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2018 Trade Deadline Thread: (Perfect Fits & Crazy Rumors):

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20 minutes ago, irvink said:

I never envision a scenario where we get a stud prospect, but I feel like if we trade him now, we're getting paying the great majority of his salary and not getting much more than the next Jose King. 

The one thing we have going for us now is that amount of SP on the market does not match the  teams needing SP. So if JZ continues his success into August, maybe a desperate team eats more $ than we could have dreamed of before and we get a couple of fliers in return. 

That's ultimately not that exciting unless we can structure a deal where we are paying very little of his 2020 salary, so that if we are in a position to add players we have some salary space.

I think all of that is pie in the sky. 

Whether you wait till august or not your return is not going to be much more than jose king. Whether you wait till august, july, next march, you're going to eat about half of what's remaining and it will be spread evenly. Nobody is going to get desperate and eat more because even what they have or whatever else they can get will be about the same as a the value of paying zimmerman $45 million over the remaining 3 years.

Even in 2020 that still $10 million in savings, which can add a decent player. 

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If somebody wants to eat that contract I'm all in, whether it nets Jose King or not.  I'll trade that contract for a new water cooler.

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7 hours ago, Keepleyland2 said:

I think all of that is pie in the sky. 

Whether you wait till august or not your return is not going to be much more than jose king. Whether you wait till august, july, next march, you're going to eat about half of what's remaining and it will be spread evenly. Nobody is going to get desperate and eat more because even what they have or whatever else they can get will be about the same as a the value of paying zimmerman $45 million over the remaining 3 years.

Even in 2020 that still $10 million in savings, which can add a decent player. 

It depends on how well and how long JZ pitches.  If he finishes out the year strong and carries it into next year, he will have value.

I would have scoffed 2 months ago at the notion, but the potential is there even if the odds aren't great.

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I would also add Zimmermann isn't blocking anyone and I don't care if the Tigers save money.  They are going to be bad another 2-3 years regardless.  So I just assume allow JZ to try to rebuild trade value and trade him for an asset once his value exceeds (and risk drops below) what he is owed.

If he can be a solid 3 or better yet a serviceable 2, he is going to have value next year at the trade deadline, especially if the Tigers are willing to eat some of his salary.

If he sucks or becomes injured, then I guess he does.  I don't see how that is markedly worse than moving him now for a double AA guy whose ceiling is a 4th OF.

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15 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

I would also add Zimmermann isn't blocking anyone and I don't care if the Tigers save money.  They are going to be bad another 2-3 years regardless.  So I just assume allow JZ to try to rebuild trade value and trade him for an asset once his value exceeds (and risk drops below) what he is owed.

If he can be a solid 3 or better yet a serviceable 2, he is going to have value next year at the trade deadline, especially if the Tigers are willing to eat some of his salary.

If he sucks or becomes injured, then I guess he does.  I don't see how that is markedly worse than moving him now for a double AA guy whose ceiling is a 4th OF.

Yep this is exactly how I feel.   Either way his contract will be off the books by the time we are contending and hopefully spending money again so might as well hold onto him until you can get an offer for somebody that can potentially help you in the future. 

If that offer never comes no big deal, you are likely going to need a starter to pitch those innings anyway.

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It's going to be crap shoot with JZ because you have a race between any value he can build while we hold him and that fact that his age related decline clock is ticking loudly at 32. He only has a slightly better than even chance to still be pitching in three years, maybe less given his particular injury history. If it were me, I'd take any offer than would assume most of his salary at any time I could get it, but no matter what  strategy Avila chooses, he has a high probability of hitting a seven against his point.

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26 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

I would also add Zimmermann isn't blocking anyone and I don't care if the Tigers save money.  They are going to be bad another 2-3 years regardless.  So I just assume allow JZ to try to rebuild trade value and trade him for an asset once his value exceeds (and risk drops below) what he is owed.

If he can be a solid 3 or better yet a serviceable 2, he is going to have value next year at the trade deadline, especially if the Tigers are willing to eat some of his salary.

If he sucks or becomes injured, then I guess he does.  I don't see how that is markedly worse than moving him now for a double AA guy whose ceiling is a 4th OF.

This seems to be the most reasonable approach unless the Tigers get blindsided by a Godfather offer anytime soon.

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58 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

I would also add Zimmermann isn't blocking anyone and I don't care if the Tigers save money.  They are going to be bad another 2-3 years regardless.  So I just assume allow JZ to try to rebuild trade value and trade him for an asset once his value exceeds (and risk drops below) what he is owed.

If he can be a solid 3 or better yet a serviceable 2, he is going to have value next year at the trade deadline, especially if the Tigers are willing to eat some of his salary.

If he sucks or becomes injured, then I guess he does.  I don't see how that is markedly worse than moving him now for a double AA guy whose ceiling is a 4th OF.

I agree he's not blocking anyone now - but he may be blocking someone by spring training.   Thus my inclination to dump the contract if possible and make way for the kids.  

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If he is blocking someone, then he can be moved at that time.

That written, we should be so lucky that the Tigers will have 5 starting pitchers that are better suited than Zimmermann come spring training, presuming Jordan isn't injured.

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I can't picture any of the kids being ready by Spring Training outside of maybe Burrows and Funkhouser but that's pushing it.

As of now I see it as Fulmer, Boyd, Zimm and a couple openings. One will likely be Norris if things go well and one maybe Burrows or Funkhouser.

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5 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

I can't picture any of the kids being ready by Spring Training outside of maybe Burrows and Funkhouser but that's pushing it.

As of now I see it as Fulmer, Boyd, Zimm and a couple openings. One will likely be Norris if things go well and one maybe Burrows or Funkhouser.

You and Biggs are probably right but the contract scares me for albatross potential.  If we need SP help Avila could sign a couple more Fiers/Liriano type.

