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1 hour ago, pfife said:

because the first post in this thread references..... The GOP strategy, which is all about her.... which is really shocking

1st post:  on topic.  Yours:  Not on topic.  Hillary isn't running.

Nice try stud

 

Deflect and justify. It's the GOP strategy. It worked in 2016 but I would say most Americans can see through it. But the racists will still turn out to vote for their favorite white man in November.

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1 minute ago, Sports_Freak said:

It worked in 2016 but I would say most Americans can see through it.

You're giving Americans too much credit as I did pre-2016.  

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7 hours ago, stanpapi said:

I don't mean they didn't go do something else. I meant they didn't sit and wallow in their own despair for months on end. 

You're correct. They didn't wallow for months. It was for years, 8 years to be exact. 

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4 minutes ago, Euphdude said:

You're giving Americans too much credit as I did pre-2016.  

The difference is the inexact science of the polls. All the polls had Hillary running away with a victory. So many voters, myself included, just couldn't bring themselves to vote for her. 2018 will be different. No matter what anyone says, many will be voting straight Democratic. I have said all along that Trump will destroy and end the GOP party. And he's well on his way. Unless the Republicans get the Russian vote, which they may be counting on. 😑

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All the polls did not have Hillary running away with it.  I am not even sure if any credible ones had her running away with it.

Most polls had Hillary with a slight lead, well within polling error.

A lot of people (and media outlets) simply saw a number of polls showing her with a (slight) lead and overstated her odds as a consequence.  I also suspect many just didn't see Trump as a plausible candidate, so they lowered his odds, though that misconception tended to be more prevalent earlier in the campaign.

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Maybe the GOP should run on their achievements?

 

Oh wait

 

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6 minutes ago, pfife said:

Maybe the GOP should run on their achievements?

 

Oh wait

 

Donald Trump has been fantastic... we have never experienced so much winning in our history.

Also, let's set our midterm strategy up to run against a retired Westchester County grandmother and not on all the winning.

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39 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

All the polls did not have Hillary running away with it.  I am not even sure if any credible ones had her running away with it.

Most polls had Hillary with a slight lead, well within polling error.

A lot of people (and media outlets) simply saw a number of polls showing her with a (slight) lead and overstated her odds as a consequence.  I also suspect many just didn't see Trump as a plausible candidate, so they lowered his odds, though that misconception tended to be more prevalent earlier in the campaign.

This is true.  The polls were not wrong.  I think what happened in some cases was they said Clinton had an 75% chance of winning or something like that and people interpreted that as running away with it when it actually indicated a close race.   

Another thing is people like to discredit polls because they don't like math and science, so if they see one that doesn't correctly pick the winner, they will use it as proof that polls don't work.  

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The polls nailed the popular vote, if I remember correctly.

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15 minutes ago, pfife said:

Maybe the GOP should run on their achievements?

 

Oh wait

 

Unfortunately we can say the same thing about both parties.  What is the message of the Democrats now other than saying Trump is terrible?

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1 minute ago, tiger337 said:

Unfortunately we can say the same thing about both parties.  What is the message of the Democrats now other than saying Trump is terrible?

Bernie Sanders is the closest the Democrats have to a leading voice and platform, and he's an independent.  

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2 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

The polls nailed the popular vote, if I remember correctly.

They did... they were more off at the state level, specifically in the Midwest.

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1 minute ago, Edman85 said:

The polls nailed the popular vote, if I remember correctly.

yeah, the aggregate of the national polls was pretty close to the actual margin.  what happened was that Trump won a few key states in very close votes and that gave him the victory.  

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23 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

Unfortunately we can say the same thing about both parties.  What is the message of the Democrats now other than saying Trump is terrible?

https://abetterdeal.democraticleader.gov/

 

beyond this, there are 2 other differences:

1) Trump is president, Hillary is not, so "Trump is terrible" is a temporally relevant strategy.

2) Democrats are not in control of any of the arms of government so are unable, by design, to have accomplishments, short of short circuiting unwanted things by the GOP.

 

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4 minutes ago, Euphdude said:

Pelosi is front and center on that site.  That is a problem moving forward for Democrats - no matter how much we may like her policies.

I don't think that's a problem.   The GOP will just make a new Pelosi.  

The real problem would be letting potential GOP advertisements determine who runs the Democratic party and their policies.  

 

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18 minutes ago, Euphdude said:

Pelosi is front and center on that site.  That is a problem moving forward for Democrats - no matter how much we may like her policies.

For better or for worse, Conor Lamb pretty much neutralized the Pelosi attack in his race by simply stating that it would be wrong to characterize him as supporting her for Speaker. And Pelosi, I suspect, is not an idiot: she knows that candidates in some districts will be able to take away the best attack line against them by stating that.

I just think "Pelosi" as a midterm strategy is overrated. She's more popular nationally than both Mitch and Paul Ryan are. Either run on your accomplishments or GTFO.

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I specifically remember Nate Silver saying that Trump has as much chance of winning as the Cubs did of coming back 3-1 to win the WS. 

I do not recall if he said this before/after the Cubs actually did it.   I also think people misinterpreted that... as if he was saying "yeah right.... he's got no shot".

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Oblong said:

I specifically remember Nate Silver saying that Trump has as much chance of winning as the Cubs did of coming back 3-1 to win the WS. 

I do not recall if he said this before/after the Cubs actually did it.   I also think people misinterpreted that... as if he was saying "yeah right.... he's got no shot".

 

 

There's an overall misconception in what FiveThirtyEight actually does, tbh... but that conversation has been beaten dead over the past two years and I doubt the understanding is getting much better.

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The Ryan/McConnell/Trump party has been running against strong women ever since. Rush Limbaugh coined the term Femi-Nazi.

If the opposition party didn’t have Hilary or Nancy they. Would invent someone.

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1 hour ago, Oblong said:

I specifically remember Nate Silver saying that Trump has as much chance of winning as the Cubs did of coming back 3-1 to win the WS. 

I do not recall if he said this before/after the Cubs actually did it.   I also think people misinterpreted that... as if he was saying "yeah right.... he's got no shot".

 

 

Right, Silver was not especially confident that Clinton would win. 

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Again, not to rehash it all over, but the other factor is that Trump was *way* behind after the 1st debate, closing much of the gap only late, when many news orgs' models said movement was no longer possible and they had stopped looking seriously at new polling. Those that continued to poll and/or watch polls after the last debate clearly saw Hillary's lead evaporating, but they were in the minority of the voices being heard.

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7 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

Again, not to rehash it all over, but the other factor is that Trump was *way* behind after the 1st debate, closing much of the gap only late, when many news orgs' models said movement was no longer possible and they had stopped looking seriously at new polling. Those that continued to poll and/or watch polls after the last debate clearly saw Hillary's lead evaporating, but they were in the minority of the voices being heard.

And he was way behind after the bus video too.  The gap seemed to close when Comey re-visited the e-mail case.  

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56 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

The gap seemed to close when Comey re-visited the e-mail case.

A fact that Trumpers have conveniently forgotten about.

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