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Directions and Objectives For A Future Mainstream Party

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1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

The UK Election should also be a cautionary tale for going base-only as well.

Even unpopular candidates can win when the alternative is not palatable to those in the middle.

I also think that for the chattering classes outside England it still doesn't compute that for good or ill, John Bull would just rather not have his future tied so close to the continent. But it is what it is. You can posit what you want about the average Brit not having understood what they were voting for in Brexit at the time of the referendum, but you can hardly make that argument now.

With Brexit appearing to be a really done deal now, what comes to the forefront will be Scotland's independence and the dissolution of Ulster...

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1 hour ago, Gehringer_2 said:

Early report is a romp for the Tories.

Precisely. Labour is getting stomped because they were blatantly and aggressively antisemitic.

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btw, this is the best thing to happen to the labour party.  you get to move jeremy corbyn back to the backbenches with the 70 year old hippies where he belongs.  you get to blame the tories for the economic disruption that will come from brexit.  and now you can move the party back to the center left (as opposed to the far left) where it has an actual chance to win.

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16 minutes ago, Buddha said:

beware democrats.  if you nominate warren or sanders you will be routed.

There are differences of course... but yeah. It's  a huge mistake to believe that turning out your base alone is enough. Gotta appeal to a broader swath of the electorate, and Labour clearly didnt.

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31 minutes ago, Buddha said:

btw, this is the best thing to happen to the labour party.  you get to move jeremy corbyn back to the backbenches with the 70 year old hippies where he belongs.  you get to blame the tories for the economic disruption that will come from brexit.  and now you can move the party back to the center left (as opposed to the far left) where it has an actual chance to win.

branding...totally

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41 minutes ago, Buddha said:

btw, this is the best thing to happen to the labour party.  you get to move jeremy corbyn back to the backbenches with the 70 year old hippies where he belongs.  you get to blame the tories for the economic disruption that will come from brexit.  and now you can move the party back to the center left (as opposed to the far left) where it has an actual chance to win.

The doomsayers are probably wrong about the economic effects - they won't be that big, most of every nation's economy is domestic. If there is a serious world turn down obviously Brexit will make it worse in England but at this point just the end of the uncertainty will give Brit business a boost as uncertainty almost always slows down investment and it's been 3 yrs of uncertainty.

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1 hour ago, Buddha said:

beware democrats.  if you nominate warren or sanders you will be routed.

So, the only chance is senile Joe Biden? 

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7 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

So, the only chance is senile Joe Biden? 

kloubachar is the best candidate left.  buttigieg could win.  biden will win.

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1 hour ago, Gehringer_2 said:

The doomsayers are probably wrong about the economic effects - they won't be that big, most of every nation's economy is domestic. If there is a serious world turn down obviously Brexit will make it worse in England but at this point just the end of the uncertainty will give Brit business a boost as uncertainty almost always slows down investment and it's been 3 yrs of uncertainty.

true about the doomsayers, but there will be some disruption and some will lose out.  they will lose some corporate jobs for sure as companies move to the continent.  

am effective labour party could take advantage of that.  hopefully they move back to the center to do so and corbyn disappears and takes his hamas loving, anti-american friends with him.  although i doubt it.

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weird to watch the tories clean up in the north of england and the midlands while labour wins london.

talk about a realignment.

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7 minutes ago, Buddha said:

kloubachar is the best candidate left.  buttigieg could win.  biden will win.

Biden/Klobuchar with a Biden vow signed in his own blood not to run for re-election would be an easy win.

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Just now, Gehringer_2 said:

Biden/Klobuchar with a Biden vow signed in his own blood not to run for re-election would be an easy win.

i thought that the democratic candidate definitely needed a black vice president but im not sure biden needs it.  black people love joe biden.

 

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Just now, Buddha said:

kloubachar is the best candidate left.  buttigieg could win.  biden will win.

Klobuchar is getting near zero support in polls.  Warren or Sanders could get the nomination if one of them drops out, but they won't  I think Warren would move closer to the center if she got the nomination.  You are right that Biden will probably win.  I just hope he doesn't drive away the younger crowd that got energized for the first time 2018.  

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47 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

Klobuchar is getting near zero support in polls.  Warren or Sanders could get the nomination if one of them drops out, but they won't  I think Warren would move closer to the center if she got the nomination.  You are right that Biden will probably win.  I just hope he doesn't drive away the younger crowd that got energized for the first time 2018.  

Warren has done a  poor job of dealing with the blowback from early success.. Her campaign, which was clearly well planned at the start, has not been able to adapt it's plans and adjust to the opposition she has run into. She's pretty much spinning her wheels now. She clearly did not do enough homework on the previous histories of wealth taxes or on her scoring estimates. It looks bad that a Harvard economist can't score a plan in better agreement with the agency scorers or that least engender more support from other progressives. Not unusual for even successful campaigns to hit dry spells, but her's needs some remedial work right now.

