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The 2018 Detroit Tigers Season (Already In Progress)

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21 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

Two sides to the coin with the way the market is changing though. Even if the market isn't what it used to be, you still don't control whether the player signs, and if he won't the return trade value on one year rentals is getting even worse. You can try to depend on deadline deals, which have better yield, but they may or not be there for a player when you are faced with having to move him.

But you lose little to nothing if the guy walks and you just sign a replacement from the pool (maybe even the guy himself).

I think a lot more players will be happy to sign an extension prior to their final year, lest they end up like mike moustakas or the like. 

Regardless, there are five more years of candelario after this one. Plenty of time to make a decision.

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57 minutes ago, kdog said:

Better to trade them early in some cases. Iglesias is basically bricked at this point as an asset. At $6 million in the last year of arb, he has no value at all.

This is where the arbitration process benefits players like Iglesias, as he never would have gotten that much money on the open market.  Look at Alcides Escobar, earned $6.5 million his last  year of arbitration, granted free agency and only signed a 1-year deal worth $2.5 million.  Iglesias will follow a similar pattern.

The move I would have made was to non-tender Iglesias a contract and let him be a free agent 1 year sooner, retained Kinsler at 2B and used Machado at SS.  Since the Tigers essentially got nothing in return for Kinsler, nothing gained or lost here.  This would have cost the Tigers around $6 million more, but that could have been offset by not signing Fiers.  Of course with Norris on the DL, that would have put the Tigers down 1 starting pitcher, but that was an unknown factor at the time.  Blaine Hardy has been a surprisingly good SP for Toledo, so he would probably be in the rotation right now given these circumstances.  Who knows if the Tigers would be worse off because of it.

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There was no way to predict Hardy would do well and we don't know if it is sustainable or just a hot stretch players go on.

Further Fiers is the kind of guy, like Liriano, a team like the Tigers should take a flier on.  He eats innings so guys can develop in the minors and if he does well (like Liriano), you try to sell him off at the deadline.  If he doesn't do well, and you want to slide someone else in the rotation, you move him to the bullpen or release him.  Nothing lost, possible upside.

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6 minutes ago, bobrob2004 said:

This is where the arbitration process benefits players like Iglesias, as he never would have gotten that much money on the open market.  Look at Alcides Escobar, earned $6.5 million his last  year of arbitration, granted free agency and only signed a 1-year deal worth $2.5 million.  Iglesias will follow a similar pattern.

The move I would have made was to non-tender Iglesias a contract and let him be a free agent 1 year sooner, retained Kinsler at 2B and used Machado at SS.  Since the Tigers essentially got nothing in return for Kinsler, nothing gained or lost here.  This would have cost the Tigers around $6 million more, but that could have been offset by not signing Fiers.  Of course with Norris on the DL, that would have put the Tigers down 1 starting pitcher, but that was an unknown factor at the time.  Blaine Hardy has been a surprisingly good SP for Toledo, so he would probably be in the rotation right now given these circumstances.  Who knows if the Tigers would be worse off because of it.

Having watched Machado at 2b, he's would be a step down from Jose at SS. The Tigers are in a place they can live with that now - but again, it goes to how bad a team will any GM be willing to put on the field? And Kinsler is sporting a 538 OPS this season, though he hasn't made any errors.

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Pope Morosi covering himself saying nothing:

Quote

Michael Fulmer starts tonight against the #Rangers , and I expect scouts to follow him closely, if they aren’t already. Source told me #Tigers are prepared to engage in trade discussions on Fulmer at the deadline but aren’t motivated to move him.

 

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2 hours ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

I don't know as that Iglesias ever has had much surplus value in trade.

The Tigers traded Garcia for him and he's going to be a superstar.  

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11 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

The Tigers traded Garcia for him and he's going to be a superstar.  

The bigger problem with trading for Iglesias was that they let peralta walk for nothing, and traded Suarez for nothing. And with the way DD operates, having Iglesias may have made him more willing to trade adames along with smyly to get price. 

Quick, Nate Robertson will be a free agent ina couple years, better lock him up. 

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Yeah - there was a whole chain of events that really ended up poorly for the Tigers in retrospect.

Jhonny testing positive for PEDs was the beginning of the end.

Discuss.

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I would have liked to keep Garcia in the system. Or at least used him as a trade chip for an actually good player. If we don’t have prince in the fold, golden boy castellanos doesn’t have to be pushed into the outfield and ahead of Garcia in the pecking order at the time. 

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My trade everyone with a pulse philosophy has some drawbacks. You still need to field a team in '19 and '20. Besides Fulmer, I'm not sure how much value you are getting anyway. On the other hand, just drafting and developing is going to take time and might end up terribly.

