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Al Avila on analytics...

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1 hour ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

What is the quality of analytics for most players they are scouting?

I understand if they are evaluating a MLB player for trade, the available analytics are consistent and reliable.  But some high school kid in South Carolina or Oklahoma?  A prospect playing in Venezuela?  Someone in low A-ball?

Maybe at the high school or international level, analytics are less about stats generated in games and more about process? Pitch speed they already do with radar guns, but maybe also pitch movement, pitch location, pop times, release times, pickoff times, launch angles, exit velocity, throw accuracy, etc. Maybe it's objectively measuring the kinds of things scouts just used to guess at? 

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1 hour ago, tiger337 said:

OK.  They may very well do a rank ordering of the both lists and add them together.  I actually think it's more useful to have two lists which may be why I interpreted the comments as I did.  

Yes, but Avila says they then bake the lists into a bottom line number, or something like that, which I don't like because it mixes subjective judgments and objective data.

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3 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Maybe at the high school or international level, analytics are less about stats generated in games and more about process? Pitch speed they already do with radar guns, but maybe also pitch movement, pitch location, pop times, release times, pickoff times, launch angles, exit velocity, throw accuracy, etc. Maybe it's objectively measuring the kinds of things scouts just used to guess at? 

I would have thought much of that type of data has collected the past 10 years, if not longer.

Maybe the data aggregation is improved and summarizing the results an easier task.

Is launch angle / exit velocity / pitch movement / pitch location accurately measured / recorded at high school games or most international games or most college games?  Honest question.

 

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Just now, chasfh said:

Yes, but Avila says they then bake the lists into a bottom line number, or something like that, which I don't like because it mixes subjective judgments and objective data.

At some point a final list has to be made, and I would expect that every team's draft list has subjective and objective elements incorporated into it.

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1 minute ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

I would have thought that has been the case for at least 10 years, if not longer.

Maybe the data aggregation is improved and summarizing the results an easier task.

The tools they use, or at least could be using, are certainly better and probably measure more attributes as well.

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3 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

At some point a final list has to be made, and I would expect that every team's draft list has subjective and objective elements incorporated into it.

Avila makes it sound, to me at least, that they input scouting rankings into the analytics system, and then disregard the results that don't already comport with their current thinking. I admit I could be misunderstanding that, but that's how it reads to me.

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1 minute ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Is the better data able to be collected at most high school / college / international games?

Maybe, but I don't know where the cutting edge of amateur scouting is. Seems possible to me, though.

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6 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Avila makes it sound, to me at least, that they input scouting rankings into the analytics system, and then disregard the results that don't already comport with their current thinking. I admit I could be misunderstanding that, but that's how it reads to me.

I think you are reading into his comments something that isn't there.

He said they occasionally have a player rated higher than seems to make sense as an example of the system not being perfect.

I have seen this sort of thing happen in the limited experience I have with doing analytics in design analysis.  Analytics absolutely can return a bad result based on the assumptions baked into it, and it is good practice to rigorously evaluate the output and dismiss a given result if it clearly is a mistake.

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6 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Maybe, but I don't know where the cutting edge of amateur scouting is. Seems possible to me, though.

I would think that unlikely at most fields at the amateur level.

I'd be curious to get Microline's take.

 

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7 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

I think you are reading into his comments something that isn't there.

He said they occasionally have a player rated higher than seems to make sense as an example of the system not being perfect.

I have seen this sort of thing happen in the limited experience I have with doing analytics in design analysis.  Analytics absolutely can return a bad result based on the assumptions baked into it, and it is good practice to rigorously evaluate the output and dismiss a given result if it clearly is a mistake.

Absolutely, analytical results should never be taken on blind faith, and as long as they have the proper qualifications to determine which results don't pass the smell test, they should disregard them.

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16 hours ago, chasfh said:

OK, looking at the lemonade side, the team is in such a state that Gardenhire's batting order means literally nothing.

But it says everything about the org's lack of desire to be progressive. 

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I think it is more a reflection on Ron than the org.

