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Tenacious D

2018-19 Off-season Thread

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1 hour ago, mike06181 said:

Except there wer already worries about his delivery and that it would cause injury issues down the road. I was in the camp of trading him when his value was at its peak. At best he would have been ahead of the teams rebuild if he stayed healthy. At worse.. well we got that didnt we?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.reddit.com/r/motorcitykitties/comments/6zkfth/an_interesting_perspective_about_michael_fulmers/

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It’s also worth mentioning that the tigers didn’t really make it to sell mode until right around when they traded JD. 

As bad as the 2017 team ended up being, it had a fair amount of talent at the start of the year, and had a decent chance of competing. They barely missed the playoffs in 2016.

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17 minutes ago, Shelton said:

It’s also worth mentioning that the tigers didn’t really make it to sell mode until right around when they traded JD. 

As bad as the 2017 team ended up being, it had a fair amount of talent at the start of the year, and had a decent chance of competing. They barely missed the playoffs in 2016.

I agree that the full rebuild did not truly begin until July 2017 when they traded JD on July 18 2017 and traded Alex Avila & Justin Wilson on July 31st ..and then traded JUp and JV on August 31st.  That was it.  So basically the team is into its 2nd full year of full rebuild.  I think they will be looking good by the 4th year.

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Trading a young starting pitcher for fear of injury is exactly what the Diamondbacks did with Scherzer.  Spoiler alert: Scherzer never got a serious injury due to pitching mechanics.  

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48 minutes ago, bobrob2004 said:

Trading a young starting pitcher for fear of injury is exactly what the Diamondbacks did with Scherzer.  Spoiler alert: Scherzer never got a serious injury due to pitching mechanics.  

Operating a business based on fears is a recipe for failure.

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16 hours ago, Keepleyland2 said:

Again, you guys are talking about like it was guaranteed he was going to get hurt and regress. At that time there was no sense in trading him,  there was no way to know that was peak value. If the next year he continued on the same path his value would have been through the roof.

And there is no way to say he would have been ahead of the team's rebuild. At that point we believed we had a young ace. Still had Verlander and Miggy was just at the start of his injury problems and Mr. I was alive. We knew we would trade JD because he was a free agent. But, there's nothing to say that with Fulmer, JV, Miggy that it would be a complete tear down rebuild. 

You guys are looking at this too much in hindsight. 

At the time it made no sense to trade one of the best, young big leaguers for a lottery ticket that we hoped would become one of the best, young big leaguers.

My concern has been less about his likelihood of injury and more about his strikeout performance.  Since at least 1930 or so, the stat that has correlated most with long-term and top-shelf success for a starting pitcher is a good strikeout rate.  Very few starters have had long-term success with a strikeout rate much if at all below league average, and most of the best starters have had a rate well above league average.  Fulmer's rate was about average in his rookie season and has been well below it since.  It has never been high enough, even in the minors, to justify confidence that he would really be an elite starting pitcher.

I think that many of us -- including me, to some extent -- talked ourselves into believing that he was going to be great, because the Tigers had so little else for us to optimistic about in the near future.  But I should have known better.

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15 hours ago, LooseGoose said:

Operating a business based on fears is a recipe for failure.

So is not being cautious. 

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2 hours ago, six-hopper said:

My concern has been less about his likelihood of injury and more about his strikeout performance.  Since at least 1930 or so, the stat that has correlated most with long-term and top-shelf success for a starting pitcher is a good strikeout rate. 

But again, it's not a good assumption that a rookie's K rate is his career average. Verlander pitched 3 full seasons before his K rate reached 1/IP. At the end of Fulmer's rookie year the more natural assumption would be that his K rate would rise as his experience increased. JV's K rate for his first full season was 6.0. Fulmer's was 7.5. That is not a K rate that I would find worrisome in a rookie.

To me, the main reservation with Fulmer was that I would have preferred a guy who throws 97 to use the 4 seam fastball more effectively than Fulmer did/does (which would also increase Ks) , but that is the kind of thing coaching is for.

 

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27 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

But again, it's not a good assumption that a rookie's K rate is his career average. Verlander pitched 3 full seasons before his K rate reached 1/IP. At the end of Fulmer's rookie year the more natural assumption would be that his K rate would rise as his experience increased. JV's K rate for his first full season was 6.0. Fulmer's was 7.5. That is not a K rate that I would find worrisome in a rookie.

To me, the main reservation with Fulmer was that I would have preferred a guy who throws 97 to use the 4 seam fastball more effectively than Fulmer did/does (which would also increase Ks) , but that is the kind of thing coaching is for.

 

Verlander also had a K/9 of 10.3 in the minor leagues in 2005, so the fact that he developed a high strikeout rate later on was no surprise.  The lack of strikeouts was likely a due to a lack of experience, as he only had 1 year in the minors.  In 2008, Verlander had a mediocre 7.3 K/9 and his ERA suffered for it.  

In Fulmer's case, his first full year in the minors was in 2012 with an 8.4 K/9.  2013 he had a 8.2 K/9.  2014 he had a 7.9 K/9.  In 2015, he finally reached a strikeout an inning.  Fulmer's peak strikeout rate might be around 8 - 8.5 K/9, but with the injury who knows if he is going to reach that.  When his K/9 was in the 7s, his ERA suffered, just like with Verlander.   

Both Verlander and Fulmer had a good rookie season with average to below average strikeout rates.  This is likely due to not being too well known around the league with lack of scouting reports, so they were able to get away with certain pitches.  Neither one of them were going to continue to have success with those strikeout rates.  

