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jb84

Dallas Pre-Game Discussion

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I doubt being up for a game means that much.

You can't make the league unless you are a very competitive individual, and once the game is on, guys on both teams are trying hard to win.

I think if things go badly or well inside of a game, emotions can help swing performance, but that has nothing to do with last week's performance.

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Minnesota being absolutely murdered by Buffalo (as well as Detroit dominating the Patriots) should tell us collectively that we are not good at predicting performance early in the season, and part of that is owing to the fact that teams in the NFL are not as far apart as we perceive.  Essentially small swings in performance from a few key players can have a big impact because the differences in team wide talent are small.

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25 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Minnesota being absolutely murdered by Buffalo (as well as Detroit dominating the Patriots) should tell us collectively that we are not good at predicting performance early in the season, and part of that is owing to the fact that teams in the NFL are not as far apart as we perceive.  Essentially small swings in performance from a few key players can have a big impact because the differences in team wide talent are small.

Plus there are limited trials in a single game so there is a high variance in the outcome of the trials.

I think there are still substantial talent gaps between one end of the bell curve and the middle. I just don’t think games are long enough for the result to be a fair representation of the gap in talent. 

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Maybe I ought to have written that the difference in team wide talent is small relative to the generic random variation inside of a game, and that is not even accounting for performance variation of the players themselves.

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1 hour ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Minnesota being absolutely murdered by Buffalo (as well as Detroit dominating the Patriots) should tell us collectively that we are not good at predicting performance early in the season, and part of that is owing to the fact that teams in the NFL are not as far apart as we perceive.  Essentially small swings in performance from a few key players can have a big impact because the differences in team wide talent are small.

Also the fact that Minnesota was missing Everson Griffen, Dalvin Cook, and Marcus Sherels. 

PS: That Griffen situation is frightening. 

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I’m not saying that I expected Buffalo to win. 

On the other hand, losing three players arguably of Pro Bowl caliber is more than a small swing in performance from game to game. 

Also, it would not be a surprise if the way Griffen went out left the team unfocused. As I understand it, he was kicked out of practice on Saturday for acting erratically, then arrested Saturday night for threatening employees of the hotel at which he apparently lives. Yeah, his teammates are professionals, but they are also people; this situation seems more than a little distressing.

There is more going on in Minnesota than the normal week-to-week variation in play. 

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The NFL is just so random that it is hard to predict with any sorta accuracy week to week.  For starters most games are decided by a score or less or at the most 2 scores.   That's just a couple flukey plays on either side that can change the outcome of the game.  For another you just have so many players on the field at the same time that all it makes it more likely that somebody may screw up.  I mean all it takes is for one player out of those 11 on any given play to miss a tackle or blow an assignment and you can go from a modest 3-4 yard game to an 80 yard TD.   That leaves you alot of opportunities for a flukey play to happen to change the outcome of any given game.

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3 hours ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

I believe that is because much of conventional wisdom consist of narratives that attempt to explain the things we most recently saw.

yes - also a good point. It's just human nature to demand a 'narrative' when all that may have happened is natural randomness. This is a much more serious issue in life away from sports where we often embrace seriously counterproductive belief constructs in order to impose meaning on meaningless events that befall us.

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9 hours ago, John_Brian_K said:

This is not even really a joke, but whatever I think they WILL do...the opposite will most likely happen.

I thought they should have won the first game...easily...they lost badly.  After that first game I thought they would get blown out in San Fran and they actually made it a respectable game.  I would have bet money they would have lost to NE...maybe make it close or get blown out, but they basically blew NE out.

I think this is a game they lose....so they will most likely win.  Honest to god...if I HAD to bet money on this game right now...I would put it on the Lions...my rational mind would be screaming at me for doing it, but that is what the franchise has done to me.

I hear you, bro. This franchise Has been a challenge to love for years. But, we still love our Honolulu Blue!

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ragnow has a knee injury.  were just not allowed to have nice things.

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14 hours ago, Buddha said:

ragnow has a knee injury.  were just not allowed to have nice things.

The luck of the Lions defies logic!

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Ragnow returned to practice so I think he's fine.  Ansah probably re- injured himself filling out paperwork.

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On 9/26/2018 at 12:11 PM, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Maybe I ought to have written that the difference in team wide talent is small relative to the generic random variation inside of a game, and that is not even accounting for performance variation of the players themselves.

And the officials.  One call either way can effect the final outcome of any game 

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Ansah is a guy who didn't even start playing football until he was in college. I sometimes wonder how injured he really is? Most players have played football since peewee and is a passion for them. I wonder if Ansah has that same passion? Is he willing to play through as much pain as others?

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I wonder about Ansah's age as well.  I know he's always been fragile but he seems even more injury prone the past few years.  Maybe he's really 32 and not 29 and started getting more injuries once he got to the wrong side of 30 like so many athletes do?

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I ranted in here numerous times about how franchising Ansah was plain out Stupid. It really makes me question Quinn, it is a huge sum of money for someone who is never on the field. The lions could have used the cap space and signed Tate to an extension, or sign another DE. The cap space would have carried over to next year had they not used it this year. 

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3 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

Ansah is a guy who didn't even start playing football until he was in college. I sometimes wonder how injured he really is? Most players have played football since peewee and is a passion for them. 

Passion, or just early onset CTE? 🤔

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4 minutes ago, MAROTH4MVP said:

I ranted in here numerous times about how franchising Ansah was plain out Stupid. It really makes me question Quinn, it is a huge sum of money for someone who is never on the field. The lions could have used the cap space and signed Tate to an extension, or sign another DE. The cap space would have carried over to next year had they not used it this year. 

Ansah was the best DE available and how does this prevent them from extending Tate? Honestly I don't think they should extend Tate. 

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58 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Ansah was the best DE available and how does this prevent them from extending Tate? Honestly I don't think they should extend Tate. 

Yup. At the time, everybody was pretty excited about this pick. But,it has not worked out. like many Lions picks

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