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The 2018 Detroit Tigers Season (Already In Progress)

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11 minutes ago, kdog said:

If the WBC didn't get Cabrera, the regular season would have. He's got bulging disks and they weren't going to get better b/c he played a few extra games in March.

“Since the World Baseball Classic when I hurt my back, I can’t get it out of the way,” Cabrera told MLive in June. “It’s something that I deal with everyday. I’m not going to stop playing or make an excuse. I try to do my best.”

Unnecessary risks sometimes produce regrettable results.

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26 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

The discussion, as I understood it, was that it was worth bunting the guy to second if the guy at the plate sucked and the guys after him could really hit.

I agree that is worth pursuing in that instance, but rarely are there instances where there is a guy on first with no one out, a poor hitter but good bunter at the plate and the guy on deck is a legitimately good hitter.

One reason it is rare is good hitters are bunched together and poor hitters are bunched together.  Basically the options are #9 to #1 or if a team uses a poor hitter at #2 because he puts the ball in play a lot and plays middle infield.  Those are really the only spots that bunting to set up a legitimately better hitter seems likely.

Even if the second/third hitter in this scenario isn’t that good, it could still be more helpful (or less harmful) that the matrix suggests to sacrifice when the hitter doing the sacrifice is rather poor. That’s all I have been trying to point out. 

If you have a few poor hitters in a row and a guy on first, it probably will take two hits or a walk then a hit to score that runner from first. 

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9 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

My sense of it is even if it is beneficial, it isn't significant.

Agreed. I’m not even saying it is beneficial. Just that it may not be significantly harmful either when the bunter is a poor hitter. 

If something is close enough to a coin flip when it comes to small sequence of individual trials, I don’t really care which decision is made. 

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I agree.

I do care if I have to hear Rod Allen yammer on about it because Rod Allen, but also because it is a reasonable guess I will hear about it during water cooler time because Rod yammered on about it.

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13 hours ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

The discussion, as I understood it, was that it was worth bunting the guy to second if the guy at the plate sucked and the guys after him could really hit.

I think you were taking it more broadly than I was. I was simply looking at the single AB after a leadoff man, any leadoff man has reached. I am looking that what happens to the run expectancy difference for putting that man at second and giving up the out. I'm not making any assumption/projection about the 3/4 hitters in the inning. I'm assuming they are hitting away to the best of their ability no matter what the #2 hitter did ( although of course #3 might get walked after a sacrifice).  Let just say for the sake of argument that the run expectancy is identical for one on, no out and man on 2nd one out (they are close for the single run case - the small diff doesn't matter to the basic theory of the argument). So the question is whether, with a very good hitter up in the 2 spot that inning, your true expectancy isn't better than than the average, whereas with a lousy hitter up (but one that can bunt) your true expectancy if he doesn't bunt is lower than the average expectancy, in which case it will also be lower than the the expectancy if  he lays down the bunt (shifting the situation to the man on 2nd, one out case), thus he should bunt. 

Now of course there are lots of confounding issues just around the failure to get the bunt down. If you give up a strike or two trying and failing, then having the bad hitter end up facing an 0--2 count is definitely bad for run expectancy!

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I understand there are situations it is absolutely defensible to attempt a sacrifice and there are (more -> many more) situations where attempting a bunt is less than optimal strategy.

Is that what is being discussed or argued?  I would have thought that was understood prior to the discussion.

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12 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

I understand there are situations it is absolutely defensible to attempt a sacrifice and there are (more -> many more) situations where attempting a bunt is less than optimal strategy.

Is that what is being discussed or argued?  I would have thought that was understood prior to the discussion.

I think there are many that would say a sac bunt is never defensible. I’ve definitely seen that argument. I think that position gains a lot of support because it is so common to see the criticism from the Keith Law and Dave Cameron types when a manager attempts a sac bunt, so their legion of #smrt baseball followers adopt it as gospel that thou shall not bunt. 

Of course, that’s probably true in 95% of various potential scenarios, so whatever. But you end up with people that won’t even consider the possibility that it may be a decent move in some limited situations. 

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3 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Hey, look: a devil we know has become available.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/05/alex-presley-opt-out-clause-orioles.html 

With Martin down, we currently don't have a LHB outfielder on the roster, and with Mikie Mahtook basically turning into a pumpkin, the Tigers might be interested in a second one even with Martin back.

Come on now, they have the deuce biding his time in Toledo, and gerber already on the 40. And we’ve got Stewart waiting patiently until castellanos breaks his hand or injures himself shaving his goatee. 

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Tuned in to the Carolina Mudcat’s game tonight as they were playing the Down East Wood Ducks, the High A Texas Rangers affiliate. The DH for the Rangers affiliate was none other than Anthony Gose. As Jim would say, you can’t make this up! 

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Just watched JV pitch a complete game 2-0 shutout vs. Angels.  He may be better now than at any point in his Tiger career including 2011.

