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Tenacious D

Can Motown Sports survive the rebuild?

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12 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

In the case of JV and JD they let them go because it didn't make fiscal sense to keep them.   

Which is exactly what some predicted when Mike left this world and Chris inherited the Tiger reins.

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32 minutes ago, Tigrrfan said:

Which is exactly what some predicted when Mike left this world and Chris inherited the Tiger reins.

So? There is virtually no one who didn't agree the Tigers were overextended in Ilitch's last years. They were at the luxury tax. That was unsustainable - even the Yankees stepped away from being over the limit. But there is a huge gulf between stepping back from xs to claiming the Chris Ilitch is going to be a cheapskate owner. He may yet, but I can't see anything that has happened so far is evidence of anything other than of a team that needed to rebuild. 

What they do with Nick may be a better indicator. If they end up selling cheap just avoid re-signing him, that would certainly be a worse sign.

 

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1 hour ago, six-hopper said:

If no one argues with me, what am I supposed to do all weekend?

Well I'm trying to irritate you so there's that.  😉

Riverfest in Mio isn't until next weekend so I'm out of ideas.

 

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7 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

So? There is virtually no one who didn't agree the Tigers were overextended in Ilitch's last years. They were at the luxury tax. That was unsustainable - even the Yankees stepped away from being over the limit. But there is a huge gulf between stepping back from xs to claiming the Chris Ilitch is going to be a cheapskate owner. He may yet, but I can't see anything that has happened so far is evidence of anything other than of a team that needed to rebuild. 

What they do with Nick may be a better indicator. If they end up selling cheap just avoid re-signing him, that would certainly be a worse sign.

 

What do you mean by "So?"

Its not just Chris Ilitch .. it is also Al Avila.

By 'dumping' salary during 2017, the 2018 Tigers are nearly $70m under the current Luxury Tax threshold.   

Is that going to make the Tigers significantly better in any of the next 3 to 5 years?  IMHO, that is likely doubtful ..as realistically speaking, a team deliberately 'tanking' is not necessarily the best method for 'rebuild' ..and does not guarantee significant success neither short-term nor long-term.    

Moreover, a huge payroll does not automatically equal "overextended".   Since 2012 ..the Tigers exceeded the Luxury Tax threshold only during 2016 ..in large part because of the additions of Zimmerman, Pelfrey, and Lowe, none of whom added any win-value to the team's success.

One could make a very good case that VMart and Zimmerman's contracts are a BIG reason the Tigers became "overextended"  ..if, in fact, they truly were "overextended."  Since 2015 for VMart and 2016 for Zimmerman ..these two players combined have cost the team $128m in salary, and netted a collective -0.3 WAR (bbref) ..and they still owe Zimmerman another $50m over the next 2 years.  Meanwhile, Tigers are paying $8 this year and $8m again next year for Justin Verlander NOT to play for them ( ..while Houston pays JV the other $20m per year.) 

As you likely know ..JD signed with the Red Sox for $22m avg/yr through 2022 (...albeit with a player opt-out available after 2019, 2020, and 2020.)  Could the Tigers have signed him for the same kind of contract and given the Tiger fans at least 2 years of MVP-type production without 'overextending' the team or harming the so-called ''rebuild''?  .. .. ... ... .. .. Could the Tigers have waited a year to trade a truly revitalized JV and perhaps received a much better return of prospects?

Unfortunately, the 'return' for trading away JD and JV netted only low to mid level prospects ..at best.  

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btw:  The Yankees deliberately crept below the Luxury Tax threshold for several reasons, including ..1) avoiding the 50% Luxury Tax penalty for exceeding the threshold for multiple consecutive seasons, ..2) resetting their 'multi-year' clock back to year one ..3) to pave the way to open their wallet for next year's elite Free Agent class,  AND last but not least ..4) because they already have a potential World Championship caliber team right now without having to needlessly spend a lot more money.

And overall, the Yankee farm system remains much better than the current Detroit Tiger's farm system even after they have already promoted true 2018 AL RoY candidates Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andújar to the parent club.

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1 hour ago, Tigrrfan said:

Unfortunately, the 'return' for trading away JD and JV netted only low to mid level prospects ..at best.  

