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RandyMarsh

Michigan recruitment 2018/19

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Just now, ROMAD1 said:

jon cooper and bruce earle say hi

That's the OSU coaching outcome UM needs to compete with them once again.

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11 minutes ago, Euphdude said:

The adjusted and realistic expectations going forward should be 8-11 win seasons with annual beat-downs by OSU, winning every other year against MSU, PSU, and Wisconsin, and losing more bowl game than winning.

I don’t think that is a realistic expectation, but you are free to expect whatever, I guess. 

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Just now, Shelton said:

I don’t think that is a realistic expectation, but you are free to expect whatever, I guess. 

It's not the expectation I personally want, but I think the landscape of college football and UM's place in it makes it more likely than competing for national championships.

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29 minutes ago, Euphdude said:

The adjusted and realistic expectations going forward should be 8-11 win seasons with annual beat-downs by OSU, winning every other year against MSU, PSU, and Wisconsin, and losing more bowl game than winning.  It's not the best scenario, but it is infinitely better than what the Lions offer.

Consider that for over most of our lifetimes, OSU has really only had one great football coach, and that was Meyer. Woody, Bruce, Cooper, Tressell - which of them ever proved how good they were in the way Saban or Meyer did? Woody was this larger than life figure, but as a coach he was locked into the dark ages offensively even then. My point being that M's success against OSU will always be predicated on OSU not finding a top head coach, because any time they do - OSU is just much better placed to be a football power than UM is.

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8 minutes ago, Euphdude said:

It's not the expectation I personally want, but I think the landscape of college football and UM's place in it makes it more likely than competing for national championships.

I think there is a sizable gap between “8-11 wins and annual beat downs by OSU and losing to MSU half the time” and “competing for national championships.”

That is assuming your definition of competing for national championships is 13-0 or 12-1 every year and beating OSU and winning the big ten every year and making the playoff. 

I think a reasonable expectation is about 10-1 heading into the OSU game and winning that game 40% of the time.

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12 minutes ago, Shelton said:

I think there is a sizable gap between “8-11 wins and annual beat downs by OSU and losing to MSU half the time” and “competing for national championships.”

That is assuming your definition of competing for national championships is 13-0 or 12-1 every year and beating OSU and winning the big ten every year and making the playoff. 

I think a reasonable expectation is about 10-1 heading into the OSU game and winning that game 40% of the time.

8-11 wins will give UM the occasional B10 championship, which should be the ultimate goal of the program.  National championships would be a nice byproduct of a conference championship, but should not be a realistic expectation.

What you define as a reasonable expectation in terms of win total isn't realistic on an annual basis, but should be expected every other year or so.

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54 minutes ago, Euphdude said:

That's the OSU coaching outcome UM needs to compete with them once again.

I’ll take historical averages 

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2 minutes ago, Euphdude said:

8-11 wins will give UM the occasional B10 championship, which should be the ultimate goal of the program.  National championships would be a nice byproduct of a conference championship, but should not be a realistic expectation.

What you define as a reasonable expectation in terms of win total isn't realistic on an annual basis, but should be expected every other year or so.

Now we are just getting into a semantical argument. 

I think there is a difference between what is reasonable to expect, even if the realities of probability will certainly result in years that do not meet that expectation.

Michigan met that expectation this year and two years ago. They did not meet that expectation last year. They effectively met that in 2015, too (9-2 heading into OSU including the blocked punt loss).

 

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6 minutes ago, Shelton said:

Now we are just getting into a semantical argument. 

I think we agree more than our arguments suggest.  The main difference as I see it is how pleased we would be with various outcomes.

7 minutes ago, ROMAD1 said:

I’ll take historical averages 

I'm 99% certain OSU's new coach will not be as successful as Meyer.

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20 minutes ago, Euphdude said:

I'm 99% certain OSU's new coach will not be as successful as Meyer.

that is certainly a good bet.

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after 10 years in the wilderness, i'll take 10 win seasons every year.  

as noted, ohio state is better situated than michigan overall, but its not that big a difference.  the difference was urban meyer out them on another level.  we'll see if they can keep it up.  i expect a drop off, but probably not as big of one as you might expect.  ohio state still has a better recruiting backyard than michigan and it operates outside of rules which michigan imposes on itself (which isnt to say that ohio state "cheats" and michigan doesnt, but rather that ohio state looks upon cheating in a different manner and is better at it, imo).

michigan will beat ohio state one day.  like shelton said, the expectations moving forward are probably 10 win seasons with a 40% chance to beat osu.  i would give it a 50% chance to beat them in ann arbor and maybe a 20% chance in cbus.

three games decide their season next year:

at penn state

notre dame

ohio state

they get two of those at home.  i like their chances at 10-2 or 11-1.