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Not really about the tigers, but do we have the worst collection of hacks covering our team in all of baseball? I think there is a good chance. Mccosky and sipple and fenech and Paul are all so bad. Henning is such a diva. 

At least we have Dickerson. 

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Henning just wrote an article about why Stewart will stay in the minors this year until September, which covered the main points and was useful as far as that goes, but then makes a unnecessary dig on Nick Castellanos' arm, and, of course, and unnecessarily whined about Comerica Park's spacious LF.

Don't ever change, Lynn.

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1 minute ago, kdog said:

My trade everyone with a pulse philosophy has some drawbacks. You still need to field a team in '19 and '20. Besides Fulmer, I'm not sure how much value you are getting anyway. On the other hand, just drafting and developing is going to take time and might end up terribly.

The system lacks a stud like moncada or eloy or acuna. But it does have a very deep collection of guys that project to be solid players. That’s a lot better than the past. No team can plan to just draft and develop. Everyone needs some luck. Maybe the tigers will get some get some luck. But simply having solid players across the board will allow them to target certain spots once they get within range of a competitive team. 

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Deadline trade potential rests with Liriano , Martin , Greene and Fullmer with the last two requiring a good return. Not much coming unless they move Fulmer which is obviously offset by his loss. 

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The only thing that annoys me is how the Tigers have traded, or lost for nothing, a ton of good players with nothing to show for it, and still have a terrible payroll situation. It's not that they traded the wrong guys so much as that they didn't get the right players in return. 

Off the top of my head in the past few years we have:

Verlander: too soon to tell, looks like a good return, but with how he's pitching now it's hard to imagine he wasn't worth a more sure thing top prospect type. 

JD: too soon to tell, looks bad so far imo 

Wilson/Avila: Good trade, candelario probably isn't as good as he seems so far, but for what we gave up, this is great. 

Porcello/cespedes: another good one, at this point Fulmer kind of reminds me of young Rick porcello, so that's a nice time machine move 

Scherzer: Nothing 

David Price: Looks bad so far, Boyd is a back end guy, Norris better turn it around soon, essentially this also cost us Adamles who is looking awesome at the moment 

Suarez: indefensibly bad trade, clearly terrible from the start 

Kinsler: nothing 

J-Up: nothing 

So it's not even that the hit rate is bad so much as that none of them hit big. That's four ace pitchers, three all star type outfielders, and likely two starting shortstop given up and your return so far is a #2 starter, Candelario, and a few ok prospects. 

Honestly this shows how tight the margins are in MLB. Imagine this is all the same, but the Tigers don't make the Iglesias trade, still have Suarez, and Norris was the ace we hoped he'd be. Maybe due to this, the Tigers don't sign Zimmermann, and can pick up a outfielder (or re-sign JD?) with the money. With the way the central is looking, that's a playoff contender. 

Instead, they suck. 

I don't know, I guess that's pretty obvious, but when you're giving up hall of fame level talent you just have to get the trades right. 

 

Edit: a step further, I'll say maybe we don't trade Verlander if this happens so 

Verlander, alternate reality Norris, Fulmer, Boyd, whoever. That's a world series rotation for sure. 

So basically it's all Daniel Norris' fault. 

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15 minutes ago, pyrotigers said:

The only thing that annoys me is how the Tigers have traded, or lost for nothing, a ton of good players with nothing to show for it,

Good summary Pyro. 

I'd pick a nit on Kinsler. I think he is/was pretty much done. I think Tiger fans overestimated his value at the end of last yr. Still, it was a great trade to get the rest of his career value for Fielder so no complaint on Kinsler overall.

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2 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

Having watched Machado at 2b, he's would be a step down from Jose at SS. The Tigers are in a place they can live with that now - but again, it goes to how bad a team will any GM be willing to put on the field? And Kinsler is sporting a 538 OPS this season, though he hasn't made any errors.

Yes, Kinsler has a 51 OPS+ and Iglesias has a 48 OPS+, virtually no difference.  I would have rather kept Kinsler though because of his leadership qualities.  I think he would have helped out a lot with the younger players, more so than Iglesias.  

But it's all just Monday morning quarterbacking.  

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1 hour ago, pyrotigers said:

The only thing that annoys me is how the Tigers have traded, or lost for nothing, a ton of good players with nothing to show for it, and still have a terrible payroll situation. It's not that they traded the wrong guys so much as that they didn't get the right players in return. 

Off the top of my head in the past few years we have:

Verlander: too soon to tell, looks like a good return, but with how he's pitching now it's hard to imagine he wasn't worth a more sure thing top prospect type. 

