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DumberAndLeaner

After 72 games

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16 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Fulmer is worse and is concerning, but he is a low K pitcher.  Which means he will be more subject to the vagaries of BABIP and flyball/HR rate than most pitchers.

I guess I haven't heard much about what they are working on with Fulmer, but at minimum he needs one of his pitches to be slower. 

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I think based on expectations that this year has been a roaring success so far.

Some players have been given a chance and shown they don't have a future here.

Others have shown they may be a part of the future - Candelario, Hicks, Boyd.

There is still time to see some more of those that the jury is till out on - Jones - Stewart - Goodrum -among others.

I expect after the trade deadline we'll see more MiLB players come up for an audition.

They've usually been reasonably competitive and have gotten a taste of winning together.

We may still net some prospects for veterans we took a flyer on - Liriano, Martin, Fiers...

Gardenhire seems to have the clubhouse in a good place and Bosio appears to be doing some good work.

For a year that everyone knew was going to be a losing season and part of a rebuild that's not a failure.

 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, LooseGoose said:

I think based on expectations that this year has been a roaring success so far.

Some players have been given a chance and shown they don't have a future here.

Others have shown they may be a part of the future - Candelario, Hicks, Boyd.

There is still time to see some more of those that the jury is till out on - Jones - Stewart - Goodrum -among others.

I expect after the trade deadline we'll see more MiLB players come up for an audition.

They've usually been reasonably competitive and have gotten a taste of winning together.

We may still net some prospects for veterans we took a flyer on - Liriano, Martin, Fiers...

Gardenhire seems to have the clubhouse in a good place and Bosio appears to be doing some good work.

For a year that everyone knew was going to be a losing season and part of a rebuild that's not a failure.

This is about it.

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6 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

This is about it.

If anything Gardenhire has been too successful, as the Tigers' record isn't tanky enough for a top 5 pick at the moment.

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33 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

They also aren't bad enough to tank.  They are a run of the mill bad team.

The players aren't going to try to tank.  And there is enough talent on the team to float above some other teams.

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47 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

They also aren't bad enough to tank.  They are a run of the mill bad team.

True, but without Fiers, Liriano, and maybe Boyd in the 2nd half, they maybe XXXX by the end of the season.

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Pythag has them a 70 win team, they are +2 wins on that.

Fiers, Liriano and Boyd have an aggregate WAR of 3.6.  Boyd is regressing to mean anyway.

Maybe that 70 win pace becomes a 65 win pace without those guys.  That is another 33 wins over the next 83 games -> 69 wins total.

 

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6 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Pythag has them a 70 win team, they are +2 wins on that.

Fiers, Liriano and Boyd have an aggregate WAR of 3.6.  Boyd is regressing to mean anyway.

Maybe that 70 win pace becomes a 65 win pace without those guys.  That is another 33 wins over the next 83 games -> 69 wins total.

 

But if they move Fiers and Liriano, and Boyd is dealt or regresses significantly, that reduces an already flimsy rotation to filler.  Combine that with the bullpen, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them have an awful time meeting that 65 win pace.

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2 minutes ago, Casimir said:

But if they move Fiers and Liriano, and Boyd is dealt or regresses significantly, that reduces an already flimsy rotation to filler.  Combine that with the bullpen, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them have an awful time meeting that 65 win pace.

yeah - the lack of starting pitching at Toledo is pretty frightening. There are lot of arms in the pipeline, but none I can see for this year - and absolutely not the two or three they could use if they move those guys.

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They have a 6 man rotation, so need to move two guys up if three starters were traded.

I think -1.5 WAR aggregate for half a season for 2 pitchers is closer to correct than not. 

Even if it is -2.5 WAR aggregate, we are talking 68 wins instead of 69.

It just isn't that big a deal by itself.

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4 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

They have a 6 man rotation, so need to move two guys up.

I think -1.5 WAR aggregate for half a season for 2 pitchers is closer to correct than not. 

Even if it is -2.5 WAR aggregate, we are talking 68 wins instead of 69.

It just isn't that big a deal by itself.

I do think it could be a bit worse than that. From Liriano and Fiers to what is available at Toledo I would put it at more like three more losses per spot for the half season which would put the difference for two spots at 6 losses.

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2 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

3.5 WAR to -2.5 WAR is 6 losses.

Bigglesworth flaunting his math skillz.

  • Haha 1

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4 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

3.5 WAR to -2.5 WAR is 6 losses.

but 69 to 68 wins is one. I guess I didn't follow your earlier post. Did you just mean from your own original prediction?

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I am saying going from 3.5 from those three pitchers to -1.5 WAR would lower their expected win total to 69 given where they are at now.

Taking another win away would get you to 68.

In any event, 68 wins, 72 wins, does it really matter much?

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14 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

I am saying going from 3.5 from those three pitchers to -1.5 WAR would lower their expected win total to 69 given where they are at now.

Taking another win away would get you to 68.

In any event, 68 wins, 72 wins, does it really matter much?

OK -  I guess my way to look at it would be that given that we are where we are, we would/could still lose 6 additional games based on whatever an updated projection would be with those guys starting from the deadline which I think not quite the same. In any case, the overall point I would make if that I do think they could still get a LOT worse if Avila pulls the plug again. Without Liriano, Fiers and/or Iglesias andBoyd,  I think they would have no trouble duplicating last years 6/23 September.

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19 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Come on.

6 - 23 is insanely poor and would be difficult for the 2003 Tigers to duplicate.

And yet they managed it. If Avila holds another firesale (which I'm not advocating at all), I would have to rate the team that is left as worse than the one left in Sept last year. Your only improvement is Candelario (depending on whether they moved Martin) and the pitching would be worse.

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22 hours ago, bobrob2004 said:

  Verlander wasn't pitching like Veralnder. 

 

Until he got away from Asmuch....LOL! Verlander didn't even have his typical slow start this season did he? Do you attribute that to "nature" or to "nurture"?:wink:

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1 hour ago, DumberAndLeaner said:

Until he got away from Asmuch....LOL! Verlander didn't even have his typical slow start this season did he? Do you attribute that to "nature" or to "nurture"?:wink:

maybe JV is going to invert his typical season and slump in the 2nd half - he gave up 4 ER for the first time this season in his last start.

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