Those that make a living scouting baseball players would disagree with you, but what do they know?

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1 hour ago, Tigrrfan said:

What do you mean by "So?"

Its not just Chris Ilitch .. it is also Al Avila.

By 'dumping' salary during 2017, the 2018 Tigers are nearly $70m under the current Luxury Tax threshold.   

Is that going to make the Tigers significantly better in any of the next 3 to 5 years?  IMHO, that is likely doubtful ..as realistically speaking, a team deliberately 'tanking' is not necessarily the best method for 'rebuild' ..and does not guarantee significant success neither short-term nor long-term.    

Moreover, a huge payroll does not automatically equal "overextended".   Since 2012 ..the Tigers exceeded the Luxury Tax threshold only during 2016 ..in large part because of the additions of Zimmerman, Pelfrey, and Lowe, none of whom added any win-value to the team's success.

One could make a very good case that VMart and Zimmerman's contracts are a BIG reason the Tigers became "overextended"  ..if, in fact, they truly were "overextended."  Since 2015 for VMart and 2016 for Zimmerman ..these two players combined have cost the team $128m in salary, and netted a collective -0.3 WAR (bbref) ..and they still owe Zimmerman another $50m over the next 2 years.  Meanwhile, Tigers are paying $8 this year and $8m again next year for Justin Verlander NOT to play for them ( ..while Houston pays JV the other $20m per year.) 

As you likely know ..JD signed with the Red Sox for $22m avg/yr through 2022 (...albeit with a player opt-out available after 2019, 2020, and 2020.)  Could the Tigers have signed him for the same kind of contract and given the Tiger fans at least 2 years of MVP-type production without 'overextending' the team or harming the so-called ''rebuild''?  .. .. ... ... .. .. Could the Tigers have waited a year to trade a truly revitalized JV and perhaps received a much better return of prospects?

Unfortunately, the 'return' for trading away JD and JV netted only low to mid level prospects ..at best.  

I'm not sure what the core of the argument is. It certainly is true that if the Tigers had not made a lot of bad decisions of all kinds trying too  hard to win that they might well not have ended up having to rebuild so drastically, but most of that still goes back to Mike, not Chris.

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54 minutes ago, LooseGoose said:

Those that make a living scouting baseball players would disagree with you, but what do they know?

Of the three guys -- er, persons -- that we got for J.D., the best-case scenario I see is maybe one of them making it as a utility infielder.  But hey, a possible future utility infielder doesn't come along every day, so I guess we won that trade big-time.

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30 minutes ago, six-hopper said:

Of the three guys -- er, persons -- that we got for J.D., the best-case scenario I see is maybe one of them making it as a utility infielder.  But hey, a possible future utility infielder doesn't come along every day, so I guess we won that trade big-time.

Even in this scenario, you're right that we did.

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I wanted them them to extended JD long before they traded him, so I will never like that trade.  

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12 minutes ago, LooseGoose said:

Those that make a living scouting baseball players would disagree with you, but what do they know?

None of the players received in return for JD and JV are in the top 100 MLB prospect list.

Most likely ..not one of the six will ever become a super star in the Big Leagues.  Might be a 'star' for a mediocre team ..ala Travis Fryman or Bobby Higginson.  

I think closest thing to 'super-star' in the entire Tiger organization is Casey Mize ..and everyone knows how risky a young current pitching prospect already with an  injury history can be.

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2 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

I'm not sure what the core of the argument is. 

Nor am I sure what the 'core of the argument is."  I offered the opinion that many predicted Chris would run the team like a 'business' with an eye on the fiscal bottom line ..instead of the 'bringing popular stars to the team approach' like his father did.  Mike wanted stars that would draw the most fans ..and he was willing to pay for them.  Moreover, Mike WAS a Tiger player ..albeit in the minor leagues.  His love for his team is beyond question ..and without a doubt ..Mike was a true Tiger fan.  At this point in time ..I cannot say the same about Chris.  Maybe Chris will surprise me.  One can only hope.

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10 hours ago, six-hopper said:

If no one argues with me, what am I supposed to do all weekend?

You could spackle the den.  

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2 minutes ago, Biff Mayhem said:

You could spackle the den.  

don't mention that. I have wall in the rec-room that needs a final coat of mud and sanding.

