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Is there anything that gives you hope for 2018 (and only 2018)

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My beer guys knows this... wife has a routine where around the 4th inning she goes to get her caramel corn which is on the other side of the stadium.  When he sees her leave he comes by and gets me another one right quick.  What she don't know can't hurt her.  He doesn't even ask.... just suddenly a beer is in front of me. 

That's why we tip well.  Good old Cedric.  That job must pay well because he does hockey and football too.

 

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What gives me hope for this season? Nothing, as this is going to be a 100 loss team. I will watch to see the youngsters develop. As for McCann, Casty, Iglesias, and Fulmer, I will stay tuned to see if they get traded, and what they bring. Given that the target date I have for them returning to the playoffs is 2022, with a world series in 2023, I plan to practice patience.

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We had a bit of a moment from The Office one time... the British Office, not the US one.  In reference to the guy who did the Ali G impersonations.

There were a couple of regular beer vendors, 2 black guys and a handful of white guys.   We're getting antsy for beer.... looking around for one. I see Cedric (one of the black guys) and tell Chuck, "We're good, Cedric's right over there, he saw me..."

"No, Cedric's the other one"

"The other one what?"

Turns out actually both are named Cedric.  Imagine that.  

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5 hours ago, Oblong said:

My beer guys knows this... wife has a routine where around the 4th inning she goes to get her caramel corn which is on the other side of the stadium.  When he sees her leave he comes by and gets me another one right quick.  What she don't know can't hurt her.  He doesn't even ask.... just suddenly a beer is in front of me. 

That's why we tip well.  Good old Cedric.  That job must pay well because he does hockey and football too.

Good friends good beer

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Norris I think will have a surprise season. I think a lot of the fun will be some of the younger guys who have good season, While some of the players we think will do good will fail. It is a good season to separate the wheat from the chaff.

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I would love to see a successful rebuild from our farm system and young acquisitions.  If it's going to work we're going to have one helluva starting rotation.  That would be pretty fun.

Would be nice to see a top young position player in the pipeline too, something along the lines of what Granderson was in 2003.  Daz Cameron might be that guy in a couple of years.

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I'm not sure many fans are prepared for a rebuild attempt. There's a real possibility the Tiger picks ( or development) won't have them contending with just a bad few years. It took from 1987 to 2006 to make the playoffs. I feel bad for some of the names coming thru here in the next few years. They will be obscure trivia questions. 😶

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On 1/21/2018 at 7:13 PM, Gehringer_2 said:

It's Avila that keeps saying he doesn't want to rush guys. If you take him at his word, we are more likely to see temporary AAAA fillers in Detroit instead of A ball leapers. Of course, the pressure of an empty ballpark might have some impact on this thinking eventually.

Is there a big discount on season tickets yet? Payroll was at about $200 million and now it's half of that? Ticket, parking and concessions should all be less expensive. But...they won't be.

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I'm hopeful for the kind of enjoyable ballpark experience ala 2000-2005. Won't be the "same" because I was a kid then, but it's a different ballpark experience from when they're good. 

Having a section, or even a row to yourselves is nice in its own way.

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58 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

I'm not sure many fans are prepared for a rebuild attempt. There's a real possibility the Tiger picks ( or development) won't have them contending with just a bad few years. It took from 1987 to 2006 to make the playoffs. I feel bad for some of the names coming thru here in the next few years. They will be obscure trivia questions. 😶

If AA is permitted to continue (as he has already) to fail indefinitely and to take the long road back (4 - 5+ years), we could easily be in for a long period of bad baseball.  I hope (a) AA has some heretofore hidden talent as a GM or (b) Chris I doesn't wait too long for success or (c) if AA fails, Chris I finds another GM who has the chops to make this work.

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1 hour ago, sabretooth said:

If AA is permitted to continue (as he has already) to fail indefinitely and to take the long road back (4 - 5+ years), we could easily be in for a long period of bad baseball.  I hope (a) AA has some heretofore hidden talent as a GM or (b) Chris I doesn't wait too long for success or (c) if AA fails, Chris I finds another GM who has the chops to make this work.

While I’m no AA sympathizer, I do think he did well in his first attempt at selling off vets for prospects.  The trade with the Cubs really looks to lean our way and I’m happy with our yield for JV.  AZ trade was a bit disappointing, but for all of his offensive output, his defensive issues appear to hurt JD’s value, which we’re also seeing in his free agency, if you believe that his only serious suitor is Boston.

The upcoming draft and any deadline deals should give us a better idea of his ability to lead a rebuild.

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32 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

While I’m no AA sympathizer, I do think he did well in his first attempt at selling off vets for prospects.  The trade with the Cubs really looks to lean our way and I’m happy with our yield for JV.  AZ trade was a bit disappointing, but for all of his offensive output, his defensive issues appear to hurt JD’s value, which we’re also seeing in his free agency, if you believe that his only serious suitor is Boston.

The upcoming draft and any deadline deals should give us a better idea of his ability to lead a rebuild.

Yup. I'll be looking for signs that he's going to try and get too cute and/or outsmart the rest of the world with out of left field surprise picks. If we see that we are probably in big trouble. Conventional and steady gets the job done. A consensus top pick may still flame out (Appel) but there are a lot fewer surprises hiding in the bushes today than you could go prospecting for a generation ago.

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The Astros were the worst team in baseball for a long time, but they followed the process, and now they're the best team in baseball. 

 

Follow. The. Process.

