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The 2018 Detroit Tigers Season (Already In Progress)

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Wilson has has good stretches with low ERAs, but he has never been able to strike batters out.  That almost never works long term.  

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5 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

Wilson has has good stretches with low ERAs, but he has never been able to strike batters out.  That almost never works long term.  

and successful low K relievers have to be even rarer than successful low K starters.

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1 hour ago, tiger337 said:

Wilson has has good stretches with low ERAs, but he has never been able to strike batters out.  That almost never works long term.  

True that ..and I agree.  But to compare him to Zimmerman is not accurate. 

 

The stats are what they are.

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8 hours ago, Tigrrfan said:

True that ..and I agree.  But to compare him to Zimmerman is not accurate. 

 

The stats are what they are.

The sole basis of the comparison was they were both good until they weren't, so maybe looking at past performance isn't as good a justification moving forward as is being suggested.

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10 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

The sole basis of the comparison was they were both good until they weren't, so maybe looking at past performance isn't as good a justification moving forward as is being suggested.

Perhaps you are right.  But Zimmerman was good until his neck injury.  At this point, we do not know whether A Wilson may be suffering from injury or not.  In fact, looking at past performance, ..it could easily be discerned that he is just going through one of his typical terrible months.  Again, he could go the next 2 months with under 2.00 ERA.

But again, ..maybe he'll never be good again.  It seems to have happened to too many Tiger pitchers over the years that they are very good and then all of a sudden are very bad.  Relatively recent good-to-terrible could include Valverde, Nathan, Sanchez, Zimmerman, ..perhaps now Wilson?  

Time will tell.

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If Wilson is injured, it makes the comparison more apt.

Setting that aside, Wilson's past success could be just as easily argued as small sample size variability that comes with relieving, his peripherals do not support long term success, and water is merely reaching its level now.

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Valverde, Nathan. Rodriguez were clearly at the end of their careers, so no recovery from becoming bad was to be expected. Probably also true for Sanchez as well (he had a lot of surgery early in his career - arm is probably older than its calendar years....). as noted, Zimmerman now has a chronic back/neck issue which is almost certainly affecting him whether he says he's OK or not.

Starting with his age 28 season, Wilson pitched three seasons over 60 IP as a reliever. While relievers in the modern era never provide great sample sizes for stats, the one number that doesn't look good for Alex is that his WHIP increased in each those years, from 1.03 -> 1.21 -> 1.38, driven primarily by an increase in H/IP. OTOH, he is only 31, which is not particularly old for a pitcher, and his average FB velocity has not shown any decay. He is throwing pretty much the same balance of pitch types with the same break numbers as ever.

So subject to the sample limitations inherent with relievers, his available data is basically a mixed bag in terms of predicting any trend for him. Most numbers say his arm is still fine, but not so much his WHIP - which is a pretty important number for a reliever. And he has never had a good K rate. It has drifted up, but I'm not sure it's by significantly  more  than the underlying league wide trend. Could be he is just a guy that hitters have been able to learn as they have seen him more. If that is true, maybe his patterns are too predictable, or maybe at some point he will have to try something new just to change things up for hitters.

Or he is just a pretty mediocre guy and the rest is all noise.*

 

*right answer

 

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On 4/26/2018 at 7:17 AM, BoomGaspar said:

RIP George Alusik.

55-261Fr.jpg105369-15195529Fr.jpg.70a2ac60ddc76f07e46787515b537105.jpg

In these pictures it looks like he is plotting ways to kill people.

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9 minutes ago, Biff Mayhem said:

In these pictures it looks like he is plotting ways to kill people.

Now I know where my father must have lost one of the many pairs of glasses he had to replace over the years.....

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On 4/26/2018 at 9:54 AM, tiger337 said:

George was not actually a player. 

Correct, he was a playa.

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10 hours ago, Tigrrfan said:

Perhaps you are right.  But Zimmerman was good until his neck injury.  At this point, we do not know whether A Wilson may be suffering from injury or not.  In fact, looking at past performance, ..it could easily be discerned that he is just going through one of his typical terrible months.  Again, he could go the next 2 months with under 2.00 ERA.