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Speaking of Chris Ilitch and Al Avila ..here is a quote (with link following it) ..that it was Chris Ilitch and Al Avila who decided to retain Brad Ausmus after 2015 despite Mike Ilitch's own personal desire to replace Brad prior to the 2016 season:

Quote

QUOTE:  "Although he was appointed president and CEO of Ilitch Holdings in 2004, Chris Ilitch had yielded to his father on all major decisions regarding the Detroit Tigers and Red Wings until early 2016. The one notable (partial) exception occurred when Brad Ausmus was retained as Tigers manager after a disappointing 2015 campaign. An infirmed Mike Ilitch wanted to replace Ausmus with Jim Leyland or Ron Gardenhire. Chris Ilitch and Team President Al Avila advocated for retaining Ausmus. The owner’s son was permitted to make the decision." :UNQUOTE

Link:  https://www.spiroavenue.com/single-post/2017/07/03/For-Sale-Soon-Chris-Ilitch-Looks-to-a-Future-Without-the-Detroit-Tigers

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I fully understand that the article 'linked' and 'quoted from' above is nothing more than the speculations of a writer attempting to put an interesting story out there that would perk the minds of readers .. but one simply cannot automatically discount some of the opinions expressed by the writer without first giving some serious thought to the future of the team under Chris and AA.

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17 minutes ago, Tigrrfan said:

I fully understand that the article 'linked' and 'quoted from' above is nothing more than the speculations of a writer attempting to put an interesting story out there that would perk the minds of readers .. but one simply cannot automatically discount some of the opinions expressed by the writer without first giving some serious thought to the future of the team under Chris and AA.

the article is now a year old. Maybe Mike and Chris never talked long term, but they have to have spent a lot of work to set up the team trust. if Chris didn't want to hold and run the team why did they bother? It could have been just to pacify Dad, but at minimum it's a counter argument.

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Point is .. the writer said that Mike wanted to fire Brad Ausmus and replace with either Leyland or Gardenhire prior to 2016 ..but Chris and Al disagreed and prevailed. 

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10 minutes ago, Tigrrfan said:

Point is .. the writer said that Mike wanted to fire Brad Ausmus and replace with either Leyland or Gardenhire prior to 2016 ..but Chris and Al disagreed and prevailed. 

If he wanted Leyland, that wasn't going to happen - if he had seriously wanted Gardenhire and they had to talk him out of that the narrative would be worse - at least to me as I ready to see Ausmus gone in yr 3. 

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The whole sports ownership system is probably due for a realignment. The article notes the trend to group management but that is probably just the tip of the iceberg. Team's have been appreciating at rates far in excess of their revenue generating potential - fed mostly by the capital appreciation of the teams - a classic bubble. But like any asset, prices can only increase in the absence of revenue return for so long before the value proposition forces itself back into consideration. No matter how long they seem to go on without correction, things that cannot go on forever will come to an end.

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1 minute ago, Gehringer_2 said:

If he wanted Leyland, that wasn't going to happen

Never say never .. because billionaire friendship, money, and influence cannot be discounted.

With that said, ..I doubt rehiring Jim Leyland would have been a positive move ..unless it might have prevented signing any or all of Zimmerman or Pelfrey or Lowe.  If Mike had gotten his way and fired Ausmus after 2015, ..they might have signed different players.

A Gardenhire hire after 2015 might have made more sense ..and could have also resulted in 'signing' different players. 

In my opinion, Brad was a terrible manager and a negative influence upon the 'team' ..and the sooner replaced by somebody like Gardenhire would have sooner started the rebuild in a positive manner.

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4 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

The whole sports ownership system is probably due for a realignment.

Either that .. or the system will simply stagnate for several years.  

 

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4 minutes ago, Charles Liston said:

Oh gosh, we could have had Gardy earlier?  Pass me the ceremonial dagger.

HaHa - If they had had any foresight they should have asked JL how long he intended to stick around each year and when he said 'One Year' going into 2013, given him a long vacation and hired Francona while he was still available.

But of course Tito was damaged good coming out of that Boston situation. Time seems to have proven it was more that particular batch of players than Francona.

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