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2018 Midterm Elections

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The polls never properly quantified the people who actually ended up voting. And then they had ridiculous D+ spreads to them that weren't realistic. So other than those two critical things, they were right on the money. 

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13 minutes ago, stanpapi said:

The polls never properly quantified the people who actually ended up voting. And then they had ridiculous D+ spreads to them that weren't realistic. So other than those two critical things, they were right on the money. 

What do you base that on?  

And if they were so biased, why did they get the final national percentages right?  

It sounds as if you are taking talking points from before the election and still using them even though the national polls turned out right.  

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Just now, tiger337 said:

What do you base that on?  

And if they were so biased, why did they get the final national percentages right?  

It sounds as if you are taking talking points from before the election and still using them even though the national polls turned out right.  

First of all, the national vote has no bearing on how we select a president. 

As for D+ spreads, the D+ numbers they were using were in line with what were historically wave elections for one party or the other. As many of you now acknowledge, the dems were not running a strong candidate. She was actually historically bad. So the D+8, +10, etc. that we were seeing in many states made absolutely no sense at all. I was in fact talking about the D+ spreads in many states as we ran up to election day. And I repeatedly cited them as a reason Trump would win. Nobody on here acknowledged it then, so I certainly don't expect anyone to admit it now. 

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Of the three final RCP poll averages only Wisconsin looked like an outlier

Mi. 3.6, Clinton .3 Trump final

Pa. 2.1 Clinton, .7 Trump final

WI 6.5 Clinton. .7 Trump final

Only Wisconsin is outside margin of error. But they are still waiting returns from Waukesha County

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25 minutes ago, stanpapi said:

First of all, the national vote has no bearing on how we select a president. 

As for D+ spreads, the D+ numbers they were using were in line with what were historically wave elections for one party or the other. As many of you now acknowledge, the dems were not running a strong candidate. She was actually historically bad. So the D+8, +10, etc. that we were seeing in many states made absolutely no sense at all. I was in fact talking about the D+ spreads in many states as we ran up to election day. And I repeatedly cited them as a reason Trump would win. Nobody on here acknowledged it then, so I certainly don't expect anyone to admit it now. 

The national vote has bearing on whether the polls were correct or not which is what we are discussing.  Why does it matter that the polls were right?  It means that they are worth watching again in future elections.  

Trump won the election because he won some states by narrow margins and those were all states that the polls said were too close to call.  

If the polls were as biased or mis-representative as you claim, why did they come so close to the actual results?

 

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37 minutes ago, stanpapi said:

First of all, the national vote has no bearing on how we select a president. 

The fact that the national vote has no bearing on how we select a president is irrelevant to a discussion about the accuracy of the national polls.

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7 minutes ago, Euphdude said:

I guarantee if Trump had won the popular vote, the national vote would matter.

It matters when he lost it, that's why we have his stoopid commission that failed like 3 days into the job

 

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53 minutes ago, Euphdude said:

I guarantee if Trump had won the popular vote, the national vote would matter.

You would be right... if he had won the popular vote, he'd be bragging about how he received more popular votes than any candidate in history. Regardless of whether it was accurate or not.

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This is a fascinating note on intensity.  The GOP spent tons to win this one and lost it

 

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So... Pence in AZ praising Arpaio as a tireless champion of law.

Really?  

You cannot make this **** up.

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3 hours ago, pfife said:

 

That is the greatest unintentionally hilarious political ad ever made. 

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10 hours ago, ROMAD1 said:

 

Meanwhile the UK's left is off the rails with anti-semitism

This in addition to the fact that their party leader is basically an outed Czech intelligence service operative

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