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Dream -   Tigers trade Fulmer to the Dodgers and get Alex Verdugo and other prospects.     Verdugo goes to left field immediately.   Nick goes to DH,  The Deuce & Reyes play in RF.  Victor goes elsewhere, I don't care.   We call up someone who can actually play first base  (Or trade Martin or Lariano or Green for someone who can play first base).     Jeimer Candelario goes on the DL and gets the wrist surgery and starts healing for Spring Training.     I know there is benefit to having bad fielders in RF and 1b but I can't watch that anymore.   It's painful to watch.     First base may be the easiest position to play, but it doesn't mean it's easy.   Nick's trying hard, but he's not an outfielder and it would be unfair to try to make him a first baseman now - he doesn't seem to do too well with footwork.   He's a DH.  Let him DH.  His trade value goes up as a full time hitter.   

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I think Funk and Burrows see Detroit next year but it would surprise me if even one is ready / pushing for the promotion early. Funk just got to Toledo and still has work to do. Burrows is still in AA. Hall could /should be ready sometime next year too.

Fiers could easily be traded in offseason or next summer. Fulmer is also an offseason deadline trade candidate, if he survives this summer. Kids will get the chance when they are ready. 

JZ's resurrection has been fun to watch, but I agree, unless they get something interesting for him or they can be free of most of his 2020 salary, they may as well hang on. As I and others have said, if he stays looking like a good #3 starter/teams believe he will stay there for a minute, that has value, esp if the Tigers makes him a 13 mil guy or so by eating salary. 

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37 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

Dream -   Tigers trade Fulmer to the Dodgers and get Alex Verdugo and other prospects.     Verdugo goes to left field immediately.   Nick goes to DH,  The Deuce & Reyes play in RF.  Victor goes elsewhere, I don't care.   We call up someone who can actually play first base  (Or trade Martin or Lariano or Green for someone who can play first base).     Jeimer Candelario goes on the DL and gets the wrist surgery and starts healing for Spring Training.     I know there is benefit to having bad fielders in RF and 1b but I can't watch that anymore.   It's painful to watch.     First base may be the easiest position to play, but it doesn't mean it's easy.   Nick's trying hard, but he's not an outfielder and it would be unfair to try to make him a first baseman now - he doesn't seem to do too well with footwork.   He's a DH.  Let him DH.  His trade value goes up as a full time hitter.   

Verdugo scares me as a headliner. I think we can and must do better.

I agree that Nick's best position is DH, but it can be a tough adjustment for players. I would not assume his numbers go up as fulltime hitter. They could just as easily take a dip.

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1 hour ago, RandyMarsh said:

I can't picture any of the kids being ready by Spring Training outside of maybe Burrows and Funkhouser but that's pushing it.

As of now I see it as Fulmer, Boyd, Zimm and a couple openings. One will likely be Norris if things go well and one maybe Burrows or Funkhouser.

This sounds right to me, though it seems like a matter of time before Norris is converted to a back-end reliever . . . or packaged in a trade once he gets healthy as a pot-sweetener to get him a change of scenery.  I love his ceiling, but I hate the black cloud that has been hovering over him for some time.

Funkhouser needs to show improvement in his command in Toledo, but it does seem like a legit candidate to compete for a rotation spot in ST.  Hard to say with Burrows, as he hasn't been promoted yet and Hall is now on the radar now that he's also been promoted to Toledo.  

Do they have enough arms ready to avoid signing another back-end veteran?  Well, it depends on Avila's commitment to saving money but it seems like he signs a guy.

All things considered, Avila still needs JZ for the '19 rotation unless, like Cas said, he gets a "Godfather offer" for him.

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11 minutes ago, irvink said:

Verdugo scares me as a headliner. I think we can and must do better.

I agree that Nick's best position is DH, but it can be a tough adjustment for players. I would not assume his numbers go up as fulltime hitter. They could just as easily take a dip.

But then my eyes would not be assaulted with his outfield defense.    Worth the trade. 

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7 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

But then my eyes would not be assaulted with his outfield defense.    Worth the trade. 

Fair.

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2 hours ago, LooseGoose said:

I agree he's not blocking anyone now - but he may be blocking someone by spring training.   Thus my inclination to dump the contract if possible and make way for the kids.  

Pitchers never block anyone.  You can never ever ever have too much pitching.  

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2 hours ago, tiger337 said:

Pitchers never block anyone.  You can never ever ever have too much pitching.  

Yes.  In the unlikely event that three the of Funkhouser, Hall, Burrows and Faedo quartet can go from being in Erie in June to Detroit by April I guess you just have to figure out who goes to the pen.

JZ was clearly gassed after 90 pitches, but Gardy left him in anyways against Cron just now.  I read in the paper this AM that JZ was looking forward to getting treatment over the AS break, but I guess his manager doesn't care that he's hurting.

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3 hours ago, tiger337 said:

Pitchers never block anyone.  You can never ever ever have too much pitching.  

Only a sith deals in absolutes. 

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6 minutes ago, Shelton said:

Only a sith deals in absolutes. 

The gift that keeps on giving.

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14 hours ago, mickeyb105 said:

This sounds right to me, though it seems like a matter of time before Norris is converted to a back-end reliever . .

let's see if he has 95 back or not. If he does it will make a lot of the rest of his issues easier to get to where they are liveable.

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14 hours ago, tiger337 said:

Pitchers never block anyone.  You can never ever ever have too much pitching.  

no, but JZ is a pitcher with an even higher than normal probability of sleeping on his neck wrong tomorrow and never pitching effectively again. I'm happy to take whatever performance we get from him as long as it lasts, but I'm always going to have a line in the water for an offer to take him off my hands at low or no cost. 

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