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HeyAbbott

Pre ST won/loss predictions

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As of today, let's predict the Tiger's won/loss. . Granted , there will be changes, but I think it would be interesting to see where everyone stands today. This is not designed to supercede or replace the annual prediction thread. I just think it would be interesting to see where everyone is at in their thinking. I am rather pessimistic. I see a 57-105 season. I am excluding the "tank factor", hereafter referred to as TF, in my estimate..

The major reasons for the pessimism  are:

Neither Miggy or VMART will produce much. With Miggy being the most likely to return to form.

Fulmer may not have the degree of control he once had after his surgery

No bullpen to speak of

Poor starting pitching.

Weak defensive outfield

Improper lh vs rh balance at the plate

 

 

 

 

 

 

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The gritty young Tigers shock the world - the 1 year rebuild is now the model.

90-72

 

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66-96

 

Yes, actually better than last year when they stopped listening to their manager and started sleepwalking through the season.      When Victor Martinez goes on the disabled list for good around mid-March, it will be the best thing to happen to this team. 

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I think that a couple of players will have better-than-expected seasons.    I think Miggy rebounds quite a bit, Jordan Zimmermann bounces back a little bit.   Mikie Mahtook and Nick Castellanos will have solid less-streaky seasons and both hit over .280.     And I think Daniel Norris is one of the biggest surprises in the American League this year.  I just have a feeling that he's going to have a great year (and of course be traded at the deadline).     The bullpen is still vomit but Shane Greene will be pretty good  and Dixon Machado has a better season than Ian Kinsler did last year.   But that's not saying much........    

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Now that the pressure is off and there are no expectations, I expect some of our slumping veterans like Zimmerman and VMart to have better seasons.  It will be a rough team to watch but I think they will have a better record than we think.  I'll go with 70-92.

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21 hours ago, HeyAbbott said:

As of today, let's predict the Tiger's won/loss. . Granted , there will be changes, but I think it would be interesting to see where everyone stands today. This is not designed to supercede or replace the annual prediction thread. I just think it would be interesting to see where everyone is at in their thinking. I am rather pessimistic. I see a 57-105 season. I am excluding the "tank factor", hereafter referred to as TF, in my estimate..

The major reasons for the pessimism  are:

Neither Miggy or VMART will produce much. With Miggy being the most likely to return to form.

Fulmer may not have the degree of control he once had after his surgery

No bullpen to speak of

Poor starting pitching.

Weak defensive outfield

Improper lh vs rh balance at the plate

Just a couple of modifications:

Fulmer will be healthy, will have a fine comeback season, for the Yankees.

Cabrera's off field issues lead to .......another DUI and suspension. He will then hurt the back again in an anger fueled power lifting session during his suspension.

Victor leads the team in RBI at the ASB, with 35.

I see a 333 team. I guess that would be 54/108.

 - yeah, not in a good mood this morning.

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The tigers will win at least 70 games. That is assuming that guys like fulmer and castellanos aren’t traded. I’m not sure that’s a great assumption, but whatever. 

I think Avila would love to trade those guys. Whether or not someone offers enough to justify it, I don’t know. I think Avila will demand quite a bit to trade fulmer, and all it will take is a desperate team at the deadline with the right group of prospects to make it happen. 

Castellanos is tougher one to predict. I think he’s going to have a very good year with the bat. I think moving to the outfield from third base is going to help him mentally. Even though he is going to suck in the outfield, it won’t be as obvious, and I think it’s going to take a lot of pressure off of him. 

So the question will become whether there is a team that values his bat enough to overlook his defensive shortcomings. I don’t think Avila will give him away for an upton or kinsler type return. I think Avila will value his bat enough, and look at that DH spot opening up later this year as a way to keep one of the better hitters in the lineup. 

With the market being down and not kind to bat only guys, he is probably a decent extension candidate that won’t break the bank, and there is some value in having a home grown guy that can hit in the middle of the lineup. I think once victor is gone they will start giving nick more reps at first base.  But for now they will focus on right field and see if he can handle himself out there. 

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1 hour ago, Euphdude said:

Now that the pressure is off and there are no expectations, I expect some of our slumping veterans like Zimmerman and VMart to have better seasons.  It will be a rough team to watch but I think they will have a better record than we think.  I'll go with 70-92.

This is the correct prediction.  

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I'm going 69-93 with the caveat that Fulmer is still with the team at the end. If he's gone, I think it will be because the Tigers tanked the last part of the season and that record will be thrown out the window.

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70-92 seems about right. Rebuilding teams with a few vets poised to rebound some, plus the large pool of talented but inexperienced young players will provide for some fun games and good entertainment. We will have to cherish the small things in 2018, rather than sustained success.

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If 70 wins is a baseline, they just need to get lucky and go 15-5 in one run games instead of 10-10, and then it’s a 75 win team. And then we just need the killer Cs to outperform their baselines and it’s an 80 win team. Top that off with a bounce back from zimmermann and Fiers and steps forward from Norris and Boyd, and this team is in the playoffs. 

Easy.

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3 minutes ago, Shelton said:

If 70 wins is a baseline, they just need to get lucky and go 15-5 in one run games instead of 10-10, and then it’s a 75 win team. And then we just need the killer Cs to outperform their baselines and it’s an 80 win team. Top that off with a bounce back from zimmermann and Fiers and steps forward from Norris and Boyd, and this team is in the playoffs. 

Easy.

There are surprise teams every year.  

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1 hour ago, tiger337 said:

There are surprise teams every year.  

Indeed. 

You never know. It sure would be nice to see the pitchers have a good spring, not that it means much, but it’s better than them having a bad spring. 

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26 minutes ago, Shelton said:

Indeed. 

You never know. It sure would be nice to see the pitchers have a good spring, not that it means much, but it’s better than them having a bad spring. 

The pictures are telling me they're all in great shape.

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Plus, we have Gardenhire now, and he’s probably worth about 5 extra wins or so. 

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I'll go 66-96, with a possibility of eight more wins and a very real possibility of twelve more losses. The 74-88 could happen if Miguel bounces back and Fulmer and Castellanos are on the team the whole year. The 54-108 happens in the opposite situation. I think Norris and Boyd both take steps this year and Candelario puts up a good rookie year.

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2 hours ago, socaltiger said:

74 - 88

I’m going to rearrange the chairs a tad and go with 78-84.

I do believe Cabrera will bounce back provided he has some protection in the line up. I’m expecting Norris to finally be what the Tigers (and myself) have been hoping for. Agree the team will play loose with ground floor expectations. I see Gardenhire as a plus for this team. Bosio should be an improvement for the team as well. 

Watch the minors while hoping for some upside surprises this year. 

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We should trade all of our good players so we lose 100 games and can get high draft picks. Then we can draft good players, maybe. But hey, our payroll will be really small. Lower ticket prices? No, we can't afford reprinting all that paper. Just let the suckers, errrr....fans,  keep paying top dollar to watch AAA players. Idiot fans never look up from their phones anyway.  Ohh...63 and 99.

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2 hours ago, Casimir said:

Didn't Matt Boyd win 20 games last spring training?

With 1 walk ALL spring. And then he walked the very first hitter he faced in the regular season. You just can't make this stuff up. 😁

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