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Mr.TaterSalad

2018 NFL Draft Thread

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11 hours ago, 84 Lives!!! said:

Ran an early Draft Mock at first-pick.com and ended up with:

1) Vita Vea

2) Will Hernandez

3) Royce Freeman

4) Kerryon Johnson

5) Fred Warner (OLB)

7) Rashann Gaulden (CB)

kerryon likely to be gone before round 4

 

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1 hour ago, Buddha said:

kerryon likely to be gone before round 4

 

Sure... but he fell in the mock so of course I grabbed him...

The other thing is, with such a deep draft for RB's, 1 or 2 of them might actually slip to the 4th... Penny would be a good candidate to slip there I'm thinking (a little bit slower than other backs)... rather than Kerryon. 

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16 hours ago, 84 Lives!!! said:

Ran an early Draft Mock at first-pick.com and ended up with:

1) Vita Vea

2) Will Hernandez

3) Royce Freeman

4) Kerryon Johnson

5) Fred Warner (OLB)

7) Rashann Gaulden (CB)

Got bored at work and did my own, traded down in the first for an extra second.  I don't have a clue who most of these people are...

 

Round 1 Pick 24 (CAR): Derrius Guice, RB, LSU (A)
Round 2 Pick 19: Taven Bryan, DT, Florida (A)
Round 2 Pick 23 (CAR): Jerome Baker, OLB, Ohio State (A-)
Round 3 Pick 18: Chad Thomas, DE, Miami (FL) (B)
Round 4 Pick 17: Deontay Burnett, WR, Southern California (A+)
Round 5 Pick 16: Isaiah Wynn, OG, Georgia (A+)
Round 7 Pick 19: Godwin Igwebuike, FS, Northwestern (A+)

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5 hours ago, drownwithyou said:

Got bored at work and did my own, traded down in the first for an extra second.  I don't have a clue who most of these people are...

 

Round 1 Pick 24 (CAR): Derrius Guice, RB, LSU (A)
Round 2 Pick 19: Taven Bryan, DT, Florida (A)
Round 2 Pick 23 (CAR): Jerome Baker, OLB, Ohio State (A-)
Round 3 Pick 18: Chad Thomas, DE, Miami (FL) (B)
Round 4 Pick 17: Deontay Burnett, WR, Southern California (A+)
Round 5 Pick 16: Isaiah Wynn, OG, Georgia (A+)
Round 7 Pick 19: Godwin Igwebuike, FS, Northwestern (A+)

Yeah they trade down! (Its my new pet peeve) 

 

And you think Carolina is giving up thier second round pick to go from 24 to 20? (seattle gave up a third to go from 31 to 26 last year, we got a 1, 5 and Many to go from 23 to 28 in 2015)

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Yeah they trade down! (Its my new pet peeve) 
 
And you think Carolina is giving up thier second round pick to go from 24 to 20? (seattle gave up a third to go from 31 to 26 last year, we got a 1, 5 and Many to go from 23 to 28 in 2015)

I certainly do not haha. I saw the offer and thought holy crap of course. As soon as I hit accept I realized I just messed up the already tenuous realism of my mock...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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First mock of the season and actually passed on the fast-rising Marcus Davenport of UTSA in-favor of Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, DE from Oklahoma. No trades made in this mock, I stood pat with what the Lions have. I think Sione Teuhema, the OLB who transferred from LSU to a D2 school is Southeast Louisiana has potential to be one of the best steals of the draft.

1st: Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, DE/Oklahoma

2nd: Kerryon Johnson, RB/Auburn

3rd: R.J. McIntosh, DT/Miami

4th: Sione Teuhema, OLB/EDGE/Southeast Louisiana

5th: D.J. Reed, CB/Kansas State

6th: Lions traded pick for Greg Robinson

7th: Coleman Shelton, C/Washington

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I think Nick Chubb is a bum.

I think the Lions are going to need depth players.  I think they move back at least once.  They could also get some picks for a player or two.

A sneaky good RB to watch out for is Josh Adams from ND.

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Wow, Rashaad Penny has been very impressive in the Senior Bowl.

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1 hour ago, cruzer1 said:

Wow, Rashaad Penny has been very impressive in the Senior Bowl.

He would be a great fit for the Lions. 

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14 hours ago, cruzer1 said:

I think Nick Chubb is a bum.

I think the Lions are going to need depth players.  I think they move back at least once.  They could also get some picks for a player or two.

A sneaky good RB to watch out for is Josh Adams from ND.

Targeting for "depth" player is dumb. About 80 percent of picks after abotu 50 or so stink and are out of the league after 3 years. 

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3 hours ago, Keepleyland2 said:

Targeting for "depth" player is dumb. About 80 percent of picks after abotu 50 or so stink and are out of the league after 3 years. 

This is a deep draft. Good defensive draft.

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12 hours ago, cruzer1 said:

This is a deep draft. Good defensive draft.

And yet, 97 percent of guys taken after about pick 50 will suck. 

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6 hours ago, Keepleyland2 said:

And yet, 97 percent of guys taken after about pick 50 will suck. 

Trading down to get extra picks makes sense here.

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1 hour ago, cruzer1 said:

Trading down to get extra picks makes sense here.