But I think Ron is just a placeholder and not necessarily aligned with the front office.

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5 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

I think it is more a reflection on Ron than the org.

But I think Ron is just a placeholder and not necessarily aligned with the front office.

That may be, but I doubt he would take this job if he felt he was just a placeholder. I guess we'll see. 

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I'm don't know whether the front office believes Ron Gardenhire will be the manager of the eventual rebuilt world champion Tigers, but I wouldn't bet against his views being aligned with those of the front office. I believe the Tigers really like the cut of his jib. They may even be pinching themselves in disbelief that such a managerial talent just fell into their laps.

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1 hour ago, Charles Liston said:

I hate it when you submit a wad of punch cards 2 inches thick, and find out the next day that your program bombed because of a mistake on the first card.

The simulator was about 2 feet worth. We lived in fear of just dropping the box and having to re-sort.

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1 hour ago, chasfh said:

I'm don't know whether the front office believes Ron Gardenhire will be the manager of the eventual rebuilt world champion Tigers, but I wouldn't bet against his views being aligned with those of the front office. I believe the Tigers really like the cut of his jib. They may even be pinching themselves in disbelief that such a managerial talent just fell into their laps.

I am a cup is half-full type person, otherwise I would have to hang myself.

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1 hour ago, Gehringer_2 said:

The simulator was about 2 feet worth. We lived in fear of just dropping the box and having to re-sort.

I was lucky.  I only had to use cards in my BASIC programming course in HS in 1980.  So, it was just another annoying class I had to take.  If I ever had to use them on a job, I would have gone insane.  

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I think Gardenhire is there because he's the safest choice.  Maybe they also think he's the best guy to work with young players.  He's a 'name'.  The organization doesn't care if they win or lose in 2018 or 2019.  They didn't want another rookie manager.  Gardenhire was a manager for a long time and he got fired and probably wants to still be a manager so he took this job. He can then probably go out on his terms.

Front Office doesn't want to "deal with" the manager or questions on who the manager is or will be... they can just leave that alone now for the foreseeable future.

 

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I agree with oblong -Gardy is probably a good manager for young players at the beginning of their development in the majors.

-I also think he's a stabilizing force who can deal with Cabrera and other high priced vets while the team is in transtion.

He isn't going to progressive with analytics or usage of players. 

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32 minutes ago, kdog said:

I agree with oblong -Gardy is probably a good manager for young players at the beginning of their development in the majors.

-I also think he's a stabilizing force who can deal with Cabrera and other high priced vets while the team is in transtion.

He isn't going to progressive with analytics or usage of players. 

Always start by teachin' them the old way of "playin' ball," the way the game is supposed to be played. 

Yeah. That's what progressive teams do. If you can't slap the ball to the right side, you ain't hittin' dingers on my team. 

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Just now, Yoda said:

Always start by teachin' them the old way of "playin' ball," the way the game is supposed to be played. 

Yeah. That's what progressive teams do. If you can't slap the ball to the right side, you ain't hittin' dingers on my team. 

They really don't have any premium position players within striking distance of the majors. I guess Candy is a good test case but he seems to be fully formed from the time with his cubs.

I think the majority of the development work will be done by Bosio with the young pitchers in the near future.

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4 minutes ago, kdog said:

They really don't have any premium position players within striking distance of the majors. I guess Candy is a good test case but he seems to be fully formed from the time with his cubs.

I think the majority of the development work will be done by Bosio with the young pitchers in the near future.

Agreed. He's not going to mess with Stewart's approach. I think Rogers will be here next season. But he and Candy are about it for the next couple years at least barring a deadline trade. 

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The guys Gardhenhire will be "helping" are not going to be the ones here when the rebuild is supposedly done.

 

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37 minutes ago, Yoda said:

Always start by teachin' them the old way of "playin' ball," the way the game is supposed to be played. 

Yeah. That's what progressive teams do. If you can't slap the ball to the right side, you ain't hittin' dingers on my team. 

What is the 'new/progressive' way to actually play the game?

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