  The government will shut down again for a couple of weeks, after which Trump will declare a national emergency.

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No way another shutdown happens.

Trump will declare state of emergency, which will be immediately challenged, and go to a court.   (That will take a while.  But will not be ruled in Trump’s favor.)

Result: no funding for wall, but Trump has his “out” for his fans and sycophants, in that he “tried and fought for them, but the bad bad Democrats hate him and you and want you to be kidnapped and taped and pumped with drugs”.... yada. Yada. Yada. 

 

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2 minutes ago, smr-nj said:

No way another shutdown happens.

Trump will declare state of emergency, which will be immediately challenged, and go to a court.   (That will take a while.  But will not be ruled in Trump’s favor.)

Result: no funding for wall, but Trump has his “out” for his fans and sycophants, in that he “tried and fought for them, but the bad bad Democrats hate him and you and want you to be kidnapped and taped and pumped with drugs”.... yada. Yada. Yada. 

 

Other than there not being another shutdown, I agree with you.  He'll also use The Wall again as a central campaign issue in 2020.

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2 minutes ago, smr-nj said:

No way another shutdown happens.

Trump will declare state of emergency, which will be immediately challenged, and go to a court.   (That will take a while.  But will not be ruled in Trump’s favor.)

Result: no funding for wall, but Trump has his “out” for his fans and sycophants, in that he “tried and fought for them, but the bad bad Democrats hate him and you and want you to be kidnapped and taped and pumped with drugs”.... yada. Yada. Yada. 

 

The question is does  Trump want to lose on a veto override or on a SCOTUS decision. I would think conventional wisdom would be that politically, losing in the courts is less costly than a complete break with the GOP Senate, but with Trump you can't really assume they will take the strategically soundest path.

It's also possible that the Congress could override an emergency declaration, but I can't see the Senate standing up to Trump over that as much as I could see them overriding a veto to keep the government open.

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Just now, Euphdude said:

Other than there not being another shutdown, I agree with you.  He'll also use The Wall again as a central campaign issue in 2020.

I feel certain that he won’t run in 2020. 

Will not risk losing.  

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5 minutes ago, smr-nj said:

I feel certain that he won’t run in 2020. 

Will not risk losing.  

Do you think he is attached to reality enough to realize that is the most likely outcome if the trajectory doesn't change, dramatically?

And I don't even mean that in the mental competence sense - more just the way the conservative echo chamber has closed around him, and the departure of almost all independent voices from his circle, does he have any balanced  view of the outside world?

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1 minute ago, Gehringer_2 said:

The question is does  Trump want to lose on a veto override or on a SCOTUS decision. I would think conventional wisdom would be that politically, losing in the courts is less costly than a complete break with the GOP Senate, but with Trump you can't really assume they will take the strategically soundest path.

It's also possible that the Congress could override an emergency declaration, but I can't see the Senate standing up to Trump over that as much as I could see them overriding a veto to keep the government open.

SCOTUS would vote 5-4 in favor of Trump, with Kav being the swing vote as a "thank you for nominating me" to Trump.

The Senate doesn't have the cajones to override a Trump national emergency, and it's questionable whether or not Mitch would bring it up for a vote as he doesn't want to tick off his constituency in his own election cycle.

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4 minutes ago, smr-nj said:

I feel certain that he won’t run in 2020. 

Will not risk losing.  

He's running.  If Howard Schultz decides to run as an independent, Trump has an excellent chance of winning.

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29 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

So now we have 2 choices:

1) Dems will give him $5.7B for his stupid wall, if they get permanent DACA relief. Doofus will eventually agree to this because he desperately wants a) SOTU* and b) the wall. So Senate GOP would be forced to choose between 2 losing sh|t sandwiches: amnesty or open defiance of Trump.