No it really doesn't. It makes sense because it sounds good, but in reality, whether its a strong or a weak draft the vast majority of players after pick 50 stink. Getting more of stinky players doesn't make you better. 

The whole trade down mantra is based on an outdated, Jimmy Johnson draft chart model. The draft and the game have changed dramtically since then. I'd rather take 2 good players than 58 stinky ones. 

I mean think of some of the massive trade backs in recent years, like the Rams. They got a ton back and really don't have much to show for it. Same for the Browns, where as the Falcons got Julio Jones. 

The whole trade back helps you win, draft grades. But in reality, when you look back you're better off taking the better player. 

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50 minutes ago, Keepleyland2 said:

No it really doesn't. It makes sense because it sounds good, but in reality, whether its a strong or a weak draft the vast majority of players after pick 50 stink. Getting more of stinky players doesn't make you better. 

The whole trade down mantra is based on an outdated, Jimmy Johnson draft chart model. The draft and the game have changed dramtically since then. I'd rather take 2 good players than 58 stinky ones. 

I mean think of some of the massive trade backs in recent years, like the Rams. They got a ton back and really don't have much to show for it. Same for the Browns, where as the Falcons got Julio Jones. 

The whole trade back helps you win, draft grades. But in reality, when you look back you're better off taking the better player. 

The Lions are not picking in the top 10.  They need more picks.  They need different defensive players.  They are changing from a one gap to a hodge podge of different defenses.  Look at the what the Patriots do.  They usually trade down, and trade into the next year.

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1 hour ago, Keepleyland2 said:

No it really doesn't. It makes sense because it sounds good, but in reality, whether its a strong or a weak draft the vast majority of players after pick 50 stink. Getting more of stinky players doesn't make you better. 

 

I suppose the question is what is the value difference between the average 4th of 5th round pick and the average UDFA signing?

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38 minutes ago, cruzer1 said:

The Lions are not picking in the top 10.  They need more picks.  They need different defensive players.  They are changing from a one gap to a hodge podge of different defenses.  Look at the what the Patriots do.  They usually trade down, and trade into the next year.

Again, more crappy players do not make a better team. It doesn't. 

And I wil look a the patriots. Of their starting 22. 11 have under four year experience. One is Van Noy. 2 are UDFA, one signed from buffalo's practice squad. One was a first round pick. 

That means 6 guys were drafted after the third round (three on the oline which is true for many teams). They have draft 28 players in the third or later in the last four drafts. Six out of 28.

Meanwhile the same criteria for the lions....6 out of 26 picks. 

Trading down really only works if you are picking up a first round pick for the next year. That is how they got cooks and they were aggressive with that. 

Beyond that, trading down only gives you more choices of crappy players. This is why I hate the "trade down" mantra. You're only getting more players that stink and losing out, usually, on a better player in the most important round. 

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28 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

I suppose the question is what is the value difference between the average 4th of 5th round pick and the average UDFA signing?

Slight if best. I'm not doing the math, but its reasonably assumed that more fourth round guys carve out a career than a UDFA. I'll admit that.

But, the vast majority will just be backups then gone within four years. So it doesn't make sense to me to lose out a better player in round 1 or 2 -- where far more make an impact and there are reasons a guy goes 21 and not 25 usually they are a better player -- for an extra lottery ticket in round 5. 

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But in reality, when you look back you're better off taking the better player. 


Elementary.

But they are all trying to pick the best players. The problem is, it is not an exact science. Thus, if there is a significant chance your pick is not going to pan out, it behooves you to have more picks to choose from.

If they get to pick 20 and don’t think there’s a difference maker on the board, fine. Trade the pick for a first next year and a third this year. Or whatever. If your odds are low with the talent on the board, improve them by getting more picks.

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32 minutes ago, Jason_R said:

 


Elementary.

But they are all trying to pick the best players. The problem is, it is not an exact science. Thus, if there is a significant chance your pick is not going to pan out, it behooves you to have more picks to choose from.

If they get to pick 20 and don’t think there’s a difference maker on the board, fine. Trade the pick for a first next year and a third this year. Or whatever. If your odds are low with the talent on the board, improve them by getting more picks.

 

Again, trading for a first is next year is a differrent convo. 

I hate the ole trade back a few spots and pick up a fourth. 

And having more picks really doesn't change your odds. You're just going to get more bad players and cost yourself a player that's X spots better in round 1, where there is a difference. 

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And having more picks really doesn't change your odds.

Uhh, no, but because a team can’t really change its odds of picking a solid player in the late rounds, that’s why a team might want more picks.

Unless your proposed strategy is to try to package your 2-7 (since everyone out of round 1 is a “bad player” anyway) for a 1. But there’s probably a reason that doesn’t happen.

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Speaking of Ricky Williams, a lot of people forget than Washington used some of those picks to trade up in the draft and draft Champ Bailey and Jon Jansen. Looking at the picks that were traded for Williams, the only player that appears to have been better was Lavar Arrington who was drafted with the Saints 1st round pick the following season. 

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a large majority if pro bowlers are first round picks.

that being said, depth is important in a sport like football where injuries occur so frequently.

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Honestly, it really boils down to who is available when you pick relative to the next best option(s).  If you value 8 players roughly the same, then you trade down 6 spots and add a pick.  If you highly value one guy over everyone else, you draft him rather than trade down.

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