Ironically, I think Warren has allowed herself to be painted as more left wing on economics than she is. She wants a  more regulated  of capitalism bent more to the service of the common good, but she still wants to get there via a traditional market and capital system. I think it is mostly her M4A stance that signals her as being hard left economically, but you can be a capitalist and see that medical care is too flawed a market to ever function well as a market. Her problem, shared by many M4A supporters is that she doesn't do a good enough job stressing to independents that M4A is needed not because of a philosophy that government *should* provide it, but in a context of explaining how health care is a sector which by it's nature is one where the market will always fail the public good, and thus the government must be willing to provide it.  The problem of course is that progressives do want to sell the *should* over the *must* - and that is where you will lose independents.

Or in short - I think you get to independents more on M4A/healthcare rerform in general, by talking about fairness than rights.

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36 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

Klobuchar is getting near zero support in polls.  Warren or Sanders could get the nomination if one of them drops out, but they won't  I think Warren would move closer to the center if she got the nomination.  You are right that Biden will probably win.  I just hope he doesn't drive away the younger crowd that got energized for the first time 2018.  

i dont think kloubachar will win, she is the candidate i like the best.  she's up to 10% in iowa.

sanders and warren dont really take from the same voters.  bernie appeals more to younger white dudes (bernie bros), latinos, and working class whites.  warren appeals only to college educated whites.  warren's main opposition is buttigieg.  they both only resonate with college educated whites.

biden does ok with college educated voters, does extremely well with black voters  does very well with working class whites and older voters.

if warren dropped out, most of her votes would go to buttigieg, not sanders.  if sanders dropped out, id think his voters would be split between biden, buttigieg and warren.

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i think this british election was more about jeremy corbyn than anything else.  he's quite a detestable figure.

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4 hours ago, Buddha said:

i think this british election was more about jeremy corbyn than anything else.  he's quite a detestable figure.

Concur

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7 hours ago, Buddha said:

i dont think kloubachar will win, she is the candidate i like the best.  she's up to 10% in iowa.

sanders and warren dont really take from the same voters.  bernie appeals more to younger white dudes (bernie bros), latinos, and working class whites.  warren appeals only to college educated whites.  warren's main opposition is buttigieg.  they both only resonate with college educated whites.

biden does ok with college educated voters, does extremely well with black voters  does very well with working class whites and older voters.

if warren dropped out, most of her votes would go to buttigieg, not sanders.  if sanders dropped out, id think his voters would be split between biden, buttigieg and warren.

I don't really like any of them or think that any of them are inspiring.  I just want someone to beat the awful man.  

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9 hours ago, Buddha said:

kloubachar is the best candidate left.  buttigieg could win.  biden will win.

Buttigieg has one of the worst reputations with black voters. A low black voter turnout would be disastrous for the Democratic party.

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11 hours ago, Buddha said:

beware democrats.  if you nominate warren or sanders you will be routed.

Beware POC & minorities, angry white people are supporting outright racism and xenophobia with no shame. 

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11 hours ago, Buddha said:

beware democrats.  if you nominate warren or sanders you will be routed.

We heard this in 2016 and Democrats still lost. Kinda over this "we need a moderate fiscally conservative Dem!" argument.

Corbyn was a leaver at heart and listened to the Blairites in his party. Maybe Dems shouldn't turn impeachment into their own Brexit drama debacle and actually present a clear economic alternative to Trump. If not, they'll be routed no matter who gets nominated.

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13 minutes ago, 313DetroitCity said:

Buttigieg has one of the worst reputations with black voters. A low black voter turnout would be disastrous for the Democratic party.

i think he's unknown to black voters.  biden is known because of his relationship with obama.

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5 minutes ago, FloridaTigers said:

We heard this in 2016 and Democrats still lost. Kinda over this "we need a moderate fiscally conservative Dem!" argument.

Corbyn was a leaver at heart and listened to the Blairites in his party. Maybe Dems shouldn't turn impeachment into their own Brexit drama debacle and actually present a clear economic alternative to Trump. If not, they'll be routed no matter who gets nominated.

they won by 3 million votes with the most unpopular democratic candidate of all time and lost on an electoral college fluke.

i think it would be difficult for sanders and warren to win with a solid economy, but they could.  trump would still be the favorite against either of them, imo.

after sleeping on the british election results, i think its hard to draw a direct parallel because corbyn was perceived so negatively.  without him in the race you probably have a much closer election.

can you draw a parallel with sanders?  im not sure.  both come from the same anti-american, anti-israel, anti-imperialism school.  but corbyn seems dumber than sanders politically.  where bernie has cozied up to dictators as long as they hated america and proposed to love socialism, corbyn just couldnt say he didnt love hamas or hezbollah or iran.

i think it will pretty hard for republicans to accuse jewish bernie sanders of being anti-semitic.  but it will be easy to say "he's going to raise your taxes and turn your doctors office into the dmv" which will be enough to defeat him.

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