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six-hopper

Lowering the bar for the Hall of Fame

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9 minutes ago, bobrob2004 said:

There's really no difference between looking at WAR or WAA, you're just moving the scale up from "replacement-level player" to "league average player."  When comparing players, WAA isn't going to make one player look any better than just looking at WAR.  

Baseball-reference calculates it's WAR based on ERA while FanGraphs calculates it based on FIP.  Lolich's FIP was better than his ERA, which is why his fWAR is better than his rWAR.  

The difference between WAR and WAA is how players with different playing time are compared: 

http://www.detroittigertales.com/2014/07/war-baseline-its-all-about-playing-time.html#comment-form

Sometimes, it can make a meaningful difference.  I think WAA is better for the HoF because you aren't really interested in Above Replacement for Hall of Famers.  You already know they are all good, so seeing how far above average they are may be more relevant.  

 

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1 hour ago, bobrob2004 said:

There's really no difference between looking at WAR or WAA, you're just moving the scale up from "replacement-level player" to "league average player."  When comparing players, WAA isn't going to make one player look any better than just looking at WAR.  

WAR and WAA do not move in tandem with each other, and the difference between them is not moot.

As of today, Mike Trout and Willie Davis have basically the same WAR: 61. That means in terms of wins above replacement, their careers are equal. But Davis acquired his WAR across twice the playing time that Trout has. Trout has concentrated his wins in a much shorter timeframe because he is so much greater than the average player than was Davis who, although he had an objectively great career himself, also had stretches early and then again late in his career when he was barely average, even though he was adding a couple WAR to his total each of those years.

This is why Trout's WAA is 46.0, and Davis's is only 26.4, and why even though their WAR is basically equal, Trout's career is far greater than Davis's, even at half the playing time.

WAR rewards longevity; WAA rewards excellence.

1 hour ago, bobrob2004 said:

Baseball-reference calculates it's WAR based on ERA while FanGraphs calculates it based on FIP.  Lolich's FIP was better than his ERA, which is why his fWAR is better than his rWAR.  

OK, but I wonder there might be more to it then just that? After all, that's a big enough difference to move Lolich from a tie for 114th on B-R to 39th on FG, or IOW, the difference between outside-looking-in and in-with-a-bullet.

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2 hours ago, chasfh said:

OK, but I wonder there might be more to it then just that? After all, that's a big enough difference to move Lolich from a tie for 114th on B-R to 39th on FG, or IOW, the difference between outside-looking-in and in-with-a-bullet.

Just put together a quick table melding fWAR and bWAR for every pitcher in history with over 1000 IP (n=1225).

Overall, pitchers fWAR correlates strongly with FIP- (r=0.90), and pitchers bWAR correlates strongly with ERA+ (r=0.89). But things start to fray a bit when you review individual situations that shouldn't make sense.

A good example is our old friend, Jack Morris. His ERA- and FIP-, according to Fangraphs, are identical at 95, and his ERA+ is 105. Either way you slice it, Jack is a barely above average run preventer. Given that B-R WAR is based on runs allowed and FG WAR on FIP, you'd think the WARs should be nearly identical. Instead, his FG WAR is 55.8, and his B-R WAR is only 44.0. That's the difference between "mmmmmaybe Hall of Fame?" and "definitely Hall of Famous".

One other example is Elroy Face. His ERA- is 92 and FIP- is 91, close enough to be identical; his ERA+ is 109, so that checks out. And yet, his FG WAR is only 10.2, and his B-R WAR is 21.2, or more than double! And even stranger, his difference goes in the opposite direction from that of Jack Morris, so there's no consistency there, either.

Bottom line, though, is that there's something more going into the differences than just runs allowed versus FIP. 

I find this fascinating, and I'm going to keep looking into it.

 

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On ‎7‎/‎13‎/‎2018 at 2:29 PM, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Jack Morris pitched for the Reds?

He signed with them and went to camp, but never pitched in the regular season.  I just remember he shaved.  And I was a young kid too.

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On 7/14/2018 at 8:31 AM, Gehringer_2 said:

and yet the opposite argument is always used against Freehan, who was by far the best at his position in his league for a number of years - 10 straight ASGs and two top 3 MVP finishes at a position that produces few MVPs, but only played 13 full seasons.

Freehan is the Tiger not currently in the HoF that is most deserving of it.

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3 minutes ago, holygoat said:

Freehan is the Tiger not currently in the HoF that is most deserving of it.

...other than Whitaker.

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24 minutes ago, LooseGoose said:

...other than Whitaker.

It's close, but I think Freehan's exclusion is more egregious. I'm not gonna make a stink if someone thinks Lou deserves it more, though. They both deserve to be in.

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1 hour ago, tiger337 said:

 

10684-616025Bk.jpgjack-morris-of-the-cincinnati-reds-durin

That looks weird.

So, did Morris cross the picket line in the '94 offseason?  Per bbref he signed with the Reds on December 22, 1994.  He never actually pitched for CIncy in a regular season game.  All of his official stats end at 1994.

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tiger337, those photographs are a great find.  I never knew about the Cincinnati connection.  I see that he was already using Just For Men there, like he probably still is.  Mercifully the Blue Jays 86'd him from their occasional broadcast crew quite a while ago, he was just terrible.

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In one of those FSD HOF montages earlier this year they showed a clip of Morris from an interview prior to his first start.  He didn't have a mustache then either.  The gist of it was that it was supposed to be a Fidrych start but they announced he wouldn't be pitching and Morris would.  Fans were booing. It was at home.  He was unrecognizable.

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