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Kinsler to Angels for 2 Prospects

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1 hour ago, tiger337 said:

yeah, I know.  I just like to dream more realistically! I am hoping a couple of their pitchers become good starters. They really need to start adding some top position player prospects soon though.  

Oh, the system has so little legit power it is crazy.  Everywhere I look right now Avila is taking Singer with the #1 overall, and I get it that he could be a top-10 MLB pitcher someday, so the conflict is real.  

My dad saw Singer pitch a handful of times last year and he said last season the kid was better than Faedo.  Unfortunately, it makes me wonder about Faedo's future in the rotation--lol.

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1 minute ago, LooseGoose said:

Either that or it was the smart thing to do.     I fall on the smart thing to do side of the argument.   Kinsler has no place with the Tigers going forward.   Machado will equal or exceed what he produces this year, why wouldn't they make the deal?

I don’t think machado is remotely likely to equal or exceed kinsler. But that doesn’t really matter at all. 

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55 minutes ago, FloridaTigers said:

So ultimately, are the Illitch family interested in running this team at all? Is this just a temporary payroll shed for the rebuild or is this going to be a long-term thing?

No one here knows the true answer to this.  Time will tell.  Chris Illitch has said it's a rebuild, I choose to believe him until proven otherwise.

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Even though 2003 was a disaster It was my fav time as a fan.  Went to 50 games.  Don't ask me why.
 


Went to a lot of games 2003-2005, had access to tickets no one wanted thru my wife’s job. First base line just above the visiting dugout (upper level). Pretty much had the section to myself. No having to get up in middle of inning for people who couldn’t wait to get a beer, ride the merry go round, etc.

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4 minutes ago, Shelton said:

I don’t think machado is remotely likely to equal or exceed kinsler. But that doesn’t really matter at all. 

Our production at 2B vs Kinsler will be an interesting topic to re-visit.   I expect Kinsler to bounce back a bit with a new team and all but there's no disputing that he's on the downside of what's been a nice career.  

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4 minutes ago, mickeyb105 said:

Oh, the system has so little legit power it is crazy.  Everywhere I look right now Avila is taking Singer with the #1 overall, and I get it that he could be a top-10 MLB pitcher someday, so the conflict is real.  

My dad saw Singer pitch a handful of times last year and he said last season the kid was better than Faedo.  Unfortunately, it makes me wonder about Faedo's future in the rotation--lol.

Funny thing is that Dombrowski's philosophy, esp early in his Tiger tenure was stockpile pitching and trade for more established bats - I assume because he thought it was easier to project arms than hitters (even given the injury issue). The fly in the ointment is that you can't do much to showcase young starting pitchers for trade when you have a contending ball club - you can't call them up and play them in series here and there like you can a young hitter - the logistics don't work, and you are not sitting any effective starter for a showcase if you are in a pennant race. With a bad team you have a whole different situation - the strategy may be actually more useful now.

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4 hours ago, mickeyb105 said:

A pitching staff of aces and #2's keeps balls in the yard, speedy outfielders sew up the gaps and an IF with range closes holes.

Easy game for the 90s Braves, maybe that's what we can look forward to?

Boring.

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2 minutes ago, LooseGoose said:

Our production at 2B vs Kinsler will be an interesting topic to re-visit.   I expect Kinsler to bounce back a bit with a new team and all but there's no disputing that he's on the downside of what's been a nice career.  

He’s on the downside, sure. But I don’t think he’s falling off a cliff. Last year was a big drop from his 2016. But you could look at 2015 and think he was in decline and he came back and had a great 2016. I think 2017 was more a down year than a decline. I also expect him to bounce back. Maybe he’s a 2 win player. I don’t see machado being a 2 win player as a 2B. Maybe as a shortstop he would have more value. We will have a decent idea on whether machado can stick after this season when we see how his bat does. He will look a lot better as a SS. 