JD: too soon to tell, looks bad so far imo 

Wilson/Avila: Good trade, candelario probably isn't as good as he seems so far, but for what we gave up, this is great. 

Porcello/cespedes: another good one, at this point Fulmer kind of reminds me of young Rick porcello, so that's a nice time machine move 

Scherzer: Nothing 

David Price: Looks bad so far, Boyd is a back end guy, Norris better turn it around soon, essentially this also cost us Adamles who is looking awesome at the moment 

Suarez: indefensibly bad trade, clearly terrible from the start 

Kinsler: nothing 

J-Up: nothing 

So it's not even that the hit rate is bad so much as that none of them hit big. That's four ace pitchers, three all star type outfielders, and likely two starting shortstop given up and your return so far is a #2 starter, Candelario, and a few ok prospects. 

Honestly this shows how tight the margins are in MLB. Imagine this is all the same, but the Tigers don't make the Iglesias trade, still have Suarez, and Norris was the ace we hoped he'd be. Maybe due to this, the Tigers don't sign Zimmermann, and can pick up a outfielder (or re-sign JD?) with the money. With the way the central is looking, that's a playoff contender. 

Instead, they suck. 

I don't know, I guess that's pretty obvious, but when you're giving up hall of fame level talent you just have to get the trades right. 

 

Edit: a step further, I'll say maybe we don't trade Verlander if this happens so 

Verlander, alternate reality Norris, Fulmer, Boyd, whoever. That's a world series rotation for sure. 

So basically it's all Daniel Norris' fault. 

I don’t have issue with the trades in aggregate. It’s the free agent and extension decisions that worry me. 

Extend Victor but not Scherzer. Miggy and Verlander so early and signing Zimmerman, Pelfrey and Lowe. 

Before that it was bad extensions to Willis , Robertson, Easley ...the “you try and trade em” bunch. 

Just forget about extending anyone. Pay in fee agency the full retail for top tier and bargain shop hard for fill ins. Forget the middle. 

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2 hours ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Henning just wrote an article about why Stewart will stay in the minors this year until September, which covered the main points and was useful as far as that goes, but then makes a unnecessary dig on Nick Castellanos' arm, and, of course, and unnecessarily whined about Comerica Park's spacious LF.

Don't ever change, Lynn.

I enjoy reading Lynn when he's been into the grape a bit and starts spinning flowery prose.....other than that he's a pompous ***.  A nice guy usually but a pompous *** nonetheless.

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10 hours ago, pyrotigers said:

Porcello/cespedes: another good one, at this point Fulmer kind of reminds me of young Rick porcello, so that's a nice time machine move 

Rick Porcello's ERA & WHIP his first 3 seasons = 3.96 / 1.34, then 4.92 / 1.39, then 4.75 / 1.41.

Michael Fulmer's ERA & WHIP = 3.06 / 1.12, then 3.83 / 1.15, and before tonight's game 2.80 / 1.27.

 

Conclusion:  Michael Fulmer >>>>>> Rick Porcello.

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12 hours ago, Shelton said:

The system lacks a stud like moncada or eloy or acuna. But it does have a very deep collection of guys that project to be solid players. That’s a lot better than the past. No team can plan to just draft and develop. Everyone needs some luck. Maybe the tigers will get some get some luck. But simply having solid players across the board will allow them to target certain spots once they get within range of a competitive team. 

Yeah, we've got a solid group of prospects that could develop into solid players, and that's something we really lacked during our last run. We simply failed to develop enough depth around the stars we had, our bench and like two or three starters were always pretty terrible. And everytime we did develop one of those guys, like Matt Joyce or Suarez, we traded them away. 

Our lineup was so imbalanced and terribly constructed that the team was always less than the sum of it's individual parts.

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16 hours ago, Shelton said:

The system lacks a stud like moncada or eloy or acuna. But it does have a very deep collection of guys that project to be solid players. That’s a lot better than the past. No team can plan to just draft and develop. Everyone needs some luck. Maybe the tigers will get some get some luck. But simply having solid players across the board will allow them to target certain spots once they get within range of a competitive team. 

Is it a very deep collection compared to other teams?  When I see them ranked as a team, they still seem to be in the bottom third.  They have a number of good pitching prospects, but they are still thin in position players.  

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59 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

Is it a very deep collection compared to other teams?  When I see them ranked as a team, they still seem to be in the bottom third.  They have a number of good pitching prospects, but they are still thin in position players.  

I don’t know wrt rankings relative to other teams. I think the fangraphs article recently mentioned 14 45 FV+ players and said that was really good. 

I think the lack of any high end guys keeps them from being ranked higher. 

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