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46 minutes ago, motown blues said:

Just watched JV pitch a complete game 2-0 shutout vs. Angels.  He may be better now than at any point in his Tiger career including 2011.

I has a sad.

So the interesting thing that JV has changed in Houston for this season is that he is throwing the lowest % of GB in his career, and by a large margin -  but also the lowest LD%. He throwing the FB a lot, throwing it up, and getting a lot of harmless fly balls. You might square him up for a HR, but that is about the only you can beat him this year - you are not going to string together hits against him too often.

He is completely repudiating the theory of get guys to hit GBs and let your IF get them out, but also repudiating the whole current theory of hitting, which is to hit fly balls. JV is saying "Here it is up - hit it in the air if you like, but you are not going to catch up to my FB well enough to square it up.

I saw Nolan Ryan pitch, but never paid that much attention to how he got his outs on balls in play, but the guy JV reminds me of in that regard is McLain, who induced tons of pop-ups and weak fly balls in that brief period when he was just the best there was.

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9 hours ago, motown blues said:

Just watched JV pitch a complete game 2-0 shutout vs. Angels.  He may be better now than at any point in his Tiger career including 2011.

It was a sad morning to read CBS Sports.   JV and JD featured in the baseball round up and a story on a dissatisfied Miggy.

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Just now, LooseGoose said:

It was a sad morning to read CBS Sports.   JV and JD featured in the baseball round up and a story on a dissatisfied Miggy.

Good thing Scherzer didn't pitch yesterday.  

  • Haha 1

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9 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

I has a sad.

So the interesting thing that JV has changed in Houston for this season is that he is throwing the lowest % of GB in his career, and by a large margin -  but also the lowest LD%. He throwing the FB a lot, throwing it up, and getting a lot of harmless fly balls. You might square him up for a HR, but that is about the only you can beat him this year - you are not going to string together hits against him too often.

He is completely repudiating the theory of get guys to hit GBs and let your IF get them out, but also repudiating the whole current theory of hitting, which is to hit fly balls. JV is saying "Here it is up - hit it in the air if you like, but you are not going to catch up to my FB well enough to square it up.

I saw Nolan Ryan pitch, but never paid that much attention to how he got his outs on balls in play, but the guy JV reminds me of in that regard is McLain, who induced tons of pop-ups and weak fly balls in that brief period when he was just the best there was.

Verlander is also throwing his slider a lot more often and his change up a lot less often.  His swinging strike rate of 13.4% is the best of his career.  Not only is he focusing on getting fly balls, but he's focusing on getting strikeouts even more than he was in Detroit.  

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Verlander is never going to succeed pitching for strikeouts like this. He needs to be a team player and pitch to contact. Right now he's a thrower, not a pitcher. 

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4 minutes ago, pyrotigers said:

Verlander is never going to succeed pitching for strikeouts like this. He needs to be a team player and pitch to contact. Right now he's a thrower, not a pitcher. 

Indeed, he needs to be less selfish.

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He should've been moved to the bullpen years ago.   I blame Kate Upton.

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12 hours ago, LooseGoose said:

It was a sad morning to read CBS Sports.   JV and JD featured in the baseball round up and a story on a dissatisfied Miggy.

This just in, JD hit a home run again tonight.  Apparently that's 44 since the All-Star break, with Stanton next at 43.

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In his last 162 games JD has 58 homers

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This team is growing on me, and I can't do anything about it.  Boyd is three more good starts away from earning an all star bid.  Hicks has probably done enough already to earn invites to Tiger fantasy camp in perpetuity.

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On 5/17/2018 at 12:46 AM, Gehringer_2 said:

I has a sad.

So the interesting thing that JV has changed in Houston for this season is that he is throwing the lowest % of GB in his career, and by a large margin -  but also the lowest LD%. He throwing the FB a lot, throwing it up, and getting a lot of harmless fly balls. You might square him up for a HR, but that is about the only you can beat him this year - you are not going to string together hits against him too often.

He is completely repudiating the theory of get guys to hit GBs and let your IF get them out, but also repudiating the whole current theory of hitting, which is to hit fly balls. JV is saying "Here it is up - hit it in the air if you like, but you are not going to catch up to my FB well enough to square it up.

I saw Nolan Ryan pitch, but never paid that much attention to how he got his outs on balls in play, but the guy JV reminds me of in that regard is McLain, who induced tons of pop-ups and weak fly balls in that brief period when he was just the best there was.

I got a little bit of satisfaction watching Price blow his complete game shutout by giving up a two run homer with two outs in the 9th.

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Catching seems to be an underrated need on the trade market. I count at least the Twins, Cardinals, and Red Sox as teams needing an 'upgrade.' As much as McCann sucks, he's an upgrade for a few of those teams.

Also Boyd would seem to be the perfect second tier starter that can get you a decent prospect haul for teams who don't want to operate in the Fulmer market.

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