 2) Dems don't give him $5.7B, because he won't move on DACA. So, Pelosi just sends bill after bill to Mitch, which eventually will get 60 votes because the GOP Senators up for re-election can read the polls. (Also, the Senate GOP plan to end Trump's shutdown got 1 Dem vote; Schumer's plan to end Trump's shutdown got 8 GOP votes.) So then Trump would have to veto a bi-partisan budget bill.

I don't think the dems can do the first one.  They can argue the fact that it's been negotiated during normal gov't operations (vs a shutdown), but in the end, if they agree to this, while refusing to even negotiate it during the shutdown, I think that looks bad on them.

23 minutes ago, Euphdude said:

The base would revolt if DACA was given permanent status even if Trump got money for The Wall.  It's never going to happen.

Dems will counter with billions for border security with some earmarked for barriers in strategic areas.  Trump will reject because they only acceptable offer is complete funding for The Wall.  The government will shut down again for a couple of weeks, after which Trump will declare a national emergency.

They would, but what if they offer up a new name to the same program, TACA - Trump action on childhood arrivals.  

15 minutes ago, smr-nj said:

No way another shutdown happens.

Trump absolutely would be up for another shutdown. Especially if he thinks the people will attribute the second one on Pelosi.

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1 minute ago, Euphdude said:

He's running.  If Howard Schultz decides to run as an independent, Trump has an excellent chance of winning.

Sounds like Schultz is.  I went from thinking Trump has no shot, to a decent shot at winning in 2020.

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Just now, ewsieg said:

I don't think the dems can do this.  They can argue the fact that it's been negotiated during normal gov't operations (vs a shutdown), but in the end, if they agree to this, while refusing to even negotiate it during the shutdown, I think that looks bad on them.

They would, but what if they offer up a new name to the same program, TACA - Trump action on childhood arrivals.  

Trump absolutely would be up for another shutdown. Especially if he thinks the people will attribute the second one on Pelosi.

Within 48 hours of another shutdown, I guarantee you that just about every TSA and ATC worker would call in sick and the airports in this country would close down.   They are the ones that ended this shut down.  The airports in NY, NJ and Philly were the start of what would have been a nationwide airport shutdown.   

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2 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

They would, but what if they offer up a new name to the same program, TACA - Trump action on childhood arrivals.  

Trump Action on Childhood Arrivals, Because Every Latino needs Love....a.k.a. TACA BELL.

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2 minutes ago, Euphdude said:

SCOTUS would vote 5-4 in favor of Trump, with Kav being the swing vote as a "thank you for nominating me" to Trump.

The Senate doesn't have the cajones to override a Trump national emergency, and it's questionable whether or not Mitch would bring it up for a vote as he doesn't want to tick off his constituency in his own election cycle.

If I read a summary of the statute correctly, if the House passes a rejection of an emergency declaration, the Senate has 10 days to vote, they do not have the choice. I agree Senate probably would not reject the declaration , but as I understand it, they would have to vote. I suppose the court can do anything it wants, but the precedent of rejecting Truman's move in the middle of real world wide shooting war is an awfully big one to waive away. Thomas and Alito are wacko enough, but I have trouble seeing Roberts, Gorsuch, and Kavanaugh all going for that kind of executive power. Kavanaugh is a conservative but remember he cut his teeth prosecuting executive power abuse.

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4 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

Sounds like Schultz is.  I went from thinking Trump has no shot, to a decent shot at winning in 2020.

Yup.  Trump would just need to appeal to his base, and everyone else would split between Schultz and the Dem nominee.  It would be a MAGA dream come true.

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5 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

 

Trump absolutely would be up for another shutdown. Especially if he thinks the people will attribute the second one on Pelosi.

If he shuts it..... it’s his.  

Just like the first one.

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5 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

Within 48 hours of another shutdown, I guarantee you that just about every TSA and ATC worker would call in sick and the airports in this country would close down.   They are the ones that ended this shut down.  The airports in NY, NJ and Philly were the start of what would have been a nationwide airport shutdown.   

Yeah - another shutdown isn't going to fly.  (and the pun works!)

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