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Al Avila on analytics...

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31 minutes ago, Oblong said:

I think we're reading too much into his quote or description.

He was being very generic.  I think his point was "We use scouting data and analytical data and try to put the two together for a ranking system.  We're doing something we haven't always done here...".

It's something I imagine 29 other clubs do too.   They just have different methodologies.  

I would be surprised to learn that the most analytics-forward organizations—e.g., Cubs, Dodgers, Astros—input subjective scouting rankings into their analytics system, give it equal weight with on-field performance data, and blend it all into a bottom line number they sometimes disregard. None of us know for sure because we don't have the relevant bit.

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I don't think it was suggested anyone gives them equal weight?

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Oblong said:

I don't think it was suggested anyone gives them equal weight?

 

 

It wasn't before I made my post, but absent the relevant bit, it wouldn't surprise me.

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17 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I would be surprised to learn that the most analytics-forward organizations—e.g., Cubs, Dodgers, Astros—input subjective scouting rankings into their analytics system, give it equal weight with on-field performance data, and blend it all into a bottom line number they sometimes disregard. None of us know for sure because we don't have the relevant bit.

I would be shocked if analytic based orgs don't use subjective scouting to drive a lot of their prospect rankings and draft analysis. I don't think it's possible that quantifiable statistics give you a complete picture.

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I doubt their analytic system includes observational scouting reports in the algorithm.  Avila was probably just trying to say that they look at both in making decisions which is what all organizations do.  

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Pay attention to what Al does, not what he says. 

He hired an old-school manager who just **** all over analytics two days ago. To be fair, you have to look at what Ron does and not what he says also, but so far he's had Martin/Igggy 1 and 2 in every game. Because one guy is fast and the other can make contact.

I'm not optimistic at this point. 

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11 minutes ago, Yoda said:

Pay attention to what Al does, not what he says. 

He hired an old-school manager who just **** all over analytics two days ago. To be fair, you have to look at what Ron does and not what he says also, but so far he's had Martin/Igggy 1 and 2 in every game. Because one guy is fast and the other can make contact.

I'm not optimistic at this point. 

It is kind of difficult to see Martin & Iglesias up top with Mahtook & Candelario down low and think that this is an optimal lineup.  Maybe they are trying to get Martin & Iglesias to work on things and they feel Mahtook & Candelario are established enough with the bats to not the extra game action PAs?  I don't know, that's probably more hope than not.

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37 minutes ago, Yoda said:

Pay attention to what Al does, not what he says. 

He hired an old-school manager who just **** all over analytics two days ago. To be fair, you have to look at what Ron does and not what he says also, but so far he's had Martin/Igggy 1 and 2 in every game. Because one guy is fast and the other can make contact.

I'm not optimistic at this point. 

with help from the enablers in the media. Hackosky's tweets this weekend were an embarassment.

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1 hour ago, tiger337 said:

I doubt their analytic system includes observational scouting reports in the algorithm.  Avila was probably just trying to say that they look at both in making decisions which is what all organizations do.  

Avila basically said in about as many words that it does, although I suppose a good attorney could find wiggle room parsing the words.

 

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3 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Avila basically said in about as many words that it does, although I suppose a good attorney could find wiggle room parsing the words.

 

Avila is not a very polished speaker and it was not clear to me what he meant.  I wouldn't read his words like a legal document.  

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27 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

Avila is not a very polished speaker and it was not clear to me what he meant.  I wouldn't read his words like a legal document.  

Maybe not, but when he says in so many words that scouting reports go into the system, I’ll take him at his word. 

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15 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Maybe not, but when he says in so many words that scouting reports go into the system, I’ll take him at his word. 

He says this:  “We’ve developed a system where our scouting reports come in from our scouts, and those go into our system,”

I took "system" to mean a decision making system which includes analytics and scouting

Then he says:

“We’ve also developed an analytical formula to rank players. We have a ranking of players that’s all based on their numbers., and we have a ranking of the players based on the scouts’ preferences. We mix them together and come up with one list."

I am reading that as two rankings (one based on scouting and one based on numbers) with an overall system.  Then they take both rankings and mix them together, but that doesn't mean they are linked quantitatively.  I see it as discussion where they look at both lists and come up with a final ranking more qualitatively than quantitatively.  I can see how you might take it differently though.      

 

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44 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

He says this:  “We’ve developed a system where our scouting reports come in from our scouts, and those go into our system,”

I took "system" to mean a decision making system which includes analytics and scouting

Then he says:

“We’ve also developed an analytical formula to rank players. We have a ranking of players that’s all based on their numbers., and we have a ranking of the players based on the scouts’ preferences. We mix them together and come up with one list."

I am reading that as two rankings (one based on scouting and one based on numbers) with an overall system.  Then they take both rankings and mix them together, but that doesn't mean they are linked quantitatively.  I see it as discussion where they look at both lists and come up with a final ranking more qualitatively than quantitatively.  I can see how you might take it differently though.      

 

That's some fine parsing there, Lou. :grin:

 

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15 minutes ago, chasfh said:

That's some fine parsing there, Lou. :grin:

 

That is how I read it.  I'm sorry.  

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3 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

That is how I read it.  I'm sorry.  

I read it the other way. I'm sorry, too.

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Avila seems to imply that analytics is being used to judge talent only. It’s not part of changing the strategy or tactics in a game from anything we’ve seen before. They are not going to change batting orders on the basis of analytics or stop sacrifice bunting etc. That’s why Gardenhire was hired and why he says the things he says. 

Maybe Avila is being tricky. Maybe he has something under his sleeve and he doesn’t want to let on what it might be.  I think it’s more likely that what we’re seeing is truly what we will get. 

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I read into that everything matters.

but, in full transparency, I flunked German in High School.

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I don't care what Avila said, but if they actually bat Martin and Iglesias #1 and #2 all season I will post angrily on the internet about it

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5 minutes ago, pyrotigers said:

I don't care what Avila said, but if they actually bat Martin and Iglesias #1 and #2 all season I will post angrily on the internet about it

That's already set in stone.

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9 minutes ago, IdahoBert said:

Avila seems to imply that analytics is being used to judge talent only. It’s not part of changing the strategy or tactics in a game from anything we’ve seen before. They are not going to change batting orders on the basis of analytics or stop sacrifice bunting etc. That’s why Gardenhire was hired and why he says the things he says. 

That's a fair reading, and I can see that.

9 minutes ago, IdahoBert said:

Maybe Avila is being tricky. Maybe he has something under his sleeve and he doesn’t want to let on what it might be.  I think it’s more likely that what we’re seeing is truly what we will get. 

Yup.

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5 minutes ago, pyrotigers said:

I don't care what Avila said, but if they actually bat Martin and Iglesias #1 and #2 all season I will post angrily on the internet about it

OK, looking at the lemonade side, the team is in such a state that Gardenhire's batting order means literally nothing.

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It’s the difference between winning 67 games and winning 69.  Although the latter is indeed preferable. 

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3 minutes ago, chasfh said:

OK, looking at the lemonade side, the team is in such a state that Gardenhire's batting order means literally nothing.

Well yeah, realistically they should probably lose as many games as possible, but I want to be entertained at least a little

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