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17 minutes ago, Shelton said:

I don’t think machado is remotely likely to equal or exceed kinsler. But that doesn’t really matter at all. 

depends if you mean this year. Strictly on historical grounds, the list of middle infielders playing well on the 40 side of 30 is pretty short once you get past Vizquel. I don't think Kinsler's odds of being above replacement level in '18 are as good as even money. I suppose that is why I have no complaint about what we got back - no trade clause or no.

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18 minutes ago, LooseGoose said:

Either that or it was the smart thing to do.     I fall on the smart thing to do side of the argument.   Kinsler has no place with the Tigers going forward.   Machado will equal or exceed what he produces this year, why wouldn't they make the deal?

You think Machado will perform equal to Kinsler in 2018?  I don't think so.  Not even half.

 

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2 minutes ago, Shelton said:

He’s on the downside, sure. But I don’t think he’s falling off a cliff. Last year was a big drop from his 2016. But you could look at 2015 and think he was in decline and he came back and had a great 2016. I think 2017 was more a down year than a decline. I also expect him to bounce back. Maybe he’s a 2 win player. I don’t see machado being a 2 win player as a 2B. Maybe as a shortstop he would have more value. We will have a decent idea on whether machado can stick after this season when we see how his bat does. He will look a lot better as a SS. 

Agreed but as you know he's blocked there for now.

I know I'm probably being overly optimistic but as I've said before elsewhere I was tiring of the old core teasing us and getting no where recently.   I'm ready to root for some kids, I recall with fondness watching the various pieces of the 80's teams come together.   Hopefully we'll have some fun over the next few years seeing new stars and a new core emerge.

 

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1 minute ago, Oblong said:

You think Machado will perform equal to Kinsler in 2018?  I don't think so.  Not even half.

I'll change it to "Tigers2B" since Machado may get swept out.  IF you agree to that I'll wager you a beverage of your choice at a late Sept Game next year?

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yeah but those guys in the early 80's were good.

I also remember the various peaces in 2001 and 2002 NOT coming together... Infantiago... Cedeno.... Alex Sanchez..  

 

 

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1 minute ago, Oblong said:

yeah but those guys in the early 80's were good.

I also remember the various peaces in 2001 and 2002 NOT coming together... Infantiago... Cedeno.... Alex Sanchez..  

Yep, but the optimist in me wins.    We'll see, as I said I'm ready for something new and it seems a complete tear down is the something new.

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I also do not think Machado will be as good as Kinsler offensively or defensively.  I believe Machado is best used as a utility guy, but it looks like he'll get his chance to prove me wrong.  

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25 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

depends if you mean this year. Strictly on historical grounds, the list of middle infielders playing well on the 40 side of 30 is pretty short once you get past Vizquel. I don't think Kinsler's odds of being above replacement level in '18 are as good as even money. I suppose that is why I have no complaint about what we got back - no trade clause or no.

Yes, I meant this year. Historical trends are fine in aggregate I guess, but I don’t know how much that can be relied on for an inidivual player. If i had to guess, the guys in the mid to late 30s that sucked were not as good as Ian has been in his early to mid 30s. 

You think it’s more likely he is below replacement than above?

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28 minutes ago, LooseGoose said:

Agreed but as you know he's blocked there for now.

I know I'm probably being overly optimistic but as I've said before elsewhere I was tiring of the old core teasing us and getting no where recently.   I'm ready to root for some kids, I recall with fondness watching the various pieces of the 80's teams come together.   Hopefully we'll have some fun over the next few years seeing new stars and a new core emerge.

 

Yes, of course he is blocked now. He may end up with a 680 ops or something this year playing mostly 2b. If he can do that, then slide him over to SS in 2019 after we let Iglesias walk and he becomes a valuable player to have.  It’s not like we have any ss prospects in the minors that are close. Maybe lugo does enough in aaa this year that he hits enough to be a decent 2b. 

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11 minutes ago, Shelton said:

Yes, I meant this year. Historical trends are fine in aggregate I guess, but I don’t know how much that can be relied on for an inidivual player. If i had to guess, the guys in the mid to late 30s that sucked were not as good as Ian has been in his early to mid 30s. 

You think it’s more likely he is below replacement than above?

