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40 game mark. Are your expectations adjusted?

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Please don't mortgage the future because you might win the division with an 80-82 record.  

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7 minutes ago, chasfh said:

If Avila/Ilitch decided to go for it because they're close on July 31, I might well just give up on this franchise until they sell.

I've always been on the side of keeping Fulmer, not only because we have five years of control and should be planning to field him as our ace when we're (supposed to be) ready to contend, but to your other point, we steered the rebuilding ship right into what might be the biggest buyer's deadline market ever, so the chances of anyone like the Yankees or the Braves emptying their farm system of several of their top 100 prospects to get Fulmer are practically zero. 

How do you define “go for it”?

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Just now, Shelton said:

How do you define “go for it”?

That's up to me. 

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This seems like a fun thread.

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8 minutes ago, chasfh said:

If Avila/Ilitch decided to go for it because they're close on July 31, I might well just give up on this franchise until they sell.

I've always been on the side of keeping Fulmer, not only because we have five years of control and should be planning to field him as our ace when we're (supposed to be) ready to contend, but to your other point, we steered the rebuilding ship right into what might be the biggest buyer's deadline market ever, so the chances of anyone like the Yankees or the Braves emptying their farm system of several of their top 100 prospects to get Fulmer are practically zero. 

With regard to the fulmer thing, I don’t know. A lot depends on how good he looks. Even in a buyer’s market, an asset like fulmer (assuming he is pitching well) is still rare on the market, for the reason you listed. He’s still under control into the years where you hope the rebuild will have become a contending team. I think most teams with a similar talent would see that, too, and may be less inclined to put their version of fulmer on the market. 

There are always a couple of high paid guys like verlander that are out there and wouldn’t cost as much in the way of prospects. It depends on the market and payroll of the buyer whether going for a verlander at a lesser prospect cost is preferable to going after a fulmer at a higher prospect cost. 

For more fungible guys like Greene and liriano and castellanos, the buyer’s market definitely stings. But in a way it can be helpful if the guy is solid enough to want to keep around a few more years if there is no good trade. If no one wants to trade for castellanos because there are so many similar values out there, that also means he wouldn’t be in high demand as a free agent, and you could in theory sign him for a better deal than you may have thought possible when there were more buyers out there. 

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I agree that the top of the market is generally less affected by a buyers orientation than are the great swath of middle talent. It all depends whether the buyers are looking for veteran starters, like a Cole Hamels (in the final guaranteed year of his contract), or are seeking controllable-youngblood-with-a-future like Fulmer. If the latter, that could help us, although if the A's are willing to part with Manaea or the Royals with Junis, even that market might tighten up for us.

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31 minutes ago, kdog said:

This seems like a fun thread.

How do you define "fun"?

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I'm just enjoying the season. As far as expectations... I think that a harsh correction is coming. I can see why someone might expect more based on what we've seen, but I think they would be misguided. 

One thing I will say is that this team is a lot more fun to watch than in years past. Gardy is a good interview and they go first to third and there's a different star every night. 

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7 hours ago, Shelton said:

Nah, define it any way you want. Just like others can define what “easily” means to them. 

There was a group of girls back in high school . . .

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2 hours ago, diaspora04 said:

There was a group of girls back in high school . . .

When Deuce was in high school, he defined it as every girl.

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The one thing that stands out for me is how mediocre the division is so far. Cleveland has to fix their pen if they hope to go anywhere, but even still, they might be the best team in the division. Which isn't saying much. It's possible that the level of competition will give a false sense of hope and keep people interested in the tigers longer than what we would have previously thought. But I still don't see any big change in the expectations for this team. They might play 5-10 games above where they were projected, but that would be on the high side.

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I would tend to agree that the team we have seen so far it not a 100 loss team, but while that is certainly open to opinion/discussion, I don't think it is the most important question regarding whether they will lose 100, which is (as some have already mentioned) what is the team going to look like after July or August, and we really have no idea what Avila's plans are. Ifhe  finds some way to pull the plug to even half the degree he did last year, another 6 and 23 Sept wouldn't be unlikely. The point has been made that we now have less valuable players so moves are less likely - which is a fair point, but still, we don't really know much about what Al is thinking - maybe he doesn't know yet exactly. For instance, maybe he really wants another top pick and is willing to manipulate the situation to get one. I don't think that is all that likely, but I have no evidence to argue the point either.

WRT Fulmer - I'm really torn on him. There is something missing - maybe he has to get more speed difference between his pitches, maybe his 4 seamer just doesn't move enough for him to get to elite status, but his inconsistency seems baffling for guy with his tools.

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56 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

When Deuce was in high school, he defined it as every girl.

He kept a list, but he didn't mark down every girl on it.  Only if he got both the girl and her mom.

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40 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

I would tend to agree that the team we have seen so far it not a 100 loss team, but while that is certainly open to opinion/discussion, I don't think it is the most important question regarding whether they will lose 100, which is (as some have already mentioned) what is the team going to look like after July or August, and we really have no idea what Avila's plans are. Ifhe  finds some way to pull the plug to even half the degree he did last year, another 6 and 23 Sept wouldn't be unlikely. The point has been made that we now have less valuable players so moves are less likely - which is a fair point, but still, we don't really know much about what Al is thinking - maybe he doesn't know yet exactly. For instance, maybe he really wants another top pick and is willing to manipulate the situation to get one. I don't think that is all that likely, but I have no evidence to argue the point either.

WRT Fulmer - I'm really torn on him. There is something missing - maybe he has to get more speed difference between his pitches, maybe his 4 seamer just doesn't move enough for him to get to elite status, but his inconsistency seems baffling for guy with his tools.

It's not so much about the player's intrinsic value...it's that it's likely to be a real buyer's market. So a guy like Casty automatically has much less value than he would have a few years ago. If that is indeed the case, I don't see a whole lot of incentive to sell off. The worst contracts we have aren't moveable anyway, and if you can't get even a decent prospect for some of the other guys, what's the sense in selling just to get rid of them? We may have reached the point after last year where we've moved the players we can realistically move, and even last year, there was alot of noise about the caliber of the players we got back in return. I can't imagine the returns being better this year. It's a tough position to be in. And the year when we actually have the #1 pick is a year when it's a weak draft. Go figure. 

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18 minutes ago, stanpapi said:

It's not so much about the player's intrinsic value...it's that it's likely to be a real buyer's market. So a guy like Casty automatically has much less value than he would have a few years ago. If that is indeed the case, I don't see a whole lot of incentive to sell off. The worst contracts we have aren't moveable anyway, and if you can't get even a decent prospect for some of the other guys, what's the sense in selling just to get rid of them? We may have reached the point after last year where we've moved the players we can realistically move, and even last year, there was alot of noise about the caliber of the players we got back in return. I can't imagine the returns being better this year. It's a tough position to be in. And the year when we actually have the #1 pick is a year when it's a weak draft. Go figure. 

Agreed 100%.  Nobody is going to give you value for Castellanos, who is an OK hitter with no discernable value defensively but who doesn't hit well enough to DH for a contender.  Market value:  zero.  So why trade him, just because you can, and because all the internet GM's say that it's a no-brainer?

As for Fulmer, isn't he the only guy that we would want to have here, well maybe Candelario we'll see, in 2 or 3 years if the recovery goes according to plan?  I'll trade him for a top 10 prospect, like Vladdy Jr., but that deal isn't going to be out there.  

As for the other guys that aren't going to be staying, like Iggy, go ahead and dump them but don't expect anything thrilling in return.

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