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six-hopper

The 2018 minor league performance of the guys we got for J.D. Martinez

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10 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Genius tends to be misunderstood in its time.

I know, but fortunately I've learned to live with that.

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Six-hopper starts too many threads, but he is OK.  The way he bounces between Joe Six Pack sports fan and entry level saber kind of grows on you.   

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Those guys definitely have zero future in the majors.  Backup minor league infielders.

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On 7/5/2018 at 12:22 AM, Shelton said:

How did we get so lucky for so many of the “refugees” to end up here?

Angela Merkel and Jerry Brown invited me.

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Snippet from an Athletic article today with information pertinent to this thread:

Quote

 

Perhaps the replacement lies in the minor leagues, where Detroit has Dawel Lugo and Sergio Alcantara on its 40-man roster. Both players came over from Arizona in the J.D. Martinez trade last July.

Lugo, 23, has spent the season with Toledo as a second baseman and is batting .273 in 78 games (though he has a .283 on-base percentage). Alcantara, 21, is batting an identical .275 in 71 games as a shortstop for Double-A Erie (and currently owns a 10-game hit streak).

 

 

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Five walks in 330 ABs?  That isn't a promising stat.  Can't see that working out too well against MLB pitchers.  Hopefully he can be more selective and develop doubles power.  

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7 hours ago, six-hopper said:

Angela Merkel and Jerry Brown invited me.

And here we go . . . 

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7 hours ago, gmoney said:

Five walks in 330 ABs?  That isn't a promising stat.  Can't see that working out too well against MLB pitchers.  Hopefully he can be more selective and develop doubles power.  

He has increased this number by 20% since this post. What else do you want him to do? 

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On ‎7‎/‎7‎/‎2018 at 1:08 AM, Walewander said:

He has increased this number by 20% since this post. What else do you want him to do? 

  Problem solved.  He is developing a better eye at the plate even as I post this.

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From the Athletic's ASB evaluation:

 

 

Quote

 

17. Sergio Alcantara: SS

2018 Assignment: Double-A
Bats/Throws: S/R
DOB: July 10, 1996
Height/Weight: 5-9/168 lbs.
MLB Prediction: 2020

Acquired from Arizona in the exchange for J.D. Martinez in 2017, Alcantara is the purest shortstop in Detroit’s pipeline without comparison. Using his compact frame to his advantage, he’s exceptionally light on his feet, with quick-twitch reads off the bat.

Complementing his clean hands, Alcantara boasts a 70-grade cannon arm from the left side of the field. Defensively, the 22-year-old hasn’t suffered in his move to Double-A this season.

Concerns have been raised about Alcantara’s ability to hit at the higher levels of the system, but he’s exceeded expectations in 2018, hitting .292 over 80 games.

 

So perhaps to write the prospects off is a bit premature?

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15 minutes ago, LooseGoose said:

From the Athletic's ASB evaluation:

 

 

So perhaps to write the prospects off is a bit premature?

the problem with Alcantara is that he needs to get stronger or he will have to walk a ton to get to an OBP that can make up for near zero ISO. And unfortunately, despite being quick, he is not fast - so he doesn't bring base running value  to get to 2nd if he does have to depend on walks and singles for OBP.  He's not that small, so you hope he will be able to muscle up a little more yet. Still, I'd rather be hoping a guy gets stronger than that he finds plate discipline he lacks.

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How long do we wait for Alcantara to suddenly get stronger? At 22-years old, and with a thin frame, is there really an expectation there will be much in the way of strength gains over the next couple of years; at least in terms of meaningful, game impacting change? We're not talking about a guy with broad shoulders/back that looks like he's got room to hang positive weight/muscle. That's just not his body type.

I wouldn't expect it at this point. He's a glove-first guy with contact ability and virtually no power. That's fine, but expecting more than that or projecting substantially more than that at this stage in his development doesn't seem wise to me.

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On 7/5/2018 at 2:47 PM, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Genius tends to be misunderstood in its time.

Story of my life.

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46 minutes ago, LooseGoose said:

From the Athletic's ASB evaluation:

 

 

So perhaps to write the prospects off is a bit premature?

So maybe Alcantara will hit better than Ray Oyler and Mario Mendoza, maybe even better than Mark Belanger.

Unfortunately for him and the Tigers, the game long ago moved away from tolerating purely defensive shortstops who are complete wimps with the bat.  This year, among Major League shortstops who are "qualifiers," there are ten with an OPS of .800 or higher, 15 who are at .731 or higher, and 19 at .700 or higher.    There are a dozen with at least ten home runs, three with 20 or more.  There are 21 with five or more jacks, and 26 with at least four.  There are 13 with 20 or more doubles and 23 with 15 or more. 

A team with an offensive zero like Alcantara in the lineup is at a big disadvantage even if he is stellar in the field, because it is statistically very difficult if not impossible for a guy with truly pathetic offense to make up for that with his glove, even at a position on the "difficult" end of the defensive spectrum.  And even if some teams are at least theoretically good enough offensively overall to compensate for an Alcantara-sized hole in the batting order, with the current state of the Tigers' offense, and what they have in the farm system as far as position players, it doesn't seem likely that they will be such a team anytime soon.