Well, just to be brutally objective, what is the relative percentage of guys who get worse from year 34 to yr 35 then get better again at 36 as compared to just continuing to get worse? 5%, 10%? It's a small number and it's dominated by guys who names tend to be in HOF discussions, one of hallmarks of which is guys who were also very good very young. Ian has had a nice career but he was not a star at a young age - just doesn't strike me as the profile to play into his late 30s successfully.

Now Ortiz is a good counterexample - so I'm not saying it doesn't happen, just that I don't consider it an even money chance.

(note this is position players only - pitchers can and do play to a higher average age in the MLB than hitters). 

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2 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

 

Well, just to be brutally objective, what is the relative percentage of guys who get worse from year 34 to yr 35 then get better again at 36 as compared to just continuing to get worse? 5%, 10%? It's a small number and it's dominated by guys who names tend to be in HOF discussions, one of hallmarks of which is guys who were also very good very young. Ian has had a nice career but he was not a star at a young age - just doesn't strike me as the profile to play into his late 30s successfully.

He was six WAR for three years in a row and then he dropped all the way down to two WAR.  That is more than a typical drop even for 34 to 35 years old.  Another drop down to zero WAR would be six WAR drop in a two-year span.  That seems pretty dramatic to me.  I think there is a better chance of him being a 2-3 WAR player than dropping down to replacement.  

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5 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

 

Well, just to be brutally objective, what is the relative percentage of guys who get worse from year 34 to yr 35 then get better again at 36 as compared to just continuing to get worse? 5%, 10%? It's a small number and it's dominated by guys who names tend to be in HOF discussions, one of hallmarks of which is guys who were also very good very young. Ian has had a nice career but he was not a star at a young age - just doesn't strike me as the profile to play into his late 30s successfully.

(note this is position players only - pitchers can and do play to a higher average age in the MLB than hitters)

How many guys get worse from 32 to 33 but bounce back to a great year at 34?

he doesn’t need to play into his late 30s. He just needs to bounce back to a fraction of his age 34 performance at 36. 

I’m mostly just responding to the idea of him being replacement level. 

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7 minutes ago, Shelton said:

How many guys get worse from 32 to 33 but bounce back to a great year at 34?

he doesn’t need to play into his late 30s. He just needs to bounce back to a fraction of his age 34 performance at 36. 

I’m mostly just responding to the idea of him being replacement level. 

If you look at 2012, he was having a decent season as late as August but  had a very bad last few  wks of the season.  From a distance, I'd argue a nagging late season sub-DL physical issue was likely. Conversely in 2017 he only had one month of the season with an OPS above 752 and two months when he kept his average over 250 - so to me that seems like a more general decline.

As to replacement - that is just a back of envelop extrapolation of WAR drop from '16 to '17. Yeah, that could be harsh.

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16 minutes ago, Shelton said:

Found this article on ian’s Fangraphs page.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/ian-kinsler-is-a-big-upgrade-for-a-minor-price/

sounds like his underlying skills didn’t really decline last year. 

So what's under the cover of expected wOBA that explains why his actual wOBA is the lowest of his career last season?

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5 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

So what's under the cover of expected wOBA that explains why his actual wOBA is the lowest of his career last season?

I think it’s based on batted ball data and hit probability and things like that. Sometimes you just get “unlucky” over the course of a season. 

For example, we know that a lot times doubles become home runs and home runs become doubles based on a slight change in direction or a fraction of a degree in launch angle. 

We also know that batting average does not “stabilize” within a single season. 

I haven’t looked at the specifics of kinsler’s output to really know. 

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13 minutes ago, Shelton said:

We also know that batting average does not “stabilize” within a single season. 

 

I might argue that it's not only that BA that doesn't stabilize, it is also the player. Statistically it make no difference to the numbers, but in terms of player evaluation it does. Yes - a player can have an overall lucky or unlucky year BaBIP wise and that differential may not equilibrate within a single season. but that is only one source of variance among many. It's also true that individual players do not perform uniformly over various time scales. In fact, one measure of uniformity in performance level a player actual brings is called the Hall of Fame.....:D

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