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41 minutes ago, Buddha said:

after 10 years in the wilderness, i'll take 10 win seasons every year.  

Yup - there is only team per year whose fans are not somewhat frustrated, and they will likely be frustrated the next year. If you can't at least somewhat enjoy being a fan of a 10 win college team you maybe should try meditation - or something.....😔

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The only way this team is winning only 8 games going forward is if there is an exceptional confluence or negative factors and luck. Like having to rely on second and third string QBs for almost an entire season coupled with a remarkably poor offensive line. 

If that happens you might lose a game by 4 where your QB throws five picks and then lose three more to top 10 teams (and then you may lose the bowl game, too). But you will still come close to beating OSU somehow. 

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5 hours ago, ROMAD1 said:

Zach Charbonnet would be my next desired get for NLI

Good to see he's in. 

This is a dang good class. 

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Sigh. I always say I’m not going to care about this dumb recruiting stuff, but here I am excited that a bunch of high schoolers decided to play football for Michigan. 

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41 minutes ago, Shelton said:

Sigh. I always say I’m not going to care about this dumb recruiting stuff, but here I am excited that a bunch of high schoolers decided to play football for Michigan. 

Its not like you need to get super nerdy to appreciate that they added better people than they usually do.   Some of these guys will be as dynamic and interesting to watch as a Jabril Peppers or maybe, even a Charles Woodson.  

But the bulk may just be competent coachable guys who we also need. 

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22 minutes ago, ROMAD1 said:

Its not like you need to get super nerdy to appreciate that they added better people than they usually do.   Some of these guys will be as dynamic and interesting to watch as a Jabril Peppers or maybe, even a Charles Woodson.  

But the bulk may just be competent coachable guys who we also need. 

I usually wait until now to pay attention. I see that they have some guys people are excited about and that overall they got a lot of good guys. Works for me. 

Thinking back, I remember when peppers and Gary committed. I remember when Daz Hill committed earlier this year as a thing. 

I cant say I remember much about anyone else. But it’s always nice to bring in good players to the teams I support. 

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5 minutes ago, Shelton said:

I usually wait until now to pay attention. I see that they have some guys people are excited about and that overall they got a lot of good guys. Works for me. 

Thinking back, I remember when peppers and Gary committed. I remember when Daz Hill committed earlier this year as a thing. 

I cant say I remember much about anyone else. But it’s always nice to bring in good players to the teams I support. 

Anyone who has face paint on and is up a lot or down a lot for any of these probably is strung a bit too tight to watch sports.  

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the class is ranked high because they brought in a lot of recruits.  if you look at average star rating theyre below osu and psu.  still a good class.  charbonnet is likely to get a 5th star (thereby giving him the michigan 5 star running back kiss of death).  hinton was close to 5 stars.  hill is probably michigan's third highest recruit ever behind gary and peppers.

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7 minutes ago, Buddha said:

the class is ranked high because they brought in a lot of recruits.  if you look at average star rating theyre below osu and psu.  still a good class.  charbonnet is likely to get a 5th star (thereby giving him the michigan 5 star running back kiss of death).  hinton was close to 5 stars.  hill is probably michigan's third highest recruit ever behind gary and peppers.

I'm interested to know if OSU is down after Meyer departure and a couple defections and they can or cannot recover by the end of the signing period. 

I'm also interested to know if Ed Warinner with the group he picked is going to work magic. 

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I read that Justin Fields, the number 1 QB in the 2018 class who played at Georgia is strongly considering transferring to OSU if Haskins leaves.    I hope that isn't true cause I think he would be a  perfect fit for them and I could easily see him giving us fits for the next couple years.  

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7 hours ago, ROMAD1 said:

Still in the running for the RB/LB Crouch apparently

that would be a nice pickup but he's probably going to tennessee.

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2 hours ago, Buddha said:

that would be a nice pickup but he's probably going to tennessee.

$$$$

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