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10 hours ago, sabretooth said:

If AA is permitted to continue (as he has already) to fail indefinitely and to take the long road back...

If there is no accountability and no competence in the front office, then yes, we are screwed as fans.

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A full and healthy season from Cedric will go a long way.

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8 hours ago, cruzer1 said:

The Astros were the worst team in baseball for a long time, but they followed the process, and now they're the best team in baseball. 

 

Follow. The. Process.

The Cardinals, Yankees and Red Sox were never horrible and they are good now.  There is no formula.  However, given where the Tigers are now, I would not make any big signing this year.  

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8 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

The Cardinals, Yankees and Red Sox were never horrible and they are good now.  There is no formula.  However, given where the Tigers are now, I would not make any big signing this year.  

The Cardinals are the measuring stick for sustained success, I think. I say that based on market size and probable spend.  I don't think we'll see spending like we did for quite a while.

Beginning in 2000, the Cardinals have made the playoffs in 12 of 18 seasons.  Only 1 season under .500.  Average record of 90-72.  They seem to have had a pretty good mix of development from within and spend when they need to.  If the Tigers could find a way to emulate that.....

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There is no one way to do things.  The Tigers can do it the "right" way and still be competitive this year if they were willing to spend money.  By competitive I mean a .500 team.   Get to .500 and you are within striking distance.  They're not doing it.  But it doesn't sacrifice anything to be willing to do that.  I simply do not buy the narrative that they have no choice.  

The trouble is they are trying to do what the Astros did but they aren't starting from the same place nor do they have the same people.  They are trying to build a better wheel when 20 other organizations are years ahead in the design/build process.   There's a team that will pass the Tigers and they're building something besides the wheel.

If you want to play the same game as everyone else you need better people and since August of 2015 I haven't been convinced the Tigers have people better than anybody else.  He's in Boston now.  We have Johnny Roast Beef showing off his new caddy.

 

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35 minutes ago, Oblong said:

There is no one way to do things.  The Tigers can do it the "right" way and still be competitive this year if they were willing to spend money.  By competitive I mean a .500 team.   Get to .500 and you are within striking distance.  They're not doing it.  But it doesn't sacrifice anything to be willing to do that.  I simply do not buy the narrative that they have no choice.  

The trouble is they are trying to do what the Astros did but they aren't starting from the same place nor do they have the same people.  They are trying to build a better wheel when 20 other organizations are years ahead in the design/build process.   There's a team that will pass the Tigers and they're building something besides the wheel.

If you want to play the same game as everyone else you need better people and since August of 2015 I haven't been convinced the Tigers have people better than anybody else.  He's in Boston now.  We have Johnny Roast Beef showing off his new caddy.

 

While the tigers are behind in the analytics game relative to most teams, I don’t think it is as big of a deal as you are suggesting. 

It’s going to come down to the players in the system now and the players that we add going forward. Either they turn out to be good or they don’t. The Astros and cubs haven’t been perfect. They both embraced the process and played the waiting game, rather than make moves to try to get to .500. It worked for them. It’s worked for other teams, too. And it’s failed for other teams. 

As for whether or not we could have done something differently over the past year to be in position to be competitive is hard to say, but I would lean toward no. We are 20 war behind the angels right now (who of course have two of our players from last season). We are 16 war behind the blue jays. 

All of baseball is treating the tax threshold as a cap right now. We have 60 million to spend before hitting the tax threshold. 

If we kept upton and kinsler, that’s maybe 5 wins better than their replacements. But it’s also about 30 million of salary. If we kept JV, that’s probably 4 wins, but another 18 million in salary. We are still 7 wins behind the blue jays and only 12 million left to spend.

It’s not easy to make up 7 wins. 

And of course, if we had JV, we wouldn’t have three of top 7 prospects in Perez, daz, and Rogers. 

I don’t know. I think the biggest and most crippling mistake was the zimmermann contract and his lack of performance. If we had that money or that performance, then the tigers would have had a chance to add to last year’s team (minus JD) and stay in the race. But that’s just not the case. 

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Last year we were lucky to get the first pick in the draft with only half year of tanking. 2018 will be a full year of misery to do the same. Thats not much time for a rebuild assuming our drafts are good there is no reason we can't be .500 in 2019 and up from there with efficient spending which has proven elusive for AL Avilia but I believe he will do better next time. The key is getting a solid shortstop and with so many teams set at that position there should be someone blocked we can trade for.

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As for trading Fullmer we all want a deal similar to what the white sub got for Sale but I don't think those kind of deals are available anymore. That and the eaton trade might be the last big "hails" as prospects are more valuable than ever. That window is closed. So probably keep Fullmer.

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15 minutes ago, socaltiger said:

As for trading Fullmer we all want a deal similar to what the white sub got for Sale but I don't think those kind of deals are available anymore. That and the eaton trade might be the last big "hails" as prospects are more valuable than ever. That window is closed. So probably keep Fullmer.

Yeah, I tend to agree that fulmer would not bring back a sale type return exactly. Sale is a legit stud, and wasn’t making much money, and it was DD trading for him. 

Fulmer may have equivalent “value” given his cost effectiveness, but teams don’t give up stud prospects like Moncada for cost effectiveness. 

But that isn’t to say that Fulmer wouldn’t bring back a very good return. Maybe you get a B+ prospect and a couple Bs instead of an A prospect, and B, and a C. 

I do think that Avila would like to trade fulmer and further stock the system if he had his choice. But I’m confident that he won’t make a poor deal either, so it’s basically wait and see if teams come calling. 

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