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53 minutes ago, Microline133 said:

How long do we wait for Alcantara to suddenly get stronger? At 22-years old, and with a thin frame, is there really an expectation there will be much in the way of strength gains over the next couple of years; at least in terms of meaningful, game impacting change? We're not talking about a guy with broad shoulders/back that looks like he's got room to hang positive weight/muscle. That's just not his body type.

I wouldn't expect it at this point. He's a glove-first guy with contact ability and virtually no power. That's fine, but expecting more than that or projecting substantially more than that at this stage in his development doesn't seem wise to me.

I guess you wait as long as it doesn't cost you anything to leave him in the MiLB.  Despite Henning being over the top in another prospect piece I don't see Iglesias as anywhere near as easy to replace as many people seem to think.

My only point at the end of my post was that I'm happy the Tigers are looking at more guys that seem to have some bat skills like Alcantara as compared to more Moya types. Maybe Alcantara doesn't have the genes to get strong enough to be starter, but with a decent OBP and glove that's useful utility guy. I still tend to believe that if I have to pick the probabilities, I think a young man who can hit has a better chance to get stronger than a strong kid who can't really hit has to develop batting skill.

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16 minutes ago, six-hopper said:

So maybe Alcantara will hit better than Ray Oyler and Mario Mendoza, maybe even better than Mark Belanger.

Unfortunately for him and the Tigers, the game long ago moved away from tolerating purely defensive shortstops who are complete wimps with the bat.  This year, among Major League shortstops who are "qualifiers," there are ten with an OPS of .800 or higher, 15 who are at .731 or higher, and 19 at .700 or higher.    There are a dozen with at least ten home runs, three with 20 or more.  There are 21 with five or more jacks, and 26 with at least four.  There are 13 with 20 or more doubles and 23 with 15 or more. 

A team with an offensive zero like Alcantara in the lineup is at a big disadvantage even if he is stellar in the field, because it is statistically very difficult if not impossible for a guy with truly pathetic offense to make up for that with his glove, even at a position on the "difficult" end of the defensive spectrum.  And even if some teams are at least theoretically good enough offensively overall to compensate for an Alcantara-sized hole in the batting order, with the current state of the Tigers' offense, and what they have in the farm system as far as position players, it doesn't seem likely that they will be such a team anytime soon.

Of course, one of those SS who is inflating the offensive numbers is Machado, who is minus 19 runs defensively at the ASB and whose lack of D at SS is probably contributing to his team's division leading runs against.

I really wonder how his FA is going to play out. If I were a GM, I am not going to pay Manny big bucks if he insists on playing short.

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7 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

I guess you wait as long as it doesn't cost you anything to leave him in the MiLB.  Despite Henning being over the top in another prospect piece I don't see Iglesias as anywhere near as easy to replace as many people seem to think.

My only point at the end of my post was that I'm happy the Tigers are looking at more guys that seem to have some bat skills like Alcantara as compared to more Moya types. Maybe Alcantara doesn't have the genes to get strong enough, but I still tend to believe that if I have to pick the probabilities, I think a young man who can hit has a better chance to get stronger than a strong kid who can't really hit has to develop batting skill.

I don't disagree with you on several fronts here. Keep letting him develop in the minor leagues, that's not really a question. I'm just advocating that people probably need to adjust expectations for his upside potential. We're not talking a tall, skinny, 17-year old that you can dream on. We're talking a tin 22-year old that likely doesn't have substantial positive changes remaining his body. Its just expectation management and taking the full spectrum of development under consideration.

On your second point, I don't think they're necessarily focusing any more on bat-to-ball skills in player acquisition, just rather this is what's at the upper levels and it gives off the appearance they are. There's plenty of swing-and-miss guys and plenty of contact-oriented guys throughout the system. I haven't noticed any substantive change in organizational philosophy on that front over the last 2-5 years.

Lastly, I'm more of the opinion that you can't teach physicality/strength, and while the likelihood you can consistently teach someone how to make contact is small, its greater than teaching the former. From a player acquisition standpoint, for me personally, it depends on the portion of the developmental spectrum I'm looking to acquire from....if I'm going after a teenager that has years of development remaining, give me the guy with superior physicality/strength projection and I'll try to teach him how to get the most out of that physicality. If I'm going and getting a guy in his early-20 at High-A or Double-A (like Alcantara last year), then I may trend more toward a guy with demonstrated in-game skill (possibly bat-to-ball skills) than the dream of physical projection.

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37 minutes ago, Microline133 said:

Lastly, I'm more of the opinion that you can't teach physicality/strength, and while the likelihood you can consistently teach someone how to make contact is small, its greater than teaching the former. From a player acquisition standpoint, for me personally, it depends on the portion of the developmental spectrum I'm looking to acquire from....if I'm going after a teenager that has years of development remaining, give me the guy with superior physicality/strength projection and I'll try to teach him how to get the most out of that physicality. If I'm going and getting a guy in his early-20 at High-A or Double-A (like Alcantara last year), then I may trend more toward a guy with demonstrated in-game skill (possibly bat-to-ball skills) than the dream of physical projection.