But again, ..maybe he'll never be good again.  It seems to have happened to too many Tiger pitchers over the years that they are very good and then all of a sudden are very bad.  Relatively recent good-to-terrible could include Valverde, Nathan, Sanchez, Zimmerman, ..perhaps now Wilson?  

Time will tell.

Honestly Zimm's start to 2016 was mostly smoke and mirrors. Even before his injury that year his k rate was a career low, his bb rate was the highest it been in years and his velo was way down.  His start was entirely due to babip luck much like Greene the year before.

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I know it looks bad that they are in a scoring slump, but low scoring baseball games are not rare - I just look at this team and how bad the pitching is and feel like even with Faedo and Burrows and Perez this team could draft 4 more pitchers 1-1, 2-1 in the '18 and '19 drafts and still have trouble fielding a quality  MBL  staff by 2021.

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12 hours ago, Biff Mayhem said:

In these pictures it looks like he is plotting ways to kill people.

Yes, there's no question about that.  It's easy to picture him in his white lab coat, working towards synthesizing anabolic steroids as mentioned previously, and then accidentally finding a chemical way to kill all of the girls who laughed at him in high school.  And you know, there isn't any proof that he didn't actually do it.

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Keuchel lost again tonight. He's now 1-4. Houston has scored one run in each of his losses. Maybe we can persuade Houston to take back Fiers since his teammates obviously must not like Dallas.  📉

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Here's some video of Paredes:

He's been doing really well in Lakeland so far this year hitting .275/.358/.507 for a 137 wRC+ with a 3 HRs, 5 2Bs, and a 3B in 81 PAs. Has a solid 8.8 BB% and 19.6 K% as well. He was the youngest in the Midwest league last year and is the youngest in the Florida State league as well. According the BA he's the 3rd youngest player across the three high A leagues at 19 years and 2 months.

Has always had good walk and strikeout rates throughout his career but it's really encouraging to see his raw power start to translate in game. If he keeps this up he should be a unanimous top 100 prospect on all the midseason list. 

Getting him and Jeimer for Wilson and Avila looking like a coup. Wilson has been brutal for the Cubs. 

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2 hours ago, TigerNation said:

Getting Paredes and Jeimer for Wilson and Avila looking like a coup. Wilson has been brutal for the Cubs. 

How stacked were the Cubs to be willing to part with those two? 

Or... What did they miss or what did they not tell us? 

The more I see Paredes, the more I think he's going to be special. Maybe that's just because we never have good hitting prospects; I don't know. 

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26 minutes ago, Walewander said:

How stacked were the Cubs to be willing to part with those two? 

Or... What did they miss or what did they not tell us? 

The more I see Paredes, the more I think he's going to be special. Maybe that's just because we never have good hitting prospects; I don't know. 

Jeimer was blocked by Bryant at 3rd, and Rizzo and Baez are locked in at second and first for a while. There's a good chance Paredes will have to move off of SS long term as well, so they are stacked at the positions these guys will likely play.

But the Cubs love trading prospects for RPs at the deadline. They traded Gleyber Torres for 3 months of Chapman.

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4 hours ago, Walewander said:

How stacked were the Cubs to be willing to part with those two? 

Or... What did they miss or what did they not tell us? 

The more I see Paredes, the more I think he's going to be special. Maybe that's just because we never have good hitting prospects; I don't know. 

Theo has been spending top prospects like a drunken sailor. He gave up Gleyber Torres to rent Aroldis Chapman for three months and Chapman went right back to the Yankees. And he sent Eloy Jimenez and Dylan Cease and two other guys for Jose Quintana, who has been spotty at best this year. Theo probably could have gotten a better deal, but his strength may not be in dealing prospects for stars. 

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11 hours ago, chasfh said:

Theo has been spending top prospects like a drunken sailor. He gave up Gleyber Torres to rent Aroldis Chapman for three months and Chapman went right back to the Yankees. And he sent Eloy Jimenez and Dylan Cease and two other guys for Jose Quintana, who has been spotty at best this year. Theo probably could have gotten a better deal, but his strength may not be in dealing prospects for stars. 

So.... get him drunk and nostolgic and ask him what he wats for Martinez?  How many Zimas to get him to make a trade?

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What has gotten into Blaine Hardy?  Not only is he starting, but he’s become the Clayton Kershaw of the International League. 

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