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cruzer1

2019 Draft Pick Watch

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I believe Avila is on the right track . I like the last couple of drafts and the minor league system has improved dramatically. The Pelfrey and Lowe thing though....that kinda makes me second guess the guy. What the **** was that anyway?

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On 9/5/2018 at 10:10 AM, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

I do not buy the idea that a team has to first get to 0.500 before it competes for a play-off spot.

I didn't write that as a requirement that they must get to .500 before competing for the playoffs... That's just a feeling that I have. 

I think they will become competitive pretty quick, not on the 5 year-plan a few others are touting. 

They have so many young kids coming up, mostly within the same time frame of within 2 years, that I think they'll improve swiftly. But I don't think they go straight to the playoffs. A fast improvement in 2020 will mean they need to make the right decisions in off-season 2020 to get them to a playoff level. And I don't think that will be on the pitching side... I think they'll need a big bat or two. But that's just spit-balling... 

It's why I think they're hitting 80-ish wins that year. Rapid improvement from All the Young Dudes. But not enough to be a playoff team without another move or two. 

But again... I'm just sort of spit-balling this...

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Two years ago Oakland was a last place team in a small market with a middle of the pack at best farm system.  Now they are going to win 95 games and likely make the playoffs.    

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Exactly.  This gets back to the point that the difference between a 95 and a 65 - 70 win team is not as great as we often assume.

 It is It can be achieved with the right 6 or 7 players paired with some players taking a step forward.

Whether or not that will happen or is likely to happen is a different story.

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6 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

Two years ago Oakland was a last place team in a small market with a middle of the pack at best farm system.  Now they are going to win 95 games and likely make the playoffs.    

The Oakland A's are an interesting organization ..how over the past 20 years or so ago .. every 3 to 4 years they regularly seem to go from a 95 win team to a 75 win team to a 95 win team to a 75 win team...

There are almost always teams that within a 1 to 3 years span will go from bad to good ..but that also works vice versa. 

Indeed, as you pointed out, two years ago Oakland lost 93 games and now will win 93+.  Likewise, two years ago the Braves lost 93 games and this year may win 90.  But on the other hand,  two years ago the Texas Rangers were a 95 win team, Baltimore Orioles were an 89 win team, and the Tigers an 86 win team.  This year the Rangers will lose 90+, the Orioles could lose 115+, and the Tigers will lose 90+.

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

This gets back to the point that the difference between a 95 and a 65 - 70 win team is not as great as we often assume.

 It is It can be achieved with the right 6 or 7 players paired with some players taking a step forward.

Whether or not that will happen or is likely to happen is a different story.

Exactly.  Everybody understands this.  The objective camp also understands that the  'right 6 or 7 players' is a mighty challenge that is difficult to achieve.

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There is a solid nucleus of players that could be part of a good team.  Not to say they all will be, a team could win with the following:

Cabrera

Fulmer

Boyd

Castellanos

Jiminez

Greene (not as a closer)

Norris (if he stay healthy)

Maybe even McCann as a backup catcher and perhaps one of Farmer/VerHagen as potential 6th/7th inning.

However, to be really good, the players that supplement this group need to be pretty good.  It’s not as dire as it was in 2003, so I would expect a turnaround to happen within a few years.  Our success, though, will come down to our ability to rebuild better than the Royals, White Sox and Twins and our willingness to write a check to fill in spots, which is why I advocate going after Manny Machado now.  There isn’t a single player in our minor leagues whose ceiling would come even close to him.

 

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16 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

There is a solid nucleus of players that could be part of a good team.  Not to say they all will be, a team could win with the following:

Cabrera

Fulmer

Boyd

Castellanos

Jiminez

Greene (not as a closer)

Norris (if he stay healthy)

Maybe even McCann as a backup catcher and perhaps one of Farmer/VerHagen as potential 6th/7th inning.

However, to be really good, the players that supplement this group need to be pretty good.  It’s not as dire as it was in 2003, so I would expect a turnaround to happen within a few years.  Our success, though, will come down to our ability to rebuild better than the Royals, White Sox and Twins and our willingness to write a check to fill in spots, which is why I advocate going after Manny Machado now.  There isn’t a single player in our minor leagues whose ceiling would come even close to him. 

 

I think the probabilities on Reyes are rising rapidly as well. This is a guy everyone said wasn't ready to play this season, and yet with moderate playing time he has pulled his BA up to the 270 range over his last 170 PA plus playing a  good CF and being a great asset on the bases. The ball he scored on from 1st last night would not have scored more than a handful of other players in the majors.

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I'll not put a lot of positive spin on Miggy ever being 'Miggy' again.  It would be nice, ..but hate to be even more disappointed than have been the past 3 or 4 years.

Greene can be very good ..and then not-so-good.  But that can be true of a lot of good relievers.

McCann .. want him gone.

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Just now, Tigrrfan said:

Greene can be very good ..and then not-so-good.  But that can be true of a lot of good relievers.

Greene is a little like Norris in the sense that he has really really good stuff, but hasn't pitched like it, but for a very different reason than Norris. Daniel can't stay healthy, whereas Geene's problem is that he just does not throw enough strikes - he is behind the count too much of the time - esp for a late inning guy. If you assume his command will increase with more work, you might think Greene could yet be dominant, but who really knows if it will happen.

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46 minutes ago, cruzer1 said:

Stewart is now a Tiger.  Praise Jesus.

Phase One begins.

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Right now it is looking like the 6th spot is the lowest we're gonna go.  We're currently 3 games "up" on the 7th team Cincy in the win column so we would have to get pretty hot to drop below them. 

On the flip side the White Sox are free falling and are 3 games ahead of us for the 3rd spot so it's going to take some effort on our part to catch them.    My gut feeling is that SDP wins some more since they called up some of their prospects so I'm looking for them to pass us, so my guess is that we finish either 4th or 5th.   

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The White Sox and Padres both won yesterday so we are now tied with SDP in the win column for the 5th spot and 2 games back of both Miami and CWS for the 4th and 3rd spot respectively.  As a reminder we hold all tiebreakers(meaning we will get the better pick) because it goes by worst record the previous season.  

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Tigers currently have the #6 pick, but they are only 2 GB of the White Sox for the #3 pick.  The 3-6 spots are really wide open at this point.  

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1 hour ago, Tigrrfan said:

I am optimistic about Jake Rogers.  

It would be nice if he and Cameron worked out - Perez is looking shaky at this point.

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My guess is that Cameron is on a fast track to becoming a regular MLB outfielder ..currently expected to become the Tigers center fielder.  Could it be as early as sometime 2019 when he is promoted to that role full-time?

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21 minutes ago, Tigrrfan said:

My guess is that Cameron is on a fast track to becoming a regular MLB outfielder ..currently expected to become the Tigers center fielder.  Could it be as early as sometime 2019 when he is promoted to that role full-time?

I don't think so. I see him spending 2019 in Toledo, then moving up to Detroit in early 2020.

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5 minutes ago, cruzer1 said:

I don't think so. I see him spending 2019 in Toledo, then moving up to Detroit in early 2020.

You're probably right .. but to clarify .. I was thinking if Daz dazzles throughout 2019 MiLB ..maybe gets a month-long look at the MLB job after the September 2019 call ups.

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3 hours ago, cruzer1 said:

I don't think so. I see him spending 2019 in Toledo, then moving up to Detroit in early 2020.

No way to know I suppose. I think when a guy hits his 20s and starts to figure it out the way Daz has this year, he can move pretty fast, but until a guy faces MLB level pitching, it's all still guessing.

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