This is the interesting part to me. The question is which set of limits is more hard coded genetically? I just tend to think that the neuro-perceptual apparatus needed to be a good hitter is the harder genetic limit of the two. Yes certainly most guys can never get strong enough either, but I think some can with work. I'm less sure anyone not born with it can be practice enough or be taught the ability to recognize 90mph+ pitches. From what I understand about brain plasticity, younger is going to be more possible, but how young? Even in a teen perceptual plasticity is waning. But it's an interesting topic -always interested in understanding it better.

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20 minutes ago, Microline133 said:

Lastly, I'm more of the opinion that you can't teach physicality/strength, and while the likelihood you can consistently teach someone how to make contact is small, its greater than teaching the former. From a player acquisition standpoint, for me personally, it depends on the portion of the developmental spectrum I'm looking to acquire from....if I'm going after a teenager that has years of development remaining, give me the guy with superior physicality/strength projection and I'll try to teach him how to get the most out of that physicality. If I'm going and getting a guy in his early-20 at High-A or Double-A (like Alcantara last year), then I may trend more toward a guy with demonstrated in-game skill (possibly bat-to-ball skills) than the dream of physical projection.

This all makes sense, at least from my POV scouting football players.

If an OL/DL/RB/LB/S doesn't naturally leverage his body and gather momentum for meaningful impact, it doesn't matter that much if he does put on 30 more pounds of muscle.  These guys can be coached up and taught technique, but to a certain extent, physicality can only be improved so much after a certain age.

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51 minutes ago, Microline133 said:

I don't disagree with you on several fronts here. Keep letting him develop in the minor leagues, that's not really a question. I'm just advocating that people probably need to adjust expectations for his upside potential. We're not talking a tall, skinny, 17-year old that you can dream on. We're talking a tin 22-year old that likely doesn't have substantial positive changes remaining his body. Its just expectation management and taking the full spectrum of development under consideration.

On your second point, I don't think they're necessarily focusing any more on bat-to-ball skills in player acquisition, just rather this is what's at the upper levels and it gives off the appearance they are. There's plenty of swing-and-miss guys and plenty of contact-oriented guys throughout the system. I haven't noticed any substantive change in organizational philosophy on that front over the last 2-5 years.

Lastly, I'm more of the opinion that you can't teach physicality/strength, and while the likelihood you can consistently teach someone how to make contact is small, its greater than teaching the former. From a player acquisition standpoint, for me personally, it depends on the portion of the developmental spectrum I'm looking to acquire from....if I'm going after a teenager that has years of development remaining, give me the guy with superior physicality/strength projection and I'll try to teach him how to get the most out of that physicality. If I'm going and getting a guy in his early-20 at High-A or Double-A (like Alcantara last year), then I may trend more toward a guy with demonstrated in-game skill (possibly bat-to-ball skills) than the dream of physical projection.

It is not uncommon for power to develop fairly late.  In his Age 20-24 seasons, Lou Whitaker's respective annual home run totals were 0, 3, 3, 1, and 5.  In his Age 25 season, he hit 15 homers.  And he was in double-digits every year for the next eleven, and for 13 out of the next 14, with a single-season high of 28.   (In the one off year he played just 119 games and hit nine jacks.).  He wound up with a career total of 244 home runs, one of which cleared the right-field roof at Tiger Stadium.

Whitaker's doubles totals also increased considerably as he moved from his early years into his prime.

Alan Trammell had a somewhat similar progression.

So a guy who shows no power at 22 can become a serious extra-base and long-ball threat down the road.  Unfortunately, I am not optimistic that Sergio Alacantara will do that.

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2 minutes ago, six-hopper said:

It is not uncommon for power to develop fairly late.  In his Age 20-24 seasons, Lou Whitaker's respective annual home run totals were 0, 3, 3, 1, and 5.  In his Age 25 season, he hit 15 homers.  And he was in double-digits every year for the next eleven, and for 13 out of the next 14, with a single-season high of 28.   (In the one off year he played just 119 games and hit nine jacks.).  He wound up with a career total of 244 home runs, one of which cleared the right-field roof at Tiger Stadium.

Whitaker's doubles totals also increased considerably as he moved from his early years into his prime.

Alan Trammell had a somewhat similar progression.

So a guy who shows no power at 22 can become a serious extra-base and long-ball threat down the road.  Unfortunately, I don't foresee Sergio Alacantara doing that.

Stars like Whitaker and Trammell are exceptions rather than examples of something that happens commonly.  

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Brady Anderson: Eleven home runs in more than 1600 Plate Appearances through his Age 27 season.  Then an escalation to  50 homers at Age 32.  Typical of the normal development process that every player goes through.

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