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19 hours ago, LooseGoose said:

Operating a business based on fears is a recipe for failure.

What if you are in the horror movie business?

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58 minutes ago, Casimir said:

What if you are in the horror movie business?

Then you need terror, not mere fear.

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I have a question. Has Faedo dropped off the radar? I don’t recall him pitching a single inning for the Tigers this spring. I lnow he’s a ways out yet but with the Togers looking at everybody, where has he been? I know there was a velocity issue but what is up with his status now?

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12 minutes ago, 1776 said:

I have a question. Has Faedo dropped off the radar? I don’t recall him pitching a single inning for the Tigers this spring. I lnow he’s a ways out yet but with the Togers looking at everybody, where has he been? I know there was a velocity issue but what is up with his status now?

supposedly he was throwing harder this Spring, but he's been working strictly the back fields and none of our intrepid beat reporters are apparently bothering to go the back fields this spring. We used to get some 1st person reporting from a Florida contingent of forum members, but they have faded away, or as in Huey's case, passed on to the great spring training in the sky.

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8 minutes ago, 1776 said:

I have a question. Has Faedo dropped off the radar? I don’t recall him pitching a single inning for the Tigers this spring. I lnow he’s a ways out yet but with the Togers looking at everybody, where has he been? I know there was a velocity issue but what is up with his status now?

Was Faedo even in Spring camp?  He's not currently on the 40-man roster.  

Last I heard, Faedo is scheduled to start the year in AA.  Last year, Faedo was ranked #50 in Baseball America's top 100 prospects.  This year, he wasn't ranked. 

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Guys, thanks for the feedback. I do miss Huey’s insights and observations. He truly was a good soul.

AA sounds about right for Mr. Faedo to begin 2019. Still a bit surprised he didn’t get a look with the Tigers if for no other reason than to say, you’re in our plans. Need all recent top tier draft picks to click. 

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On 3/23/2019 at 6:37 PM, LooseGoose said:

Operating a business based on fears is a recipe for failure.

so is not selling overvalued assets when you can.

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2 hours ago, 1776 said:

Guys, thanks for the feedback. I do miss Huey’s insights and observations. He truly was a good soul.

AA sounds about right for Mr. Faedo to begin 2019. Still a bit surprised he didn’t get a look with the Tigers if for no other reason than to say, you’re in our plans. Need all recent top tier draft picks to click. 

I think it was even more surprising/odd that Burrows wasn’t in camp—he really should be knocking on the door.

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20 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

But again, it's not a good assumption that a rookie's K rate is his career average. Verlander pitched 3 full seasons before his K rate reached 1/IP. At the end of Fulmer's rookie year the more natural assumption would be that his K rate would rise as his experience increased. JV's K rate for his first full season was 6.0. Fulmer's was 7.5. That is not a K rate that I would find worrisome in a rookie.

To me, the main reservation with Fulmer was that I would have preferred a guy who throws 97 to use the 4 seam fastball more effectively than Fulmer did/does (which would also increase Ks) , but that is the kind of thing coaching is for.

 

Well, when Verlander came up there weren't as many strikeouts as there are now, so obviously the average strikeout rate was lower, so his numbers in his early years were better in relation to the standard at the time than in relation to the current climate.  Fulmer's rookie rate wasn't necessarily worrisome, but it also wasn't very impressive.  Given how hard he was throwing, I was surprised that he wasn't racking up more Ks, but the reality is that he has never really been a strikeout artist.  Even in the minors, his strikeout numbers were not bad but also not great, and were somewhat lower than I would expect for a guy throwing in that 97-98 territory.

I tend to think that if he stayed healthy, he had a decent chance to be a good pitcher but was not likely to be a great one (great meaning regularly being, say, one of the top 10 or 12 starters in the league). Now, who knows what he'll be?   I wish him good luck, for his sake and ours.  But, unfortunately, wishing won't make it so.

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9 hours ago, six-hopper said:

 Given how hard he was throwing, I was surprised that he wasn't racking up more Ks, but the reality is that he has never really been a strikeout artist.

This where we come closest to agreement. To me the mismatch was that he had (has?) a power arm but was a sinker pitcher coming up in a period when the league was moving back to valuing the high 4 seamer. Fulmer's 4 seamer lacks sufficient spin to be what could be his best pitch given his velo. In the past the Tigers hadve not admitted any to inclination to work with him to change that. Now they are hot into pitch physics but Fulmer's not going to learn anything new this year except how to entertain himself away from the mound.

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Buy high and sell low, that way the casual fan will support the deal and come out to the ballpark 

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It also could be as simple as other GMs didn't value Fulmer enough to offer enough to get the Tigers to bite.

I mean, if we knew his K rates were low, GMs knew it as well.

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7 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

It also could be as simple as other GMs didn't value Fulmer enough to offer enough to get the Tigers to bite.

I mean, if we knew his K rates were low, GMs knew it as well.

Other GMs read this site?  Kewl.

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One more painfully boring ST game before the season starts. 

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2 hours ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

It also could be as simple as other GMs didn't value Fulmer enough to offer enough to get the Tigers to bite.

I mean, if we knew his K rates were low, GMs knew it as well.

People do tend to forget we got him for a rental.

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I think people also tend to forget that he wasn't viewed as a top level prospect.  I think most reports had him as a likely mid rotation guy,  it's not like he was a Verlander, Mize or even Norris level prospect that was viewed as a potential Ace or high end number 2.   

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